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  1. Financial volatility and economic activity
    Autor*in: Fornari, Fabio; Mele, Antonio
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  LSE Financial Markets Group, London

    Does capital markets uncertainty affect the business cycle? We find that financial volatility predicts 30% of post-war economic activity in the United States, and that during the Great Moderation, aggregate stock market volatility explains, alone, up... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Does capital markets uncertainty affect the business cycle? We find that financial volatility predicts 30% of post-war economic activity in the United States, and that during the Great Moderation, aggregate stock market volatility explains, alone, up to 55% of real growth. In out-of-sample tests, we find that stock volatility helps predict turning points over and above traditional financial variables such as credit or term spreads, and other leading indicators. Combining stock volatility and the term spread leads to a proxy for (i) aggregate risk, (ii) risk-premiums and (iii) monetary policy, which is found to track, and anticipate, the business cycle. At the heart of our analysis is a notion of volatility based on a slowly changing measure of return variability. This volatility is designed to capture long-run uncertainty in capital markets, and is particularly successful at explaining trends in the economic activity at horizons of six months and one year.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / LSE Financial Markets Group ; 642
    Schlagworte: Finanzmarkt; Aktienmarkt; Volatilität; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; USA
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (60 S.), graph. Darst.
  2. The role of financial variables in predicting economic activity
    Autor*in: Espinoza, Raphael; Fornari, Fabio; Lombardi, Marco
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main

    Previous research has shown that the US business cycle leads the European cycle by a few quarters, and can therefore help predicting euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables provide additional predictive power. We use a VAR model of... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 534 (1108)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Previous research has shown that the US business cycle leads the European cycle by a few quarters, and can therefore help predicting euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables provide additional predictive power. We use a VAR model of the US and the euro area GDPs and extend it to take into account common global shocks and information provided by selected combinations of financial variables. In-sample analysis shows that shocks to financial variables influence real activity with a peak around 4 to 6 quarters after the shock. Out-of-sample Root-Mean- Squared Forecast Error (RMFE) shows that adding financial variables yields smaller errors in forecasting US economic activity, especially at a five-quarter horizon, but the gain is overall tiny in economic terms. This link is even less prominent in the euro area, where financial indicators do not improve short and medium term GDP forecasts even when their timely availability, relative to a given GDP release, is exploited. The same conclusion is reached with a dataset of quarterly industrial production indices, although financial variables marginally improve forecasts of monthly industrial production. We argue that the findings that financial variables have no predictive power for future activity in the euro area relate to the unconditional nature of the RMFE metric. When forecasting ability is assessed as if in real time (i.e. conditionally on the information available at the time when forecasts are made), we find that models using financial variables would have been preferred in many episodes, and in particular between 1999 and 2002. Results from the historical decomposition of a VAR model indeed suggest that in that period shocks were predominantly of financial nature. -- VAR ; Financial Variables ; International Linkages ; Conditional Forecast

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/153542
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 1108
    Schlagworte: Konjunkturzusammenhang; Wirtschaftsindikator; Wirtschaftsprognose; VAR-Modell; USA; Eurozone
    Umfang: Online-Ressource, (48 S., 1,61 MB)
  3. The role of financial variables in predicting economic activity in the euro area
    Autor*in: Espinoza, Raphael; Fornari, Fabio; Lombardi, Marco
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Internat. Monetary Fund, Washington, DC

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    W 128 (09.241)
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; 09/241
    Schlagworte: Konjunkturzusammenhang; Wirtschaftsindikator; Wirtschaftsprognose; VAR-Modell; USA; Eurozone
    Umfang: 35 S., graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 28 - 29