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  1. Fiscal sustainability and low interest rates
    a note
    Autor*in: Werding, Martin
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    In this paper, I demonstrate that an indicator which is commonly used to assess the long-term fiscal sustainability of public finances in EU member states (“S2”) is also defined if government borrowing rates are assumed to be permanently lower than... mehr

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    In this paper, I demonstrate that an indicator which is commonly used to assess the long-term fiscal sustainability of public finances in EU member states (“S2”) is also defined if government borrowing rates are assumed to be permanently lower than the growth rate of GDP. I illustrate this finding based on simulations prepared for the Fifth Sustainability Report published by the German Federal Ministry of Finance. In addition, I discuss the interpretation of the indicator in a low-interest environment and the assumption that relevant interest rates continue to be low if there are substantial challenges for fiscal sustainability, e.g., through demographic ageing.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232458
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8861 (2021)
    Schlagworte: public budget; public debt; fiscal sustainability; interest rates
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Climate policy and optimal public debt
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper analyzes the optimal level of public debt when taxes are used not only for funding public expenditures but also for correcting externalities from climate change. Taking into account externalities implies that the optimal policy deviates... mehr

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    This paper analyzes the optimal level of public debt when taxes are used not only for funding public expenditures but also for correcting externalities from climate change. Taking into account externalities implies that the optimal policy deviates from tax smoothing. Provided cumulative marginal damages are larger from today's than from tomorrow's emissions, the internalization of externalities decreases [increases] optimal debt if tax rates are on the increasing [decreasing] side of the Laffer curve. The reversed holds if the cumulative marginal damages increase over time. Allowing for endogenous adaptation investments reduces the deviation from tax-smoothing, but nevertheless increases optimal debt.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232462
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8865 (2021)
    Schlagworte: environmental externality; public debt; tax smoothing
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Public debt and inflation dynamics
    empirical evidence from Zimbabwe
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  University of South Africa, [Pretoria]

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    Schriftenreihe: UNISA economic research working paper series ; 2021, 23 (November 2021)
    Schlagworte: ARDL; inflation; public debt; Zimbabwe
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The relationship between government debt and economic growth in South Africa with specific reference to Eskom
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  University of South Africa, [Pretoria]

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    Schriftenreihe: UNISA economic research working paper series ; 2021, 18 (October 2021)
    Schlagworte: South Africa; Eskom; public debt; economic growth; ARDL and bound test
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The reform of the European Union's fiscal governance framework in a new macroeconomic environment

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos ocasionales / Banco de España ; no. 2121
    Schlagworte: fiscal policy; fiscal governance; fiscal rules; public debt; public deficit; interest rates
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Politique monétaire et politique du crédit en France pendant les Trente Glorieuses 1945-1973
    Autor*in: Monnet, Eric
    Erschienen: [2012]

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    Sprache: Französisch; Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
    Format: Online
    Schlagworte: Credit policy; credit controls; monetary policy; central banking; Bretton Woods; industrial policy; Trente Glorieuses; Post-war growth; economic planning; public debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 445 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Dissertation, Ecole des hautes études en sciences sociales, 2012

  7. Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria
    an ARDL bounds test approach
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  University of South Africa, [Pretoria]

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    Schriftenreihe: UNISA economic research working paper series ; 2021, 14 (July 2021)
    Schlagworte: public debt; inflation; ARDL; Nigeria
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Can monetary policy create fiscal capacity?
    Erschienen: 31 July 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16414
    Schlagworte: monetary policy; Fiscal policy; public debt; Quantitative easing; forward guidance; Longrunrisk
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Towards HIPC 2.0?
    lessons from past debt relief initiatives for addressing current debt problems
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  IOB, Institute of Development Policy, University of Antwerp, Antwerpen, Belgium

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / IOB, Institute of Development Policy, University of Antwerp ; 2021, 02
    Schlagworte: public debt; debt relief; Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative; Debt Service Suspension Initiative; G20 Common Framework
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Assessing the fiscal implications of banking crises
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 893 (October 2020)
    Schlagworte: banking crises; public debt; fiscal space; fiscal buffers; macro-financial stability framework
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. The liquidity channel of fiscal policy
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    We provide evidence that expansionary fiscal policy lowers return differences between public debt and less liquid assets-the liquidity premium. We rationalize this finding in an estimated heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model with incomplete... mehr

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    We provide evidence that expansionary fiscal policy lowers return differences between public debt and less liquid assets-the liquidity premium. We rationalize this finding in an estimated heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice, in which public debt affects private liquidity. This liquidity channel stabilizes fixed-capital investment. We then quantify the long-run effects of higher public debt and find little crowding out of capital, but a sizable decline of the liquidity premium, which increases the fiscal burden of debt. We show that the revenue-maximizing level of public debt is positive and has increased to 60 percent of GDP post-2010.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/235238
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: April 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 351 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Business cycles; fiscal policy; HANK; incomplete markets; liquidity premium; public debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Establishing a fiscal dialogue in Europe
    Autor*in: Creel, Jérôme
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  OFCE, Paris, France

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    Schriftenreihe: Sciences Po OFCE working paper ; no 2021, 7
    Schlagworte: Fiscal policy; public debt; fiscal governance; European Union
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten)
  13. Environment, public debt and epidemics
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Aix-Marseille School of Economics, [Aix-en-Provence

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / AMSE, Aix-Marseille School of Economics ; WP 2021, nr 28
    Schlagworte: Epidemics; pollution; overlapping generations; public debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten)
  14. Public debt and inflation
    empirical evidence from Ghana
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  University of South Africa, [Pretoria]

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    Schriftenreihe: UNISA economic research working paper series ; 2021, 1 (January 2021)
    Schlagworte: public debt; inflation; ARDL; Ghana
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Environmental pollution & the political economy of public debt
    Erschienen: 27th February 2020
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    This paper analyzes the political economy of government debt when elected politicians decide about the distribution of public funds between a clean and a polluting public good. When provision of the polluting good creates a stock of climate... mehr

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    This paper analyzes the political economy of government debt when elected politicians decide about the distribution of public funds between a clean and a polluting public good. When provision of the polluting good creates a stock of climate externalities, strategic incentives for the incumbent government arise from both a budget and emission interaction. In this framework, reelection uncertainty leads to inefficiently low public savings (or even debt) which are attenuated by the emission interaction, while first period pollution decreases regardless of the future government's identity. If the incumbent government competes for office against an environmentalists' party, the total welfare loss from emissions also decreases as a direct result of reelection uncertainty.

     

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    hdl: 10419/224561
    Schriftenreihe: Jahrestagung 2020 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 75
    Schlagworte: emission externality; public debt; political economy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Fiscal policy challenges for Latin America during the next stages of the pandemic
    the need for a fiscal pact
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    The fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 shock in most LAC countries was much larger than during the GFC, suggesting fiscal space was not as tight as expected. We argue that it is feasible and desirable, though not without risks, to embark in a... mehr

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    The fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 shock in most LAC countries was much larger than during the GFC, suggesting fiscal space was not as tight as expected. We argue that it is feasible and desirable, though not without risks, to embark in a more gradual consolidation path than currently envisaged by several countries in the region. Avoiding an early withdrawal of support in 2021 and 2022 is important given that countries are still facing high rates of contagion and deaths, vaccination will take place very slowly, the economic recovery is partial, uncertain and not strong enough to help those most affected by the twin public health and economic crisis. At the center of this discussion is our conviction that fiscal space is not set in stone and it is endogenous to the medium-term targets and commitments undertaken by governments and congresses throughout the region. Also, revisions to fiscal responsibility frameworks should help anchor fiscal sustainability, as well as improve their effectiveness and flexibility. In this context, low-for-long interest rates and easy market access is generating a situation that, in spite of higher debt levels, interest cost on public debt will remain contained in the foreseeable future. Especially if, as argued in this paper, a more gradual fiscal consolidation path is accompanied with stronger commitments and institutional frameworks that ensure debt is put on a credible downward trajectory once the pandemic is under control. Catalyzing these changes, as well as initiating the debate to design other fiscal reforms to strengthen social protection and increase the progressivity of public finances, would require a broad social consensus and political cohesion around several crucial dimensions of public finances: a fiscal pact. On the other hand, if this agenda is neglected the continuation of low growth, social discontent, and political polarization could drive Latin America towards a very dangerous path of institutional and economic decay

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9781513574332
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 77
    Schlagworte: fiscal policy; fiscal space; public debt; Debt Ratio; Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Space; Lac Country; Public Debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Public debt and the political economy of reforms
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We develop a two-period model of redistributive politics in which two politicians compete in an election in each period. In the first period, the politicians propose both whether to experiment with an efficient reform with uncertain benefits and... mehr

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    We develop a two-period model of redistributive politics in which two politicians compete in an election in each period. In the first period, the politicians propose both whether to experiment with an efficient reform with uncertain benefits and choose the amount of public debt. Politicians also allocate pork-barrel spending to voters in each period. We show that allowing politicians to raise debt ensures that the reform is always implemented when the reform’s ratio of private good to public good gains exceeds a threshold, i.e. the reform generates enough private good benefits. This is not the case when the reform’s ratio of private good to public good gains is below this threshold. We also examine hard and a soft debt limits, and find that both limits reduce the political success of the reform. However, at moderate debt levels soft limits dominate hard limits with respect to equilibrium efficiency of reform provision.

     

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    hdl: 10419/235332
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8962 (2021)
    Schlagworte: political competition; public debt; reforms; redistributive politics; debt and spending limits
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. History remembered
    optimal sovereign default on domestic and external debt
    Erschienen: July 2019
    Verlag:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; 19, 31 (July 2019)
    Schlagworte: public debt; sovereign default; debt crisis; European crisis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 88 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Essays on fiscal sustainability in Algeria
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Economic Research Forum (ERF), Dokki, Giza, Egypt

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    Schriftenreihe: ERF working papers series ; no. 1540 (February 2022)
    Schlagworte: Fiscal sustainability; fiscal space; fiscal reaction function; fiscal fatigue; public debt; economic growth; regression kink; non-linearity; threshold effects
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and... mehr

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    We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and one-period lagged public debt-to-GDP ratio; and public debt-to-GDP ratio and one-period lagged primary government balance. The estimated fiscal reaction functions suggest the existence of a Ricardian fiscal regime. Finally, modelling via time-varying coefficients, we find that fiscal sustainability increases with growth, fiscal balances and fiscal rules indices, and decreases with trade openness, current account balances, government effectiveness index, after 2010, and with sovereign ratings assigned by the main rating agencies.

     

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    hdl: 10419/260765
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9635 (2022)
    Schlagworte: fiscal sustainability; budget balance; public debt; panel data; time-varying coefficients; Eurozone; sovereign ratings
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Growth led by government expenditure and exports
    public and external debt stability in a supermultiplier model
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Università di Siena, [Siena]

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    Schriftenreihe: Quaderni del Dipartimento di economia politica e statistica ; n. 862 (ottobre 2021)
    Schlagworte: Sraffian supermultiplier; Thirlwall’s Law; demand-led growth; public debt; external debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Fiscal policy after the crisis
    what role for fiscal policy in times of crisis, low interest rates and high public debts?
    Autor*in: Heise, Arne
    Erschienen: Februar 2022
    Verlag:  Zentrum für Ökonomische und Soziologische Studien (ZÖSS), Universität Hamburg, Fakultät für Wirtschafts-und Sozialwissenschaften, Hamburg

    In 2009, just before the full outbreak of the global financial crisis, Olivier Blanchard (2009) published an article giving a favourable appraisal of the state of macroeconomics. He came to this verdict on the basis that, after a long period of... mehr

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    In 2009, just before the full outbreak of the global financial crisis, Olivier Blanchard (2009) published an article giving a favourable appraisal of the state of macroeconomics. He came to this verdict on the basis that, after a long period of fierce theoretical debate, the discipline had converged on a model known as new consensus macroeconomics (NCM). In the models that made up NCM, fiscal policy played no role – or, to be more precise, fiscal policy had to follow a balanced-budget rule, with the task of stabilising an economy over the business cycle entrusted entirely to monetary policy (following a Taylor rule). And in the midst of the global financial crisis, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (2010) proposed the figure of 90% of GDP as a threshold level for public debt which, if exceeded, would harm economic growth, leaving fiscal austerity as the best way to trigger economic recovery. Only a decade later, the economics profession now appears to have taken a very different view on fiscal policy: in order to cope with the next economic crisis, resulting from the coronavirus pandemic, most economists recommend an active fiscal policy stance and even a huge increase in debt-to-GDP levels. This paper will shed some light on these developments in economic policymaking and explore the future of fiscal policy.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251512
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Zentrum für Ökonomische und Soziologische Studien ; 92
    Schlagworte: Fiscal policy; public debt; stabilisation policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten)
  23. Testimony before the congress of deputies budget committee on 25 october 2021 and before the senate budget committee on 30 november 2021 in relation to the draft state budget for 2022
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos ocasionales / Banco de España ; no. 2130
    Schlagworte: Draft State Budget; macroeconomic forecast; outlook; sources of uncertainty; role of economic policies; fiscal policy; public debt; public finances sustainability; quality of public finances; efficiency; NGEU; Stability and Growth Pact
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 95 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Green bonds
    the sovereign issuers' perspective
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  Banca d'Italia, Rome, Italy

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; number 3
    Schlagworte: green bonds; public debt; debt management
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. The emergence of debt and secular stagnation in an unequal society
    a stockflow consistent agent-based approach
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Linz

    We use an agent-based stock-flow consistent model of a closed economy without technological change that considers different classes of households, status consumption and a Minskyan banking sector to analyze the relationship between rising saving... mehr

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    We use an agent-based stock-flow consistent model of a closed economy without technological change that considers different classes of households, status consumption and a Minskyan banking sector to analyze the relationship between rising saving rates, the accumulation and distribution of private financial wealth and the evolution of public debt. Conducting a series of experiments, we find evidence for Keynes' famous claim that a rise in the propensity to save will not necessarily be matched by a rise in the propensity to invest, culminating in either chronic government deficits or consistently high unemployment rates if the government refuses to accept those deficits. The result emerges endogenously from the interaction of fully decentralized agents. The model indicates that promoting consumer credit can at best provide a very short-lived relief to this problem.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/250410
    Schriftenreihe: ICAE working paper series ; no. 135 (January 2022)
    Schlagworte: propensity to save; wealth accumulation; public debt; unequal distribution of income and wealth; consumer credit; household bankruptcy agent-based stock-flow consistent modeling
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen