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  1. Confidence, consensus and aggregation
    Autor*in: Hill, Brian
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  SSRN, [S.l.]

    This paper develops and defends a new approach to belief aggregation, involving confidence in beliefs. It is characterised by a variant of the Pareto condition that enjoins respecting consensuses borne of compromise. Confidence aggregation recoups... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper develops and defends a new approach to belief aggregation, involving confidence in beliefs. It is characterised by a variant of the Pareto condition that enjoins respecting consensuses borne of compromise. Confidence aggregation recoups standard probability aggregation rules, such as linear pooling, as special cases, whilst avoiding the spurious unanimity issues that have plagued such rules. Moreover, it generates a new family of probability aggregation rules that can faithfully accommodate within-person expertise diversity, hence resolving a longstanding challenge. Confidence aggregation also outperforms linear aggregation: the group beliefs it provides are closer to the truth, in expectation. Finally, confidence aggregation is dynamically rational: it commutes with update

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: HEC Paris Research Paper
    Schlagworte: Belief aggregation; confidence in beliefs; Pareto principle; linearpooling; spurious unanimity; expertise; consensus
    Weitere Schlagworte: Array
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (76 p)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments March 13, 2023 erstellt
  2. Climate change assessments
    confidence, probability and decision
    Autor*in: Bradley, Richard; Helgeson, Casey; Hill, Brian
    Erschienen: January 28, 2016
    Verlag:  HEC, Paris

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions?... mehr

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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC's novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: HEC Paris Research Paper ; no. ECO/SCD-2016-1131
    Schlagworte: Klimaschutz; Internationale Organisation; Berichtswesen; Entscheidung
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Risk versus ambiguity and international security design
    Autor*in: Hill, Brian; Michalski, Tomasz
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  HEC, Paris

    We study portfolio allocation and characterize contracts issued by firms in the international financial market when investors exhibit ambiguity aversion and perceive ambiguity in assets issued in foreign locations. Increases in the variance of their... mehr

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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We study portfolio allocation and characterize contracts issued by firms in the international financial market when investors exhibit ambiguity aversion and perceive ambiguity in assets issued in foreign locations. Increases in the variance of their risky production process cause firms to issue assets with a higher variable payment (equity). Hikes in investors' perceived ambiguity have the opposite effect, and lead to less risk-sharing. Entrepreneurs from capital-scarce countries finance themselves relatively more through debt than equity. They are thus exposed to higher volatility per unit of consumption. The expected returns on capital invested in capital-scarce countries may also be lower. Such results do not hold in the absence of ambiguity, that is, when investors only perceive risk. New facts uncovered from cross-country firm-level data are consistent with our model

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Französisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: HEC Paris Research Paper ; ECO/SCD-2014-1032
    Schlagworte: Risikoaversion; Kapitalmobilität; Internationaler Finanzmarkt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (47 S.)
  4. Incomplete preferences and confidence
    Autor*in: Hill, Brian
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  HEC, Paris

    A theory of incomplete preferences under uncertainty is proposed, according to which a decision maker's preferences are indeterminate if and only if her confidence in the relevant beliefs does not match up to the stakes involved in the decision. We... mehr

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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    A theory of incomplete preferences under uncertainty is proposed, according to which a decision maker's preferences are indeterminate if and only if her confidence in the relevant beliefs does not match up to the stakes involved in the decision. We use the model of confidence in beliefs introduced in Hill (2013), and axiomatise a class of models, differing from each other in the appropriate notion of stakes. Comparative statics analysis can distinguish the decision maker's confidence from her attitude to choosing in the absence of confidence. The model naturally suggests two possible strategies for completing preferences, and hence for choosing in the presence of incompleteness. One strategy respects confidence – it relies only on beliefs in which the decision maker has sufficient confidence given the stakes – whereas the other goes on hunches – it relies on all beliefs, no matter how little confidence the decision maker has in them. Axiomatic characterizations are given for each of the strategies. Finally, we consider the consequences of the model in markets, where indeterminacy of preference translates into refusal to trade. The incorporation of confidence adds an extra friction, beyond the standard implications of non-expected utility models for Pareto optima

     
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    Sprache: Französisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: HEC Paris Research Paper ; ECO/SCD-2014-1051
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (54 S.)
  5. Confidence as a source of deferral
    Autor*in: Hill, Brian
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  HEC, Paris

    One apparent reason for deferring a decision – abstaining from choosing, leaving the decision open to be taken by someone else, one’s later self, or nature – is for lack of sufficient confidence in the relevant beliefs. This paper develops an... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    One apparent reason for deferring a decision – abstaining from choosing, leaving the decision open to be taken by someone else, one’s later self, or nature – is for lack of sufficient confidence in the relevant beliefs. This paper develops an axiomatic theory of decision in situations where a costly deferral option is available that captures this source of deferral. Drawing on it, a preliminary behavioural comparison with other accounts of deferral, such as those based on information asymmetry, is undertaken, and a simple multi-factor model of deferral – involving both confidence and information considerations – is formulated. The model suggests that incorporating confidence can account for cases of deferral that traditional accounts have trouble explaining

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Französisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: HEC Paris Research Paper ; ECO/SCD-2014-1060
    Schlagworte: Entscheidungstheorie; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Vertrauen; Asymmetrische Information; Informationswert; Präferenztheorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (65 S.)
  6. Uncertainty aversion, multi utility representations and state independence of utility
    Autor*in: Hill, Brian
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  HEC, Paris

    This paper proposes and characterises a model of uncertainty averse preferences that can simultaneously accommodate three divergences from subjective expected utility: imprecision of beliefs (or ambiguity), imprecision of tastes (or multi utility),... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper proposes and characterises a model of uncertainty averse preferences that can simultaneously accommodate three divergences from subjective expected utility: imprecision of beliefs (or ambiguity), imprecision of tastes (or multi utility), and state dependence of utility. Moreover, it characterises, in this context, a notion of state independence of utility borrowed from the literature on incomplete preferences. This notion is then shown to be basically inconsistent with the standard state-independence axiom, monotonicity, whenever tastes are imprecise. A new notion of state independence in the context of imprecise tastes, which is characterised by monotonicity, is proposed

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Französisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: HEC Paris Research Paper ; ECO/SCD-2015-1079
    Schlagworte: Risikoaversion; Hysterese; Nutzentheorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (42 S.)