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  1. Monetary policy in the age of automation
    Autor*in: Wolf, Martin; Fornaro, Luca
    Erschienen: 01 August 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16416
    Schlagworte: monetary policy; automation; fiscal expansions; hysteresis; liquidity traps; secularstagnation; endogenous productivity; wages
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Estimating hysteresis effects
    Autor*in: Furlanetto, Francesco; Lepetit, Antoine; Robstad, Ørjan; Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco; Ulvedal, Pål
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    In this paper, we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular when the... mehr

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    In this paper, we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular when the sample includes the Great Recession. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment, although output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least productive workers.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2021, 24 (November 2021)
    Schlagworte: hysteresis; structural vector autoregressions; sign restrictions; long-run restrictions; employment; labor productivity; local projections
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Hysteresis in unemployment
    evidence from OECD estimates of the natural rate
    Autor*in: Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same... mehr

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    This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our baseline specification, a one percentage point deviation of u from u* for one year has a long-run effect of 0.16 points on both variables. When we allow asymmetry, we find, perhaps surprisingly, that decreases in u have larger long-run effects than increases in u.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289949125
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    hdl: 10419/249898
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2625 (December 2021)
    Schlagworte: hysteresis; unemployment; natural rate; high-pressure economy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Switching-track after the great recession
    Autor*in: Vinci, Francesca; Licandro, Omar
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, encompassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy... mehr

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    We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, encompassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower trajectory. A Taylor rule policy designed to reduce the output gap may counterbalance the shocks, preventing the destruction of economic capacity and inducing a V-shaped recovery. However, when shocks are deep and persistent enough, like during the Great Recession, they call for a downward revision of potential output measures, the so-called switching-track, weakening the recovering role of monetary policy and inducing an L-shaped recovery. When calibrated to the U.S. economy, the model replicates well the L-shaped recovery and switching-track that followed the Great Recession, as well as the V-shaped recoveries that followed the oil shock recessions.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236649
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9107 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Great Recession; economic recovery; endogenous growth; hysteresis; trend shift; switching-track; supply destruction prevention; economic capacity; monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 75 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Youth unemployment hysteresis in South Africa
    macro-micro analysis
    Autor*in: Maskaeva, Asiya; Msafiri, Mgeni
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    This study simulates the macro-micro economic impacts of the employment policy, focusing on hysteresis in youth unemployment in South Africa. Specifically, we apply a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calibrate the 2015 South African... mehr

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    This study simulates the macro-micro economic impacts of the employment policy, focusing on hysteresis in youth unemployment in South Africa. Specifically, we apply a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calibrate the 2015 South African Social Accounting Matrix to estimate, compare, and determine the impact of employment policy on youth unemployment as well as on aggregate economic outcomes. We simulate two scenarios where we reduce the import price of fuel by 20 per cent. Then, the total government savings from the reduced transport subsidy are reallocated to the education sector to support the unemployed youth. The research findings indicate that demand for youth labour increases in the long run, resulting in a decline in the unemployment rate. Moreover, the consumer price index decreased more than nominal income, thereby increasing household purchasing power and, potentially, easing poverty.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292569549
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    hdl: 10419/229421
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2021, 20
    Schlagworte: computable general equilibrium model; hysteresis; youth unemployment; employment policy; South Africa
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The scars of supply shocks
    Autor*in: Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin
    Erschienen: October 2020
    Verlag:  GSE, Graduate School of Economics, Barcelona

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    Schriftenreihe: Barcelona GSE working paper series ; no 1214
    Schlagworte: supply shocks; Covid-19; hysteresis; investment; endogenous growth; monetary policy; fiscal policy; zero lower bound; Keynesian growth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Supply or demand?
    policy makers' confusion in the pesence of hysteresis
    Autor*in: Fatás, Antonio; Singh, Sanjay R.
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  [University of California, Davis, Department of Economics], [Davis, CA]

    Policy makers need to separate between temporary demand-driven shocks and permanent shocks in order to design optimal aggregate demand policies. In this paper we study the case of a central bank that ignores the presence of hysteresis when... mehr

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    Policy makers need to separate between temporary demand-driven shocks and permanent shocks in order to design optimal aggregate demand policies. In this paper we study the case of a central bank that ignores the presence of hysteresis when identifying shocks. By assuming that all low-frequency output fluctuations are driven by permanent technology shocks, monetary policy is not aggressive enough in response to demand shocks. In addition, we show that errors in assessing the state of the economy can be self-perpetuating if seen through the lens of the mistaken views of the policy maker. We show that a central bank that mistakes a demand shock for a supply shock, will produce permanent effects on output through their suboptimal policies. Ex-post, the central bank will see an economy that resembles what they had forecast when designing their policies. The shock is indeed persistent and this persistence validates their assumption that the shock was a supply-driven one. The interaction between forecasts, policies and hysteresis creates the dynamics of self-perpetuating errors that is the focus of this paper.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267011
    Schriftenreihe: [Working papers / University of California, Davis, Department of Economics ; 347]
    Schlagworte: business cycles; hysteresis; Potential Output; Stabilization Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten)
  8. Hysteresis, endogenous growth, and monetary policy
    Autor*in: Amador, Sebastián
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  [University of California, Davis, Department of Economics], [Davis, CA]

    I provide evidence of substantial hysteresis (i.e., a situation in which temporary shocks have longrun effects) from monetary shocks on two sources of endogenous growth; human capital and technological adoption. This contribution is the first to test... mehr

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    I provide evidence of substantial hysteresis (i.e., a situation in which temporary shocks have longrun effects) from monetary shocks on two sources of endogenous growth; human capital and technological adoption. This contribution is the first to test for the presence of this phenomenon in direct measures of the supply-side potential of economies, instead of indirect measures, e.g., TFP. To estimate the effects of exogenous monetary policy shocks, I improve on the the trilemma identification by incorporating a mean-unbiased instrumental variable estimator. Results show substantial hysteresis in both human capital and technological adoption. Importantly, these are found to be asymmetric, as only contractionary shocks result in long lasting responses. I evaluate the aggregate importance of monetary hysteresis with a growth accounting exercise. Across the 17 countries in sample, the accumulated average cost of monetary hysteresis ranges between 1.2 and 9.6% of TFP, for human capital and the adoption of electricity, respectively.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: [Working papers / University of California, Davis, Department of Economics ; 348]
    Schlagworte: hysteresis; money non-neutrality; endogenous growth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Supply or demand?
    policy makers' confusion in the presence of hysteresis
    Autor*in: Fatás, Antonio; Singh, Sanjay R.
    Erschienen: 18 April 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17232
    Schlagworte: Potential Output; hysteresis; Stabilization Policy; business cycles
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Monetary policy in the age of automation
    Autor*in: Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Department of Economics and Business, Barcelona

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: Updated version
    Schriftenreihe: Economics working paper series ; no. 1794
    Schlagworte: monetary policy; automation; fiscal expansions; hysteresis; liquidity traps; secular stagnation; endogenous productivity; wages
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Monetary policy in the age of automation
    Autor*in: Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  BSE, Barcelona School of Economics, [Barcelona]

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: Revised: November 2021
    Schriftenreihe: BSE working paper ; 1290 (July 2021 )
    Schlagworte: monetary policy; automation; fiscal expansions; hysteresis; liquidity traps; secular stagnation; endogenous productivity; wages
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Switching-track after the Great Recession
    Autor*in: Vinci, Francesca; Licandro, Omar
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  GSE, Graduate School of Economics, Barcelona

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    Schriftenreihe: Barcelona GSE working paper series ; no 1260
    Schlagworte: hysteresis; trend shift; switching-track; great recession; Economic Recovery; Endogenous Growth; Supply Destruction Prevention; Economic Capacity; Monetary Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. The optimal control of infectious diseases via prevention and treatment
    Autor*in: Rowthorn, Bob; Toxvaerd, Flavio
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge

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    Schriftenreihe: Cambridge working paper in economics ; 2027
    Cambridge-INET working paper series ; no.: 2020, 13
    Schlagworte: Economic epidemiology; treatment; prevention; optimal and equilibrium policy mix; hysteresis; non-convex systems; COVID-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 88 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Demand shocks, hysteresis and monetary policy
    Autor*in: Sim, Jae W.
    Erschienen: October 4, 2022
    Verlag:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2022, 080
    Schlagworte: demand shocks; hysteresis; monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. The asymmetric effect of wage floors
    a natural experiment with a rising and falling minimum wage
    Autor*in: Huet-Vaughn, Emiliano; Piqueras, Jon
    Erschienen: December 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Exploiting a unique natural experiment,we showthe asymmetric effects of a large increase and an equivalent subsequent decrease to a binding minimum wage. Wages in a leading low-wage industry increase as the minimumwage rises, but do not fall when it... mehr

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    Exploiting a unique natural experiment,we showthe asymmetric effects of a large increase and an equivalent subsequent decrease to a binding minimum wage. Wages in a leading low-wage industry increase as the minimumwage rises, but do not fall when it is lowered. This boost for low-wage workers' earnings is apparently permanent five years after the policy is revoked, providing novel evidence of hysteresis in wage setting from temporary labor policy. In the first year post repeal this is consistent with downward nominal wage rigidity. But, the elevated earnings persist even in high inflation times, contrary to the prediction from existing work that real wage reductions under high inflation should erode the nominal wage gap relative to unaffected firms. Our findings thus challenge the conventional view that inflation "greases the wheels" of the labor market in the face of downward nominal wage rigidity, and, demonstrate the value of even transitory labor market policy in achieving permanent gains for workers (play it while you got it).

     
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    hdl: 10419/282811
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16684
    Schlagworte: hysteresis; minimum wage; downward nominal wage rigidity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Investigating unemployment hysteresis in South Africa
    Autor*in: Viegi, Nicola; Dadam, Vincent
    Erschienen: 7 June 2023
    Verlag:  Economic Research and Statistics Department, South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria

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    Schriftenreihe: South African Reserve Bank working paper series ; WP, 23, 04
    Schlagworte: Unemployment; hysteresis; nominal wages; mark-up; insider-outsider dynamics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. More than a she-recession
    long-term feminization and short-term pandemic effects
    Autor*in: Nelli, Linnea; Virgillito, Maria Enrica
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen

    The Covid-19 crisis has been defined as a "She-recession" because of its disproportionate impact on female employment by contrast to past recessions defined as "Man-recessions", for the usual disproportionate impact on men. The roots of the... mehr

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    The Covid-19 crisis has been defined as a "She-recession" because of its disproportionate impact on female employment by contrast to past recessions defined as "Man-recessions", for the usual disproportionate impact on men. The roots of the She-recession can be however traced back to the persistence of gender asymmetries both intra-household and extra-household in the labour market, a phenomenon known as feminization. This paper aims at measuring and explaining the gender differences in the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the Italian labour market from a macroeconomic perspective. We measure the duration, depth and diffusion of the Covid-19 crisis on job losses, structural unemployment and inactivity. We find that the impact of the Covid-19 crisis has been more than proportional for women, especially for low educated female workers and working in the South during 2020.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: GLO discussion paper ; no. 1291
    Schlagworte: feminization; hysteresis; labour markets
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Dynamic hysteresis effects
    Autor*in: Li, Mengheng; Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  University of Utah, Department of Economics, [Salt Lake City, UT]

    We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the long-run... mehr

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    We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the long-run recession-induced adverse effects from other trend-cycle interactions. The proposed models nest several existing UC models in the literature and accommodate two key characteristics of output dynamics: non-neutrality in the long-run and the time-to-build effect. Using Bayesian estimation methods, we find robust evidence supporting the presence of hysteresis effects after the 1970s, with the negative long-run effect of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 recessions robustly identified. Via Bayesian model averaging, we provide precise and intuitive output gap estimates that highlight the relationship between business cycle fluctuations and the decline in economic growth. Our findings indicate that output trend-cycle decompositions that do not consider hysteresis effects can alter stabilization policy trade-offs.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / University of Utah, Department of Economics ; no: 2024, 01 (January 2024)
    Schlagworte: hysteresis; time-to-build effect; trends and cycles; permanent and transitory shocks; state space models; unobserved components
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Long-term effects of shocks on new opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship
    Autor*in: Congregado, Emilio; Fossen, Frank M.; Rubino, Nicola; Troncoso, David
    Erschienen: April 2024
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    The dynamics of startup activity are crucial for job creation, innovation, and a competitive economy. Does regional firm formation exhibit hysteresis, such that shocks, including those induced by temporary policy interventions, have permanent... mehr

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    The dynamics of startup activity are crucial for job creation, innovation, and a competitive economy. Does regional firm formation exhibit hysteresis, such that shocks, including those induced by temporary policy interventions, have permanent effects? Due to the pronounced heterogeneity among new entrepreneurs, it is important to distinguish between those pulled by opportunity and those pushed by necessity. This distinction allows evaluating the long-term effects of policies aimed at stimulating opportunity entrepreneurship versus active labor-market policies supporting self-employment as a way out of unemployment. Based on 84 waves of quarterly microdata from the Spanish Labor Force Survey, we create time series of new opportunity and new necessity entrepreneurship for the 17 Spanish regions. To test whether exogenous shocks have long-run effects on firm formation, we apply a battery of panel data and time series unit root tests accounting for deterministic breaks. We also present results for the different Spanish regions and industrial sectors. We find that hysteresis is more widespread in new opportunity than in new necessity entrepreneurship, implying that shocks and temporary policies are more likely to shift opportunity than necessity entrepreneurship in the long run. Moreover, we document that the global Financial Crisis of 2008 changed the technology of firm formation out of opportunity, but not out of necessity. Our analysis opens the door to further research on the long-term effectiveness of a regional and sectoral policy mix of entrepreneurship promotion and active labor market policies.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/295953
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16930
    Schlagworte: self-employment; opportunity entrepreneurship; necessity entrepreneurship; firm formation; hysteresis; stationarity; regions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Employment hysteresis
    an argument for avoiding front-loaded fiscal consolidations in the eurozone
    Autor*in: Mota, Paulo R.; Fernandes, Abel L.; Vasconcelos, Paulo B.
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  School of Economics and Management, University of Porto, Porto

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 505
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    keine Fernleihe
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: FEP working papers ; n. 610 (nov 2018)
    Schlagworte: employment; fiscal multipliers; hysteresis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten)
  21. Does the deregulation of the labour market reduce employment hysteresis?
    an analysis in a low interest rate environment
    Autor*in: Mota, Paulo R.; Vasconcelos, Paulo B.
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  School of Economics and Management, University of Porto, Porto

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 505
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: FEP working papers ; n. 611 (nov 2018)
    Schlagworte: employment; hysteresis; uncertainty; employment protection legislation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. The effects of fiscal policy on employment
    an analysis of the aggregate evidence
    Autor*in: Tafuro, Andrea
    Erschienen: [2015]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice Italy

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Economics ; 2015, no. 03
    Schlagworte: fiscal policy; labor market; narrative approach; panel data; hysteresis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Long-term unemployment and convexity in the Phillips curve
    Autor*in: Speigner, Bradley
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 198 (519)
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Bank of England ; 519
    Schlagworte: Phillips curve; convexity; natural rate of unemployment; Kalman filter; long-term unemployment; hysteresis
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (22 S.), graph. Darst.
  24. How did forecasters respond to the American growth slowdown since the mid-2000s?
    Autor*in: Kirwin, Daniel; Mathy, Gabriel
    Erschienen: 2017
    Verlag:  Economics, College of Arts & Sciences, American University, Washington, DC

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Economics, College of Arts & Sciences, American University ; 2017, 02
    Schlagworte: Forecast errors; growth slowdown; secular stagnation; hysteresis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen