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  1. The Bank of Canada's "horse race" of alternative monetary policy frameworks: some interim results from model simulations
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    Since 1991, the Bank of Canada has had an inflation‐targeting (IT) framework established by a joint agreement between the Bank and the Government of Canada. The framework is reviewed every five years as part of the process for renewing the... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 201
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    Since 1991, the Bank of Canada has had an inflation‐targeting (IT) framework established by a joint agreement between the Bank and the Government of Canada. The framework is reviewed every five years as part of the process for renewing the inflation‐control agreement. This discussion paper summarizes some interim results from Bank staff analysis done for the August 2020 workshop, "Towards the 2021 Renewal of the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Framework." The Bank will publish updated analysis later in 2021. The core of the current framework-the 2 percent inflation target-has remained unchanged since 1995. This fact reflects its success. Well‐anchored inflation expectations contribute to macroeconomic stability while leaving monetary policy with greater flexibility. The 2021 renewal highlights two key challenges facing Canadian monetary policy: (1) the low neutral rate of interest; and (2) the low interest rates associated with a low neutral rate that may encourage excessive risk taking and debt accumulation To address these challenges, Bank staff are running a "horse race" of alternative monetary policy frameworks (i.e., alternatives to the 2 percent IT framework). Their work evaluates these alternatives using a broad range of qualitative and quantitative criteria and focuses on the macroeconomic performance of the alternative frameworks. The interim results we report in this discussion paper suggest overall that no framework dominates on all margins. As a result, the ranking depends on the relative weight placed on different criteria.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251026
    Schriftenreihe: Staff discussion paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 13
    Schlagworte: Central bank research; Economic models; Inflation targets; Monetary policy framework; Monetary policy; Monetary policy transmission
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Monetary policy under uncertainty
    practice versus theory
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa, Ontario, Canada]

    For central banks, conducting policy in an environment of uncertainty is a daily fact of life. This uncertainty can take many forms, ranging from incomplete knowledge of the correct economic model and data to future economic and geopolitical events... mehr

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 201 (2017,13)
    keine Fernleihe

     

    For central banks, conducting policy in an environment of uncertainty is a daily fact of life. This uncertainty can take many forms, ranging from incomplete knowledge of the correct economic model and data to future economic and geopolitical events whose precise magnitudes and effects cannot be known with certainty. The objective of this paper is to summarize and compare the main results that have emerged in the literature on optimal monetary policy under uncertainty with actual central bank behaviour. To this end, three examples are studied in which uncertainty played a significant role in the Bank of Canada's policy decision, to see how closely they align with the predictions from the literature. Three principles emerge from this analysis. First, some circumstances - such as when the policy rate is at risk of being constrained by the effective lower bound - should lead the central bank to be more pre-emptive in moving interest rates, whereas others can rationalize more of a wait-and-see approach. In the latter case, the key challenge is finding the right balance between waiting for additional information and not falling behind the curve. Second, the starting-point level of inflation can matter for how accommodative or restrictive policy is relative to the same situation without uncertainty, if there are thresholds in the central bank's preferences associated with specific ranges for the target variable, such as the risk of inflation falling outside of the inflation control range. Third, policy decisions should be disciplined, where possible, by formal modelling and simulation exercises in order to support robustness and consistency in decision making over time. The paper concludes with a set of suggested areas for future research.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/200449
    Schriftenreihe: Staff discussion paper / Bank of Canada ; 2017, 13 (November 2017)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen