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  1. Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r*?
    Autor*in: Andrade, Philippe; Galí, Jordi; Le Bihan, Hervé; Matheron, Julien
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  GSE, Graduate School of Economics, Barcelona

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Barcelona GSE working paper series ; no 1236
    Schlagworte: inflation target; effective lower bound; monetary policy strategy; euro-area
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The emergence of forward guidance as a monetary policy tool
    Autor*in: Nelson, Edward
    Erschienen: May 7, 2021
    Verlag:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2021, 033
    Schlagworte: Forward guidance; monetary policy tools; monetary policy strategy; interest-rate forecasts; interest-rate lower bound; Federal Open Market Committee; Federal Reserve
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy
    Erschienen: [September 2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper assesses how globalisation has shaped the economic environment in which the ECB operates and discusses whether this warrants adjustments to the monetary policy strategy. The paper first looks at how trade and financial integration have... mehr

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    This paper assesses how globalisation has shaped the economic environment in which the ECB operates and discusses whether this warrants adjustments to the monetary policy strategy. The paper first looks at how trade and financial integration have evolved since the last strategy review in 2003. It then examines the effects of these developments on global productivity growth, the natural interest rate (r*), inflation trends and monetary transmission. While trade globalisation initially boosted productivity growth, this effect may be waning as trade integration slows and market contestability promotes a winner-takes-all environment. The impact of globalisation on r* has been ambiguous: downward pressures, fuelled by global demand for safe assets and an increase in the propensity to save against a background of rising inequality, are counteracted by upward pressures, from the boost to global productivity associated with greater trade integration. Headline inflation rates have become more synchronised globally, largely because commodity prices are increasingly determined by global factors. Meanwhile, core inflation rates show a lower degree of commonality. Globalisation has made a rather modest contribution to the synchronised fall in trend inflation across countries and contributed only moderately to the reduction in the responsiveness of inflation to changes in activity. Regarding monetary transmission, globalisation has made the role of the exchange rate more complex by introducing new mechanisms through which it affects financial conditions, real activity and price dynamics. Against the background of this discussion, the paper then examines the implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. In doing so, it asks two questions. How is the ECB’s economic and monetary analysis affected by globalisation? And how does globalisation influence the choice of the ECB's monetary policy objective and instruments? ...

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789289944700
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/246194
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 263 (September 2021)
    ECB strategy review
    Schlagworte: Globalisation; monetary policy strategy; r*; inflation; productivity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (93 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The ECB's price stability framework
    past experience, and current and future challenges
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The ECB's price stability mandate has been defined by the Treaty. But the Treaty has not spelled out what price stability precisely means. To make the mandate operational, the Governing Council has provided a quantitative definition in 1998 and a... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 535
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    The ECB's price stability mandate has been defined by the Treaty. But the Treaty has not spelled out what price stability precisely means. To make the mandate operational, the Governing Council has provided a quantitative definition in 1998 and a clarification in 2003. The landscape has changed notably compared to the time the strategy review was originally designed. At the time, the main concern of the Governing Council was to anchor inflation at low levels in face of the inflationary history of the previous decades. Over the last decade economic conditions have changed dramatically: the persistent low-inflation environment has created the concrete risk of de-anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations. Addressing low inflation is different from addressing high inflation. The ability of the ECB (and central banks globally) to provide the necessary accommodation to maintain price stability has been tested by the lower bound on nominal interest rates in the context of the secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate. Against this backdrop, this report analyses: the ECB's performance as measured against its formulation of price stability; whether it is possible to identify a preferred level of steady-state inflation on the basis of optimality considerations; advantages and disadvantages of formulating the objective in terms of a focal point or a range, or having both; whether the medium-term orientation of the ECB's policy can serve as a mechanism to cater for other considerations; how to strengthen, in the presence of the lower bound, the ECB's leverage on private-sector expectations for inflation and the ECB’s future policy actions so that expectations can act as "automatic stabilisers" and work alongside the central bank.

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9789289948234
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/246200
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 269 (September 2021)
    ECB strategy review
    Schlagworte: European Central Bank; price stability; monetary policy strategy; effective lower bound; euro area
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (128 Seiten), Illustrationen, Diagramme
  5. Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r*?
    Autor*in: Andrade, Philippe; Galí, Jordi; Le Bihan, Hervé; Matheron, Julien
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Department of Economics and Business, Barcelona

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: Updated version: April 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Economic working paper series ; no. 1767
    Schlagworte: inflation target; effective lower bound; monetary policy strategy; euro-area
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r*?
    Autor*in: Andrade, Philippe; Galí, Jordi; Le Bihan, Hervé; Matheron, Julien
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  [Federal Reserve Bank of Boston], [Boston]

    We address the question in this paper's title using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model of the euro area with trend inflation, imperfect indexation, and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a decrease in the steady-state real... mehr

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    We address the question in this paper's title using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model of the euro area with trend inflation, imperfect indexation, and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a decrease in the steady-state real interest rate, r*, increases the probability of hitting the lower bound constraint, which entails significant welfare costs and warrants an adjustment of the monetary policy strategy. Under an unchanged monetary policy rule, an increase in the inflation target of eighttenths the size of the drop in the real natural rate of interest is warranted. Absent an increase in the inflation target, and assuming the effective lower bound prevents the European Central Bank from implementing more aggressive negative interest rate policies, adjusting the monetary strategy requires considering alternative instruments or policy rules, such as a commitment to make up for recent, belowtarget inflation realizations.

     
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    hdl: 10419/250738
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: April 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ; no. 22, 1
    Schlagworte: inflation target; effective lower bound; monetary policy strategy; euro area
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The Eurozone as an inflation target zone
    Autor*in: Della Posta, Pompeo; Tamborini, Roberto
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    In the revised monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB), "price stability is best maintained by aiming for two per cent inflation over the medium term", with "symmetric commitment" to this target. "Symmetry means that the Governing... mehr

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    In the revised monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB), "price stability is best maintained by aiming for two per cent inflation over the medium term", with "symmetric commitment" to this target. "Symmetry means that the Governing Council considers negative and positive deviations from this target as equally undesirable". In this article, we therefore analyse this policy strategy through a model of inflation target zone, with a central value and symmetric upper and lower bounds on inflation, within which the central bank may decide not to intervene, provided inflation is expected to fluctuate around the central value. We show that the policy benefits guaranteed by a target zone can be dissipated if market agents are uncertain about its width.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267247
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 10014 (2022)
    Schlagworte: European Central Bank; monetary policy strategy; inflation target zones
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Conceptual note on inflation targeting types and their performance in anchoring inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Cleanthous, Lena T.
    Erschienen: November 2020
    Verlag:  Central Bank of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Central Bank of Cyprus, Eurosystem ; 2020, 1
    Schlagworte: European Central Bank; price stability; monetary policy strategy; inflation targets; point target; range target
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. The ECB's price stability framework
    past experience, and current and future challenges
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The ECB's price stability mandate has been defined by the Treaty. But the Treaty has not spelled out what price stability precisely means. To make the mandate operational, the Governing Council has provided a quantitative definition in 1998 and a... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

     

    The ECB's price stability mandate has been defined by the Treaty. But the Treaty has not spelled out what price stability precisely means. To make the mandate operational, the Governing Council has provided a quantitative definition in 1998 and a clarification in 2003. The landscape has changed notably compared to the time the strategy review was originally designed. At the time, the main concern of the Governing Council was to anchor inflation at low levels in face of the inflationary history of the previous decades. Over the last decade economic conditions have changed dramatically: the persistent low-inflation environment has created the concrete risk of de-anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations. Addressing low inflation is different from addressing high inflation. The ability of the ECB (and central banks globally) to provide the necessary accommodation to maintain price stability has been tested by the lower bound on nominal interest rates in the context of the secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate. Against this backdrop, this report analyses: the ECB's performance as measured against its formulation of price stability; whether it is possible to identify a preferred level of steady-state inflation on the basis of optimality considerations; advantages and disadvantages of formulating the objective in terms of a focal point or a range, or having both; whether the medium-term orientation of the ECB's policy can serve as a mechanism to cater for other considerations; how to strengthen, in the presence of the lower bound, the ECB's leverage on private-sector expectations for inflation and the ECB’s future policy actions so that expectations can act as "automatic stabilisers" and work alongside the central bank.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289948234
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/246200
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 269 (September 2021)
    ECB strategy review
    Schlagworte: European Central Bank; price stability; monetary policy strategy; effective lower bound; euro area
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (128 Seiten), Illustrationen, Diagramme
  10. The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy
    Erschienen: [September 2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper assesses how globalisation has shaped the economic environment in which the ECB operates and discusses whether this warrants adjustments to the monetary policy strategy. The paper first looks at how trade and financial integration have... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

     

    This paper assesses how globalisation has shaped the economic environment in which the ECB operates and discusses whether this warrants adjustments to the monetary policy strategy. The paper first looks at how trade and financial integration have evolved since the last strategy review in 2003. It then examines the effects of these developments on global productivity growth, the natural interest rate (r*), inflation trends and monetary transmission. While trade globalisation initially boosted productivity growth, this effect may be waning as trade integration slows and market contestability promotes a winner-takes-all environment. The impact of globalisation on r* has been ambiguous: downward pressures, fuelled by global demand for safe assets and an increase in the propensity to save against a background of rising inequality, are counteracted by upward pressures, from the boost to global productivity associated with greater trade integration. Headline inflation rates have become more synchronised globally, largely because commodity prices are increasingly determined by global factors. Meanwhile, core inflation rates show a lower degree of commonality. Globalisation has made a rather modest contribution to the synchronised fall in trend inflation across countries and contributed only moderately to the reduction in the responsiveness of inflation to changes in activity. Regarding monetary transmission, globalisation has made the role of the exchange rate more complex by introducing new mechanisms through which it affects financial conditions, real activity and price dynamics. Against the background of this discussion, the paper then examines the implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. In doing so, it asks two questions. How is the ECB’s economic and monetary analysis affected by globalisation? And how does globalisation influence the choice of the ECB's monetary policy objective and instruments? ...

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289944700
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/246194
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 263 (September 2021)
    ECB strategy review
    Schlagworte: Globalisation; monetary policy strategy; r*; inflation; productivity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (93 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Enhancing resilience with natural growth targeting
    Autor*in: Orphanides, Athanasios
    Erschienen: 26 February 2024
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Despite a number of helpful changes, including the adoption of an inflation target, the Fed’s monetary policy strategy proved insufficiently resilient in recent years. While the Fed eased policy appropriately during the pandemic, it fell behind the... mehr

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    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

     

    Despite a number of helpful changes, including the adoption of an inflation target, the Fed’s monetary policy strategy proved insufficiently resilient in recent years. While the Fed eased policy appropriately during the pandemic, it fell behind the curve during the post-pandemic recovery. During 2021, the Fed kept easing policy while the inflation outlook was deteriorating and the economy was growing considerably faster than the economy’s natural growth rate—the sum of the Fed’s 2% inflation goal and the growth rate of potential output. The resilience of the Fed’s monetary policy strategy could be enhanced, and such errors be avoided with guidance from a simple natural growth targeting rule that prescribes that the federal funds rate during each quarter be raised (cut) when projected nominal income growth exceeds (falls short) of the economy’s natural growth rate. An illustration with real-time data and forecasts since the early 1990s shows that Fed policy has not persistently deviated from this simple rule with the notable exception of the period coinciding with the Fed’s post-pandemic policy error.

     
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18862
    Schlagworte: Federal Reserve; monetary policy strategy; discretion; simple rules; real-time data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The eurozone as an inflation target zone
    Autor*in: Della Posta, Pompeo; Tamborini, Roberto
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Università di Trento, Dipartimento di economia e management, [Trento]

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    Schriftenreihe: DEM working papers ; n. 2022, 07
    Schlagworte: European Central Bank; monetary policy strategy; inflation target zones
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Enhancing resilience with natural growth targeting
    Autor*in: Orphanides, Athanasios
    Erschienen: 26 February 2024
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Despite a number of helpful changes, including the adoption of an inflation target, the Fed’s monetary policy strategy proved insufficiently resilient in recent years. While the Fed eased policy appropriately during the pandemic, it fell behind the... mehr

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    Despite a number of helpful changes, including the adoption of an inflation target, the Fed’s monetary policy strategy proved insufficiently resilient in recent years. While the Fed eased policy appropriately during the pandemic, it fell behind the curve during the post-pandemic recovery. During 2021, the Fed kept easing policy while the inflation outlook was deteriorating and the economy was growing considerably faster than the economy’s natural growth rate—the sum of the Fed’s 2% inflation goal and the growth rate of potential output. The resilience of the Fed’s monetary policy strategy could be enhanced, and such errors be avoided with guidance from a simple natural growth targeting rule that prescribes that the federal funds rate during each quarter be raised (cut) when projected nominal income growth exceeds (falls short) of the economy’s natural growth rate. An illustration with real-time data and forecasts since the early 1990s shows that Fed policy has not persistently deviated from this simple rule with the notable exception of the period coinciding with the Fed’s post-pandemic policy error.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18862
    Schlagworte: Federal Reserve; monetary policy strategy; discretion; simple rules; real-time data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Enhancing resilience with natural growth targeting
    Autor*in: Orphanides, Athanasios
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    Despite a number of helpful changes, including the adoption of an inflation target, the Fed's monetary policy strategy proved insufficiently resilient in recent years. While the Fed eased policy appropriately during the pandemic, it fell behind the... mehr

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    Despite a number of helpful changes, including the adoption of an inflation target, the Fed's monetary policy strategy proved insufficiently resilient in recent years. While the Fed eased policy appropriately during the pandemic, it fell behind the curve during the post-pandemic recovery. During 2021, the Fed kept easing policy while the inflation outlook was deteriorating and the economy was growing considerably faster than the economy's natural growth rate-the sum of the Fed's 2% inflation goal and the growth rate of potential output. The resilience of the Fed's monetary policy strategy could be enhanced, and such errors be avoided with guidance from a simple natural growth targeting rule that prescribes that the federal funds rate during each quarter be raised (cut) when projected nominal income growth exceeds (falls short) of the economy's natural growth rate. An illustration with real-time data and forecasts since the early 1990s shows that Fed policy has not persistently deviated from this simple rule with the notable exception of the period coinciding with the Fed's post-pandemic policy error.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/284378
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 200 (2024)
    Schlagworte: Federal Reserve; monetary policy strategy; discretion; simple rules; real-time data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen