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  1. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020-23
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 63
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    Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, and by 0.4 percentage points at the end of 2022. In contrast, the impact on measures of core inflation such as trimmed mean PCE inflation is only 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points in 2021 and 2022, respectively. These estimates already account for any increases in inflation expectations under the scenario. The peak response of the 1-year household inflation expectation would be 1.2 percentage points, while that of the 5-year expectation would be 0.2 percentage points.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249000
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9455 (2021)
    Schlagworte: scenario; inflation; expectation; oil price; gasoline price; household survey; core; pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Potential mobility from Africa, Middle East and EU neighbouring countries to Europe
    Autor*in: Mara, Isilda; Landesmann, Michael; Grieveson, Richard
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche, Wien

    Migration from Africa and the Middle East to the EU has intensified over the last two decades. Relative differences between developed EU and less developed African and Middle East countries have not declined that much and continue to drive mobility.... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Migration from Africa and the Middle East to the EU has intensified over the last two decades. Relative differences between developed EU and less developed African and Middle East countries have not declined that much and continue to drive mobility. Also, demographic trends show a strong contrast between the population of the EU (ageing and shrinking rapidly) and that of Africa and the Middle East (young and continuously increasing). Apart from demographic pressures and development gaps, other forces related to conflicts and wars, as well as climate risks, have become important drivers of mobility and are not expected to fade away soon. Anticipating migration flows in order to ensure better management and regulated mobility has become essential, although this is an exercise subject to high uncertainty. With these caveats in mind, this study seeks to calculate long-term potential mobility from Africa, the Middle East and Eastern EU neighbouring countries to EU28 and EFTA by applying a migration gravity model following a scenario-based approach. Projections for 2020-2029 suggest that migration flows to the EU from Africa, in particular, will dominate the South-North mobility corridor. Migration policies will also play a role in shaping future migration trends, as migration flows are subject to EU destination countries' applying restrictive migration policies.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/240642
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / wiiw ; 199
    Schlagworte: International Migration; forecasting; scenario; gravity model; EU; Africa
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Using macro-financial models to simulate macroeconomic developments during the Covid-19 pandemic
    the case of Albania
    Autor*in: Skufi, Lorena; Gersl, Adam
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Prague

    The recent Covid-19 pandemic has increased the importance of properly forecasting macro-financial developments in turbulent times. Only a limited number of studies focus on how to employ macro-financial models to project key real and financial sector... mehr

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    The recent Covid-19 pandemic has increased the importance of properly forecasting macro-financial developments in turbulent times. Only a limited number of studies focus on how to employ macro-financial models to project key real and financial sector variables under large shocks and unusual assumptions. The aim of this paper is to examine whether a pre-constrained linear model can project the developments seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. We develop a macro-financial model for Albania and, using suitable assumptions, run two types of simulations and compare the results with the outturn. We also take into account the increased forecast risk by constructing uncertainty bands using a quantile regression approach. The results indicate that a linear model is flexible enough to analyse non-linear events and be used in abnormal times, but its precision is lower especially due to the government measures such as repayment moratoria that broke the link between the real and financial sector.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/272797
    Schriftenreihe: IES working paper ; 2022, 24
    Schlagworte: macro-financial model; scenario; quantile regression; uncertainty bands; pandemic
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Ten-year regional outlook
    future perspectives for electric aviation in the Nordic region
    Autor*in: Cavicchia, Rebecca; Tybjerg, Jonas Kačkus; Salonen, Hilma; Brynteson, Maja; Wendt-Lucas, Nicola; Sæunn Gísladóttir; Hjalti Jóhannesson
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Nordregio, Stockholm, Sweden

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789180010955
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Nordregio report ; 2024, 8
    Schlagworte: electric aviation; outlook; Nordic region; future; scenario; regions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 111 Seiten), Illustrationen