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  1. On differentiated carbon prices and discount rates
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Dennig, Francis; Emmerling, Johannes
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The consensus view amongst economists is that carbon prices, in order to be effcient, must be the same across the globe. But when there are inefficiencies in the allocation of capital so that consumers in different countries face different discount... mehr

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    The consensus view amongst economists is that carbon prices, in order to be effcient, must be the same across the globe. But when there are inefficiencies in the allocation of capital so that consumers in different countries face different discount rates, we show that efficient carbon prices must be different across countries. This is a consequence of Hotelling's familiar argument on the price of a non-renewable resource: it must grow at the rate of the next best use of marginal funds, which is equal to the country's discount rate. If different countries discount at different rates, their carbon prices ought to grow at different rates as well. If they grow at different rates, they can't be the same all of the time, as first-best carbon prices are. The computational climate policy literature has so far avoided this conclusion by altering time preferences in a country specific way through time-varying Negishi weights. We show that the use of such weights causes inefficient policy prescriptions and, furthermore, has the particularly undesirable consequence of incorrectly discounting future consumption more in countries with high growth rates. The existence of inefficiencies in the savings process - causing differences in discount rates - is well-known and should be acknowledged head on in climate policy analysis. Doing so results in global mitigation policy with carbon price paths for different countries growing (efficiently) at different rates.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245424
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9243 (2021)
    Schlagworte: carbon price; Hotelling rule; efficient climate policy; Negishi weights; integrated assessment models; discounting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten)
  2. Climate change and economics
    update
    Autor*in: Van Kooten, Gerrit C.
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  REPA Resource Economics & Policy Analysis Research Group, Department of Economics, University of Victoria, Victoria

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Resource Economics & Policy Analysis Research Group, Department of Economics, University of Victoria ; 2021, 03
    Schlagworte: integrated assessment models; costs of mitigating climate change; international climate policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Self-enforcing climate coalitions for farsighted countries: integrated analysis of heterogeneous countries
    Autor*in: Vosooghi, Sareh; Arvaniti, Maria; Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford

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    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 971 (May 2022)
    Schlagworte: climate economics; international environmental agreements; coalition forma-tion; heterogeneous countries; integrated assessment models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten)
  4. Self-enforcing climate coalitions for farsighted countries
    integrated analysis of heterogeneous countries
    Autor*in: Vosooghi, Sareh; Arvaniti, Maria; Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper studies the formation of international climate coalitions by heterogeneous countries. Countries rationally predict the consequences of their membership decisions in climate negotiations. We offer an approach to characterise the equilibrium... mehr

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    This paper studies the formation of international climate coalitions by heterogeneous countries. Countries rationally predict the consequences of their membership decisions in climate negotiations. We offer an approach to characterise the equilibrium number of coalitions and their number of signatories independent of their heterogeneity, and we suggest a tractable algorithm to fully characterise the equilibrium. In a dynamic game analysis of a general equilibrium model of the economy integrated with climate dynamics, a grand climate coalition or multiple climate coalitions may form in equilibrium, but if the policymakers are patient, the number of signatories in all climate treaties is a Tribonacci number. Our results are robust to the possibility of renegotiation and investment in green technologies besides fossil fuels.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263698
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9768 (2022)
    Schlagworte: climate economics; international environmental agreements; coalition formation; heterogeneous countries; integrated assessment models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten)
  5. School value-added and long-term student outcomes
    Autor*in: Kirkebøen, Lars J.
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Several recent studies find that interventions in schools can have important lasting consequences for students, and that schools differ in their contribution to students’ learning. However, there is less research investigating how these differences... mehr

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    Several recent studies find that interventions in schools can have important lasting consequences for students, and that schools differ in their contribution to students’ learning. However, there is less research investigating how these differences between schools influence longer-term outcomes, especially outside the US. In this paper I study the value-added (VA) of Norwegian schools, where between-school differences are smaller than in the US. I find that VA indicators are able to predict in-school performance without bias. Furthermore, VA is strongly related to long-term outcomes, and differences between schools in VA correspond to meaningful differences in long-term outcomes. For example, a one standard deviation higher VA corresponds to 1.9 percent higher earnings at around age 32. Three quasi-experiments using variation from student mobility and changes in neighborhoods’ assignment to schools indicate that the differences captured by the VA indicators do indeed reflect differences in school quality, rather than unobserved student characteristics. Analyses of teacher grades and exam scores suggest that the former are heavily influenced by relative grading, and that the effect of exam score VA on long-term outcomes reflects the effects of competencies and skills acquired in school. In addition to shedding light on the differences in and mechanisms of school quality, the findings help connect learning outcomes with later labor market outcomes, e.g. for cost-benefit analysis of interventions in schools.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263699
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9769 (2022)
    Schlagworte: climate economics; international environmental agreements; coalition formation; heterogeneous countries; integrated assessment models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Climate change economics over time and space
    Autor*in: Desmet, Klaus; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
    Erschienen: 18 March 2024
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18924
    Schlagworte: adaptation; climate policy; global warming; integrated assessment models; migration; trade
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The good, the bad and the hot house world
    conceptual underpinnings of the NGFs scenarios and suggestions for improvement
    Autor*in: Monasterolo, Irene; Nieto, María J.; Schets, Edo
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos ocasionales / Banco de España ; no. 2302
    Schlagworte: NGFS scenarios; climate finance; climate transition risks; climate physical risks; integrated assessment models; carbon pricing; climate financial risk assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Climate damages in convergence-consistent growth projections
    Autor*in: Harding, Tony; Moreno Cruz, Juan; Quaas, Martin F.; Rickels, Wilfried; Smulders, Sjak
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    Projections of climate change damages based on climate-econometric estimates suggest that, without mitigation, global warming could reduce average global incomes by over 20% towards the end of the century (Burke et al., 2015). This figure... mehr

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    Projections of climate change damages based on climate-econometric estimates suggest that, without mitigation, global warming could reduce average global incomes by over 20% towards the end of the century (Burke et al., 2015). This figure significantly surpasses climate damages in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). For example, global climate damages obtained with the seminal DICE model are just a 7% reduction in output (Nordhaus, 2018). Here, we show that the discrepancy between the projections can be resolved by accounting for growth convergence in a climate-econometric approach that is consistent with the macroeconomic models underlying most IAMs. By re-estimating the global non-linear relationship between temperature and country-level economic growth, our convergence-consistent projections reveal that under an unmitigated warming scenario, global climate damages amount to 6%.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279240
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10490 (2023)
    Schlagworte: climate change; economics growth; convergence; integrated assessment models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Optimal climate policy under exogenous and endogenous technical change
    making sense of the different approaches
    Autor*in: Coppens, Leo; Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank
    Erschienen: April 2024
    Verlag:  London School of Economics and Political Science, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 408
    Schlagworte: climate change; cost-benefit analysis; induced innovation; integrated assessment models; technical change
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Climate change economics over time and space
    Autor*in: Desmet, Klaus; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
    Erschienen: 18 March 2024
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18924
    Schlagworte: adaptation; climate policy; global warming; integrated assessment models; migration; trade
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Incomplete financial markets, the social cost of carbon and constrained efficient carbon pricing
    Autor*in: Kubler, Felix
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Swiss Finance Institute, Geneva

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    Schriftenreihe: Swiss Finance Institute research paper series ; no 24, 27
    Schlagworte: climate change; financial frictions; heterogeneous agents; carbon taxes; environmental policy; integrated assessment models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten)
  12. Optimal climate policy under exogenous and endogenous technical change
    making sense of the different approaches
    Autor*in: Coppens, Léo; Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank
    Erschienen: April 2024
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide key inputs to decision-makers on economically efficient climate policies, and technical change is one of the key assumptions in any IAM that estimates mitigation costs. We conduct a systematic survey of how... mehr

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    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide key inputs to decision-makers on economically efficient climate policies, and technical change is one of the key assumptions in any IAM that estimates mitigation costs. We conduct a systematic survey of how technical change is currently represented in the main IAMs and find that a diversity of approaches continues to exist. This makes it important to conduct an up-to-date assessment of what difference technical change makes to IAM results. Here we attempt such an assessment, using an analytical IAM with a reduced-form representation of technical change, which we can calibrate on the relationship between abatement costs and the timing of abatement in 109 IAM scenarios from two major databases. We first show in theory how a range of technical-change mechanisms can be adequately captured in a reduced-form model, in which the key difference is whether technical change is a function of time, i.e., exogenous, or cumulative past emissions abatement, i.e., endogenous. We then derive analytical and quantitative results on the effect of technical change on optimal climate policy, for both cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness policy problems. Under cost-benefit analysis, technical change has a quantitatively large, negative effect on long-run emissions and temperatures. The effect on carbon prices differs markedly depending on whether technical change is exogenous or endogenous, and whether clean technology deployment is incentivised by carbon prices or a dedicated deployment subsidy. Under cost-effectiveness analysis, technical change has a small effect on transient emissions and temperatures, but it has a large, negative effect on carbon prices almost irrespective of the policy instruments available. We make several practical recommendations for how IAMs can better incorporate TC, particularly when facing computational constraints.

     
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    hdl: 10419/296148
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 11059 (2024)
    Schlagworte: climate change; cost-benefit analysis; induced innovation; integrated assessment models; technical change
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen