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  1. The growth-at-risk perspective on the system-wide impact of Basel III finalisation in the euro area
    Autor*in: Budnik, Katarzyna; Dimitrov, Ivan; Giglio, Carla; Groß, Johannes; Lampe, Max; Sarychev, Andrei; Tarbé, Matthieu; Vagliano, Gianluca; Volk, Matjaz
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper assesses the macroeconomic implications of the Basel III finalisation for the euro area, employing a large-scale semi-structural model encompassing over 90 banks and 19-euro area economies. The new regulatory framework will influence... mehr

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    This paper assesses the macroeconomic implications of the Basel III finalisation for the euro area, employing a large-scale semi-structural model encompassing over 90 banks and 19-euro area economies. The new regulatory framework will influence banks’ reactions to economic conditions and, as a result, affect the ability of the banking system to amplify or dampen economic shocks. The assessment covers the entire distribution of conditional economic predictions to measure the cost and benefit of the reforms. Looking at the means of conditional forecasts of output growth provides an indication of the costs of the reform, namely a transitory reduction in euro area gross domestic product (GDP) and in lending to the non-financial private sector. Looking at the lower percentile of output growth forecasts, i.e. growth at risk, captures the long-term benefits of the Basel III finalisation package in terms of improved resilience and the ability of the banking system to supply lending to the real economy under adverse conditions. These permanent growth-at-risk benefits ultimately outweigh the short-term costs of the reform.

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789289945639
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/246189
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 258 (July 2021)
    Schlagworte: Basel III finalisation; impact assessment; regulatory policy; bankingsector; real-financial feedback mechanism
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. An integrated data framework for policy guidance in times of dynamic economic shocks
    Autor*in: Dörr, Julian; Kinne, Jan; Lenz, David; Licht, Georg; Winker, Peter
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany

    Usually, offcial and survey-based statistics guide policy makers in their choice of response instruments to economic crises. However, in an early phase, after a sudden and unforeseen shock has caused incalculable and fast-changing dynamics, data from... mehr

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    Usually, offcial and survey-based statistics guide policy makers in their choice of response instruments to economic crises. However, in an early phase, after a sudden and unforeseen shock has caused incalculable and fast-changing dynamics, data from traditional statistics are only available with non-negligible time delays. This leaves policy makers uncertain about how to most effectively manage their economic countermeasures to support businesses, especially when they need to respond quickly, as in the COVID-19 pandemic. Given this information deficit, we propose a framework that guides policy makers throughout all stages of an unforeseen economic shock by providing timely and reliable data as a basis to make informed decisions. We do so by combining early stage ‘ad hoc’ web analyses, ‘follow-up’ business surveys, and ‘retrospective’ analyses of firm outcomes. A particular focus of our framework is on assessing the early effects of the pandemic, using highly dynamic and largescale data from corporate websites. Most notably, we show that textual references to the coronavirus pandemic published on a large sample of company websites and state-of-the-art text analysis methods allow to capture the heterogeneity of the crisis' effects at a very early stage and entail a leading indication on later movements in firm credit ratings.

     
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    hdl: 10419/237736
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 21, 062 (08/2021)
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; impact assessment; corporate sector; corporate websites; web mining; NLP
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The informal economy and gender inequalities in North Africa
    Autor*in: Adair, Philippe
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Érudite laboratoire d'économie Paris-Est, [Marne-la-Vallée]

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    Schriftenreihe: Series of ERUDITE working papers ; no 2021, 07
    Schlagworte: businesses; employment; impact assessment; informal economy; policies; segmentation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 14 Seiten)
  4. Policies in support of lending following the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
    Autor*in: Budnik, Katarzyna; Dimitrov, Ivan; Groß, Johannes; Jancoková, Martina; Lampe, Max; Sorvillo, Bianca; Stular, Anze; Volk, Matjaz
    Erschienen: [May 2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper looks at the impact of mitigation policies implemented by supervisory and macroprudential authorities as well as national governments in the euro area during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic to support lending to the real economy. The... mehr

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    This paper looks at the impact of mitigation policies implemented by supervisory and macroprudential authorities as well as national governments in the euro area during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic to support lending to the real economy. The impact assessment concerns joint, and individual, effect of supervisory measures introduced by the ECB Banking Supervision, a reduction in macroprudential buffers put forward by national macroprudential authorities, and public moratoria and guarantee schemes. The analysis has been conducted in the first half of 2020, in a situation of high uncertainty about how the crisis will develop in the future. Against this backdrop, it proposes a method of addressing such uncertainty by assessing the impact of policies across a full range of scenarios. We find that the supervisory, macroprudential and government policies should have helped to maintain higher lending to the non-financial private sector (around 5% higher than lending in the absence of policy measures) and, in particular, to non-financial corporations (12% higher than lending in the absence of policy measures), preventing further amplification of the recession via the banking sector. The national and supervisory and macroprudential actions have reinforced each other, and have been jointly able to affect a broader share of the banking sector.

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9789289945622
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/234498
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 257 (May 2021)
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; impact assessment; banking sector; real-financial feedbackmechanism
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Estimating conditional treatment effects of EIB lending to SMEs in Europe
    Autor*in: Barbera, Alessandro; Gereben, Aron; Wolski, Marcin
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 1006
    Schlagworte: SMEs; EIB; intermediated loans; impact assessment; conditional treatment effects; difference-in-differences
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Permanence of avoided deforestation in a Transamazon REDD+ initiative
    Autor*in: Carrilho, Cauê D.; Demarchi, Gabriela; Duchelle, Amy E.; Wunder, Sven; Morsello, Carla
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  CEE-M, Center for Environmental Economics, Montpellier

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    Schriftenreihe: CEE-M working paper ; 2022, 02
    Schlagworte: conservation incentives; emission reductions; additionality; climate change mitigation; impact assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Zróżnicowanie wpływu specjalnych stref ekonomicznych na rynek pracy w Polsce
    Autor*in: Cicha-Nazarczuk, Marlena
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  Instytut Badań Gospodarczych, Olsztyn

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    Sprache: Polnisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9788365605351
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10.24136/eep.mon.2021.10
    Schlagworte: Sonderwirtschaftszone; Beschäftigungseffekt; Polen; employment; special economic zones; heterogeneity; impact assessment; state intervention; labor market
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 252 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The old-age pension household replacement rate in Belgium
    Autor*in: Brown, Alessio J. G.; Fraikin, Anne-Lore
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen

    The objective of the paper is to examine the retirement behaviour of Belgian workers in one-earner households who are automatically granted a more generous old-age pension benefits replacement rate, called the household replacement rate. Following a... mehr

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    The objective of the paper is to examine the retirement behaviour of Belgian workers in one-earner households who are automatically granted a more generous old-age pension benefits replacement rate, called the household replacement rate. Following a recommendation of the Belgian Pension Reform Committee, this policy is to be suppressed for new pensioners, except for those receiving the minimum pension. We provide an ex-ante impact evaluation of such reform on both pension sustainability and adequacy measures. Specifically, we test whether the household replacement rate entails a work (dis)incentive mechanism promoting (harming) pension sustainability and furthermore, we analyse the role of the household replacement rate in old-age poverty and inequality measures. To do so, we use the survey dataset SHARE and a discrete time logistic duration model to study the link between retirement and financial retirement incentives created by the social security system. We find that the household replacement rate generates slightly higher retirement incentives through an income effect and we find that the household replacement rate plays an important role in decreasing the elderly poverty rate. Since households with asymmetrical working arrangements are often at the lowest part of the equivalized income distribution, the substantial effect of the household replacement rate on poverty measures is a motive to use such mechanism as a poverty alleviation tool. Nevertheless, we advocate that income redistribution measures should not be tied to a specific household composition and policies such as pensionable earning minima, minimum pension benefits and the inclusion of replacement income periods in the pension benefits calculation effectively serve the income redistribution goal without favouring a certain type of household over another. Overall, despite the positive poverty and distributional aspects of this policy, our analysis supports the reform proposal of removing the household replacement rate.

     
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    hdl: 10419/249053
    Schriftenreihe: GLO discussion paper ; no. 1026
    Schlagworte: retirement; pension policy; Belgium; impact assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustration
  9. Digital finance and inclusion in the time of COVID-19
    lessons, experiences and proposals
    Autor*in: Benni, Niclas
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome

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    ISBN: 9789251336236
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    Schlagworte: COVID-19; impact assessment; digital technology; finance; electronic commerce; remittances; social safety nets
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 94 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The old-age pension household replacement rate in Belgium
    Autor*in: Brown, Alessio J. G.; Fraikin, Anne-Lore
    Erschienen: 19 January 2022
    Verlag:  Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), Maastricht, The Netherlands

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / United Nations University, UNU-MERIT ; #2022, 004
    Schlagworte: retirement; pension policy; Belgium; impact assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Impactos da expansão do metrô de Fortaleza sobre o acesso a oportunidades de emprego, saúde e educação
    Autor*in: Braga, Carlos Kauê Vieira; Tomasiello, Diego Bogado; Herszenhut, Daniel; Oliveira, João Lucas Albuquerque; Pereira, Rafael Henrique Moraes
    Erschienen: maio de 2022
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília

    This study presents the results of an ex-ante assessment of the accessibility and equity impacts of a subway expansion in Fortaleza (Brazil). We analyze how the number of jobs, health facilities, and schools accessible by public transportation is... mehr

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    This study presents the results of an ex-ante assessment of the accessibility and equity impacts of a subway expansion in Fortaleza (Brazil). We analyze how the number of jobs, health facilities, and schools accessible by public transportation is expected to change with the implementation of a new subway line (Linha Leste) and the other changes planned in the Sustainable Accessibility Plan of Fortaleza (Pasfor). Our results indicate that investments in the rail system alone could increase the number of jobs, schools, and health services accessible by public transport by an average of 3.1% to 5.6%. However, the planned reduction of services in the bus network is expected to undermine the potential positive impact that would be obtained with the subway investments alone. With these service cuts, it is estimated that the number of opportunities accessible by public transport could drop by -7.4% to -8.1% on average compared to the 2019 baseline. As a rule, these accessibility reductions will be greater in middle- and low-income neighborhoods, indicating that the planned interventions on Fortaleza's public transportation network will have a regressive impact, increasing inequality of access to opportunities. The study brings important lessons about how transportation infrastructure expansion projects need to be planned in a coordinated manner with the day-to-day operation of public transportation systems to leverage the accessibility benefits of urban transportation policies.

     
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    Sprache: Portugiesisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/265287
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2767
    Schlagworte: public transport; accessibility; Fortaleza; impact assessment; transport inequalities; transport policy; equity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The economic impact of the NPL coverage expectations in the euro area
    Autor*in: Budnik, Katarzyna; Dimitrov, Ivan; Groß, Johannes; Kusmierczyk, Piotr; Lampe, Max; Vagliano, Gianluca; Volk, Matjaz
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper looks at the macroeconomic impact of the two policies proposed by ECB Banking Supervision to tackle the high share of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the balance sheets of euro area banks. The first is the coverage expectations for new NPLs... mehr

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    This paper looks at the macroeconomic impact of the two policies proposed by ECB Banking Supervision to tackle the high share of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the balance sheets of euro area banks. The first is the coverage expectations for new NPLs set out in the Addendum to the ECB's NPL Guidance, which aim to prevent the build-up of new NPLs, and the second is the coverage expectations for legacy NPLs, which target the reduction of already existing stocks of NPLs. The impact assessment of the package is analysed via a semi-structural model, the Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST). The coverage expectations for NPLs are found to be effective in reducing banks' NPLs. The phase-in of the policies can temporarily reduce bank profitability owing to increased loan loss provisioning targets. However, over a longer time horizon, lower NPL ratios reduce uncertainty and enable banks to access cheaper funding in the markets, ultimately benefiting lending and output growth. Furthermore, the coverage expectations can also moderately but persistently reduce procyclicality in the banking system.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289948517
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/268042
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 297 (July 2022)
    Schlagworte: Non-performing loans; impact assessment; loan loss provisions,regulatory policy; banking sector; real-financial feedback mechanism; bankingsupervision
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Hunger hotspots
    FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity : June to September 2022 Outlook
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy

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    Max-Planck-Institut für ausländisches öffentliches Recht und Völkerrecht, Bibliothek
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    FAO (VerfasserIn)
    Schlagworte: hunger; food insecurity; impact assessment; early warning systems; food assistance; support measures
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Implications of the war in Ukraine for agrifood trade and food security in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean
    Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia
    Autor*in: Rauschendorfer, Jakob; Krivonos, Ekaterina
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome

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    ISBN: 9789251366370
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    Schriftenreihe: Directions in investment / FAO Investment Centre ; number 8
    Schlagworte: war; impact assessment; agrifood sector; food prices; inflation; agricultural development; trade policies; food security; Egypt; Jordan; Lebanon; Morocco; Tunisia
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 84 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. An analysis of farm support measures in the Republic of Moldova
    Autor*in: Möllers, Judith; Herzfeld, Thomas; Batereanu, Lucia; Arapi-Gjini, Arjola
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Halle (Saale), Germany

    In the Republic of Moldova, agricultural policies aim to increase the compettveness of its farming sector, ensure the sustainable management of its natural resources and improve the living standards in rural areas. The state is an important player,... mehr

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    Leibniz-Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Transformationsökonomien, Bibliothek
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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    In the Republic of Moldova, agricultural policies aim to increase the compettveness of its farming sector, ensure the sustainable management of its natural resources and improve the living standards in rural areas. The state is an important player, allocatng fnancial resources for supportng agriculture and carrying out investment projects in this feld. A post-investment subsidy program incentvises agricultural producers to modernise their farms and producton. Farmers who have made investments in developing producton and post-harvest infrastructure could beneft from subsidies for these investments and fnancial resources allocated by the Agency for Interventon and Payments in Agriculture. However, it is not clear how benefcial these subsidies are for agricultural producers and whether the goals formulated by policies are met. A critcal challenge of policy assessment is the lack of regular surveys gathering farm-level data in Moldova. Another challenge is that the impact of some investments can only be quantfed with a delay of several years. This report results from an impact assessment study analysing the efectveness of existng policy measures. A survey of 800 farms was carried out to realise this assessment, which provided informaton about the actvity and investments made over several years. The team of researchers analysed the collected data to evaluate the policy measures covered by the survey. The study highlights essental facilitators and barriers to the farms' agricultural investment and business actvity. The impact assessment underlined that the investment subsidies had measurable positve efects on labour, farm producton and economic success. At the same tme, it indicated directons for improving and rebalancing policy instruments to increase the compettveness and sustainability of the agricultural sector of the Republic of Moldova.

     
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    ISBN: 9783959921435
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    hdl: 10419/264444
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / IAMO, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies ; # 199 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Moldova; farm subsidies; agricultural policies; impact assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (v, 70 Seiten, 2,55 MB), Diagramme
  16. Decarbonising cities: assessing governance approaches for transformative change
    Autor*in: Roll, Michael; Haldenwang, Christian von; Grohmann, Christina; Gronen, Maria Elisabeth; Laible, Anne; Orth, Johanna; Wengel, Florian; Zumegen, Lisa
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), Bonn

    While cities are important emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG), they are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change; at the same time they constitute innovation hubs for climate action. For cities to fulfil their potential for global climate... mehr

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    While cities are important emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG), they are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change; at the same time they constitute innovation hubs for climate action. For cities to fulfil their potential for global climate action, a thorough understanding of the governance of transformative change towards the decarbonisation of cities is necessary. This study asks: Which governance approaches facilitate successful transformative change towards zero carbon in cities? It specifically addresses the three key aspects stakeholder involvement, financing, and impact assessment, and looks at how they contribute to transformative change - particularly to the dimensions CO2 reduction, the dynamics of transformation, and acceptance by citizens. The empirical analysis is based on a mixed methods approach. An international survey involving city government officials of cities that are proactive in the fight against climate change was conducted in order to obtain an overview of socio-ecological transformation paths. In addition to this macro-level approach, in-depth case studies of three cities that are widely regarded as proactive on climate action in their respective world regions - Bonn, Quito and Cape Town - provide complementary insights. The survey data show a generally positive tendency in the way local governments approach GHG emission reduction activities. Most of the participating cities engage in the mainstreaming of policies to address climate change in local decision-making and have established climate action plans and emission reduction targets; however, on actual climate action and the reduction of emissions, the picture is more mixed. While stakeholder involvement is generally considered a key success factor in the survey responses and in the three case-study cities, stakeholders were seldom involved in a truly inclusive and cooperative way. While Bonn has gradually expanded citizen engagement, in Quito relations between the local government and stakeholder groups have often been short-term and project-bound, while a close connection between city government and academic institutions has been established in Cape Town. In terms of finance, cities mostly rely on traditional financing sources such as intergovernmental transfers, local taxes and fees, as well as international grants to cities of the Global South. Additional funding through the generation of local revenues or market-based finance mechanisms is less widespread. Both Quito and Cape Town depend heavily on external funding from international organisations and donors, along with central government transfers, which are less relevant in Bonn. While building the metro is absorbing finances for additional climate action in Quito, perverse incentives exist in South Africa where cities receive revenues from re-selling fossil fuel-based energy to consumers. Bonn has recently started to experiment with a sustainability budget to align budgeting with sustainability and climate goals. As far as impact assessment is concerned, most cities in the survey including the three case-study cities collect relevant data. However, systematic impact assessment or the incorporation of lessons learned from monitoring and evaluation into policy occur less frequently. Despite its limitations, this study contributes to the theoretical and empirical discussions in the field of transformative urban governance by suggesting a conceptual framework for dimensions of success for transformative change, by combining survey and case study-based data, and by looking at finances and impact assessment which are two important governance dimensions that are not frequently investigated.

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266406
    Schriftenreihe: IDOS studies ; 107
    Schlagworte: Stadt; Großstadt; Stadtentwicklung; Umweltschutz; Umweltpolitik; Klimaschutz; Cities; urban; governance; transformation; sustainability; decarbonisation; climate; greenhouse gas; participation; evidence; transition; financing; impact assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 111 Seiten), Illustrationen, Diagramme
  17. Thünen-Baseline
    2022/2032 / Marlen Haß, Claus Deblitz, Florian Freund, Peter Kreins, Verena Laquai, Frank Offermann, Janine Pelikan, Viktoriya Sturm, Johannes Wegmann, Thomas de Witte; Friedrich Wüstemann, Maximilian Zinnbauer
    Autor*in: Haß, Marlen; Deblitz, Claus; Freund, Florian; Kreins, Peter; Laquai, Verena; Offermann, Frank; Pelikan, Janine; Sturm, Viktoriya; Wegmann, Johannes; Witte, Thomas de; Wüstemann, Friedrich; Zinnbauer, Maximilian
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig

    Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen-Baseline 2022-2032 sowie die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen dar. Die Thünen-Baseline beschreibt die erwarteten Entwicklungen auf den Agrarmärkten bei einer Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik... mehr

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    Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen-Baseline 2022-2032 sowie die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen dar. Die Thünen-Baseline beschreibt die erwarteten Entwicklungen auf den Agrarmärkten bei einer Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik und Umsetzung bereits beschlossener Politikänderungen unter bestimmten Annahmen zur Entwicklung exogener Einflussfaktoren. Dabei beruhen die Berechnungen auf Daten und Informationen, die bis zum Frühjahr 2022 vorlagen. Die Auswirkungen des Russland-Ukraine Krieges werden nicht berücksichtigt. Dargestellt werden Projektionsergebnisse für Agrarhandel, Preise, Nachfrage, Produktion, Einkommen und Umweltwirkungen. Die Darstellung der Ergebnisse konzentriert sich hauptsächlich auf die Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors bis zum Jahr 2032 im Vergleich zur Situation im Basisjahrzeitraum 2018-2020. Im pflanzlichen Sektor gewinnt der Anbau von Ölsaaten bis zum Jahr 2032 an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und wird deutlich ausgedehnt, was vor allem auf stärkere Preis- und auch Ertragssteigerungen im Vergleich zu Getreide zurückzuführen ist. Mit Blick auf die Entwicklung im Fleischsektor lassen höhere Umwelt- und Tierwohlstandards sowie sich ändernde Ernährungsgewohnheiten erwarten, dass sich der in den letzten Jahren beobachtete Rückgang der Erzeugung weiter fortsetzt, insbesondere in der Schweinefleischerzeugung, wohingegen die Geflügelfleischerzeugung bis zum Jahr 2032 noch leicht wächst. Eine positive Preisentwicklung am Milchmarkt in Verbindung mit einer weiteren Steigerung der Milchleistung führt außerdem zu einem moderaten Anstieg der Milchanlieferungen über die Projektionsperiode. Das durchschnittliche reale Einkommen landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe entwickelt sich über die Projektionsperiode rückläufig und liegt im Jahr 2032 deutlich unter dem mittleren Niveau der letzten zehn Jahre. This report presents selected results of the Thünen-Baseline 2022-2032 as well as the assumptions underlying the projections. The Thünen-Baseline describes the expected developments of agricultural markets under given macro-economic conditions assuming no change in the current policy framework. Projections are based on the data and information available in spring 2022. The effects of the Russia-Ukraine war are not taken into account. The report includes projection results on agricultural trade, prices, demand, production, income and environmental effects. The presentation of the results focuses mainly on the developments of the German agricultural sector up to the year 2032 compared to the average of the base period 2018-2020. In the crop sector, results show that oilseed cultivation is likely to be expanded by 2032. This is because the oilseed sector becomes more competitive relative to grains driven by a stronger increase in yields as well as prices. In the meat sector, the decline in production observed in recent years due to higher environmental and animal welfare standards as well as changing dietary habits is expected to continue, especially for pork, while poultry production will continue to grow slightly until 2032. Moreover, favorable price developments on the milk market combined with a further increase in milk yield are likely to result in a moderate increase in milk deliveries over the projection period. The average real income of agricultural farms is expected to decline. In 2032 the real income of agricultural farms is likely to be significantly below the average level observed over the last ten years.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Deutsch
    Medientyp: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9783865762481
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/268648
    Übergeordneter Titel: Thünen-Baseline - Alle Bände anzeigen
    Schriftenreihe: Thünen Report ; 100
    Schlagworte: Agrarpolitik; Politikfolgenabschätzung; Modell; Modellverbund; agricultural policy; impact assessment; model; model network
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (126 Seiten)
  18. Economic consequences of trade and investment liberalisation
    the case of Viet Nam
    Autor*in: Thanh Tri Vo; Nguyen, Duong Anh; Thien Thi Nhan Do
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  [ERIA Annex Office], [Jakarta]

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    Fachinformationsverbund Internationale Beziehungen und Länderkunde
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    German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Bibliothek
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: ERIA discussion paper series ; ERIA-DP-2019-17 = no. 303
    Schlagworte: Sozioökonomischer Wandel; Wirtschaftsindikator; Sozialer Indikator; Wirtschaftsreform; Wirtschaftliche Integration; Liberalisierung; Außenhandel; Freihandelsabkommen; Direktinvestition; Auswirkung; Politik; Einflussgröße; Interesse; Beschäftigung; Arbeit; Soziales Feld; Umwelt; Viet Nam; free trade agreement; trade liberalisation; WTO; impact assessment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten), Illustrationen, Tabellen, Diagramme
  19. The economic and social impact of the University of Southampton
    final report for the University of Southampton
    Autor*in: Williams, Rhys; Pritchard, Andrew; Forrester, James; Conlon, Gavan
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  London Economics, London, United Kingdom

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    Format: Online
    Schlagworte: impact assessment; quantitative analysis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 107 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Technology intensification and farmers' welfare
    a case study from Karnataka, a semi-arid state of India
    Autor*in: Kapoor, Shreya; Pal, Barun Deb; Singhal, Aditi; Anantha K. H.
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA

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    Schriftenreihe: IFPRI discussion paper ; 01982 (December 2020)
    Schlagworte: crop intensification; technology intensification; technology adoption; farmers' welfare; impact assessment; India
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Drivers and triggers for transformation
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome

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    ISBN: 9789251366394
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    Schriftenreihe: The future of food and agriculture ; no. 3
    Schlagworte: agrifood systems; population dynamics; economic growth; conflicts; impact assessment; poverty; food prices; innovation; investment; food consumption; consumer behaviour; environmental degradation; epidemics; climate change adaptation; sustainable agriculture; resilience; food security
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 444 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Quantitative analysis to inform priorities for international agricultural research
    Autor*in: Fuglie, Keith O.; Wiebe, Keith D.; Prager, Steve D.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Bonilla-Cedrez, Camila; Willenbockel, Dirk
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA

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    Schriftenreihe: IFPRI discussion paper ; 02133 (August 2022)
    Schlagworte: agricultural productivity; CGIAR; impact assessment; parity model; IMPACT model; farming systems; natural resource management; agricultural pests and diseases
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 81 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Quantifying trade-offs for the spatial allocation of onshore wind generation capacity
    a case study for Germany
    Autor*in: Tafarte, Philip; Lehmann, Paul
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH - UFZ, Leipzig

    The deployment of onshore wind power is an important means to mitigate climate change. However, wind turbines also have negative impacts at the local scale, like disamenities to residents living nearby, changes in landscape quality, or conflicts with... mehr

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    The deployment of onshore wind power is an important means to mitigate climate change. However, wind turbines also have negative impacts at the local scale, like disamenities to residents living nearby, changes in landscape quality, or conflicts with nature conservation. Our paper analyses how these impacts affect the optimal siting of wind turbines, as compared to a spatial allocation focused solely on minimizing generation costs. To quantify the spatial trade-offs between these criteria, we propose a novel approach using Pareto frontiers and a Gini-like potential trade-off indicator. Our analysis builds on a spatial optimization model using geographical information system data for Germany. We show that spatial trade-offs between the criteria under consideration are significant. The size of the trade-off varies substantially with the criteria under consideration, depending on the spatial heterogeneity of each criterion as well as on the spatial correlation between the criteria. Spatial trade-offs are particularly pronounced between nature conservation (measured by impacts on wind powersensitive birds) and other criteria.

     
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    hdl: 10419/234329
    Schriftenreihe: UFZ discussion papers ; 2021, 2
    Schlagworte: impact assessment; Germany; renewable energy; spatial optimization; wind power
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (32 Seiten, 1,88 MB), Illustrationen, Diagramme
  24. Access to markets for smallholder farmers in Alto Molócue and Molumbo, Mozambique
    mid-term impact evaluation of INOVAGRO II
    Autor*in: Hagos, Hosaena Ghebru; Smart, Jenny Cairns; Mogues, Tewodaj
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA

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    Schriftenreihe: IFPRI discussion paper ; 01877 (October 2019)
    Schlagworte: smallholders; farmers; agricultural extension; access to information; agricultural production;supply chain; crop production; farmers associations; impact assessment; surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Análise do efeito do Pronaf sobre a renda de agricultores familiares no meio rural nordestino
    Autor*in: Silva, Sandro Pereira; Ciríaco, Juliane da Silva
    Erschienen: dezembro de 2022
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília

    This research aims to investigate the effect of the National Program for the Strengthening of Family Agriculture (Pronaf) on income from work in rural Northeastern Brazil. For this purpose, data from the 2014 National Household Sample Survey (PNAD)... mehr

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    This research aims to investigate the effect of the National Program for the Strengthening of Family Agriculture (Pronaf) on income from work in rural Northeastern Brazil. For this purpose, data from the 2014 National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) were used and the propensity score matching (PSM) technique was applied. In general terms, the analyzes found show that the program provided an improvement in the income of agricultural work in the rural northeast. Estimates from the average treatment effect model showed that those who participate in Pronaf have an average income 29.3% higher compared to non-beneficiaries.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2827
    Schlagworte: family farming; public policy; rural credit; impact assessment; income generation
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