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  1. Expectations, self-fulfilling prophecies and the business cycle
    Autor*in: Dufourt, Frédéric; Nishimura, Kazuo; Venditti, Alain
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  [Aix-Marseille School of Economics], [Aix-en-Provence

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 717
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Revised: October 2022
    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / AMSE, Aix-Marseille School of Economics ; WP 2022, nr 34
    Schlagworte: Indeterminacy; one and two-sector models; endogenous labor supply; income effect; productive externalities; permanent and transitory shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Dynamic hysteresis effects
    Autor*in: Li, Mengheng; Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  University of Utah, Department of Economics, [Salt Lake City, UT]

    We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the long-run... mehr

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    DS 210
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    We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the long-run recession-induced adverse effects from other trend-cycle interactions. The proposed models nest several existing UC models in the literature and accommodate two key characteristics of output dynamics: non-neutrality in the long-run and the time-to-build effect. Using Bayesian estimation methods, we find robust evidence supporting the presence of hysteresis effects after the 1970s, with the negative long-run effect of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 recessions robustly identified. Via Bayesian model averaging, we provide precise and intuitive output gap estimates that highlight the relationship between business cycle fluctuations and the decline in economic growth. Our findings indicate that output trend-cycle decompositions that do not consider hysteresis effects can alter stabilization policy trade-offs.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / University of Utah, Department of Economics ; no: 2024, 01 (January 2024)
    Schlagworte: hysteresis; time-to-build effect; trends and cycles; permanent and transitory shocks; state space models; unobserved components
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Estimation and assessment of measures of the natural rate of interest: evidence from Latin American economies with inflation targeting
    Autor*in: Lahura, Erick; Vega, Marco
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  [Banco Central de Reserva del Perú], [Lima, Peru]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Banco Central de Reserva del Perú ; DT. no. 2023, 014 (diciembre 2023)
    Schlagworte: Natural rate of interest; monetary policy; TVP-VARSV; money velocity; permanent and transitory shocks; LATAM-5
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten), Illustrationen