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  1. Addressing the pandemic's medium-term fallout in Australia and New Zealand
    Autor*in: Bannister, Geoffrey J.; Finger, Harald; Kido, Yosuke; Kothari, Siddharth; Loukoianova, Elena
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand... mehr

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
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    While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic's adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513563282
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/20, 272
    Schlagworte: Potential output; scarring; COVID-19; advanced economies; Australia; NewZealand; Advanced Economies; COVID-19; Potential Output; Scarring
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. World economy autumn 2021
    stumbling blocks on the road to recovery
    Autor*in: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    The German economy is picking up speed again. After the resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic had interrupted the economic recovery in the winter half-year, GDP will expand at a fast pace in the further course of the year and exceed its pre-crisis... mehr

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    The German economy is picking up speed again. After the resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic had interrupted the economic recovery in the winter half-year, GDP will expand at a fast pace in the further course of the year and exceed its pre-crisis level again. With the removal of the pandemic-related restrictions, activity will rebound, especially in those areas that were previously particularly burdened. Retail trade and contact-intensive services in particular are likely to benefit from the rebound in private household consumption. For the time being, however, the recovery will be delayed in the manufacturing industry. The strong global recovery has brought with it multi-layered supply bottlenecks that are noticeably hampering production in many firms. Despite the very good order situation, production in the manufacturing industry will therefore probably only gradually return to its recovery path in the second half of the year, provided that the supply bottlenecks then gradually ease. With the supply bottlenecks, price pressures have also increased, especially as economic momentum is high worldwide. Thus, prices for raw materials, intermediate goods and transport services have recently been on a broad upward trend. All in all, GDP is expected to grow by 3.9 percent this year and by 4.8 percent in 2022. Consumer prices will rise at a much faster rate of probably 2.6 percent this year and by around 2 percent in 2022.

     
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    hdl: 10419/244717
    Schriftenreihe: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 81 (2021/Q3)
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy; COVID19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. How collective bargaining shapes poverty
    new evidence for developed countries
    Autor*in: Pineda-Hernández, Kevin; Rycx, François; Volral, Mélanie
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Institut de recherche économiques et sociales, UC Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve

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    hdl: 2078.1/249713
    Schriftenreihe: LIDAM discussion paper IRES ; 2021, 19
    Schlagworte: Collective bargaining systems; poverty rates; social security expenditures; panel data; advanced economies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten)
  4. How collective bargaining shapes poverty: new evidence for developed countries
    Autor*in: Pineda-Hernández, Kevin; Rycx, François; Volral, Mélanie
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Although many studies point to the significant influence of collective bargaining institutions on earnings inequalities, evidence on how these institutions shape poverty rates across developed economies remains surprisingly scarce. It would be a... mehr

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    Although many studies point to the significant influence of collective bargaining institutions on earnings inequalities, evidence on how these institutions shape poverty rates across developed economies remains surprisingly scarce. It would be a mistake, though, to believe that the relationship between earnings inequalities and poverty is straightforward. Indeed, whereas earnings inequalities are measured at the individual level, poverty is calculated at the household level using equivalised (disposable) incomes. Accordingly, in most developed countries poverty is not primarily an issue of the working poor. This paper explicitly addresses the relationship between collective bargaining systems and working-age poverty rates in 24 developed countries over the period 1990-2015. Using an up-to-date and fine-grained taxonomy of bargaining systems and relying on state-of-the-art panel data estimation techniques, we find that countries with more centralised and/or coordinated bargaining systems display significantly lower working-age poverty rates than countries with largely or fully decentralised systems. However, this result only holds in a post-tax benefit scenario. Controlling for country-fixed effects and endogeneity, our estimates indeed suggest that the poverty-reducing effect of collective bargaining institutions stems from the political strength of trade unions in promoting public social spending rather than from any direct effect on earnings inequalities.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245606
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14555
    Schlagworte: collective bargaining systems; poverty rates; social security expenditures; panel data; advanced economies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. World economy in spring 2021
    recovery stays on track
    Autor*in: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    The global economy continued to recover in the winter semester, despite the number of new infections with the coronavirus rising sharply and containment measures tightened again in many countries. Industrial production and world trade have already... mehr

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    The global economy continued to recover in the winter semester, despite the number of new infections with the coronavirus rising sharply and containment measures tightened again in many countries. Industrial production and world trade have already fully catched up with activity levels before the pandemic and appear to be little affected by the second wave of Covid-19. While the European economy did slip into recession again, the decline in GDP is not expected to be dramatic and should be followed by a strong recovery from spring onward, provided that progress in vaccination allows a substantial and sustained relaxation of measures designed to suppress the virus. In the course of this year, the global upturn will thus increasingly extend to economic sectors that remain severely impeded for the time being, such as tourism and entertainment, and to economies that are particularly geared to these activities. On a purchasing power parity basis, global output is expected to increase by 6.7 percent in 2021 and by 4.7 percent in 2022, thus progressively closing the gap to the pre-crisis path of activity towards the end of the forecast period. We have raised our December forecast by 0.6 percent for both this year and next, with a particularly strong improvement in the outlook for the United States. World trade in goods is expected to grow by 7.5 percent this year. With growth of 4.7 percent this year and next, respectively, Towards the end of the forecast horizon world trade will thus be even higher than expected before the crisis.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236717
    Schriftenreihe: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 75 (2021/Q1)
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy; Americas; Asia; Business Cycle World; China; Emerging Markets & Developing Countries; Europe; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. How collective bargaining shapes poverty
    new evidence for developed countries
    Autor*in: Pineda-Hernández, Kevin; Rycx, François; Volral, Mélanie
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen

    Although many studies point to the significant influence of collective bargaining institutions on earnings inequalities, evidence on how these institutions shape poverty rates across developed economies remains surprisingly scarce. It would be a... mehr

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    Although many studies point to the significant influence of collective bargaining institutions on earnings inequalities, evidence on how these institutions shape poverty rates across developed economies remains surprisingly scarce. It would be a mistake, though, to believe that the relationship between earnings inequalities and poverty is straightforward. Indeed, whereas earnings inequalities are measured at the individual level, poverty is calculated at the household level using equivalised (disposable) incomes. Accordingly, in most developed countries poverty is not primarily an issue of the working poor. This paper explicitly addresses the relationship between collective bargaining systems and working-age poverty rates in 24 developed countries over the period 1990-2015. Using an up-to-date and fine-grained taxonomy of bargaining systems and relying on state-of-the-art panel data estimation techniques, we find that countries with more centralised and/or coordinated bargaining systems display significantly lower working-age poverty rates than countries with largely or fully decentralised systems. However, this result only holds in a post-tax benefit scenario. Controlling for country-fixed effects and endogeneity, our estimates indeed suggest that the poverty-reducing effect of collective bargaining institutions stems from the political strength of trade unions in promoting public social spending rather than from any direct effect on earnings inequalities.

     
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    hdl: 10419/235519
    Schriftenreihe: GLO discussion paper ; no. 877
    Schlagworte: Collective bargaining systems; poverty rates; social security expenditures; panel data; advanced economies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. World economy winter 2021: temporary slowdown
    Autor*in: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Reents, Jan; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    Following an encouraging first half of the year, the recovery of the global economy has lost momentum. Across the globe, resurging Covid-19 infections weighed on economic activity. Supply chain disruptions prevented a further expansion of global... mehr

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    Following an encouraging first half of the year, the recovery of the global economy has lost momentum. Across the globe, resurging Covid-19 infections weighed on economic activity. Supply chain disruptions prevented a further expansion of global industrial production, and the fast-moving recovery of the Chinese economy almost came to a sudden stop. The impact that the Omicron variant of the coronavirus will have on output remains uncertain at this stage. Over the next few months, we expect economic growth to be rather subdued before picking up again in 2022. We forecast global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) to increase by 5.7 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022, representing a downward revision of our previous forecast by 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points for 2021 and 2022, respectively. For 2023, we have increased our forecast modestly from 3.8 percent to 4.0 percent. Inflation is thought to have peaked as the contribution of the energy component to overall inflation is expected to decline considerably going forward. Nonetheless, upward pressures on prices are expected to persist given continued supply constraints, and inflation rates will likely remain well above their respective pre-Covid levels.

     
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    hdl: 10419/249741
    Schriftenreihe: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 85 (2021/Q4)
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy; COVID19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 14 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Operationalizing growth models
    Autor*in: Baccaro, Lucio; Hadziabdic, Sinisa
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, Cologne, Germany

    We present a new methodology for operationalizing growth models based on import-adjusted demand components. Applying the methodology to the latest release of OECD Input-Output Tables, we calculate the growth contributions of consumption, investment,... mehr

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    We present a new methodology for operationalizing growth models based on import-adjusted demand components. Applying the methodology to the latest release of OECD Input-Output Tables, we calculate the growth contributions of consumption, investment, government expenditures, and exports for sixty-six countries in the periods 1995 to 2007 and 2009 to 2018 and identify the respective growth models. We find that most countries are export-led or domestic demand-led and that other forms of growth are rare. Our results corroborate previous classifications in comparative political economy but also differ from them in significant respects. Importantly, our classification improves on previous ones by covering not just the advanced capitalist economies but also Central and Eastern European and South-East Asian and Latin American countries. In a further step, we illustrate how the new indicators can be used to analyze the "drivers" of different types of growth. This examination reveals that there is a clear trade-off between consumption- and export-led growth in advanced Western economies in the period 1995 to 2007 and a dependence of export-led growth in these countries on real exchange rate devaluation in the same period, while export complexity is not a significant predictor of export-led growth. Wir stellen eine neue Methode zur Operationalisierung von Wachstumsmodellen auf der Grundlage importbereinigter Nachfragekomponenten vor. Dabei berechnen wir anhand der aktuellen Input-Output-Tabellen der OECD den jeweiligen Wachstumsbeitrag von Konsum, Investitionen, Staatsausgaben und Exporten für 66 Länder in den Zeiträumen 1995-2007 und 2009-2018 und ermitteln die entsprechenden Wachstumsmodelle. Es zeigt sich, dass die meisten Länder ein vom Export oder von der Inlandsnachfrage getragenes Wachstum aufweisen und andere Wachstumsformen selten sind. Unsere Ergebnisse bestä- tigen bisherige Klassifikationen der Vergleichenden Politischen Ökonomie und unterschei- den sich gleichzeitig in wesentlichen Punkten von ihnen. Vor allem hat unsere Klassifikati- on im Vergleich zu bisherigen den Vorteil, dass sie sich nicht nur auf die fortgeschrittenen kapitalistischen Wirtschaftsordnungen, sondern auch auf Länder in Mittel- und Osteuropa und in Südostasien und Lateinamerika bezieht. Darüber hinaus erläutern wir, wie die neuen Indikatoren genutzt werden können, um die "Treiber" verschiedener Wachstumsformen zu ermitteln. Unsere Auswertung der Daten legt offen, dass es in fortgeschrittenen westli- chen Volkswirtschaften im Zeitraum 1995-2007 klare Zielkonflikte zwischen konsum- und exportorientiertem Wachstum und eine Abhängigkeit des exportorientierten Wachstums von realen Wechselkursabwertungen gegeben hat, während die Komplexität der Exporte keinen wesentlichen Einfluss auf das exportorientierte Wachstum hatte.

     
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    hdl: 21.11116/0000-000B-53B7-9
    Schriftenreihe: MPIfG discussion paper ; 22, 6
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; emerging economies; export-led growth; growth models,input-output tables; political economy; entwickelte Volkswirtschaften; exportorientiertes Wachstum; Input-Output-Tabellen; politische Ökonomie; Schwellenländer; Wachstumsmodelle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (IV, 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. World economy autumn 2022
    global growth falters
    Autor*in: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Kooths, Stefan; Reents, Jan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    In spring 2022, world economic growth came to a standstill amid high inflation, persistent supply bottlenecks and elevated uncertainty. In many countries real wages are declining significantly dampening private consumption even though extra savings... mehr

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    In spring 2022, world economic growth came to a standstill amid high inflation, persistent supply bottlenecks and elevated uncertainty. In many countries real wages are declining significantly dampening private consumption even though extra savings accumulated during the pandemic are still available to mitigate the adverse impact to some extent. At the same time financial conditions have also deteriorated as central banks tightened their policies. In China, the strict zero-covid policy and problems in the real estate sector are slowing economic activity. Against this backdrop, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated further. We have, again, lowered our forecast and are now expecting global output to increase by only 2.9 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year (calculated on a purchasing power parity basis). The forecast assumes that commodity prices will gradually decline in line with forward prices, which will over time reduce the upward pressure on prices and provides the foundations for an economic upturn in 2024. However, the pass-through of higher commodity prices into consumer prices is probably not yet complete and wage increases are likely to intensify in many countries. Consequently, underlying inflation is likely to remain higher than in the years before the Covid crisis and remain above central bank targets over the forecast horizon

     
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    hdl: 10419/266252
    Schriftenreihe: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 93 (2022/Q3)
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy
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  10. German economy autumn 2022
    protracted catching-up process
    Autor*in: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia; Sonnenberg, Nils
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    The German economy is in a downward spiral. The recent price jumps for electricity and gas will reduce the purchasing power of private households and lead to a decline in private consumer spending. In addition, the slowing world economy will dampen... mehr

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    The German economy is in a downward spiral. The recent price jumps for electricity and gas will reduce the purchasing power of private households and lead to a decline in private consumer spending. In addition, the slowing world economy will dampen not only exports but also investment activity. As a result, the German economy will slide into recession once again, at a time when it was just recovering from the pandemic-related crisis. In our summer forecast, we assumed that the recovery would prevail despite the burdens of the war in Ukraine and that GDP would rise strongly. Now we expect GDP to increase by only 1.4 percent in the current year (summer forecast: 2.1 per cent). In 2023, it is expected to decline by 0.7 percent (summer forecast: +3.3 percent). In 2024, when the impact of the negative factors fades out, GDP will increase by 1.7 percent. Provided that prices for electricity and gas remain high for a longer period of time - as markets currently expect - inflation is likely to rise from its record level of 8 percent in the current year to 8.7 percent in 2023, as market prices for electricity and gas reach consumer prices only with some delay. In 2024, when energy prices moderate somewhat, inflation is likely to settle down significantly. The recession will also leave its mark on the labour market. However, due to the shortage of skilled workers, the impact is likely to be comparatively moderate. The unemployment rate will rise from 5.3 percent this year to 5.6 percent in 2023. Despite considerable additional expenditures to cushion the high energy prices, the government's fiscal balance will probably hardly deteriorate, as the high upward pressure on prices leads to additional revenues. The ratio of gross debt to nominal GDP is even expected to decline from 68.7 percent in 2021 to 64.6 per cent in 2024, as nominal GDP will rise strongly due to the high price increases.

     
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    hdl: 10419/266253
    Schriftenreihe: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 95 (2022/Q3)
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy
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  11. German economy winter 2022
    recovery temporarily on hold
    Autor*in: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stamer, Vincent
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    Wholesale prices for gas and electricity have fallen significantly in recent months - even though they are still at a high level. In addition, the burdens on private households and companies caused by high energy costs are to be cushioned by... mehr

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    Wholesale prices for gas and electricity have fallen significantly in recent months - even though they are still at a high level. In addition, the burdens on private households and companies caused by high energy costs are to be cushioned by so-called price brakes. Overall, inflation in 2023 will be much lower at 5.4 percent than we had expected in our autumn forecast (8.7 percent). Although real disposable income and, as a result, private consumption are likely to decrease next year, the decline will be much smaller than had been expected a few months ago. As a result, we now expect a slight increase in GDP of 0.3 percent for 2023 (autumn: -0.7 percent). In 2024, GDP is expected to grow somewhat more strongly again at 1.3 percent (autumn: 1.7 percent). The labour market is robust despite the economic slowdown, partly because companies are still desperately seeking skilled workers. The public fiscal balance is likely to deteriorate significantly in 2023 due to the aid packages in response to the energy crisis and displays a deficit of around 4 percent relative to GDP. With the expiry of the aid packages, the deficit will decrease again in 2024.

     
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    hdl: 10419/268800
    Schriftenreihe: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 98 (2022/Q4)
    Schlagworte: energy crisis; advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy; Business Cycle Germany; Fiscal Policy & National Budgets; Germany; Labor Market
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. World economy winter 2022
    strong headwinds for global economic activity
    Autor*in: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Reents, Jan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    Global growth has decelerated over the course of the year under the impact of high energy prices and great uncertainty. Monetary policy, which is being tightened very quickly in view of high inflationary pressure across the board, is now also putting... mehr

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    Global growth has decelerated over the course of the year under the impact of high energy prices and great uncertainty. Monetary policy, which is being tightened very quickly in view of high inflationary pressure across the board, is now also putting a drag on economic activity. Overall, production remained on an upward trend into the fall, with impetus coming from easing supply bottlenecks and the continuing normalization of activity in those sectors of the economy particularly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Towards the end of the year, however, economic momentum weakened noticeably further. The major advanced economies in particular are currently facing a period of weak economic activity despite considerable fiscal support measures. At the same time, the problems for the Chinese economy remain significant. While global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) at 3.2 percent is expected to grow by 0.3 percentage points more this year than expected in September, we continue to forecast an increase of only 2.2 percent next year. For 2024, our expectation has even been reduced slightly to 3.2 percent, mainly because we do expect the US economy to recover slowly. Inflation is likely to have peaked and is expected to slow significantly over the forecast horizon thanks to lower commodity prices and easing economic tensions. However, underlying inflation is not likely to return to target levels until the end of the forecast period.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 97 (2022/Q4)
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy; COVID19; Americas; Asia; Business Cycle World; China; Emerging Markets & Developing Countries; Europe; USA
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  13. World economy in spring 2023
    stubborn inflation, moderate growth
    Autor*in: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Kooths, Stefan; Reents, Jan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    The recovery of the global economy from the Covid crisis came to an end in 2022 amid high energy prices and great uncertainty. While the energy crisis is easing, the effects of monetary policy, which was tightened rather late but then very quickly,... mehr

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    The recovery of the global economy from the Covid crisis came to an end in 2022 amid high energy prices and great uncertainty. While the energy crisis is easing, the effects of monetary policy, which was tightened rather late but then very quickly, are now increasingly weighing on growth. World output slowed to a crawl toward the end of the year and is expected to expand only moderately in the current year despite a post-Covid revival in China. Measured on a purchasing power parity basis, we anticipate global growth of 2.5 percent in 2023, following 3.2 percent last year. We have raised our forecast for 2023 by 0.4 percentage points from December, partly because of the improved situation on energy markets and partly because the economy in the United States has proved more robust than expected. Our forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at 3.2 percent. Although inflation is likely to fall significantly in the coming months thanks to lower commodity prices, underlying inflation is likely to remain high for the time being and will not return to near the target levels before the end of the forecast horizon.

     
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    hdl: 10419/271182
    Schriftenreihe: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 99 (2023/Q1)
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy
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  14. Addressing the pandemic's medium-term fallout in Australia and New Zealand
    Autor*in: Bannister, Geoffrey J.; Finger, Harald; Kido, Yosuke; Kothari, Siddharth; Loukoianova, Elena
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand... mehr

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    While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic's adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks

     
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    ISBN: 9781513563282
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/20, 272
    Schlagworte: Potential output; scarring; COVID-19; advanced economies; Australia; NewZealand; Advanced Economies; COVID-19; Potential Output; Scarring
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  15. World economy in summer 2023
    growth remains subdued
    Autor*in: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Kooths, Stefan; Reents, Jan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    A number of factors that contributed to the weakening of the global economy in the past year have recently improved significantly. Energy prices have reversed, the prospects for a steady expansion in China have improved with the abandonment of the... mehr

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    A number of factors that contributed to the weakening of the global economy in the past year have recently improved significantly. Energy prices have reversed, the prospects for a steady expansion in China have improved with the abandonment of the zero-Covid policy, and supply bottlenecks have ceased to impede economic activity to an unusual extent. All this has helped the global economy to stabilize. However, the sharp tightening of monetary policy has led to significantly higher financing costs and is weighing on growth. Fiscal policy is generally also restrictive. Against this backdrop, global growth is expected to be moderate this year and next. After growing by 3.3 percent in 2022, which is roughly in line with the medium-term trend rate, global output is expected to grow by only 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Compared to our spring forecast, we have increased the rate for 2023 by 0.3 percentage points but decreased it by 0.2 percentage points for 2024. Although inflation will fall significantly in the coming months on the back of lower commodity prices, underlying inflation is likely to remain elevated for the time being and will not return target levels before the end of the forecast horizon.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279700
    Schriftenreihe: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 103 (2023/Q2)
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy
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  16. Weltwirtschaft im Sommer 2023
    Expansion bleibt vorerst schwach
    Autor*in: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Kooths, Stefan; Reents, Jan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel

    Wichtige Rahmenbedingungen, die für die Abschwächung der Weltkonjunktur im vergangenen Jahr wesentlich verantwortlich waren, haben sich zuletzt deutlich verbessert. So sind die Energiepreise wieder gesunken, in China haben sich mit der Abkehr von der... mehr

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    Wichtige Rahmenbedingungen, die für die Abschwächung der Weltkonjunktur im vergangenen Jahr wesentlich verantwortlich waren, haben sich zuletzt deutlich verbessert. So sind die Energiepreise wieder gesunken, in China haben sich mit der Abkehr von der Null-Covid-Politik die Aussichten auf eine stetige Expansion verbessert, und Lieferengpässe behindern die wirtschaftliche Aktivität nicht mehr ungewöhnlich stark. All dies hat dazu beigetragen, dass die Weltkonjunktur wieder Tritt gefasst hat. Bremsend wirkt allerdings die scharfe Straffung der Geldpolitik, die zu deutlich höheren Finanzierungskosten geführt hat und die Ausgabeneigung bremst. Auch die Finanzpolitik ist tendenziell restriktiv ausgerichtet. So expandiert die Weltwirtschaft in diesem und im nächsten Jahr voraussichtlich moderat. Nachdem im Jahr 2022 noch ein Zuwachs der Weltproduktion um 3,3 Prozent erreicht wurde, was in etwa der mittelfristigen Trendrate entspricht, dürfte sie in den Jahren 2023 und 2024 nur um 2,8 Prozent bzw. 3,0 Prozent zulegen. Damit haben wir die Rate für das Jahr 2023 gegenüber unserer Frühjahrsprognose um 0,3 Prozentpunkte erhöht und für 2024 um 0,2 Prozentpunkte verringert. Die Inflation wird zwar in den kommenden Monaten dank der wieder niedrigeren Rohstoffpreise deutlich sinken, der zugrunde liegende Preisauftrieb dürfte aber vorerst hoch bleiben und allenfalls gegen Ende des Prognosezeitraum wieder in die Nähe der Zielmarken sinken.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279693
    Schriftenreihe: Kieler Konjunkturberichte ; Nr. 103 (2023/Q2)
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; Fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften; monetary policy; Schwellenländer
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  17. Finanzpolitik in Turbulenzen
    Gegendwind für die Erholung
    Autor*in: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stamer, Vincent
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel

    Die deutsche Wirtschaft müht sich aus der Stagnation. Im kommenden Jahr dürfte die Wirtschaftsleistung wieder zulegen. Eine große konjunkturelle Dynamik ist aber nicht absehbar. Vor allem die recht kräftigen Zuwächse des real verfügbaren Einkommens... mehr

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    Die deutsche Wirtschaft müht sich aus der Stagnation. Im kommenden Jahr dürfte die Wirtschaftsleistung wieder zulegen. Eine große konjunkturelle Dynamik ist aber nicht absehbar. Vor allem die recht kräftigen Zuwächse des real verfügbaren Einkommens werden den privaten Konsum anschieben. Die Zinswende belastet jedoch weiterhin die Baubranche und größere Impulse seitens der Weltwirtschaft lassen auf sich warten. Zudem wird die sich nach dem Bundesverfassungsgerichtsurteil zum Nachtragshaushalt 2021 abzeichnende Konsolidierung die wirtschaftliche Expansion bremsen. Bezüglich der genauen Ausgestaltung der Einsparungen besteht ebenso Unsicherheit wie über deren wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen. In der Prognose senken die zusätzlichen Einsparungen die Zuwachsrate des Bruttoinlandsprodukts um gut 0,3 Prozentpunkte im Jahr 2024. Insgesamt rechnen wir nun mit einem Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für das kommende Jahr von 0,9 Prozent und damit mit einer langsameren Gangart als in unserer Herbstprognose (1,3 Prozent). Im Jahr 2025 dürfte die Wirtschaftsleistung um 1,2 Prozent zulegen (Herbstprognose: 1,5 Prozent). Im laufenden Jahr fällt das Minus mit 0,3 Prozent etwas niedriger aus als im Herbst erwartet (-0,5 Prozent). Die Inflation ist deutlich gesunken. Für die kommenden beiden Jahre rechnen wir mit Raten von 2,3 Prozent (2024) und 1,8 Prozent (2025), nach 5,9 Prozent im laufenden Jahr. Die geringe wirtschaftliche Dynamik hinterlässt Spuren am Arbeitsmarkt. Der demographische Wandel und da-mit verbunden der Fachkräftemangel wirken dem aber entgegen. Das Finanzierungsdefizit des Staates dürfte von 2,5 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2022 auf 0,7 Prozent im Jahr 2025 zurückgehen. Der Schuldenstand wird im gleichen Zeitraum von 66,1 Prozent auf 62,4 Prozent sinken.

     
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    hdl: 10419/281069
    Schriftenreihe: Kieler Konjunkturberichte ; Nr. 110 (2023/Q4)
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; Fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften; monetary policy; Schwellenländer; Weltwirtschaft; World economy
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  18. German economy winter 2023
    public budget under stress : recovery faces headwinds
    Autor*in: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stamer, Vincent
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    The German economy is struggling to emerge from stagnation. GDP is likely to increase again in 2024, but the economic momentum will remain low. The strong growth in real disposable income will boost private consumption. However, the increases in... mehr

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    The German economy is struggling to emerge from stagnation. GDP is likely to increase again in 2024, but the economic momentum will remain low. The strong growth in real disposable income will boost private consumption. However, the increases in interest rates continue to weigh on construction investment and there are no signs of large impulses from the world economy ahead. Moreover, the fiscal consolidation because of the Federal Constitutional Court's judgement on the supplementary budget for 2021 will slow economic expansion. There is uncertainty regarding the exact structuring of the reductions in expenditure as well as their economic impact. In the forecast, the additional savings will reduce growth in GDP by around 0.3 percentage points in 2024. Overall, we now expect GDP to increase by 0.9 percent in the coming year and thus at a slower pace than in our autumn forecast (1.3 percent). In 2025, economic output is likely to increase by 1.2 percent (autumn forecast: 1.5 percent). The decline in the current year of 0.3 percent will be slightly lower than expected in the autumn (-0.5 percent). Inflation has fallen significantly. For the next two years, we expect rates of 2.3 percent (2024) and 1.8 percent (2025), after 5.9 percent in the current year. The low economic momentum is leaving its mark on the labour market. However, demographic change and the associated shortage of skilled labour are counteracting this. The government's financing deficit is expected to fall from 2.5 percent relative to GDP in 2022 to 0.7 percent in 2025. The debt level will fall from 66.1 percent to 62.4 percent in the same period.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Kiel Institute economic outlook ; Nr. 110 (2023/Q4)
    Schlagworte: advanced economies; emerging economies; Energiekrise; energy crisis; monetary policy; Weltwirtschaft
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