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  1. A neoclassical perspective on Switzerland's 1990s stagnation
    Autor*in: Stucki, Yannic; Thomet, Jacqueline
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Swiss National Bank, Zurich

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    Schriftenreihe: SNB working papers ; 2020, 22
    Schlagworte: Business cycle accounting; housing crises; stagnation; Switzerland
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Goodwin, Baumol & Lewis: how structural change can lead to inequality and stagnation
    Autor*in: Rada, Codrina; Schiavone, Ansel; Von Arnim, Rudiger
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  University of Utah, Department of Economics, [Salt Lake City, UT]

    This paper presents a classical-Keynesian one sector model of labor-constrained growth that explains secular stagnation as the result of structural change. Structural change is defined as an exogenous increase in the employment share of stagnant... mehr

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    This paper presents a classical-Keynesian one sector model of labor-constrained growth that explains secular stagnation as the result of structural change. Structural change is defined as an exogenous increase in the employment share of stagnant activities, which exhibit no or low labor productivity growth. We discuss two models: (i) a classical distributive cycle in employment rate and labor share, and (ii) a Keynes-Kalecki distributive cycle that adds the incomecapital ratio as state variable. Both versions consider labor productivity growth as endogenous to the labor share, reminiscent of induced technical change. Further, growth rates of labor productivity and real wages are assumed to respond negatively to structural change as proxied by the employment share of stagnant activities. Drawing on seminal theories of structural change, we label the positive (negative) difference between these effects dominant Lewis (Baumol) dynamics. In steady state, and across all model variants, the adverse effect of structural change on labor productivity leads to stagnation. However, only the Keynes-Kalecki version with dominant Lewis dynamics and a weak profit squeeze also exhibits a falling labor share.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261025
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / University of Utah, Department of Economics ; no: 2021, 04 (September 2021)
    Schlagworte: Strukturwandel; Arbeitsproduktivität; Stagnation; Konjunktur; Klassische Ökonomie; Keynesianismus; Konjunkturtheorie; Goodwin cycle; stagnation; structural change; reserve army
    Weitere Schlagworte: Baumol, William J. (1922-2017); Goodwin, Richard M. (1913-1996)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten)
  3. Offshoring via vertical FDI in a long-run Kaleckian model
    Autor*in: Woodgate, Ryan
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy Berlin, Berlin

    This paper develops a two-country Kaleckian model in which "Northern" firms invest a fixed fraction of total investment in foreign affiliates in the low-wage "South" in order to offshore the production of intermediate goods over time and lower... mehr

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    This paper develops a two-country Kaleckian model in which "Northern" firms invest a fixed fraction of total investment in foreign affiliates in the low-wage "South" in order to offshore the production of intermediate goods over time and lower overall labour costs. On the back of this setup follows an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of offshoring in the short and long run. Offshoring through vertical FDI is found to lead to a falling wage share and a simultaneously falling price level and rising mark-up in the North, whereas the effect on equilibrium capacity utilisation may be positive or negative. Interestingly, however, regardless of the effect on capacity utilisation and firm profitability, we can show that the structural change implied by offshoring leads to lower rates of capital accumulation and employment in the North relative to the initial (pre-offshoring) values in the short run. The long-run effects on Northern employment and growth, on the other hand, depend crucially on the long-run accumulation rate of the Northern-owned multinational firms. However, the model shows that, if wages endogenously converge during the transition due to higher unemployment in the North and lower unemployment in the South, then the long-run Northern capacity utilisation and accumulation rates are increasingly likely to fall relative to pre-offshoring values. The model appears well suited to shed light on many real-world macroeconomic phenomena, such as rising FDI flows, falling wage shares, rising mark-ups in an era of low inflation, hysteresis, and secular stagnation.

     
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    hdl: 10419/256802
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Institute for International Political Economy Berlin ; no. 182 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Offshoring; foreign direct investment; distribution; stagnation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Financialisation, varieties of macroeconomic regimes and stagnation tendencies in a stylised Kaleckian model
    Autor*in: Hein, Eckhard
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy Berlin, Berlin

    In this contribution, we review the research on the variety of macroeconomic demand and growth regimes in finance-dominated capitalism, on the regime shifts in the course of and after the 2007-09 crises, the drivers of these shifts and on the... mehr

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    In this contribution, we review the research on the variety of macroeconomic demand and growth regimes in finance-dominated capitalism, on the regime shifts in the course of and after the 2007-09 crises, the drivers of these shifts and on the emerging stagnation tendencies. Results of this research are integrated into a stylised Kaleckian distribution and growth model, which allows to derive the pre-crisis regimes and the following regime shifts. By means of endogenising productivity growth into that model, we also show that post-crises stagnation tendencies and falling potential growth can be explained by those financialisation features generating low capital stock growth, i.e. depressed animal spirits of management of nonfinancial corporations, high propensities to save out of the different types of income after the crises, low government expenditure and deficit rates, in particular in the export-led mercantilist countries, and high profit shares. The latter has an independent depressing effect on innovation activities of firms and on productivity growth, too, which is also negatively affected by falling government expenditures on R&D and education.

     
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    hdl: 10419/266472
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Institute for International Political Economy Berlin ; no. 193 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Financialisation; macroeconomic regimes; regime shifts; stagnation; Kaleckian model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Breaking free from the stability dogma
    Samuelson and the multiplier-accelerator model over the years
    Autor*in: Assous, Michaël; Boianovsky, Mauro
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Center for the History of Political Economy at Duke University, [Durham, NC]

    On the occasion of the centennial of his mentor Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson published in 1988 a modified version of his seminal 1939 multiplier-accelerator model with the specific aim to address aspects of Hansen's secular stagnation hypothesis. The... mehr

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    On the occasion of the centennial of his mentor Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson published in 1988 a modified version of his seminal 1939 multiplier-accelerator model with the specific aim to address aspects of Hansen's secular stagnation hypothesis. The "Keynes-Hansen-Samuelson" model (or KHS, as he called it) was built in order to provide an analysis of the effects of population growth on the trajectory of the economy. Several changes were then made. Instead of difference equations and a tight accelerator as in his 1939 model, Samuelson deployed differential equations and a flexible accelerator in order to produce a nonlinear limit cycle in the tradition of Richard Goodwin, as well as a life-cycle saving hypothesis. Despite Samuelson's strong claims for the analytical contributions of his 1988 paper, it has - in sharp contrast with the 1939 model - received only scant attention by macroeconomists and historians of economics alike. Samuelson's 1988 paper was his last published macroeconomic model, along the lines of his long established tradition of non-optimizing macro-dynamics. Our paper provides a close reading of Samuelson 1988, together with a discussion of how it historically links up with business cycle models advanced by John Hicks, Nicholas Kaldor, Roy Harrod and especially Goodwin, among others. Moreover, it investigates to what extent Samuelson's 1988 failure to attract a large readership has to do with the fact that macroeconomists' modelling strategy of endogenous business cycles changed sharply in the 1980s and after.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267712
    Auflage/Ausgabe: First preliminary draft, November 2022
    Schriftenreihe: CHOPE working paper ; no. 2022, 12 (November 2022)
    Schlagworte: stagnation; Samuelson; flexible accelerator; local instability; Hansen
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
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  6. Keynes' denial of conflict
    why The General Theory is a misleading guide to capitalism and stagnation
    Autor*in: Palley, Thomas
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf

    Keynes' General Theory was a massive step forward relative to classical economics, but it was also a step backward in its denial of the conflictual nature of capitalism. There is need to understand Keynes' technical contributions regarding the... mehr

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    Keynes' General Theory was a massive step forward relative to classical economics, but it was also a step backward in its denial of the conflictual nature of capitalism. There is need to understand Keynes' technical contributions regarding the workings of monetary economies, but also need to understand the flaws within his thinking and the consequences thereof. Keynes made a fundamental contribution elucidating the mechanism of effective demand, and he also has claim to be the preeminent monetary theorist. However, owing to his denial of conflict, he had a flawed view of capitalism which is why establishment Keynesianism struggles to explain contemporary stagnation. That flawed view also undermines the case for Social Democracy. Contrary to conventional wisdom, his view of capitalism is supportive of Neoliberalism and Keynes can be viewed as a compassionate (Third Way) Neoliberal.

     
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    hdl: 10419/274238
    Schriftenreihe: FMM working paper ; Nr. 88 (February 2023)
    Schlagworte: Keynes; The General Theory; conflict; capitalism; stagnation; bastard Keynesians
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Classical and Keynesian models of inequality and stagnation
    Autor*in: Rada, Codrina; Tavani, Daniele; Von Arnim, Rudiger; Zamparelli, Luca
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf

    This paper studies two formal models of long run growth with a medium-run distributive cycle, both of which feature causal links from the rise in inequality to a deterioration of long run macroeconomic performance. Both versions feature an endogenous... mehr

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    This paper studies two formal models of long run growth with a medium-run distributive cycle, both of which feature causal links from the rise in inequality to a deterioration of long run macroeconomic performance. Both versions feature an endogenous income-capital ratio: one through the Keynesian notion of effective demand, the other building on induced bias in technical change. A key focus of the analysis is on the assumptions necessary in both frameworks to generate policy implications consistent with the observed decline of the labor share, the income-capital ratio, and labor productivity growth during the neoliberal era. Importantly, both theories: (a) provide space for mutually reinforcing pro-labor and pro-growth policies in the long run, although they differ in the mechanisms at play in these processes; (b) imply a potential tradeoff between pro-labor policies and growth on one hand, and long-run employment on the other; (c) are consistent with the evidence on the distributive cycle at business cycle frequency.

     
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    hdl: 10419/274243
    Schriftenreihe: FMM working paper ; Nr. 83 (November 2022)
    Schlagworte: Distributive cycle; induced technical change; labor share; stagnation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Growth and sustainability in post-Keynesian perspective: some notes
    Autor*in: Heise, Arne
    Erschienen: Juni 2023
    Verlag:  Zentrum für Ökonomische und Soziologische Studien (ZÖSS), Universität Hamburg, Fakultät für Wirtschafts-und Sozialwissenschaften, Fachbereich Sozialökonomie, Hamburg

    It can hardly be denied that perhaps the most serious challenge to mankind has not yet been addressed properly by post-Keynesianism: the over-stretching of our planetary boundaries. Most of the resources which we need to sustain our lives are... mehr

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    It can hardly be denied that perhaps the most serious challenge to mankind has not yet been addressed properly by post-Keynesianism: the over-stretching of our planetary boundaries. Most of the resources which we need to sustain our lives are non-renewable and, therefore, limited. And most of our production processes produce some kind of joint product (externality) like air, ground or water pollution which hold no value to the producer and instead harm the environment upon disposal. Consequently, the existence of mankind on this planet may be threatened when indispensable resources such as energy are running out and the environmental damage changes our living conditions in a way that mankind cannot survive.

     
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    hdl: 10419/273371
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Zentrum für Ökonomische und Soziologische Studien ; 102
    Schlagworte: Ecological crisis; monetary production economy; zero growth; stagnation; growth imperative
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. What went wrong with Italy, and what the country should now fight for in Europe
    Autor*in: Cesaratto, Sergio; Zezza, Gennaro
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  Università di Siena, [Siena]

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    Schriftenreihe: Quaderni del Dipartimento di economia politica e statistica ; n. 786 (ottobre 2018)
    Schlagworte: Italy; stagnation; Eurozone; imbalances
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Financialisation and demand and growth regimes
    a review of post-Keynesian contributions
    Autor*in: Hein, Eckhard; Treeck, Till van
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  ifso, Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg, Germany

    We review post-Keynesian assessments of the macroeconomic demand and growth impacts of financialisation. First, we examine the channels of influence of financialisation on distribution and on the different components of private aggregate demand, i.e.... mehr

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    We review post-Keynesian assessments of the macroeconomic demand and growth impacts of financialisation. First, we examine the channels of influence of financialisation on distribution and on the different components of private aggregate demand, i.e. investment, consumption and net exports. Since increasing shareholder power and shareholder value orientation of management has been viewed as key to understanding the macroeconomics of financedominated capitalism, we start with the effects of financialisation in the context of the postKeynesian theory of the firm and explain the other channels from there. An important result is the emergence of 'profits without investment' demand and growth regimes, for which we point out the condition based on Kalecki's profit equation. The third section then turns to the post-Keynesian analysis of the different variants of 'profits without investment' demand and growth regimes in finance-dominated capitalism. We review the different levels of analysis, the national income and financial accounting de-composition approach as well as different attempts at identifying growth drivers. We argue that these different levels of analysis are complementary for our understanding of demand and growth regimes under financialisation.

     
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    hdl: 10419/285373
    Schriftenreihe: ifso working paper ; no. 32 (2024)
    Schlagworte: Financialisation; demand and growth regimes; stagnation; post-Keynesian distribution and growth models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. The great reversal
    Autor*in: Chrimes, Tommy; Gootjes, Bram; Kose, M. Ayhan; Wheeler, Collette
    Erschienen: 21 May 2024
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP19090
    Schlagworte: International Development Association; IDA; stagnation; convergence; developmentgap
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Changes in Ghanaian farming systems
    stagnation or a quiet transformation?
    Autor*in: Houssou, Nazaire; Johnson, Michael; Kolavalli, Shashidhara L.; Asante-Addo, Collins
    Erschienen: January 2016
    Verlag:  International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA

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    Schriftenreihe: IFPRI discussion paper ; 01504
    Schlagworte: intensification; farming systems; stagnation; Green Revolution; Ghana
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Deep recessions and slow recoveries
    Autor*in: Kirsanova, Tatiana; Nolan, Charles; Shafiei Deh Abad, Maryam
    Erschienen: 29 April 2016
    Verlag:  [University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School], [Glasgow]

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    Schriftenreihe: [Discussion papers / University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School ; 2016, 11]
    Schlagworte: financial frictions; credit boom; stagnation; ZLB
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen