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  1. Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
    Autor*in: Altig, Dave; Baker, Scott Brent; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Bunn, Phil; Chen, Scarlet; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Mizen, Paul; Parker, Nicholas; Renault, Thomas; Smietanka, Pawel; Thwaites, Greg
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the United States and the UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty,... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 253
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    keine Fernleihe

     

    We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the United States and the UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and disagreement among professional forecasters about future gross domestic product growth. Three results emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most indicators reach their highest values on record. Second, peak amplitudes differ greatly-from an 80 percent rise (relative to January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 to a 20-fold rise in forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: implied volatility rose rapidly from late February and peaked in mid-March, falling back by late March as stock prices began to recover. In contrast, broader measures of uncertainty peaked later and then plateaued, as job losses mounted, highlighting the difference in uncertainty measures between Wall Street and Main Street.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/228261
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2020, 9 (July 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Pandemic-era uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street
    Autor*in: Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Davis, Steven J.; Parker, Nicholas; Altig, David; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty... mehr

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    DS 253
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    We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this sense, decision makers in nonfinancial businesses share some of the optimism that seems manifest in equity markets. Third, and despite the positive shift in tail risks, overall uncertainty continues to substantially dampen capital spending plans, pointing to a source of weak growth in demand and in potential gross domestic product.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/244305
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2021,2 (January 2021)
    Schlagworte: business expectations; uncertainty; subjective forecast distributions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 10 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Economic uncertainty before and during the Covid-19 pandemic
    Autor*in: Altig, Dave; Baker, Scott; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Bunn, Philip; Chen, Scarlet; Davis, Steven J.; Leather, Julia; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Mizen, Paul; Parker, Nicholas; Renault, Thomas; Smietanka, Pawel; Thwaites, Greg
    Erschienen: June 2020
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 876
    Schlagworte: Forward-looking uncertainty measures; volatility; Covid-19; coronavirus
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Pandemic-era uncertainty
    Autor*in: Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Barrero, Jose Maria; Davis, Steven J.; Altig, David; Bloom, Nicholas
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 4
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    We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the pandemic and then fell about half-way back to pre-pandemic levels by mid 2021. Second, and in contrast, the 1-month VIX, a Twitter-based Economic Uncertainty Index, and macro forecaster disagreement all rose sharply in reaction to the pandemic but retrenched almost completely by mid 2021. Third, Categorical Policy Uncertainty Indexes highlight the changing sources of uncertainty - from healthcare and fiscal policy uncertainty in spring 2020 to elevated uncertainty around monetary policy and national security as of March 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but shifted rapidly to the upside from fall 2020 onwards. Perceived upside uncertainty remains highly elevated as of early 2022. Fifth, our survey evidence suggests that elevated uncertainty is exerting only mild restraint on capital investment plans for 2022 and 2023, perhaps because perceived risks are so skewed to the upside.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/263445
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15229
    Schlagworte: business expectations; uncertainty; subjective forecast distributions; capital investments; COVID-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The Shift to Remote Work Lessens Wage-Growth Pressures
    Autor*in: Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Altig, David
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of U.S. employers, and we develop novel survey data to quantify its force. Our data imply a cumulative wage-growth moderation of 2.0 percentage points over two years. This moderation offsets more than half the real-wage catchup effect that Blanchard (2022) highlights in his analysis of near-term inflation pressures. The amenity-values gains associated with the recent rise of remote work also lower labor's share of national income by 1.1 percentage points. In addition, the "unexpected compression" of wages since early 2020 (Autor and Dube, 2022) is partly explained by the same amenity-value effect, which operates differentially across the earnings distribution

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30197
    Schlagworte: Telearbeit; Lohnbildung; Lohnniveau; Lohnquote; USA; Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; General
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  6. The shift to remote work lessens wage-growth pressures
    Autor*in: Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 4
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of U.S. employers, and we develop novel survey data to quantify its force. Our data imply a cumulative wage-growth moderation of 2.0 percentage points over two years. This moderation offsets more than half the real-wage catchup effect that Blanchard (2022) highlights in his analysis of near- term inflation pressures. The amenity-values gains associated with the recent rise of remote work also lower labor's share of national income by 1.1 percentage points. In addition, the "unexpected compression" of wages since early 2020 (Autor and Dube, 2022) is partly explained by the same amenity-value effect, which operates differentially across the earnings distribution.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/263601
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15385
    Schlagworte: Telearbeit; Lohnbildung; Lohnniveau; Lohnquote; USA; remote work; amenity value; wage growth; inflation dynamics; recession risk; business expectations; labor's share of national income; wage compression
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The shift to remote work lessens wage-growth pressures
    Autor*in: Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 253
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of US employers, and we develop novel survey data to quantify its force. Our data imply a cumulative wage-growth moderation of 2.0 percentage points over two years. This moderation offsets more than half the real-wage catchup effect that Blanchard (2022) highlights in his analysis of near-term inflation pressures. The amenity-values gains associated with the recent rise of remote work also lower labor's share of national income by 1.1 percentage points. In addition, the "unexpected compression" of wages since early 2020 (Autor and Dube, 2022) is partly explained by the same amenity-value effect, which operates differentially across the earnings distribution.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/270450
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2022, 7 (July 2022)
    Schlagworte: Telearbeit; Lohnbildung; Lohnniveau; Lohnquote; USA; remote work; amenity value; wage growth; inflation dynamics; recession risk; business expectations; labor's share of national income; wage compression
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The shift to remote work lessens wage-growth pressures
    Autor*in: Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Altig, David
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), Stanford, CA

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    Schriftenreihe: Auch erschienen als: NBER working paper series no. 30197
    Working paper / Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) ; no. 22, 24 (July, 2022)
    Schlagworte: Telearbeit; Lohnbildung; Lohnniveau; Lohnquote; USA; Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; General; remote work; amenity value; wage growth; inflation dynamics; recession risk; business expectations; labor's share of national income; wage compression
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Surveying business uncertainty
    Autor*in: Altig, David; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Parker, Nicholas
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    We develop a new monthly panel survey of business executives and a new question design that elicits subjective probability distributions over own-firm outcomes at a one-year lookahead horizon. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) began in 2014... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 253
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We develop a new monthly panel survey of business executives and a new question design that elicits subjective probability distributions over own-firm outcomes at a one-year lookahead horizon. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) began in 2014 and now covers 1,500 firms drawn from all 50 states, every major industry in the nonfarm private sector, and a full range of firm sizes. We use SBU data to measure expected future outcomes for the growth of sales, employment, and investment for each firm and the uncertainty surrounding those expectations. Mean expectations are highly predictive of realized growth rates in the firm-level data, and subjective uncertainty is highly predictive of absolute forecast errors. We also use the SBU data to produce a Business Expectations Index (first moment) and a Business Uncertainty Index (second moment) for the U.S. economy. In Granger causality tests, the Business Expectations Index has statistically significant predictive power for a range of prominent business cycle indicators. The SBU also includes special questions that elicit additional information, including the perceived effects of specific government policy developments on the firm's decisions and outcomes.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/200551
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2019, 13 (June 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten), Illustrationen