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  1. Equity premium predictability over the business cycle
    Autor*in: Mönch, Emanuel; Stein, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an... mehr

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    Standort:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 12
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using the term spread as predictor time the beginning of recessions well. We show that such model-implied recession probabilities strongly improve equity premium prediction out-of-sample. We document a structural break in the mean of the term spread in 1982. When correcting for this break, the forecast performance further strengthens, outperforming other recently proposed benchmark predictors.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783957298331
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/240197
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2021, 25
    Schlagworte: Recession predictability; return predictability; business cycle; probit model; term spread
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 75 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Return migration and entrepreneurship in Cameroon
    Autor*in: Tamwo, Sévérin; Gandjon Fankem, Ghislain Stéphane; Taka, Dieudonné
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    In this paper, we examine the determinants of the entrepreneurial behaviour of returnees to Cameroon based on original survey data from 2012. Contrary to the existing literature, we focus on the skills received from abroad without omitting the effect... mehr

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 248
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    In this paper, we examine the determinants of the entrepreneurial behaviour of returnees to Cameroon based on original survey data from 2012. Contrary to the existing literature, we focus on the skills received from abroad without omitting the effect of savings. We distinguish between three types of competences related to qualifications. We also differentiate between the probability of starting a business in the primary sector and the probability of starting a business in the tertiary sector. The main results, obtained from a probit model, show that: (i) degrees and qualifications and qualifications acquired abroad do not positively influence the probability of migrants to undertake a new activity once back home; in contrast, accumulated savings, captured by the time spent abroad, have a positive influence; (ii) other qualifications have no influence on the entrepreneurial behaviour of return migrants; and (iii) the entrepreneurial behaviour of return migrants is not oriented towards the primary sector but rather towards the tertiary sector. These results are robust when we account for endogeneity

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789292672065
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/267823
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2022, 75
    Schlagworte: returnees; skills; entrepreneurship; probit model; endogeneity; Cameroon
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Another look at the linear probability model and nonlinear index models
    Autor*in: Chen, Kaicheng; Martin, Robert S.; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices and Living Conditions, Washington, DC

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: BLS working papers ; 569 (October 16, 2023)
    Schlagworte: Binary response; linear probability model; average partial effect; nonlinear least square; probit model; ;
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Decision to emigrate amongst the youth in Lebanon
    Autor*in: Dibeh, Ghassan; Fakih, Ali; Marrouch, Walid
    Erschienen: January 2017
    Verlag:  CIRANO, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations, Montréal

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Scientific series / CIRANO, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations ; 2017s-04
    Schlagworte: Emigration; youth; Lebanon; probit model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)