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  1. An assessment of presumptive tax in Uganda
    evaluating the 2020 reform and four alternative reform scenarios using UGAMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for Uganda
    Autor*in: Waiswa, Ronald; Lastunen, Jesse; Wright, Gemma; Noble, Michael; Ayo, Joseph Okello; Nalukwago, Milly Isingoma; Barugahara, Tina Kaidu; Kavuma, Susan Namirembe; Arinaitwe, Isaac; Mwesigye, Martin; Asiimwe, Wilson; Rattenhuber, Pia
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    Presumptive tax, a final tax on business income, was introduced in Uganda in 1997. The latest reform to the regime in July 2020 sought to make the system more progressive, simpler and fairer to small firms. In this work, we evaluate the reform,... mehr

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    Presumptive tax, a final tax on business income, was introduced in Uganda in 1997. The latest reform to the regime in July 2020 sought to make the system more progressive, simpler and fairer to small firms. In this work, we evaluate the reform, focusing on its revenue implications based on simulations using UGAMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for Uganda. Our findings suggest that, assuming full compliance, the reform reduces tax revenue potential by between 48-72 per cent from the previous rules. Interviews with staff at the Uganda Revenue Authority point to further challenges with the new rules, including slow implementation, ineffective enforcement and enduring complexity. To address these concerns, we modelled a number of hypothetical reform scenarios, including a 1 per cent and 1.5 per cent flat tax regimes for small businesses with turnover between UGX10-150 million. A low flat tax rate would be a major improvement to the existing presumptive tax regime, as it satisfies the calls for further simplification, is estimated to generate more short-term revenue than the current regime based on the modelling, and has realistic potential to attract more presumptive taxpayers over time.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789292671037
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248377
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2021, 163
    Schlagworte: presumptive tax; tax administration; small businesses; tax compliance; impact evaluation; microsimulation modelling
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The mitigating role of tax and benefit rescue packages for poverty and inequality in Africa amid the COVID-19 pandemic
    Autor*in: Lastunen, Jesse; Rattenhuber, Pia; Adu-Ababio, Kwabena; Gasior, Katrin; Jara, H. Xavier; Jouste, Maria; McLennan, David; Nichelatti, Enrico; Oliveira, Rodrigo Carvalho; Pirttilä, Jukka; Richiardi, Matteo; Wright, Gemma
    Erschienen: October 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    This paper analyses the distributional effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related tax-benefit measures in 2020 in a cross-country comparative perspective for five African countries: Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. We first estimate... mehr

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    This paper analyses the distributional effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related tax-benefit measures in 2020 in a cross-country comparative perspective for five African countries: Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. We first estimate the impact of the crisis on disposable incomes, how effects vary across the income distribution, and in how far tax-benefit policies stabilized earnings losses. We then evaluate the impact on income-based poverty and inequality and the contribution of discretionary tax-benefit policies in alleviating the shock. Our analysis shows modest increases in headcount poverty rates and inequality, and somewhat larger effects on the poverty gap due to lower relative earnings losses of the poor population at the early stage of the pandemic analysed here. We find very limited stabilizing power of tax-benefit policies overall and automatic stabilizers in particular. This illustrates gaps in coverage for the large informal sector and a general lack of income-related means-tested benefits. Except for the Emergency Social Cash Transfer in Zambia, discretionary tax-benefit policies adopted in response to COVID-19 have had limited impact. Pausing a large school feeding programme in Ghana during lockdown has in turn put additional pressure on households with school-age children.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292670887
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248362
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2021, 148
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; income distribution; poverty; inequality; Africa
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data
    an application to Viet Nam
    Autor*in: Lastunen, Jesse; Richiardi, Matteo
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level and relate them to the expected... mehr

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    We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level and relate them to the expected duration of the crisis for each industry, under the assumption that the main shocks to financial prices in recent months have come from COVID-19. Starting from the latest information available on the size of the shock at the industry level, often a few months old, we predict the ensuing recovery trajectories using the most recent financial data available, monitoring how subsequent waves of infections and information about new vaccines have impacted expectations about the future. We apply our method to Viet Nam, one of the most open economies in the world, and obtain predictions that are close to (though more optimistic than) later projections by the International Monetary Fund and other international forecasters. Our claim is that this better-than-expected performance was visible in stock market data early on but was largely missed by conventional methods. The Vietnamese application hence supports the validity of our method, showing that financial information can be used to accurately nowcast recovery paths following a large economic shock such as a global pandemic.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292670245
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/243410
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2021, 84
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; pandemic; economic recovery; nowcasting; financial markets; Viet Nam
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Tax-benefit microsimulation model in Rwanda
    a feasibility study
    Autor*in: Hakizimana, Naphtal; Karangwa, John; Lastunen, Jesse; Nsabimana, Aimable; Murasi, Innocente; Niyigena, Lucie; Noble, Michael; Wright, Gemma
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    This paper assesses the feasibility of developing a tax and benefit microsimulation model in Rwanda. Tax-benefit microsimulation can be used to explore ways in which national development goals can be achieved in a cost-effective manner, and to assess... mehr

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    This paper assesses the feasibility of developing a tax and benefit microsimulation model in Rwanda. Tax-benefit microsimulation can be used to explore ways in which national development goals can be achieved in a cost-effective manner, and to assess the distributional effects of more comprehensive social security arrangements. The paper presents an account of Rwanda's tax and benefit policies as well as a possible underpinning dataset-the Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey-for a tax-benefit microsimulation model, concluding that developing such a model for Rwanda would be feasible.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292672034
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/267821
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2022, 72
    Schlagworte: tax; benefit; revenue; microsimulation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The role of social protection and tax policies in cushioning crisis impacts on income and poverty in low- and middle-income countries
    a rapid scoping review
    Autor*in: Oliveira, Rodrigo Carvalho; Lastunen, Jesse; Rattenhuber, Pia; Samarin, Melissa; Shahir, Adnan
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries enacted tax and social protection measures to help mitigate the economic hardship faced by individuals and households. This experience underscores the need to better understand the impact of... mehr

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    In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries enacted tax and social protection measures to help mitigate the economic hardship faced by individuals and households. This experience underscores the need to better understand the impact of such programmes on incomes and poverty during crises, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where they are most needed. This paper reviews existing empirical literature on the subject, conducting a scoping review on quantitative studies published between 2000 and 2022. Following a structured selection approach, we identify 38 studies about the role of social protection and taxation in LMICs during periods of crisis. The results reveal that LMICs often enact both vertical and horizontal expansions of existing unconditional cash transfer schemes during crises, although the applications vary by geography. Our research also suggests a sharp increase in recent studies because of the COVID-19 pandemic, and a large variety of methods used to study the subject. In terms of effects, social protection can help cushion households against crises, but the effect size depends on the policy adopted, country context, and type of crisis. The minimal empirical evidence about tax policy studies do not enable us to draw conclusions.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292673147
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283702
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2023, 6
    Schlagworte: social protection; taxation; crises; developing countries
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Performance of tax-benefit systems amid COVID-19 crises in sub-Saharan Africa
    a comparative perspective
    Autor*in: Lastunen, Jesse; Shahir, Adnan; Rattenhuber, Pia; Adu-Ababio, Kwabena; Oliveira, Rodrigo Carvalho
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    We examine the distributional effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated tax-benefit measures in seven sub-Saharan African countries, focusing on the onset of the crisis. We evaluate impacts on disposable incomes, considering variations across... mehr

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    We examine the distributional effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated tax-benefit measures in seven sub-Saharan African countries, focusing on the onset of the crisis. We evaluate impacts on disposable incomes, considering variations across income groups; assess the effectiveness of tax-benefit policies in mitigating income losses; and analyse the influence of these measures on income-based poverty and inequality. We find notable reductions in disposable incomes, concentrated among higher-income households, and moderate increases in headcount poverty rates and poverty gaps. The study highlights the low effectiveness of pre-existing tax-benefit policies, with coverage gaps for the informal sector and a lack of income-dependent means-tested benefits. Discretionary taxbenefit policies in Mozambique and Zambia cushioned the shock for low-income households to a small extent. Conversely, school closures in Ethiopia and Ghana suppressed the provision of school meals, adding strain to households with school-age children.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292674380
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283826
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2023, 130
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; income distribution; poverty; inequality; Africa
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Addressing poverty and inequality in Viet Nam during the COVID-19 pandemic
    an examination of the alleviating impact of tax and benefit measures
    Autor*in: Mahieu, Antoine de; Lastunen, Jesse
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    This paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related tax-benefit measures in Viet Nam. The focus is on the initial phase of the crisis in 2020. The study delves into how the pandemic affected disposable incomes, examining the... mehr

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    This paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related tax-benefit measures in Viet Nam. The focus is on the initial phase of the crisis in 2020. The study delves into how the pandemic affected disposable incomes, examining the differences across the income distribution and impacts on measures of poverty and inequality. The paper also evaluates the effectiveness of tax-benefit policies in reducing income losses caused by the pandemic, covering both the automatic stabilization of the pre-existing tax-benefit system and discretionary policy measures adopted in response to the crisis. The findings suggestthat disposable incomes decreased by nearly 2.25 per cent on average, with the most pronounced effect experienced by higher-income households. Additionally, the estimates point to moderate increases in both the headcount poverty rate and the extent of poverty, as measured by the poverty gap. Automatic stabilizers had a limited effect in cushioning the income shock. The discretionary social protection measures, however, halved the pandemic-induced rise in the national poverty rate and fully reversed income losses for the poorest income quartile.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292674281
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    hdl: 10419/283816
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2023, 120
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; income distribution; poverty; inequality; Viet Nam
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Rwanda
    RWAMOD v1.0 : 2017-2022
    Autor*in: Mahieu, Antoine de; Mukangango, Jeannette; Harerimana, Theogene; Lastunen, Jesse; Hakizimana, Naphtal; Karangwa, John; Nsabimana, Aimable; Niyigena, Lucie; Noble, Michael; Wright, Gemma
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: SOUTHMOD country report
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten)
  9. Microsimulation of tax-benefit systems in the Global South
    a comparative assessment
    Autor*in: Lastunen, Jesse; Mahieu, Antoine de; Gasior, Katrin; Jara, H. Xavier; Pirttilä, Jukka
    Erschienen: May 2024
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    This paper analyses the effectiveness of tax-benefit systems in reducing poverty and inequality across 13 countries in the Global South. Using national survey data and tax-benefit microsimulation models from the SOUTHMOD project, we provide a... mehr

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    This paper analyses the effectiveness of tax-benefit systems in reducing poverty and inequality across 13 countries in the Global South. Using national survey data and tax-benefit microsimulation models from the SOUTHMOD project, we provide a cross-country perspective on the redistributive impact of fiscal policies. Our analysis involves decomposing the sources of disposable income across the income distribution and estimating the contributions of different policy instruments to poverty and inequality. Additionally, we assess gender disparities in outcomes, quantify the distributional effects of recent policy changes, and simulate two budgetneutral tax-benefit reforms, focusing on their targeting efficiency and effects on work incentives. Studying the variability of these effects across countries illustrates how better policy design can improve welfare outcomes.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292674939
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    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2024, 35
    Schlagworte: tax-benefit systems; microsimulation; poverty; inequality; social protection; gender; work incentives
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Does the adoption of peer-to-government mobile payments improve tax revenue mobilization in developing countries?
    Autor*in: Wandaogo, Abdoul-Akim; Sawadogo, Fayçal; Lastunen, Jesse
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    Developing countries need to raise sufficient tax revenue to finance development. Revenue mobilization is often hampered by limited tax compliance, weak institutions, and technical problems with tax collection. One solution to these challenges is... mehr

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    Developing countries need to raise sufficient tax revenue to finance development. Revenue mobilization is often hampered by limited tax compliance, weak institutions, and technical problems with tax collection. One solution to these challenges is person-to-government (P2G) mobile phone payments, adopted in a number of developing countries since the early 2000s. This study assesses the causal effect of P2G adoption on tax revenue using propensity score matching. According to the matching estimates, countries that adopt P2G services experience a 1.2-1.3 percentage point boost in direct tax revenue as a share of GDP. P2G adoption increases revenue from both corporate and personal income taxes, with larger effects on the latter. The results remain robust to matching quality tests and alternative estimation methods, including function control, two-stage least squares, and system generalized method of moments. The average treatment effects are largest among lower-middle-income countries and countries characterized by limited tax compliance and corruption control, and by low levels of urbanization and domestic credit to the private sector. The findings suggest that developing countries, particularly those with poor institutions and low levels of financial inclusion, should promote the adoption and use of mobile money services for tax transactions.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292671495
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    hdl: 10419/259374
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2022, 18
    Schlagworte: mobile money; P2G; direct tax revenue; propensity score matching; developing countries
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Evaluating the impact of the 2023-2024 personal income tax reform in Rwanda
    an analysis using tax-benefit microsimulation modelling
    Autor*in: Mahieu, Antoine de; Lastunen, Jesse; Mukangango, Jeannette; Harerimana, Theogene
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    Establishing an equitable and efficient tax system is essential for reducing poverty, combating inequality, and fostering sustainable economic growth. Rwanda's government has recognized this and implemented significant changes to the personal income... mehr

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    Establishing an equitable and efficient tax system is essential for reducing poverty, combating inequality, and fostering sustainable economic growth. Rwanda's government has recognized this and implemented significant changes to the personal income tax schedule for 2023 and 2024 as part of broader tax reforms set forth in its Medium-Term Revenue Strategy. This study examines the fiscal and distributional effects of the personal income tax changes, employing a newly-created tax-benefit microsimulation model for Rwanda. Specifically, we compare the reform to a business-as-usual scenario with the previous income tax regime. The analysis shows that the reform enhances the disposable income of many workers, albeit at the expense of reduced government revenue. At the population level, the reform predominantly benefits the highest income deciles, who constitute the majority of income taxpayers in Rwanda. The lowest deciles, for the most part, remain unaffected by the changes.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292673819
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    hdl: 10419/283769
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2023, 73
    Schlagworte: income tax; poverty; inequality; Rwanda; microsimulation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten), Illustrationen