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  1. The asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm-level investment in South Africa
    firm-level evidence from administrative tax data
    Autor*in: Lesame, Keagile
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    This paper uses firm-level data and a news-based measure of economic policy uncertainty to provide empirical evidence that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on firm-level investment in South Africa. Firms' investment decisions in... mehr

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    This paper uses firm-level data and a news-based measure of economic policy uncertainty to provide empirical evidence that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on firm-level investment in South Africa. Firms' investment decisions in response to uncertainty reflect firms' heterogeneity. Medium-sized firms and, to a different extent, small firms reduce their investment by much more than large firms in response to increased policy uncertainty. The relationship between firms categorized by size and the degree of financial constraints they face implies that financially constrained firms are more sensitive to uncertainty than large, unconstrained firms.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789292569907
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/243378
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2021, 52
    Schlagworte: economic policy uncertainty; firm-level investment; South Africa; firm heterogeneity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The power of text-based indicators in forecasting the Italian economic activity
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Banca d'Italia Eurosistema, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: Temi di discussione / Banca d'Italia ; number 1321 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: forecasting; text mining; sentiment; economic policy uncertainty; big data; BMA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten)
  3. The implications of economic uncertainty for bank loan portfolios
    Erschienen: October 2020
    Verlag:  Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, [Ahmedabad]

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    Schriftenreihe: IIMA working paper ; W.P. no. 2020, 10-02
    Schlagworte: household credit; economic policy uncertainty; bank capital ratio; bank size
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Effectives of monetary policy under the high and low economic uncertainty states: evidence from the major Asian economies
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This study examines the monetary policy effectiveness of five major Asian countries (China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea) using a quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) model-based spillover estimation approach of Balcilar et al. (2020b)... mehr

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    This study examines the monetary policy effectiveness of five major Asian countries (China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea) using a quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) model-based spillover estimation approach of Balcilar et al. (2020b) at different quantile paths. To do this, we first obtain the spillover index from interest rate to industrial production and consumer price index under the high and low levels of uncertainty. The full sample results from our analysis provide partial supporting evidence for the economic theory, which asserts that monetary policy efficiency must fall during periods of high economic uncertainty. Furthermore, this approach also allows us to uncover asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and lending rate on macroeconomic indicators. The impacts of interest rate and domestic and foreign (US, EU) uncertainty shocks on major Asian markets present significant asymmetric characteristics. Moreover, our time-varying results suggest that monetary policy shocks are more effective and potent on Asian economies during very low and very high uncertain times than normal economic periods.

     

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    hdl: 10419/236451
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14420
    Schlagworte: economic policy uncertainty; monetary policy efficiency; quantile spillover; QVAR
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Economic uncertainty and divisive politics
    evidence from the dos Españas
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2102
    Schlagworte: economic policy uncertainty; civil war; social confl ict; agrarian reform; naturallanguage processing; tf-idf
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Economic policy uncertainty in Latin America
    measurement using Spanish newspapers and economic spillovers
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2024
    Schlagworte: economic policy uncertainty; uncertainty shocks; Latin America’s economies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The economic impact of Trump
    conclusions from an impact evaluation analysis
    Erschienen: October 26th 2020
    Verlag:  Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW), Wuppertal, Germany

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    Schriftenreihe: EIIW discussion paper ; 281
    Schlagworte: Trump; economic policy uncertainty; counterfactual; Panel Data Approach; LASSO
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The volatility of economic policy uncertainty
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  University of Cambridge, Judge Business School, Cambridge

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Cambridge Judge Business School ; no. 2021, 01
    Schlagworte: economic policy uncertainty; volatility clustering; GARCH estimation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Economic integration and exchange market pressure in a policy uncertain world
    Erschienen: January 2022
    Verlag:  Emerging Markets Group, Bayes Business School, City University, London

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    Schriftenreihe: EMG working paper series ; WP-EMG-2022, 02
    Schlagworte: financial integration; economic integration; economic policy uncertainty; monetary policy uncertainty; exchange market pressure
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten)
  10. How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate debt maturity?
    Autor*in: Li, Xiang
    Erschienen: [01. Februar 2022]
    Verlag:  Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, Halle (Saale), Germany

    This paper investigates whether and how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate debt maturity. Using a large firm-level dataset for four European countries, we find that an increase in economic policy uncertainty is significantly associated... mehr

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    This paper investigates whether and how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate debt maturity. Using a large firm-level dataset for four European countries, we find that an increase in economic policy uncertainty is significantly associated with a shortened debt maturity. Moreover, the impacts are stronger for innovation-intensive firms. We use firms’ flexibility in changing debt maturity and the deviation to leverage target to gauge the causal relationship, and identify the reduced investment and steepened term structure as the transmission mechanisms.

     

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    hdl: 10419/249745
    Schriftenreihe: IWH discussion papers ; 2022, no. 5 (February 2022)
    Schlagworte: capital structure; corporate investment; debt maturity; economic policy uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (III, 44 Seiten, A18, 0,97 MB), Diagramme
  11. The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Linz-Auhof, Austria

    The outcome of the referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union in June 2016 was largely unanticipated by politicians and pundits alike. Even after the "Leave" vote, the uncertainty surrounding the withdrawal process might have affected... mehr

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    The outcome of the referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union in June 2016 was largely unanticipated by politicians and pundits alike. Even after the "Leave" vote, the uncertainty surrounding the withdrawal process might have affected the UK economy. We draw on an official list of political events published by the House of Commons Library and daily data on UK stock prices, exchange rates, and economic policy uncertainty to construct a novel instrument for Brexit shocks. Including a monthly aggregate of this time series into a vector-autoregressive model of the UK economy, we find that Brexit shocks were quantitatively important drivers of the business cycle in the aftermath of the referendum that lowered gross domestic product, consumer confidence, and monetary policy rates while raising CPI inflation. A counterfactual experiment, in which we shut down the endogenous response of UK monetary policy to Brexit shocks, reveals that the Bank of England fended off a stronger contraction of output in 2016 and 2018.

     

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    hdl: 10419/269915
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University of Linz ; no. 2206 (May 2022)
    Schlagworte: Brexit; business cycle; economic policy uncertainty; high-frequency identification,monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Managing bank liquidity hoarding during uncertain times
    the role of board gender diversity
    Erschienen: 2 November 2022
    Verlag:  BOFIT, the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, Helsinki

    This paper examines the effect of executive board gender diversity on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and bank liquidity hoarding (LH). We focus on the Russian banking sector, which, relative to most of the world, has a... mehr

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    This paper examines the effect of executive board gender diversity on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and bank liquidity hoarding (LH). We focus on the Russian banking sector, which, relative to most of the world, has a high share of women on bank executive boards. Using the news-based EPU index developed by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) and LH measures proposed by Berger, Guedhami, Kim, and Li (2022), we exploit a unique dataset from the Russian banking sector. While higher economic policy uncertainty tends to increase liquidity hoarding, we find this effect diminishes as gender diversity of the board increases. We attribute this finding to the moderating influence of gender diversity on stability and overreaction in decision-making. Additionally, we find that the channel through which board gender diversity affects the impact of economic policy uncertainty on liquidity hoarding takes place via the hoarding of liquid assets. Our findings are robust to the use of alternative measures for economic policy uncertainty and gender diversity. As women are still significantly under-represented on bank boards in most countries, these results argue for policies to promote gender diversity of bank boards as a means of limiting detrimental effects of economic policy uncertainty.

     

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    ISBN: 9789523234222
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266095
    Schriftenreihe: BOFIT discussion papers ; 2022, 11
    Schlagworte: liquidity hoarding; bank boards; gender diversity; economic policy uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Risk-off shocks and spillovers in safe havens
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    This paper examines real and financial spillovers to safe haven financial flow destinations due to risk-off shocks in global financial markets. Using country-specific structural vector autoregression (VAR) models over the period 1990 to 2021, we show... mehr

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    This paper examines real and financial spillovers to safe haven financial flow destinations due to risk-off shocks in global financial markets. Using country-specific structural vector autoregression (VAR) models over the period 1990 to 2021, we show that dynamics for Japan appear to be different to those of Switzerland and the US in four main ways. First, in response to risk-off episodes over the estimation period, the yen real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciates sharply and significantly, with the effect persisting over time. Second, no significant effects on portfolio flows to Japan are found, in spite of the exchange rate effects, suggesting a rapid adjustment of financial markets to shifts in equilibrium exchange rates. Third, negative real spillovers from risk-off shocks appear to only apply to Japan with exchange rate appreciation exacerbating declines in GDP growth. Fourth, risk-off shocks do not have a statistically significant effect on domestic economic policy uncertainty in Japan, which may be related to the strong expectations priced in of overseas portfolio holdings repatriated back to Japan. Our findings have important implications for policymakers in safe haven destinations in managing domestic financial vulnerabilities associated with risk-off episodes.

     

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    hdl: 10419/272888
    Schriftenreihe: ADBI working paper series ; no. 1345 (November 2022)
    Schlagworte: risk-off episodes; safe haven assets; economic policy uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Tax provisioning by extractive industry multinational subsidiaries
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    Extractive industries are spread across mining of metal and minerals, oil and gas, among others. Multinationals in these sectors are confronted with different challenges ranging from corruption, political risk, economic uncertainty, sunk costs, and... mehr

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    Extractive industries are spread across mining of metal and minerals, oil and gas, among others. Multinationals in these sectors are confronted with different challenges ranging from corruption, political risk, economic uncertainty, sunk costs, and the long-gestation periods to execute projects. As a result, tax payment behaviour of subsidiaries in the extractive sector could be dependent not only on these factors, but also on the life cycle of the subsidiary, profitability, and holding structure. Furthermore, emerging economy multinationals in the extractive industries could be state-owned and may invest in foreign subsidiaries for strategic reasons. We examine tax provision in host countries by India's multinational subsidiaries in the extractive industry. Panel data analysis is carried out for the period 2010-20. It is found that tax provision remains lower in the initial years of subsidiary life and increases with the sustenance of subsidiary in the host country for a longer period. In addition, subsidiaries of public sector enterprises are found to have higher tax provisions than their private counterparts. When it comes to the determinants, economic policy uncertainty, corruption, and political stability are found to significantly affect tax provision.

     

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    ISBN: 9789292672669
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    hdl: 10419/273924
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2022, 133
    Schlagworte: extractive sector; tax provision; economic policy uncertainty; corruption; political stability; public sector
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 17 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. The asymmetric impact of economic policy and oil price uncertainty on inflation
    evidence from developed and emerging economies
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    This paper examines the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price uncertainty (OPU) on inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the 1990s... mehr

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    This paper examines the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price uncertainty (OPU) on inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the 1990s until August 2022 for a number of developed and emerging countries, we find that the estimated effects of both EPU and OPU shocks are larger when allowing for asymmetries in the context of the NARDL framework. Further, EPU shocks, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty, thereby reducing the direct effect of interest rate changes on inflation. Since EPU shocks reflect, at least to some extent, monetary policy uncertainty, greater transparency and more timely communications from monetary authorities to the public would be helpful to anchor inflation expectations.

     

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    hdl: 10419/271920
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10276 (2023)
    Schlagworte: inflation; asymmetries; NARDL; oil price uncertainty; economic policy uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Financial integration and European tourism stocks
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    This study examines the macro drivers of the time-varying (dynamic) connectedness between eleven European tourism sectors. Financial integration between the travel and leisure markets, measured by their dynamic correlations or co-movement, is... mehr

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    This study examines the macro drivers of the time-varying (dynamic) connectedness between eleven European tourism sectors. Financial integration between the travel and leisure markets, measured by their dynamic correlations or co-movement, is explained by common global fundamentals. The empirical results provide new evidence on the counter-cyclical behaviour of the correlations; in particular, stronger cross-country interdependence can be attributed to economic slowdowns characterized by higher uncertainty and geopolitical risk, tighter credit and liquidity conditions, and sluggish economic and real estate activity. Further, economic and political uncertainty is found to intensify the macro effects on tourism correlations. Finally, crises such as the 2008 financial turmoil, the subsequent European debt crisis, and the recent Covid-19 pandemic crash, also magnify the impact of macro drivers on the evolution of co-movement and integration in the tourism sector.

     

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    hdl: 10419/271913
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10269 (2023)
    Schlagworte: cross-country tourism correlations; economic policy uncertainty; financial/health crisis; financial integration; sectoral contagion; travel and leisure industry
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Does economic policy uncertainty encourage gambling?
    evidence from the Chinese welfare lottery market
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on gambling activity in China. Based on a theoretical model, we hypothesize that EPU increases the demand for hope which raises the willingness to pay for lottery tickets,... mehr

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    This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on gambling activity in China. Based on a theoretical model, we hypothesize that EPU increases the demand for hope which raises the willingness to pay for lottery tickets, resulting in higher lottery sales. We estimate a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model with an Error-Correction form using data on lottery sales in Chinese provinces to estimate the short- and long-run effect of EPU on gambling. Our results suggest that EPU has a significant positive effect on gambling in the short run. In addition, we find that this positive effect is less persistent if the EPU proxy is based on economic policy reports in national newspapers than when the EPU measure is derived from local newspaper reports. This may be explained by the different thematic focus and the different degrees of media censorship of national and local newspapers.

     

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    hdl: 10419/271885
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10241 (2023)
    Schlagworte: economic policy uncertainty; household behaviour under uncertainty; gambling behaviour; welfare lottery; China
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Using newspapers for textual indicators
    which and how many?
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2235
    Schlagworte: economic policy uncertainty; textual analysis; press coverage; Latin American economies; business cycles
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Construction and analysis of uncertainty indices based on multilingual text representations
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg

    The work by Baker et al. (2016), who propose a dictionary based method and estimate the level of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on the occurrence of specific terms in ten leading newspapers in the USA, is among the first ones to detect the... mehr

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    The work by Baker et al. (2016), who propose a dictionary based method and estimate the level of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on the occurrence of specific terms in ten leading newspapers in the USA, is among the first ones to detect the potential of text data in economic research. Following this line of research, this paper proposes automated approaches to construction of EPU indices for different countries based on newspapers' texts. First, multilingual fastText word embeddings and BERT text embeddings are used in order to define relevant EPU key words and EPU related articles, respectively. Further, multilingual conceptualized topic modeling introduced by Bianchi et al. (2021) is performed and EPU related topics are detected. It is shown that the constructed EPU indices based on fastText embeddings Granger cause the economic activity in all of the considered countries, namely Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. Also, some of the topics uncovered by multilingual conceptualized topic modeling have proved to Granger cause the economic activity in all of the considered countries.

     

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    hdl: 10419/278434
    Schriftenreihe: Joint discussion paper series in economics ; no. 2023, 10
    Schlagworte: text-as-data; fastText emeddings; BERT; economic policy uncertainty; natural language processing
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty, and their macroeconomic effects
    the case of Spain
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Hinweise zum Inhalt
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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 1905
    Schlagworte: economic uncertainty; economic policy uncertainty; impact of uncertainty shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. The economic policy uncertainty index for Cyprus
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, [Nicosia]

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Economic policy papers ; no. 22, 06 (September 2022)
    Schlagworte: economic policy uncertainty; Cyprus
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Effects of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment and strategic cash holdings
    evidence from Japan
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  RIETI, [Tokyo, Japan]

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    Schriftenreihe: RIETI discussion paper series ; 21-E, 069 (August 2021)
    Schlagworte: economic policy uncertainty; corporate investment; real option; cash holding
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten)
  23. Complex global interdependencies between economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks indices
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  RIETI, [Tokyo, Japan]

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    Schriftenreihe: RIETI discussion paper series ; 22-E, 028 (March 2022)
    Schlagworte: economic policy uncertainty; geopolitical risk; complex Hilbert principal component analysis; terrorist attack of September 11; global financial crisis; causality network
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Modeling the demand for money in light of economic uncertainty in Saudi Arabia
    Erschienen: March 2024
    Verlag:  Saudi Central Bank, [Riadh]

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    Schriftenreihe: SAMA working paper ; WP 2024, 4
    Schlagworte: Money demand; interest rate differential; economic policy uncertainty; Saudi Arabia; ARDL
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten)
  25. Uncertain trends in economic policy uncertainty
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Prague

    The news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty indices (EPU) of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom display discernible trends that can be found neither in other European countries nor in other uncertainty indicators. Therefore, we replicate the EPU... mehr

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    The news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty indices (EPU) of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom display discernible trends that can be found neither in other European countries nor in other uncertainty indicators. Therefore, we replicate the EPU index of European countries and show that these trends are sensitive to the rather arbitrary choice of normalizing the raw counts of news related to economic policy uncertainty by the count of all newspaper articles. We show that an alternative normalization by news on economic policy leads to different long-term dynamics with less pronounced trends and markedly lower uncertainty during recent periods of uncertainty such as Brexit or the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, our results suggest that the effects of uncertainty related to these events on economic activity may have been overestimated.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/286367
    Schriftenreihe: IES working paper ; 2024, 1
    Schlagworte: economic policy uncertainty; trend-cycle decomposition; reproducibility; reliability
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen