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  1. Consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic
    Autor*in: Bui, Dzung; Dräger, Lena; Hayo, Bernd; Giang Hong Nghiem
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover, [Hannover]

    We analyze consumer sentiment with a novel survey of Thai and Vietnamese consumers conducted in May 2020, that is, shortly after the end of the immediate lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In a randomized control trial, we expose subgroups of the... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We analyze consumer sentiment with a novel survey of Thai and Vietnamese consumers conducted in May 2020, that is, shortly after the end of the immediate lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In a randomized control trial, we expose subgroups of the survey respondents to four different information treatments: (1) how their country ranks in a global survey on agreement or disagreement with the government's response to COVID-19, (2) how the country compares in a global survey on the appropriateness of the general public's reaction to the pandemic, (3) the negative unemployment outlook due to the pandemic, and (4) the positive effects of social distancing for the spread of the virus. First, our results show that consumers are more optimistic if they expect higher GDP growth and trust the government in dealing with the crisis, whereas having stronger concerns about their household's financial situation due to COVID-19 is related to less optimistic sentiment. Second, we find that the information treatments only weakly affect consumer sentiment. However, consumer sentiment is strongly affected by treatment (1) and (2) when they go against respondents' previously held views. Finally, we discover large differences between the two countries.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/235228
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionspapiere / Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover ; Nummer: 680 (Dec 2020)
    Schlagworte: Consumer sentiment; COVID-19; randomized control trial (RCT); survey experiment; government trust; macroeconomic expectations; Thailand; Vietnam
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic
    the role of others' beliefs
    Autor*in: Bui, Dzung; Dräger, Lena; Hayo, Bernd; Giang Hong Nghiem
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg

    This paper investigates the direct and indirect effects of others' beliefs on respondents' own beliefs and consumer sentiment. Conducting consumer surveys with randomized control trials (RCTs) in Thailand and Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic, we... mehr

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    This paper investigates the direct and indirect effects of others' beliefs on respondents' own beliefs and consumer sentiment. Conducting consumer surveys with randomized control trials (RCTs) in Thailand and Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic, we implement two information treatments. Both treatments contain cross-country information about others' beliefs about the appropriateness of the government's or the general public's reaction to the pandemic. The first treatment is asymmetric across our sample countries, as it shows opposite appropriateness ratings of the governments' reaction in Vietnam and Thailand, whereas the second treatment is rather symmetric. We find that the information treatments affect consumer sentiment only in Vietnam, where the sign of the effect suggests that the treatments are viewed as positive news. Moreover, consumer sentiment in Vietnam is strongly affected by both treatments when the information goes against respondents' prior beliefs.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/234854
    Schriftenreihe: Joint discussion paper series in economics ; no. 2020, 49
    Schlagworte: Consumer sentiment; COVID-19; randomized control trial (RCT); survey experiment; second-order beliefs; belief updating; government trust; macroeconomic expectations; Thailand; Vietnam
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Consumer sentiment during the Covid-19 pandemic
    the role of others' beliefs
    Autor*in: Bui, Dzung; Dräger, Lena; Hayo, Bernd; Giang Hong Nghiem
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper investigates the direct and indirect effects of others' beliefs on respondents' own beliefs and consumer sentiment. Conducting consumer surveys with randomized control trials (RCTs) in Thailand and Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic, we... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper investigates the direct and indirect effects of others' beliefs on respondents' own beliefs and consumer sentiment. Conducting consumer surveys with randomized control trials (RCTs) in Thailand and Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic, we implement two information treatments. Both treatments contain cross-country information about others' beliefs about the appropriateness of the government's or the general public's reaction to the pandemic. The first treatment is asymmetric across our sample countries, as it shows opposite appropriateness ratings of the governments’ reaction in Vietnam and Thailand, whereas the second treatment is rather symmetric. We find that the information treatments affect consumer sentiment only in Vietnam, where the sign of the effect suggests that the treatments are viewed as positive news. Moreover, consumer sentiment in Vietnam is strongly affected by both treatments when the information goes against respondents’ prior beliefs.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/235380
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9010 (2021)
    Schlagworte: consumer sentiment; Covid-19; randomized control trial (RCT); survey experiment; second-order beliefs; belief updating; government trust; macroeconomic expectations; Thailand; Vietnam
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The hidden heterogeneity of inflation and interest rate expectations
    the role of preferences
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using a new consumer survey dataset, we show that macroeconomic preferences affect expectations and economic decisions through different channels. While household expectations are on average inversely related to preferences, households with the same... mehr

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    Using a new consumer survey dataset, we show that macroeconomic preferences affect expectations and economic decisions through different channels. While household expectations are on average inversely related to preferences, households with the same inflation or interest rate expectations can differently assess whether the level of the corresponding variable is appropriate or too high/too low. This "hidden heterogeneity" in expectations is correlated with sociodemographic characteristics and affects durable spending and saving decisions. We also show that the variation in inflation preferences can be explained with risk preferences. Overall, this adds a new dimension to the definition of anchored expectations.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    hdl: 10419/260767
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9637 (2022)
    Schlagworte: macroeconomic expectations; monetary policy perceptions; inflation and interest rate preferences; risk preferences; survey microdata
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic
    Autor*in: Dzung Bui; Dräger, Lena; Hayo, Bernd; Giang Hong Nghiem
    Erschienen: February 24, 2021
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    This paper uses the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study to investigate the direct and indirect effect of beliefs of others on respondent's own beliefs and on their individual consumer sentiment. In a new online consumer survey with randomized control... mehr

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    This paper uses the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study to investigate the direct and indirect effect of beliefs of others on respondent's own beliefs and on their individual consumer sentiment. In a new online consumer survey with randomized control trials (RCTs) in Thailand and Vietnam, we present randomized subgroups of respondents in both countries with information treatments showing cross-country measures of average beliefs from other surveys. The two countries are interesting cases since Thailand ranks lowest in the cross-country survey on approval rates for the government's reaction to the pandemic, while Vietnam has the highest approval rates. This is our ftrst information treatment, which is on average viewed as good news in Vietnam and as bad news in Thailand. In the second treatment, we show evidence of cross-country average appropriateness ratings of the general public's reaction to the pandemic. This treatment is more symmetric across countries, since both approval rates are relatively similar and lie in the middle of the distribution, rather than in the tails. On average, respondents in our survey view this treatment as neutral. Our results suggest that the information treatments only weakly affect consumer sentiment. We only ftnd signiftcant treatment effects in Vietnam, which suggest that both treatments are viewed as positive news in comparison to the control group. However, consumer sentiment in Vietnam is strongly affected by both treatments when they go against respondents' previously held beliefs.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/242375
    Schriftenreihe: Jahrestagung 2021 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 109
    Schlagworte: Consumer sentiment; COVID-19; randomized control trial (RCT); survey experiment; second-order beliefs; government trust; macroeconomic expectations; Thailand; Vietnam
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households
    Autor*in: Dovern, Jonas
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Humboldt-Universität, Berlin

    Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fuctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty based on... mehr

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    Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fuctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty based on data from a German online survey of consumer expectations. I document that the survey design works well. Elicited expectation uncertainty is related to data volatility and conventional measures of uncertainty as expected. Its dependency on socioeconomic factors is in line with previous evidence based on quantitative uncertainty measures. The new measure ofers a very efcient way of eliciting expectation uncertainty and can be used to obtain uncertainty measures on many diferent expectations at low cost.

     
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    hdl: 10419/268639
    Schriftenreihe: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 ; no 38 (2023, January)
    Schlagworte: macroeconomic expectations; expectation uncertainty; density expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Macroeconomic expectations and state-dependent factor returns
    Autor*in: Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We examine the asymmetric impact of shocks to macroeconomic expectations and their underlying dispersion on equity risk premia across different market regimes. First, we rely on a two-state logit mixture vector autoregressive model and use Consensus... mehr

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    We examine the asymmetric impact of shocks to macroeconomic expectations and their underlying dispersion on equity risk premia across different market regimes. First, we rely on a two-state logit mixture vector autoregressive model and use Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth, inflation, and short-term interest rates to approximate macroeconomic expectations and the underlying disagreement in the United States for the period 1989M10-2022M09. We demonstrate that unexpected changes of survey forecasts and their dispersion significantly affect cyclical factor returns in a dynamic setting and that the state of the economy matters for the magnitude, persistence, and occasionally also for the sign of the effect. Second, by extending the dynamic asset pricing model of Adrian et al. (2015), we show that GDP forecasts and their dispersion are priced in the cross section and drive the size and value premium, whereas inflation expectations serve as robust predictors for the price of risk. We also document that the survey expectations-augmented specification reduces pricing and premium errors when compared to a common benchmark of return predictors.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282408
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10720 (2023)
    Schlagworte: consensus forecasts; dynamic asset pricing model; factor risk premia; macroeconomic expectations; mixture VAR; state-dependency
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (60 Seiten), Illustrationen