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  1. Households' expectations and regional COVID-19 dynamics
    Autor*in: Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    In this paper we analyze how consumers in Germany updated expectations about inƒaflation in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. We use a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of regional exposure to COVID-19 cases, the stringency of restriction... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Standort:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 12
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    In this paper we analyze how consumers in Germany updated expectations about inƒaflation in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. We use a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of regional exposure to COVID-19 cases, the stringency of restriction measures and local unemployment rates on inflation expectations. We find that consumers who were locally more exposed to COVID-19 cases report higher inflation expectations. ‘e relationship between the virus spread and inflation expectations is ampli€ed if respondents live in high unemployment regions. We explain our findings through an information and experience channel. Information about the pandemic and its effects played an important role during the €rst wave of the pandemic. However, when a‹ention to information diminishes, experience matters most. We document that negative personal (how severely the respondent was affected financially) and local experience (how severely the district was affected by COVID-19) are associated with higher inƒation expectations and more pessimistic views with regard to unemployment, interest rates, house prices and the intention to spend. Our €ndings show that it is important to consider regional disparities when examining individual belief formation.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783957299338
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/269863
    Auflage/Ausgabe: 16.01.2023
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2023, 02
    Schlagworte: COVID-19 pandemic; inflationexpectations; inflation disagreement; perceived severity of COVID-19; personal experience
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
    Autor*in: Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 12
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24 th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783957299345
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/269864
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2023, 03
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; natural experiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
    Autor*in: Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  Charles University, Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education, Prague

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 823
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9788073435523; 9788073446659
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / CERGE-EI ; 745
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; natural experiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen