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  1. 60 %, -4 % and 6 %, a tale of thresholds for EU fiscal and current account developments
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study the relationship between the budget balance and the current account balance for European Union(EU) countries, using quarterly data from1995 to2020. Through the use of panel Granger causality tests and a panel SUR model, we conclude that the... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 677
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We study the relationship between the budget balance and the current account balance for European Union(EU) countries, using quarterly data from1995 to2020. Through the use of panel Granger causality tests and a panel SUR model, we conclude that the relationship is bi-directional for the EU panelas a whole. Furthermore, we find that in Eurozone countries, before 2010, for those countries with an average current account balance-to-GDP ratio outside the range of -4 to6%, and also in countries whose average debt-to-GDP ratio is greater than 60%, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is greater. Conversely, in non-Eurozone countries, after 2010, in countries with a current account balance-to-GDP ratio of -4 to 6%, and also in countries with an average debt-to-GDP ratio of less than 60%, the impact of the fiscal balance on the current account balance is less relevant.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/245909
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 69 (2021, September)
    Schlagworte: budget deficit; external deficit; European Union; panel data; time series
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  2. The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances
    evidence from the European Union
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We revisit the relation between budget deficits and current account deficits for 28 European Union countries from 1996 to 2019. We find that an increase in budget deficit of 1 pp of GDP results in a deterioration of the current account deficit of... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 677
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We revisit the relation between budget deficits and current account deficits for 28 European Union countries from 1996 to 2019. We find that an increase in budget deficit of 1 pp of GDP results in a deterioration of the current account deficit of 0.318 pp of GDP, which supports the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. On the other hand, dynamic panel estimates partially corroborate the Equivalence Ricardian Hypothesis in the presence of a fiscal rules index. In addition: i) the relation between the two deficits is asymmetric and the negative impact of the recent Eurozone banking and sovereign debt crisis on the current account balance is observed; ii) after 2010, the budget balance positively affects the current account balance; and iii) the positive impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is higher in the cases of non-Eurozone countries, high budget deficit countries, and low exports countries, whereas it is lower in the cases of Eurozone countries, low budget deficit countries, and high exports countries.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/233802
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 57 (2021, February)
    Schlagworte: budget deficit; external deficit; European Union; fiscal rules; panel data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Fiscal and current account imbalances
    the cases of Germany and Portugal
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We investigate the bilateral relationship between government budget balances and current account balances for Portugal and Germany. We find that the response of the current account balance to the budget balance is greater in Portugal than in... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 677
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We investigate the bilateral relationship between government budget balances and current account balances for Portugal and Germany. We find that the response of the current account balance to the budget balance is greater in Portugal than in Germany. On the other hand, the response of the budget balance to the current balance is higher in Germany than in Portugal. In Portugal and Germany, a fiscal rules index has a negative impact on the current account balance and the government effectiveness index has a positive impact on the government balance. The public debt as a percentage of GDP positively affects the current account balance in Portugal, and in Germany it does not. During the period of implementation of the external assistance programme in Portugal, the current account balance improved, while the government balance did not.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/272955
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 72 (2021, December)
    Schlagworte: budget deficit; external deficit; Portugal; Germany; fiscal rules; time-series
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen