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  1. The global economic impact of politicians
    evidence from an international survey RCT
    Autor*in: Boumans, Dorine; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations regarding GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and trade in their country. The sample is split randomly in two subsamples. Half of the participants were surveyed closely before the election, the other half directly after Joe Biden had been called US president. Our results show that the election of Joe Biden increased growth expectations of international experts by 0.98 percentage points for the year 2021. We also find that (i) treatment effects materialize only in the short-run and (ii) experts’ uncertainty increased after the election. Our results suggest that exceptional politicians influence global economic outcomes.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232430
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8833 (2021)
    Schlagworte: US presidential elections; politicians; economic expectations; economic experts; Randomized Controlled Trial; causal inference
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations
    evidence from a global survey experiment
    Autor*in: Boumans, Dorine; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of Joe Biden's election on growth expectations of international experts, working through more positive expectations about trade. The electoral outcome particularly affected the expectations of Western allies and increased global economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest important political spillover effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266009
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9974 (2022)
    Schlagworte: US presidential elections; politicians; economic expectations; economic experts; survey experiment; causal inference
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 84 Seiten), Illustrationen