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  1. Overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a representative sample
    Autor*in: Ahrens, Steffen; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Kassner, Bernhard
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, [München]

    We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. To do so, we introduce a new method of eliciting overconfidence that is simple to understand, quick to implement, and... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 553
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. To do so, we introduce a new method of eliciting overconfidence that is simple to understand, quick to implement, and captures respondents' excess confidence in their own judgment. Our results show that, in line with theoretical predictions, an excessive degree of confidence in one's judgment is correlated with lower portfolio diversification, larger stock price forecasting errors, and more extreme political views. Additionally, we find that overconfidence is correlated with voting absenteeism. These results appear to validate our method and show how overconfidence is a bias that permeates several aspects of peoples' life.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/244323
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Rationality & Competition, CRC TRR 190 ; no. 283 (May 26, 2021)
    Schlagworte: Overconfidence; SOEP; Survey
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Risk-taking under limited liability
    quantifying the role of motivated beliefs
    Autor*in: Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Gietl, Daniel; Heinemann, Frank
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper investigates whether limited liability and moral hazard affect risk-taking through motivated beliefs. On the one hand, limited liability pushes investors towards taking excessive risks. On the other, such excesses make it hard for... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper investigates whether limited liability and moral hazard affect risk-taking through motivated beliefs. On the one hand, limited liability pushes investors towards taking excessive risks. On the other, such excesses make it hard for investors to maintain a positive self-image when moral hazard is present. Using a novel experimental design, we show that subjects form motivated beliefs to self-justify their excessive risk-taking. For the same investment opportunity, subjects invest more and are significantly more optimistic about the success of the investment if their failure can harm others. We show that more than one third of the investment increase under limited liability can be explained through motivated beliefs. Moreover, using a treatment with limited liability but no moral hazard, we show that motivated beliefs are formed subconsciously and can lead to the paradoxical result of investors taking larger risks when their investment can harm a third party than when it cannot. These results underscore the importance of motivated beliefs in regulatory policy as they show that one should target not only bad incentives but also “bad beliefs.”

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249022
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9477 (2021)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen