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  1. Should Faustmann forecast climate change?
    Autor*in: Gars, Johan; Spiro, Daniel
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
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    keine Fernleihe

     

    Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper asks whether forecasting them is necessary for optimal rotation decisions. While climate-change uncertainty makes it theoretically impossible to calculate expected profit losses of not forecasting, we suggest a method utilizing Monte-Carlo simulations to obtain a credible upper bound on these losses. We show that an owner following a rule of thumb - ignoring future changes and only observing changes as they come - will closely approximate optimal management. If changes are observed without too much delay, profit losses and errors in harvesting are negligible. This means that the very complex analytical problem of optimal rotation with changing growth dynamics can be simplified to a sequence of stationary problems. It also implies the argument that boundedly-rational agents may behave “as if” being fully rational has traction in forestry.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/198996
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7636
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. What policies address both the coronavirus crisis and the climate crisis?
    Autor*in: Engström, Gustav; Gars, Johan; Jaakkola, Niko; Lindahl, Therese; Spiro, Daniel; Benthem, Arthur A. van
    Erschienen: June 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The coronavirus pandemic has led many countries to initiate unprecedented economic recovery packages. Policymakers tackling the coronavirus crisis have also been encouraged to prioritize policies which help mitigate a second, looming crisis: climate... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The coronavirus pandemic has led many countries to initiate unprecedented economic recovery packages. Policymakers tackling the coronavirus crisis have also been encouraged to prioritize policies which help mitigate a second, looming crisis: climate change. We identify and analyze policies that combat both the coronavirus crisis and the climate crisis. We analyze both the long-run climate impacts from coronavirus-related economic recovery policies, and the impacts of long-run climate policies on economic recovery and public health post-recession. We base our analysis on data on emissions, employment and corona-related layoffs across sectors, and on previous research. We show that, among climate policies, labor-intensive green infrastructure projects, planting trees, and in particular pricing carbon coupled with reduced labor taxation boost economic recovery. Among coronavirus policies, aiding services sectors (leisure services such as restaurants and culture, or professional services such as technology), education and the healthcare sector appear most promising, being labor intensive yet low-emission - if such sectoral aid is conditioned on being directed towards employment and on low-carbon supply chains. Large-scale green infrastructure projects and green R&D investment, while good for the climate, are unlikely to generate enough employment to effectively alleviate the coronavirus crisis.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/223439
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8367 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Uninsurance through trade
    Autor*in: Gars, Johan; Spiro, Daniel
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Dep. of Economics, Univ. of Oslo, Oslo

    Trade with differentiated goods normally provides a form of insurance against disasters, such as floods and fires, through an increasing relative price of goods from the afflicted country. With open access renewable resources this is reversed. A... mehr

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 140 (2014,13)
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    Trade with differentiated goods normally provides a form of insurance against disasters, such as floods and fires, through an increasing relative price of goods from the afflicted country. With open access renewable resources this is reversed. A country hit by a negative shock recovers faster if trading with fewer countries and, if trading with many, shocks affecting also the trading partners are preferred over idiosyncratic shocks. Trade thus increases economic vulnerability to disasters and local disasters will be worse than global. Furthermore, world markets transmit shocks so a natural disaster in one country can cause man-made disasters in competitor countries. These results are particularly relevant for developing countries due to high renewable resource reliance, more problems of open access and more economic vulnerability to disasters. A calibration suggests these concerns may apply to around 60 percent of world fisheries and that around 20 percent risk collapsing following small idiosyncratic shocks.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/102051
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version March 2014
    Schriftenreihe: Memorandum / Department of Economics, University of Oslo ; 13/2014
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (50 S.), graph. Darst.
  4. Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows
    Autor*in: Ferguson, Shon; Gars, Johan
    Erschienen: August 28, 2018
    Verlag:  Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm, Sweden

    The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of traded quantities and trade unit values to agricultural production shocks. We develop a general equilibrium model of trade in which production shocks in exporting countries affect both... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 206 (1227)
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    The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of traded quantities and trade unit values to agricultural production shocks. We develop a general equilibrium model of trade in which production shocks in exporting countries affect both traded quantities and trade unit values. The model includes per-unit trade costs and develops a methodology to quantify their size exploiting the trade unit value data. Using bilateral trade flow data for a large sample of countries and agricultural commodities we find that the intensive margin of trade is relatively inelastic to production shocks, with a 1 percent increase in production leading to a 0.5 percent increase in exports. We also find that per-unit trade costs are large, comprising 15 to 20 percent of import unit val- ues on average. Overall, our results suggest that there is room for improving trade as a mechanism for coping with food production volatility.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/183456
    Schriftenreihe: IFN working paper ; no. 1227 (2018)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Fuel for economic growth?
    Autor*in: Gars, Johan; Olovsson, Conny
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    We set up an endogenous growth model in which the efficiency of both capital and fossil energy can be improved, whereas the efficiency of one alternative energy source is limited. With capital and energy as complements, there exist two steady states:... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 204 (299)
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    We set up an endogenous growth model in which the efficiency of both capital and fossil energy can be improved, whereas the efficiency of one alternative energy source is limited. With capital and energy as complements, there exist two steady states: one stagnant where energy is fully derived from the alternative energy source, and one with balanced growth where energy is fully sourced from fossil fuel. Heterogeneity in initial TFP levels can generate the Great Divergence. The demand for fossil fuel in technologically advanced countries drives up its price and makes fossil fuel too costly in less advanced countries that choose the alternative and stagnant energy input.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/129716
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 299
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (44 S.), graph. Darst.
  6. Productivity shocks, international trade and import prices
    evidence from agriculture
    Autor*in: Ferguson, Shon; Gars, Johan
    Erschienen: February 2016
    Verlag:  Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm, Sweden

    The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of trade volumes and unit values to agricultural productivity shocks at home and abroad. We find that the unit values of trade ows vary systematically with production shocks using both aggregate... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 206 (1107)
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    The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of trade volumes and unit values to agricultural productivity shocks at home and abroad. We find that the unit values of trade ows vary systematically with production shocks using both aggregate data on a large sample of countries and detailed firm-level imports to Sweden. We find that import prices increase (and im- port volumes fall) when importer production increases. This result is likely driven by a change in the quality composition of imports or by economies of scale in international trade. This beneficial terms-of-trade effect that we find may thus be an important coping mechanism for food net-importing coun- tries that experience negative production shocks. Our results also suggest that trade volumes are relatively insensitive to changes in production. The results suggest that trade frictions, product differentiation and storage limit the role of international trade as way of coping with production volatility.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/129664
    Schriftenreihe: IFN working paper ; no. 1107
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. International business cycles
    quantifying the effects of a world market for oil
    Autor*in: Gars, Johan; Olovsson, Conny
    Erschienen: May 2017
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    To what extent is the international business cycle affected by the fact that an essential input (oil) is traded on the world market? We quantify the contribution of oil by setting up a model with separate shocks to efficiencies of capital/labor and... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 204 (340)
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    To what extent is the international business cycle affected by the fact that an essential input (oil) is traded on the world market? We quantify the contribution of oil by setting up a model with separate shocks to efficiencies of capital/labor and oil, as well as global shocks to the oil supply. We find that the shocks to the supply and the efficiency of oil both contribute to positive comovements. These two shocks are also relatively transitory, which induces high responses in output and low responses in consumption. As a consequence, the model resolves both the consumption correlation puzzle and the international comovement puzzle.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/189940
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 340
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen