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  1. The changing link between labor cost and price inflation in the United States
    Autor*in: Bobeica, Elena; Ciccarelli, Matteo; Vansteenkiste, Isabel
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The link between US labor cost and price inflation has weakened notably over the past three decades. In this paper we document this decline and analyse potential contributing factors. We consider four important trends that have shaped the US economy... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 534
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    The link between US labor cost and price inflation has weakened notably over the past three decades. In this paper we document this decline and analyse potential contributing factors. We consider four important trends that have shaped the US economy of late: (i) improved anchoring of inflation expectations; (ii) the changing constellation of shocks hitting the economy; (iii) increased trade integration and (iv) rising firm market power. We find that the improved anchoring of inflation expectations has played a particularly relevant role but also that the latter two trends offer promising avenues to understand the decline in pass-through from labor cost to price inflation. Our results also bring supportive evidence to the view taken by the FED in the context of its monetary policy strategy review that a robust job market can be sustained without causing an outbreak of inflation.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289948067
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237722
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2583 (August 2021)
    Schlagworte: Inflation; pass-through; labor costs; structural VAR; United States
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?
    Autor*in: Bańbura, Marta; Bobeica, Elena
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We find that it does, but choosing the right specification is not trivial. We unveil notable model instability, with breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run-up to the... mehr

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    DS 534
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    We find that it does, but choosing the right specification is not trivial. We unveil notable model instability, with breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run-up to the EMU and after the sovereign debt crisis, when the trend and for the latter period, also the amount of slack, were harder to pin down. Yet, some specifications outperform a univariate benchmark most of the time and are thus a useful element in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an extraordinarily long period by euro area standards. We complement the analysis using real-time data over 2005-2018. As lessons for practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output gap works well overall as a measure of economic slack, but after the Great Recession it is outperformed by endogenously estimated slack or by estimates from international economic institutions; (iii) external variables do not bring forecast gains; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several timevarying features are a promising avenue for forecasting, especially when density forecasts are of interest, and finally, (v) averaging over a wide range of modelling choices offers some hedge against breaks in forecast performance.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789289943888
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/229085
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2471 (September 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. PCCI
    a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area
    Autor*in: Bańbura, Marta; Bobeica, Elena
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper details the rationale and methodology behind the construction of the Persistent and Common Component of Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation captures... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 536
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    This paper details the rationale and methodology behind the construction of the Persistent and Common Component of Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation captures widespread developments across the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) basket and that it is the persistent component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low-frequency common component, i.e. a component driven by shocks or factors that are relevant for all inflation series and capturing cycles longer than three years. The PCCI is a weighted average of these common components. It is an alternative to the typical exclusion-based measures used to gauge underlying inflation (e.g. HICP excluding food and energy), as it does not a priori exclude any HICP items. It exhibits a set of desirable properties as a measure of underlying inflation, and it is a good tracker of more lasting inflationary developments (judging by smoothness and bias). Furthermore, it is timely and signals turning points with some lead, while acting as an attractor for headline inflation.

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289944373
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/234508
    Schriftenreihe: Statistics paper series / European Central Bank ; no 38 (October 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models
    Autor*in: Bobeica, Elena; Hartwig, Benny
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We document the impact of COVID-19 on frequently employed time series models, with a focus on euro area in ation. We show that for both single equation models (Phillips curves) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimated parameters change notably... mehr

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    We document the impact of COVID-19 on frequently employed time series models, with a focus on euro area in ation. We show that for both single equation models (Phillips curves) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimated parameters change notably with the pandemic. In a VAR, allowing the errors to have a distribution with fatter tails than the Gaussian one equips the model to better deal with the COVID-19 shock. A standard Gaussian VAR can still be used for producing conditional forecasts when relevant off-model information is used. We illustrate this by conditioning on official projections for a set of variables, but also by tilting to expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. For Phillips curves, averaging across many conditional forecasts in a thick modelling framework offers some hedge against parameter instability.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289945585
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237697
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2558 (May 2021)
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; Forecasting; Student's t errors; tilting; ination; VAR
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Understanding low wage growth in the euro area and European countries
    Beteiligt: Nickel, Christiane (HerausgeberIn); Bobeica, Elena (HerausgeberIn); Koester, Gerrit (HerausgeberIn); Lis, Eliza Magdalena (HerausgeberIn); Porqueddu, Mario (HerausgeberIn)
    Erschienen: [September 2019]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Despite notable improvements in the labour market since 2013, wage growth in the euro area was subdued and substantially overpredicted in 2013-17. This paper summarises the findings of an ESCB expert group on the reasons for low wage growth and... mehr

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 535
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    Despite notable improvements in the labour market since 2013, wage growth in the euro area was subdued and substantially overpredicted in 2013-17. This paper summarises the findings of an ESCB expert group on the reasons for low wage growth and provides comparable analyses on wage developments in the euro area as a whole and in individual EU countries. The paper finds that cyclical drivers, as captured by a standard Phillips curve, seem to explain much of the weakness in wage growth during this period, but not all of it. Going beyond the drivers included in standard Phillips curves, other factors are also found to have played a role, such as compositional effects, the possible non-linear reaction of wage growth to cyclical improvements, and structural and institutional factors. In order to increase the robustness of wage forecasts, the paper also proposes ready-to-use tools for cross-checking euro area wage growth forecasts based on wage Phillips curves. These are derived based on a comprehensive real-time forecast evaluation exercise

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Beteiligt: Nickel, Christiane (HerausgeberIn); Bobeica, Elena (HerausgeberIn); Koester, Gerrit (HerausgeberIn); Lis, Eliza Magdalena (HerausgeberIn); Porqueddu, Mario (HerausgeberIn)
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289938730
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207618
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 232 (September 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (88 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Understanding low wage growth in the euro area and European countries
    Beteiligt: Nickel, Christiane (HerausgeberIn); Bobeica, Elena (HerausgeberIn); Koester, Gerrit (HerausgeberIn); Lis, Eliza Magdalena (HerausgeberIn); Porqueddu, Mario (HerausgeberIn)
    Erschienen: [September 2019]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Despite notable improvements in the labour market since 2013, wage growth in the euro area was subdued and substantially overpredicted in 2013-17. This paper summarises the findings of an ESCB expert group on the reasons for low wage growth and... mehr

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

     

    Despite notable improvements in the labour market since 2013, wage growth in the euro area was subdued and substantially overpredicted in 2013-17. This paper summarises the findings of an ESCB expert group on the reasons for low wage growth and provides comparable analyses on wage developments in the euro area as a whole and in individual EU countries. The paper finds that cyclical drivers, as captured by a standard Phillips curve, seem to explain much of the weakness in wage growth during this period, but not all of it. Going beyond the drivers included in standard Phillips curves, other factors are also found to have played a role, such as compositional effects, the possible non-linear reaction of wage growth to cyclical improvements, and structural and institutional factors. In order to increase the robustness of wage forecasts, the paper also proposes ready-to-use tools for cross-checking euro area wage growth forecasts based on wage Phillips curves. These are derived based on a comprehensive real-time forecast evaluation exercise

     
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    Volltext (kostenfrei)
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Beteiligt: Nickel, Christiane (HerausgeberIn); Bobeica, Elena (HerausgeberIn); Koester, Gerrit (HerausgeberIn); Lis, Eliza Magdalena (HerausgeberIn); Porqueddu, Mario (HerausgeberIn)
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289938730
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207618
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 232 (September 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (88 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. PCCI
    a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area
    Autor*in: Bańbura, Marta; Bobeica, Elena
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper details the rationale and methodology behind the construction of the Persistent and Common Component of Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation captures... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

     

    This paper details the rationale and methodology behind the construction of the Persistent and Common Component of Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation captures widespread developments across the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) basket and that it is the persistent component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low-frequency common component, i.e. a component driven by shocks or factors that are relevant for all inflation series and capturing cycles longer than three years. The PCCI is a weighted average of these common components. It is an alternative to the typical exclusion-based measures used to gauge underlying inflation (e.g. HICP excluding food and energy), as it does not a priori exclude any HICP items. It exhibits a set of desirable properties as a measure of underlying inflation, and it is a good tracker of more lasting inflationary developments (judging by smoothness and bias). Furthermore, it is timely and signals turning points with some lead, while acting as an attractor for headline inflation.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289944373
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/234508
    Schriftenreihe: Statistics paper series / European Central Bank ; no 38 (October 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. What drives core inflation?
    the role of supply shocks
    Autor*in: Bańbura, Marta; Bobeica, Elena; Martínez Hernández, Catalina
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We propose a framework to identify a rich set of structural drivers of inflation in order to understand the role of the multiple and concomitant sources of the post-pandemic inflation surge. We specify a medium-sized structural Bayesian VAR on a... mehr

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    We propose a framework to identify a rich set of structural drivers of inflation in order to understand the role of the multiple and concomitant sources of the post-pandemic inflation surge. We specify a medium-sized structural Bayesian VAR on a comprehensive set of variables for the euro area economy. We analyse in particular various types of supply shocks, some of which were not considered relevant before the pandemic, notably global supply chain shocks and gas price shocks. The residuals of the VAR are assumed to admit a factor structure and the shocks are identified via zero and sign restrictions on factor loadings. The framework can deal with ragged-edge data and extreme observations. Shocks linked to global supply chains and to gas prices have exhibited a much larger influence than in the past. Overall, supply shocks can explain the bulk of the post-pandemic inflation surge, also for core inflation. Being able to gauge the impact of such shocks is useful for policy making. We show that a counterfactual core inflation measure net of energy and global supply chain shocks has been more stable after the pandemic.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289962520
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2875
    Schlagworte: Inflation; Bayesian VAR; Supply shocks; Gas prices; Supply chain bottlenecks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. The link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area
    Autor*in: Bobeica, Elena; Ciccarelli, Matteo; Vansteenkiste, Isabel
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area. Using country and sector quarterly data over the period 1985Q1-2018Q1 we find a strong link between labor cost and... mehr

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    This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area. Using country and sector quarterly data over the period 1985Q1-2018Q1 we find a strong link between labor cost and price inflation in the four major economies of the euro area and across the three main sectors. The dynamic interaction between prices and wages is time-varying and depends on the state of the economy and on the shocks hitting the economy. Our results show that it is more likely that labor costs are passed on to price inflation with demand shocks than with supply shocks. However, the pass-through is systematically lower in periods of low inflation as compared to periods of high inflation. These results confirm that, under circumstances of predominantly demand shocks, labor cost increases will be passed on to prices. Coming from a period of low inflation, however, this pass-through could be moderate at least until inflation stably reaches a sustained path.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789289934978
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/208269
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2235 (February 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Demographics and inflation
    Autor*in: Bobeica, Elena; Lis, Eliza Magdalena; Nickel, Christiane; Sun, Yiqiao
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Most euro area countries have entered an unprecedented ageing process: life expectancy continues to rise and fertility rates have declined, while retirement age in the last twenty to thirty years hardly increased. This implies an ever smaller... mehr

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    Most euro area countries have entered an unprecedented ageing process: life expectancy continues to rise and fertility rates have declined, while retirement age in the last twenty to thirty years hardly increased. This implies an ever smaller fraction of the working age population in total population, leading to changes in consumption and saving behaviours and having an important impact on the macroeconomy. In this paper we focus on the rela- tionship between demographic change and inflation. We find that based on a cointegrated VAR model there is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and the growth rate of working-age population as a share in total population in the euro area countries as a whole, but also in the US and Germany. We also find that this relation is mitigated by the effect of monetary policy, which we account for by including the short-term interest rate in our analysis. One caveat of the analysis could be that the empirical relationship as found does not sufficiently take into account changes in policy settings following the high inflation experiences in the 1970s. Our findings support the view that demographic trends are among the forces that shape the economic environment in which monetary policy operates. This is particularly relevant for countries, like many in Europe, that face an ageing process.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289927284
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154439
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2006 (January 2017)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Missing disinflation and missing inflation
    the puzzles that aren't
    Autor*in: Bobeica, Elena; Jarociński, Marek
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    In the immediate wake of the Great Recession we didn't see the disinflation that most models predicted and, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model that properly... mehr

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    In the immediate wake of the Great Recession we didn't see the disinflation that most models predicted and, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model that properly accounts for domestic and global factors. Such a model reveals, among others, that domestic factors explain much of the inflation dynamics in the 2012-2014 euro area missing inflation episode. Consequently, economists and models that excessively focused on the global nature of inflation were liable to miss the contribution of deflationary domestic shocks during this episode.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289927222
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154433
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2000 (January 2017)
    Schlagworte: Weltwirtschaftskrise; Inflationserwartung; Inflation; Prognose; VAR-Modell; Eurozone; Inflationskonvergenz; EU-Staaten; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. What drives export market shares?
    it depends! : an empirical analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging
    Autor*in: Osbat, Chiara; Benkovskis, Konstantins; Bluhm, Benjamin; Bobeica, Elena; Zeugner, Stefan
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    What drives external performance of countries? This is a recurring question in academia and policy. The factors underlying export growth are receiving great attention, as countries struggle to grow out of the crisis by increasing exports and as... mehr

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    What drives external performance of countries? This is a recurring question in academia and policy. The factors underlying export growth are receiving great attention, as countries struggle to grow out of the crisis by increasing exports and as protectionist discourses take foot again. Despite decades of debates, it is still unclear what the drivers of external performance are and, importantly, which ones policy makers can influence. We use Bayesian Model Averaging in a panel setting to investigate the drivers of export market shares of 25 EU countries, considering a wide range of traditional indicators along with novel ones developed within the CompNet Competitiveness Research Network. We find that export market share growth is linked to different factors in the old and in the new Member States, with one exception: for both groups, competitive pressures from China have strongly affected export performance since the early 2000s. In the case of old EU Member States, investment, quality of institutions and available liquidity to firms also appear to play a role. For the new EU Member States, labour and total factor productivity are particularly important, while inward FDI matters rather than domestic investment. Price competitiveness does not seem to play a very important role in either set of countries: relative export prices do show correlation with export performance for the new Member States, but only when they are adjusted for quality. Our results point to the importance of considering the "exporting stage" of a country when discussing export-enhancing policies.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289928120
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/175714
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2090 (July 2017)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. What drives export market shares?: it depends!
    an empirical analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging
    Autor*in: Beņkovskis, Konstantīns; Bluhm, Benjamin; Bobeica, Elena; Osbat, Chiara; Zeugner, Stefan
    Erschienen: 2017
    Verlag:  Latvijas Banka, Riga

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    ISBN: 9789984888903
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Latvijas Banka ; 2017, 2
    Schlagworte: export; Export; Marktanteil; Internationaler Wettbewerb; Bayes-Statistik; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade of euro area countries
    Autor*in: Bobeica, Elena; Christodoulopoulou, Styliani; Tkačevs, Olegs
    Erschienen: 15 Jul 2016
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

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    ISBN: 9789289921893
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    hdl: 10419/154374
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 1941 (July 2016)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-Euro area trade of Euro area countries
    Autor*in: Bobeica, Elena; Christodoulopoulou, Styliani; Tkačevs, Oļegs
    Erschienen: 2016
    Verlag:  Latvijas Banka, Riga

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
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    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789984888804
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Latvijas Banka ; 2016/4
    Schlagworte: Preiswettbewerb; Export; Import; Handelsbilanz; Eurozone
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen