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  1. A risk analysis on geographical concentration of global supply chains
    Autor*in: Inomata, Satoshi; Hanaka, Tesshu
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), JETRO, Chiba, Japan

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: IDE discussion paper ; no. 828
    Schlagworte: risk assessment; global supply chains; choke points; input-output analysis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Prison rehabilitation programs: efficiency and targeting
    Autor*in: Arbour, William; Lacroix, Guy; Marchand, Steeve
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Increasing evidence suggests that incarceration, under certain circumstances, can improve inmates' social reintegration upon release. Yet, the mechanisms through which incarceration can lead to successful rehabilitation remain largely unknown. This... mehr

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    Increasing evidence suggests that incarceration, under certain circumstances, can improve inmates' social reintegration upon release. Yet, the mechanisms through which incarceration can lead to successful rehabilitation remain largely unknown. This paper finds that participation in social rehabilitation programs while incarcerated can significantly reduce recidivism. This result is entirely driven by inmates whose risk and needs were evaluated by a widely used assessment tool identifying their criminogenic needs. For this group, we estimate that participation in these programs reduces recidivism by about 9 percentage points within three years following release. Our results suggest targeting criminogenic needs is crucial for successful rehabilitation. We also find considerable heterogeneous program treatment effects: inmates with a high overall risk score, or who exhibit procriminal attitudes, benefit little if at all from program participation. We investigate the stability of the treatment effect coefficients and conclude they unlikely suffer from an omitted variable bias.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232774
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14022
    Schlagworte: incarceration; recidivism; rehabilitation programs; risk assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Exploring gender perceptions of nuclear energy in India
    Autor*in: Govindan, Mini; Mohan, M. P. Ram
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, [Ahmedabad]

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    Schriftenreihe: IIMA working paper ; W.P. no. 2021, 11-06
    Schlagworte: nuclear energy; gender perceptions; risk assessment; Kakrapar Atomic Power Station; livelihood
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The risk of corporate lock-in to future physical climate risks
    the case of flood risk in England and Wales
    Autor*in: Mathews, Shilpita; Roezer, Viktor; Surminski, Swenja
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy working paper ; no. 399
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 372
    Schlagworte: lock-in; SME; flooding; climate change; risk disclosure; risk assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. National risk assessment of money laundering and terrorist financing 2021
    Autor*in: Isoaho, Essi; Kaski, Ida-Ellen
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Ministry of Finance, Helsinki

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789523672673
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Publications of the Ministry of Finance ; 2022, 41
    Schlagworte: money laundering; terrorism; economic crime; risks; risk assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 176 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Fire sales and ex ante valuation of systemic risk
    a financial equilibrium networks approach
    Autor*in: Bougheas, Spiros P.; Spencer, Adam Hal
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We introduce endogenous fire sales into a simple network model. For any given initial distribution of shocks across the network, we develop a clearing algorithm to solve for the financial equilibrium. We then utilise the results to perform ex ante... mehr

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    We introduce endogenous fire sales into a simple network model. For any given initial distribution of shocks across the network, we develop a clearing algorithm to solve for the financial equilibrium. We then utilise the results to perform ex ante risk assessment and derive risk premia for every balance sheet item where liabilities are differentiated according to priority rights. We find that risk premia reflect both idiosyncratic risk and risk of contagion (network risk). Moreover, we show that network risk magnifies the gap between the risk premia of equity and debt. We also perform comparative statics, showing that changes to the distribution of shocks and network structure can have substantial effects on the level of systemic losses.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/267343
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10111 (2022)
    Schlagworte: networks; fire sales; systemic risk premia; risk assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Criminal charges, risk assessment and violent recidivism in cases of domestic abuse
    Autor*in: Black, Dan A.; Grogger, Jeff; Kirchmaier, Tom; Sanders, Koen
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Performance ; no. 1897 (January 2023)
    Schlagworte: domestic abuse; charges; risk assessment; propensity score weighting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Criminal charges, risk assessment, and violent recidivism in cases of domestic abuse
    Autor*in: Black, Dan A.; Grogger, Jeff; Kirchmaier, Tom; Sanders, Koen
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Domestic abuse is a pervasive global problem. Here we analyze two approaches to reducing violent DA recidivism. One involves charging the perpetrator with a crime; the other provides protective services to the victim on the basis of a formal risk... mehr

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    Domestic abuse is a pervasive global problem. Here we analyze two approaches to reducing violent DA recidivism. One involves charging the perpetrator with a crime; the other provides protective services to the victim on the basis of a formal risk assessment carried out by the police. We use detailed administrative data to estimate the average effect of treatment on the treated using inverse propensity-score weighting (IPW). We then make use of causal forests to study heterogeneity in the estimated treatment effects. We find that pressing charges substantially reduces the likelihood of violent recidivism. The analysis also reveals substantial heterogeneity in the effect of pressing charges. In contrast, the risk-assessment process has no discernible effect.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/272512
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15885
    Schlagworte: domestic abuse; charges; risk assessment; propensity score weighting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Households' financial resilience, risk perceptions, and financial literacy
    evidence from a survey experiment
    Autor*in: Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Fessler, Pirmin; Silgoner, Maria Antoinette
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany

    We examine the financial resilience of Austrian households, relating it to their experience of financial shocks earlier in life and to their financial literacy. We find that previous negative (positive) financial shocks are negatively (positively)... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    We examine the financial resilience of Austrian households, relating it to their experience of financial shocks earlier in life and to their financial literacy. We find that previous negative (positive) financial shocks are negatively (positively) related to financial resilience. Financial literacy and households’ financial resilience are positively related. Based on a randomized survey experiment, we investigate the role of over-optimism when evaluating the potential impact of future events on households’ financial situation. Households are asked to assess specific risks for their own household (treatment) or for a household with similar characteristics (control). On average, households assign a lower probability to shocks that negatively affect personal finances if asked for their own household compared to a similar household. We do not find the reverse effect for positive shocks. We find a negative correlation between over-optimism and financial literacy, indicating that financial literacy is relevant to both, financial behavior and the ability to assess financial shocks.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283612
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: 21 December 2023
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 23, 074 (12/2023)
    Schlagworte: financial fragility; expectations; risk assessment; financial behavior; over-optimism
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. A novel test for the presence of local explosive dynamics
    Autor*in: Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mingoli, Gabriele; Telg, Sean
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    In economics and finance, speculative bubbles take the form of locally explosive dynamics that eventually collapse. We propose a test for the presence of speculative bubbles in the context of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive processes. The test... mehr

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    In economics and finance, speculative bubbles take the form of locally explosive dynamics that eventually collapse. We propose a test for the presence of speculative bubbles in the context of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive processes. The test exploits the fact that bubbles are anticipative, that is, they are generated by an extreme shock in the forwardlooking dynamics. In particular, the test uses both path level deviations and growth rates to assess the presence of a bubble of given duration and size, at any moment of time. We show that the distribution of the test statistic can be either analytically determined or numerically approximated, depending on the error distribution. Size and power properties of the test are analyzed in controlled Monte Carlo experiments. An empirical application is presented for a monthly oil price index. It demonstrates the ability of the test to detect bubbles and to provide valuable insights in terms of risk assessments in the spirit of Value-at-Risk.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2024, 036
    Schlagworte: noncausality; bubbles; testing; date-stamping; risk assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Risky oil
    it's all in the tails
    Autor*in: Baumeister, Christiane; Huber, Florian; Marcellino, Massimiliano
    Erschienen: 2024
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP19129
    Schlagworte: risk assessment; BART; Quantile regression; tail forecast; Bvar; factor stochasticvolatility; Asymmetry
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen