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  1. The rise of digital watchers
    Autor*in: Ebner, Till; Nellen, Thomas; Tenhofen, Jörn
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Swiss National Bank, Zurich

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    Schriftenreihe: SNB working papers ; 2021, 1
    Schlagworte: payment behavior; control motive; pocket watcher; digital watcher; survey data; central bank digital currency
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The impact of aggregate uncertainty on firm-level uncertainty
    Autor*in: Easaw, Joshy Z.; Grimme, Christian
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and... mehr

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    We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This effect holds across different types of domestic and international measures of aggregate uncertainty. However, the size of the impact is heterogeneous and depends on certain firm characteristics and the state of the business cycle. For example, the widely used economic policy uncertainty index matters to all firms’ uncertainty only in recessionary periods, while it is relevant over the entire business cycle only to large firms' uncertainty.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8934 (2021)
    Schlagworte: firm-level uncertainty; aggregate uncertainty; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Subjective uncertainty, expectations, and firm behavior
    Autor*in: Lautenbacher, Stefan
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    Based on a new survey question in a large and representative panel of German firms, this paper introduces a novel measure of managers' subjective uncertainty. I compare this measure of business uncertainty to respondents' business expectations and... mehr

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    Based on a new survey question in a large and representative panel of German firms, this paper introduces a novel measure of managers' subjective uncertainty. I compare this measure of business uncertainty to respondents' business expectations and document a strong negative relationship. However, the link is much weaker in bad times, since uncertainty is then persistently high - even when expectations are favorable. I continue by investigating the relative importance of uncertainty and expectations for corporate decisions. Exploiting information on firms' investment and labor reactions to the COVID-19 crisis, I do not find evidence that uncertainty induced "wait and see" behavior. However, a deterioration in managers' expectations and in their assessment of their firms' business situation predicts investment deferral and a reduction in employment.

     
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    hdl: 10419/233024
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 349 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Subjective uncertainty; expectations; firms; survey data; corporatedecisions; business cycles
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Uncertainty and change
    survey evidence of firms' subjective beliefs
    Autor*in: Bachmann, Ruediger; Carstensen, Kai; Lautenbacher, Stefan; Schneider, Martin
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has... mehr

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    This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has just experienced unusual growth, and more so if the experience was negative. At the quarterly frequency, subjective uncertainty closely tracks conditional volatility of shocks: Both exhibit an asymmetric V-shaped relationship with past growth. In the cross section of firms, however, subjective uncertainty differs from conditional volatility: planning in successful firms—either large or fast-growing—reflects lower subjective uncertainty than in unsuccessful firms even when the size of the shocks is the same.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248939
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9394 (2021)
    Schlagworte: expectation formation; firms; measurement; subjective uncertainty; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. A temporary VAT cut as unconventional fiscal policy
    Autor*in: Bachmann, Ruediger; Born, Benjamin; Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Kocharkov, Georgi; Luetticke, Ralph; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We exploit the unexpected announcement of an immediate, temporary VAT cut in Germany in the second half of 2020 as a natural experiment to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on households'... mehr

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    We exploit the unexpected announcement of an immediate, temporary VAT cut in Germany in the second half of 2020 as a natural experiment to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on households' consumption expenditures and their perceived pass-through of the tax change into prices to quantify its effects. The temporary VAT cut led to a substantial relative increase in durable spending of 36% for individuals with a high perceived pass-through. Semi- and non-durable spending also increased. According to our preferred estimates, the VAT policy increased aggregate consumption spending by 34 billion Euros.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248944
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9399 (2021)
    Schlagworte: unconventional fiscal policy; value added tax; survey data; expectations; consumption; household data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Labour shortages and wage growth
    Autor*in: Frohm, Erik
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Tight labour markets are usually accompanied by mounting wage pressures. Yet, in the past decade, wage growth has remained subdued despite the appearance of widespread labour shortages. This paper re-examines labour market conditions since 2007... mehr

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    Tight labour markets are usually accompanied by mounting wage pressures. Yet, in the past decade, wage growth has remained subdued despite the appearance of widespread labour shortages. This paper re-examines labour market conditions since 2007 through the lens of a novel indicator, relative labour shortages (RLS), based on data from a large representative business survey in Sweden. Four main results emerge from the analysis: (1), the time-series average of RLS suggested much weaker labour market conditions during the 2013−2019 recovery from the Great Recession and during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 than qualitative surveys or the vacancy-unemployment ratio. (2), the reason is that RLS contains a time-varying intensive margin of labour shortages not recorded in most surveys, which has been trending downwards since the Great Recession. (3), fixed-effects regressions with several aggregate-, sector, region and establishment-level controls confirm that RLS is strongly and positively correlated with annual wage growth at the establishmentlevel. (4), sector-level wage Phillips curves show that the subdued level of RLS can help explain the sluggish wage growth in Sweden since the Great Recession.

     
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    Medientyp: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9789289947626
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237715
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2576 (July 2021)
    Schlagworte: Wage inflation; labour markets; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Attitudes towards globalization barriers and implications for voting
    evidence from Sweden
    Autor*in: Karakas, Leyla D.; Kim, Nam Seok; Mitra, Devashish
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using six waves of the Swedish National Election Studies (SNES) survey data, we investigate the determinants of attitudes towards globalization barriers (trade and immigration) and how important these attitudes are in how people vote. In line with... mehr

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    Using six waves of the Swedish National Election Studies (SNES) survey data, we investigate the determinants of attitudes towards globalization barriers (trade and immigration) and how important these attitudes are in how people vote. In line with the existing results in the literature, we find that more educated and richer voters support freer trade and more immigration. We also find that conservative voters in Sweden are more likely to prefer freer trade but higher immigration barriers. Once various economic and demographic determinants of globalization barrier preferences along with voters’ ideologies on a liberal-conservative spectrum are controlled for in the analysis of voting behavior, trade barrier preferences lose their statistical significance while attitudes towards immigration barriers remain significant. This suggests that immigration attitudes affect voting behavior through channels involving identity-driven factors that are different from the channels through which more traditional electoral issues, such as trade barriers, work. Focusing on the anti-globalization Swedish Democrats, we confirm that voters with a greater preference for barriers to immigration were more likely to switch their votes to this party from the 2014 to the 2018 election.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245417
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9236 (2021)
    Schlagworte: globalization; trade; immigration; elections; voting; survey data; Sweden
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 72 Seiten)
  8. Anchored inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Carvalho, Carlos Viana de; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel; Preston, Bruce
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  [Departamento de Economia, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro], [Rio de Janeiro, RJ]

    We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in in ation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of in ation and in ation expectations for the United States and other countries over the post-war period. In our theory long-run in ation... mehr

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    We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in in ation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of in ation and in ation expectations for the United States and other countries over the post-war period. In our theory long-run in ation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run in ation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of in ation. The model, estimated using only in ation and short-term forecasts from professional surveys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term in ation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations.

     
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    hdl: 10419/249737
    Auflage/Ausgabe: April 5, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / PUC Rio, Departamento de Economia ; no. 689
    Schlagworte: Anchored expectations; ination expectations; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Are households indifferent to monetary policy announcements?
    Autor*in: De Fiore, Fiorella; Lombardi, Marco; Schuffels, Johannes
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 956 (August 2021)
    Schlagworte: households; monetary policy; central bank communication; inflation expectations; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Household inflation expectations and consumer spending
    evidence from panel data
    Autor*in: Burke, Mary A.; Ozdagli, Ali
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Dallas

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 2110
    Schlagworte: Inflation expectations; survey data; durable and nondurable goods consumption
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 108 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Estimating coherency between survey data and incentivized experimental data
    Autor*in: Belzil, Christian; Pernaudet, Julie; Poinas, François
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Imagine the situation in which an econometrician can infer the distribution of welfare gains induced by the provision of higher education financial aid using survey data obtained from a set of individuals, and can estimate the same distribution using... mehr

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    Imagine the situation in which an econometrician can infer the distribution of welfare gains induced by the provision of higher education financial aid using survey data obtained from a set of individuals, and can estimate the same distribution using a highly incentivized field experiment in which the same set of individuals participated. In the experimental setting relying on incentivized choices, making the wrong decision can be costly. In the survey, the stakes are null and reporting false intentions and expectations is costless. In this paper, we evaluate the extent to which the decomposition of the two welfare gain distributions into latent factors are coherent. We find that individuals often put a much different weight to a specific set of determinants in the experiment and in the survey and that the valuations of financial aid are rank incoherent. About 66% of Biased Incoherency (defined as the tendency to have a higher valuation rank in the experiment than in the survey) is explained by individual heterogeneity in subjective benefits, costs and other factors and about half of these factors affect the welfare gains of financial aid in the survey and in the experiment in opposite directions. Ex-ante policy evaluation of a potential expansion of the Canadian higher education financial aid system may therefore depend heavily on whether or not the data have been obtained in an "incentivized" context.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245645
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14594
    Schlagworte: field experiment; survey data; coherency; incentives
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Estimating coherency between survey data and incentivized experimental data
    Autor*in: Belzil, Christian; Pernaudet, Julie; Poinas, François
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  CIRANO, [Montréal]

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    Schriftenreihe: Cahier scientifique / CIRANO ; 2021s, 30
    Schlagworte: field experiment; survey data; coherency; incentives
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Zero lower bound on inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with... mehr

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    We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a standard New Keynesian model with a zero-lower bound on inflation expectations. Unconventional monetary policies, such as forward guidance, are weaker. In liquidity traps, the government spending output multiplier is finite, and adverse aggregate supply shocks are not expansionary. The possibility of confidence-driven liquidity traps is attenuated.

     
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    hdl: 10419/250514
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14853
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; non-rational beliefs; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Does democracy make taller men?
    cross-country European evidence
    Autor*in: Batinti, Alberto; Costa-Font, Joan
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study whether a democracy improves a measure of individual wellbeing; human heights. Drawing on individual-level datasets, we test the hypothesis using a battery of eight different measures of democracy and derived averages, and include models... mehr

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    We study whether a democracy improves a measure of individual wellbeing; human heights. Drawing on individual-level datasets, we test the hypothesis using a battery of eight different measures of democracy and derived averages, and include models accounting for several confounders, regional and cohort fixed effects. We document that democracy - or its quality during early childhood - shows a strong and positive conditional correlation with male, but not female, adult stature. Our preferred estimates suggest that being born in a democracy increases average male stature from a minimum of 1.33 to a maximum of 2.4 cm. Together with the positive association with male stature and the increase in gender dimorphism, we also show an additional contribution when democracy increases furtherly during adolescent years, and when we adopt measures of existing democratic capital before birth and at the end of height plasticity in early adulthood. We also find that democracy is associated with a reduction in inequality of heights distribution. We find period-heterogeneity in our results, with early democratizations being more effective on heights than later ones. Results are robust to the inclusion/exclusion of countries exposed to communism.

     
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    hdl: 10419/249027
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: January 2022
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9482 (2021)
    Schlagworte: democracy; wellbeing; human heights; waves of democratisation; communism; Europe; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Economic sentiment
    disentangling private information from public knowledge
    Autor*in: Heinisch, Katja; Lindner, Axel
    Erschienen: [17. Dezember 2021]
    Verlag:  Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, Halle (Saale), Germany

    This paper addresses a general problem with the use of surveys as source of information about the state of an economy: Answers to surveys are highly dependent on information that is publicly available, while only additional information that is not... mehr

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    This paper addresses a general problem with the use of surveys as source of information about the state of an economy: Answers to surveys are highly dependent on information that is publicly available, while only additional information that is not already publicly known has the potential to improve a professional forecast. We propose a simple procedure to disentangle the private information of agents from knowledge that is already publicly known for surveys that ask for general as well as for private prospects. Our results reveal the potential of our proposed technique for the usage of European Commissions' consumer surveys for economic forecasting for Germany.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248452
    Schriftenreihe: IWH discussion papers ; 2021, no. 15 (December 2021)
    Schlagworte: consumer confidence; private information; public information; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (III, 15 Seiten, 0,81 MB), Diagramme
  16. A temporary vat cut as unconventional fiscal policy
    Autor*in: Bachmann, Ruediger; Born, Benjamin; Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Kocharkov, Georgi; Luetticke, Ralph; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 02 November 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16690
    Schlagworte: unconventional fiscal policy; value added tax; survey data; Expectations; Consumption; household data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Zero lower bound on inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
    Erschienen: 16 November 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16729
    Schlagworte: Inflation expectations; non-rational beliefs; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Drawing a line
    comparing the estimation of top incomes between tax data and household survey data
    Autor*in: Yonzan, Nishant; Milanović, Branko; Morelli, Salvatore; Gornick, Janet C.
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), asbl, Luxembourg

    The paper uses the flexibility of household survey data to align their income categories and recipient units with the income categories and units found in data produced by tax authorities. Our analyses, based on a standardized definition of fiscal... mehr

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    The paper uses the flexibility of household survey data to align their income categories and recipient units with the income categories and units found in data produced by tax authorities. Our analyses, based on a standardized definition of fiscal income, allow us to locate, for top-income groups, the sources of discrepancy. We find, using the cases of the United States, Germany, and France, that the results from survey-based and tax data correspond extremely well (in terms of total income, mean income, composition of income, and income shares) above the 90th percentile and up to the top 1 percent of the distribution. Information about income composition, available in the US, allows us to investigate the determinants of this gap in the US. About three-fourths of the tax/survey gap is due to differences in non-labor incomes, especially self-employment (business) income. The gap itself may be due to tax-induced re-classification of income from corporate to personal or/and to lower ability of surveys to capture top 1 percent incomes.

     
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    hdl: 10419/247240
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Revised in October 2021
    Schriftenreihe: LIS working paper series ; no. 805
    Schlagworte: Income; inequality; survey data; tax data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Recruiting intensity and hiring practices
    cross-sectional and time-series evidence
    Autor*in: Lochner, Benjamin; Merkl, Christian; Stüber, Heiko; Gürtzgen, Nicole
    Erschienen: September 8, 2020
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    Using the German IAB Job Vacancy Survey, we look into the black box of recruiting intensity and hiring practices from the employers' perspective. Our paper evaluates three important channels for hiring -namely vacancy posting, the selectivity of... mehr

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    Using the German IAB Job Vacancy Survey, we look into the black box of recruiting intensity and hiring practices from the employers' perspective. Our paper evaluates three important channels for hiring -namely vacancy posting, the selectivity of hiring (labor selection), and the number of search channels- through the lens of an undirected search model. Vacancy posting and labor selection show a U-shape over the employment growth distribution. The number of search channels is also upward sloping for growing establishments, but relatively flat for shrinking establishments. We argue that growing establishments react to positive establishment-specific productivity shocks by using all three channels more actively. Furthermore, we connect the fact that shrinking establishments post more vacancies and are less selective than those with a constant workforce to churn triggered by employment-to-employment transitions. In line with our theoretical framework, all three hiring margins are procyclical over the business cycle.

     
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    hdl: 10419/224559
    Schriftenreihe: Jahrestagung 2020 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 59
    Schlagworte: recruiting intensity; vacancies; labor selection; administrative data; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. What matters in households' inflation expectations?
    Autor*in: Andrade, Philippe; Gautier, Erwan; Mengus, Eric
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, [Boston, MA]

    We provide evidence that households discretize their inflation expectations so that what matters for durable consumption decisions is the broad inflation regime they expect. Using survey data, we document that a large share of the adjustment in the... mehr

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    We provide evidence that households discretize their inflation expectations so that what matters for durable consumption decisions is the broad inflation regime they expect. Using survey data, we document that a large share of the adjustment in the average inflation expectation comes from the change in the share of households expecting stable prices; these households also consume relatively less than the ones expecting positive inflation. In contrast, variations of expectations across households expecting a positive inflation rate are associated with much smaller differences in individual durable consumption choices. We illustrate how this mitigates the expectation channel of monetary policy.

     
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    hdl: 10419/238080
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: December 2020
    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ; no. 20, 18
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; Euler equation; survey data; imperfect information; adjustment costs; stabilization policies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 100 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Reconciling reports: modelling employment earnings and measurement errors using linked survey and administrative data
    Autor*in: Jenkins, Stephen; Rios-Avila, Fernando
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We contribute new UK evidence about measurement errors and employment earnings to a field dominated by findings about the USA. We develop and apply new econometric models for linked survey and administrative data that generalize those of Kapteyn and... mehr

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    We contribute new UK evidence about measurement errors and employment earnings to a field dominated by findings about the USA. We develop and apply new econometric models for linked survey and administrative data that generalize those of Kapteyn and Ypma (Journal of Labor Economics, 2007). Our models incorporate mean-reverting measurement error in administrative data in addition to linkage mismatch and mean-reverting survey measurement error and 'reference period' error, while also allowing error distributions to vary across individuals. Annualised survey earnings underestimate true annual earnings on average. Mean-reversion in survey measurement errors is absent. Both earnings sources underestimate true earnings inequality. The survey earning measure is more reliable than the administrative data earnings measure, but hybrid earnings predictors based on both sources are distinctly more reliable than either source-specific measure. The models with heterogeneous measurement error distributions indicate how data quality may be improved. For example, for survey quality, our results highlight how respondents showing payslips to interviewers have smaller survey error variances. For administrative data, our results suggest that greater error variances are associated with non-standard jobs, private sector jobs, and employers without good payroll systems.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236436
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14405
    Schlagworte: measurement error; earnings; survey data; administrative data; finite mixture models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Profession and deception
    experimental evidence on lying behavior among business and medical students
    Autor*in: Besancenoty, Damien; Vranceanu, Radu P.
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  ESSEC Business School, [Cergy-Pontoise]

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    Schriftenreihe: ESSEC working paper ; 2006
    Schlagworte: Lies; deception; communication; medicine; business administration; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten)
  23. Do financial market experts know their theory?
    new evidence from survey data
    Autor*in: Brückbauer, Frank
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany

    Using a unique survey dataset, the author studies how financial market experts form their stock market expectations. He documents a strong disagreement among experts about how important macroeconomic and financial variables are related to stock... mehr

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    Using a unique survey dataset, the author studies how financial market experts form their stock market expectations. He documents a strong disagreement among experts about how important macroeconomic and financial variables are related to stock returns. The results of an analysis of the relationships between his main survey measure of expected returns and measures of economic conditions are largely consistent with theview that expected returns are counter-cyclical. In particular, the author finds a positive relationship between expected returns and the dividend-price ratio, which is at odds with the findings of previous papers studying survey measures of expected returns. Finally, he finds that an aggregated measure of the financial market experts’ stock return forecasts has weak predictive power for actual returns, but is a less precise forecast than a simple average of historical stock returns.

     
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    hdl: 10419/229139
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 20, 092 (12/2020)
    Schlagworte: stock market expectations; survey data; macro-finance; stock return predictability
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (52 Seiten)
  24. Perception of artificial intelligence in Spain
    Autor*in: Albarrán, Irene; Molina, José Manuel; Gijón, Covadonga
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  International Telecommunications Society, Online

    The present paper analyses perception of AI of individuals in Spain and the factors associated with it. Data on 6,308 individuals from the Spanish survey (CIS, 2018) are used. The data include several measures of perception, innovation, place of... mehr

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    The present paper analyses perception of AI of individuals in Spain and the factors associated with it. Data on 6,308 individuals from the Spanish survey (CIS, 2018) are used. The data include several measures of perception, innovation, place of residence (autonomous regions and province), gender, age, educational level, and other socioeconomic and technical variables. A binary logit regression model is formulated and estimated for the attitude towards robots and artificial intelligence and its possible determinants. The results indicate that people have a negative attitude if they are not interested in scientific discoveries and technological developments and if AI and robots are not helpful at work.

     
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    hdl: 10419/224843
    Schriftenreihe: ITS Conference : online event : 14th–17th June 2020 ; 18
    Schlagworte: perception; innovation; artificial intelligence; survey data; binary logit
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. All forecasters are not the same
    time-varying predictive ability across forecast environments
    Autor*in: Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph S.
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 21, 06 (February 2021)
    Schlagworte: professional forecasters; survey data; forecast accuracy; point forecasts; density forecasts; persistent heterogeneity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen