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  1. US tax and spending shocks 1950-2019
    SVAR overidentification with external instruments
    Erschienen: 7-2021
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada

    An SVAR in US federal spending, federal revenue, and GDP is a standard setting for the study of the impact of fiscal shocks. An appealing feature of identifying a fiscal shock with an external instrument is that one can find the effects of that shock... mehr

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    An SVAR in US federal spending, federal revenue, and GDP is a standard setting for the study of the impact of fiscal shocks. An appealing feature of identifying a fiscal shock with an external instrument is that one can find the effects of that shock without fully identifying the SVAR. But we show that fully or almost fully instrumenting the SVAR allows one to overidentify the model by restricting the shock covariances to be zero. In this application the overidentifying restrictions are not rejected. Compared to the unrestricted case the restricted SVAR yields (a) greater precision in estimating impulse response functions and multipliers and (b) smaller estimated effects of government spending shocks on output growth.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/247203
    Schriftenreihe: Queen's Economics Department working paper ; no. 1461
    Schlagworte: structural vector autoregression; fiscal policy; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Estimating production functions in differentiated-product industries with quantity information and external instruments
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  CEDE, Centro de Estudios sobre Desarrollo Económico, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 000089/018705
    Schriftenreihe: Documento CEDE ; 2021, 2 (enero de 2021)
    Schlagworte: production-function estimation; quality; variety; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 94 Seiten)
  3. The real effects of financial uncertainty shocks: a daily identification approach
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  [Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile], [Macul, Santiago, Chile]

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    Schriftenreihe: Documento de trabajo / Instituto de Economia, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ; 559 (2021)
    Schlagworte: uncertainty shocks; financial shocks; structural vector autoregression; high-frequencyidentification; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Identification of structural vector autoregressions by stochastic volatility
    Erschienen: June 2020
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 869
    Schlagworte: Structural vector autoregression (SVAR); identification via heteroskedasticity; stochastic volatility; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten)
  5. Identification of SVAR models by combining sign restrictions with external instruments
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 961
    Schlagworte: KStructural vector autoregressive model; sign restrictions; external instruments; proxy VAR
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the... mehr

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    High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the relevance of these monetary policy surprises as instruments, especially for estimating the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks. For example, monetary policy surprises are correlated with macroeconomic and financial data that is publicly available prior to the FOMC announcement. We address these concerns in two ways: First, we expand the set of monetary policy announcements to include speeches by the Fed Chair, which essentially doubles the number and importance of announcements in our dataset. Second, we explain the predictability of the monetary policy surprises in terms of the "Fed response to news" channel of Bauer and Swanson (2021) and account for it by orthogonalizing the surprises with respect to macroeconomic and financial data. Our subsequent reassessment of the effects of monetary policy yields two key results: First, estimates of the high-frequency effects on financial markets are largely unchanged. Second, estimates of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy are substantially larger and more significant than what most previous empirical studies have found.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251765
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Conference draft
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 165 (2022)
    Schlagworte: FOMC; policy rule; monetary transmission; SVAR; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the... mehr

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    High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the relevance of these monetary policy surprises as instruments, especially for estimating the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks. For example, monetary policy surprises are correlated with macroeconomic and financial data that is publicly available prior to the FOMC announcement. We address these concerns in two ways: First, we expand the set of monetary policy announcements to include speeches by the Fed Chair, which essentially doubles the number and importance of announcements in our dataset. Second, we explain the predictability of the monetary policy surprises in terms of the "Fed response to news" channel of Bauer and Swanson (2021) and account for it by orthogonalizing the surprises with respect to macroeconomic and financial data. Our subsequent reassessment of the effects of monetary policy yields two key results: First, estimates of the high-frequency effects on financial markets are largely unchanged. Second, estimates of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy are substantially larger and more significant than what most previous empirical studies have found.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/260772
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9642 (2022)
    Schlagworte: FOMC; policy rule; monetary transmission; SVAR; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Measuring monetary policy shocks in India
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai

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    Schriftenreihe: [WP series / Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research] ; WP-2021, 021
    Schlagworte: monetary policy; Reserve Bank of India; event study; monetary transmission,structural VAR; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Interest rate surprises
    a tale of two shocks
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  [Federal Reserve Bank of Boston], [Boston]

    Interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements reveal both the surprise in the monetary policy stance (the pure policy shock) and interest rate movements driven by exogenous information about the economy from the central bank (the information... mehr

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    Interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements reveal both the surprise in the monetary policy stance (the pure policy shock) and interest rate movements driven by exogenous information about the economy from the central bank (the information shock). In order to disentangle the effects of these two shocks, we use interest rate changes on days of macroeconomic data releases. On these release dates, there are no pure policy shocks, which allows us to identify the impact of information shocks and thereby distill pure policy shocks from interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements. Our results show that there is a prominent central bank information component in the widely used high-frequency policy rate surprise measure that needs to be parsed out. When we remove this central bank information component, the estimated effects of monetary policy shocks are more pronounced relative to those estimated using the entire policy rate surprise.

     

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    hdl: 10419/250739
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: January 2022
    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ; no. 22, 2
    Schlagworte: monetary policy; central bank information; high-frequency identification; proxy structuralVAR; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Interest rate surprises
    a tale of two shocks
    Erschienen: August 2022
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Dallas

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 2213
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; central bank information; high frequency identification; proxy structural VAR; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in Japan
    an analysis using interest rate futures surprises
    Erschienen: February, 2023
    Verlag:  Center for Advanced Research in Finance, [Tokyo]

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; CARF-F-555
    Schlagworte: Unconventional monetary policy; high-frequency identification; structural vector autoregressive models; external instruments; effective lower bound
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Identification of SVAR models by combining sign restrictions with external instruments
    Erschienen: May 2020
    Verlag:  GSDS – Graduate School of Decision Sciences, University of Konstanz, Konstanz

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    Schriftenreihe: GSDS working paper ; no. 2020, 01
    Schlagworte: Structural vector autoregressive model; sign restrictions; external instruments; Proxy VAR
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Are the effects of uncertainty shocks big or small?
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  [Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile], [Macul, Santiago, Chile]

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    Schriftenreihe: Documento de trabajo / Instituto de Economia, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ; 569 (2023)
    Schlagworte: uncertainty shocks; financial shocks; structural vector autoregression; high-frequencyidentification; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Interest rate surprises
    a tale of two shocks
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  [London School of Economics and Political Science], [London, UK]

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This draft: July 2023
    Schriftenreihe: [CFM discussion paper series] ; [CFM-DP 2023, 20]
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; central bank information; high frequency identification; proxy structural VAR; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten)
  15. Bayesian vector autoregressions
    Erschienen: September 2018
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 756
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; local projections; VARs; expectations; information rigidity; survey forecasts; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten)
  16. Financial shocks, credit spreads and the international credit channel
    Erschienen: November 2017
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 693
    Schlagworte: SVAR; credit channel; international transmission; external instruments; sign restrictions; financial shocks; monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. The transmission of monetary policy shocks
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  OFCE, Paris

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    Schriftenreihe: Sciences Po OFCE working paper ; no 2017, 15 (2017/05/05)
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; local projections; VARs; expectations; information rigidity; survey forecasts; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The transmission of monetary policy shocks
    Erschienen: April 2017
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 657
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; local projections; VARs; expectations; information rigidity; survey forecasts; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen