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  1. The return expectations of public pension funds
    Erschienen: 14 October 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16635
    Schlagworte: institutional investors; pension funds; Return Expectations; asset allocation; extrapolation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 102 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Bank manager sentiment, loan growth and bank risk
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany

    We build a textual score measuring the tone of bank earnings press release documents. We use this measure to define bank manager sentiment as the variation in the textual tone score which is orthogonal to bank-specific and macroeconomic fundamentals.... mehr

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    We build a textual score measuring the tone of bank earnings press release documents. We use this measure to define bank manager sentiment as the variation in the textual tone score which is orthogonal to bank-specific and macroeconomic fundamentals. Using this definition of sentiment, we present evidence on how bank managers’ systematic overoptimism affects the amount of credit that they supply to the real sector. Our empirical evidence suggests that decisions on the volume of new loans partially depend on past realizations of economic fundamentals, implying that loan growth and contemporaneous economic fundamentals might be systematically disconnected. Furthermore, we show that over-optimism on the part of bank managers spills over to their equity investors, who seem to perceive banks with high bank manager sentiment as having a lower systemic risk.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/268245
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 22, 066 (12/2022)
    Schlagworte: sentiment; text data; extrapolation; loan growth; systemic risk
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Statistical tests for cross-validation of Kriging models
    Erschienen: 3 June 2019
    Verlag:  CentER, Center for Economic Research, Tilburg

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / CentER, Center for Economic Research ; no. 2019, 022
    Schlagworte: validation; cross-validation; Kriging; Gaussian process; extrapolation; convex hull; Monte Carlo
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Energy prices and inflation expectations
    evidence from households and firms
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    I investigate how households and firms adjust their inflation expectations when experiencing an increase in their energy prices. I use monthly panel survey data in combination with a difference-in-difference approach to show that households increase... mehr

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    I investigate how households and firms adjust their inflation expectations when experiencing an increase in their energy prices. I use monthly panel survey data in combination with a difference-in-difference approach to show that households increase their inflation expectations when they personally experience an increase in their electricity prices. This result is inconsistent with full-information rational expectations but can be rationalized by households extrapolating their personal experience. The effect is driven by low-income households, households who are uninformed about past inflation, and those not trusting the ECB. Due to households extrapolating, their inflation forecasts become less accurate and diverge more from professional forecasts. Contrary to households, firms do not extrapolate energy price increases to their inflation expectations. Thus, decision-makers in firms form their expectations similarly to high-income households.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9783957299628
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/279809
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2023, 28
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; households; firms; energy prices; extrapolation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Do teams alleviate or exacerbate the extrapolation bias in the stock market?
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2335
    Schlagworte: expectation formation; extrapolation; heuristics; teams
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 109 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Is Venezuela still an upper-middle-income country?
    estimating the GNI per capita for 2015-2021
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  IDB, Inter-American Development Bank, [Washington, DC]

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / IDB, Inter-American Development Bank ; no IDB-DP-976
    Schlagworte: Atlas method; country classifications; deflator; extrapolation; GNI per capita; gross national income; Venezuela
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen