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  1. u* = √uv
    Autor*in: Michaillat, Pascal; Saez, Emmanuel
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Most governments are mandated to maintain their economies at full employment. We propose that the best marker of full employment is the efficient unemployment rate, u*. We define u* as the unemployment rate that minimizes the nonproductive use of... mehr

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    Most governments are mandated to maintain their economies at full employment. We propose that the best marker of full employment is the efficient unemployment rate, u*. We define u* as the unemployment rate that minimizes the nonproductive use of labor--both jobseeking and recruiting. The nonproductive use of labor is well measured by the number of jobseekers and vacancies, u + v. Through the Beveridge curve, the number of vacancies is inversely related to the number of jobseekers. With such symmetry, the labor market is efficient when there are as many jobseekers as vacancies (u = v), too tight when there are more vacancies than jobseekers (v > u), and too slack when there are more jobseekers than vacancies (u > v). Accordingly, the efficient unemployment rate is the geometric average of the unemployment and vacancy rates: u* = √uv. We compute u* for the United States between 1930 and 2022. We find for instance that the US labor market has been over full employment (u < u*) since May 2021

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30211
    Schlagworte: Vollbeschäftigung; Arbeitsmarkt; Arbeitslosigkeit; Arbeitsuche; Theorie; USA; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Monetary Policy; Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination; Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs; Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
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  2. Fiscal Histories
    Autor*in: Cochrane, John H.
    Erschienen: August 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of real primary surpluses. Monetary policy remains important. The central bank can set an interest rate target, which determines the... mehr

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    The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of real primary surpluses. Monetary policy remains important. The central bank can set an interest rate target, which determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the present value of surpluses drives unexpected inflation. I use fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long quiet zero bound of the 2010s, and the reemergence of inflation in 2021, as well as to analyze the gold standard, currency pegs, the ends of hyperinflations, currency crashes, and the success of inflation targets. Going forward, fiscal theory warns that inflation will have to be tamed by coordinated monetary and fiscal policy. I thank Erik Hurst, Ed Nelson, Nina Pavcnik, and Timothy Taylor for helpful comments

     
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  3. What Can Time-Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?
    Autor*in: Wolf, Christian; McKay, Alisdair
    Erschienen: August 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We show that, in a general family of linearized structural macroeconomic models, knowledge of the empirically estimable causal effects of contemporaneous and news shocks to the prevailing policy rule is sufficient to construct counterfactuals under... mehr

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    We show that, in a general family of linearized structural macroeconomic models, knowledge of the empirically estimable causal effects of contemporaneous and news shocks to the prevailing policy rule is sufficient to construct counterfactuals under alternative policy rules. If the researcher is willing to postulate a loss function, our results furthermore allow her to recover an optimal policy rule for that loss. Under our assumptions, the derived counterfactuals and optimal policies are robust to the Lucas critique. We then discuss strategies for applying these insights when only a limited amount of empirical causal evidence on policy shock transmission is available

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30358
    Schlagworte: Stabilisierungspolitik; Policy-Mix; Kausalanalyse; Regressionsanalyse; Zeitreihenanalyse; Neue klassische Makroökonomik; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
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  4. Welfare Assessments with Heterogeneous Individuals
    Autor*in: Dávila, Eduardo; Schaab, Andreas
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper develops a new approach to make welfare assessments based on the notion of Dynamic Stochastic weights (DS-weights for short). For a large class of dynamic stochastic economies with heterogeneous individuals, we introduce an aggregate... mehr

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    This paper develops a new approach to make welfare assessments based on the notion of Dynamic Stochastic weights (DS-weights for short). For a large class of dynamic stochastic economies with heterogeneous individuals, we introduce an aggregate additive decomposition that satisfies desirable properties and that allows us to exactly decompose welfare assessments into four components: i) aggregate efficiency, ii) risk-sharing, iii) intertemporal-sharing, and iv) redistribution. We leverage DS-weights to i) revisit how welfarist (e.g., utilitarian) planners make interpersonal welfare comparisons and ii) formalize new welfare criteria that are exclusively based on one or several of the components that we identify

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30571
    Schlagworte: Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Theorie; General; Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
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  5. Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps
    Autor*in: Amador, Manuel; Bianchi, Javier
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We show that if the central bank operates without commitment and faces constraints on its balance sheet, helicopter drops can be a useful stabilization tool during a liquidity trap. With commitment, even with balance sheet constraints, helicopter... mehr

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    We show that if the central bank operates without commitment and faces constraints on its balance sheet, helicopter drops can be a useful stabilization tool during a liquidity trap. With commitment, even with balance sheet constraints, helicopter drops are irrelevant

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31046
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Liquiditätspräferenz; Liquidität; Theorie; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Monetary Policy; Central Banks and Their Policies; Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination; Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
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  6. Optimal Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents
    Discretion, Commitment, and Timeless Policy
    Autor*in: Dávila, Eduardo; Schaab, Andreas
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper characterizes optimal monetary policy in a canonical heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with wage rigidity. Under discretion, a utilitarian planner faces the incentive to redistribute towards indebted, high marginal utility... mehr

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    This paper characterizes optimal monetary policy in a canonical heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with wage rigidity. Under discretion, a utilitarian planner faces the incentive to redistribute towards indebted, high marginal utility households, which is a new source of inflationary bias. With commitment, i) zero inflation is the optimal long-run policy, ii) time-consistent policy requires both inflation and distributional penalties, and iii) the planner trades off aggregate stabilization against distributional considerations, so Divine Coincidence fails. We compute optimal stabilization policy in response to productivity, demand, and cost-push shocks using sequence-space methods, which we extend to Ramsey problems and welfare analysis

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30961
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Regelbindung versus Diskretion; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Neoklassische Synthese; Monetary Policy; Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
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  7. A Simple Model of a Central Bank Digital Currency
    Autor*in: Mishra, Bineet; Prasad, Eswar S.
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We develop a general equilibrium model that highlights the trade-offs between physical and digital forms of retail central bank money. The key differences between cash and central bank digital currency (CBDC) include transaction efficiency,... mehr

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    We develop a general equilibrium model that highlights the trade-offs between physical and digital forms of retail central bank money. The key differences between cash and central bank digital currency (CBDC) include transaction efficiency, possibilities for tax evasion, and, potentially, nominal rates of return. We establish conditions under which cash and CBDC can co-exist and show how government policies can influence relative holdings of cash, CBDC, and other assets. We illustrate how a CBDC can facilitate negative nominal interest rates and helicopter drops, and also how a CBDC can be structured to prevent capital flight from other assets

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31198
    Schlagworte: Geld; Elektronisches Geld; Zentralbank; Virtuelle Währung; Geldpolitik; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht; Money and Interest Rates; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit; Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
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  8. Monetary Policy without Commitment
    Autor*in: Afrouzi, Hassan; Halac, Marina; Rogoff, Kenneth S.; Yared, Pierre
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper studies the implications of central bank credibility for long-run inflation and inflation dynamics. We introduce central bank lack of commitment into a standard non-linear New Keynesian economy with sticky-price monopolistically... mehr

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    This paper studies the implications of central bank credibility for long-run inflation and inflation dynamics. We introduce central bank lack of commitment into a standard non-linear New Keynesian economy with sticky-price monopolistically competitive firms. Inflation is driven by the interaction of lack of commitment and the economic environment. We show that long-run inflation increases following an unanticipated permanent increase in the labor wedge or decrease in the elasticity of substitution across varieties. In the transition, inflation overshoots and then gradually declines. Quantitatively, the inflation response is large, as is the welfare loss from lack of commitment relative to inflation targeting

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31207
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Glaubwürdigkeit; Inflation; Neoklassische Synthese; Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact; Institutions and the Macroeconomy; Monetary Policy; Central Banks and Their Policies; Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
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  9. Welfare Accounting
    Autor*in: Dávila, Eduardo; Schaab, Andreas
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper develops a welfare accounting decomposition that identifies and quantifies the ultimate origins of welfare gains and losses in general economies with heterogeneous individuals and disaggregated production. The decomposition---exclusively... mehr

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    This paper develops a welfare accounting decomposition that identifies and quantifies the ultimate origins of welfare gains and losses in general economies with heterogeneous individuals and disaggregated production. The decomposition---exclusively based on preferences and technologies---first separates efficiency from redistribution considerations. Efficiency comprises individual efficiency, which traces gains and losses to reallocating consumption and factor supply across individuals, and production efficiency, which captures allocative efficiency gains and losses due to adjusting intermediate inputs and factors, as well as technical efficiency gains and losses from primitive changes in technologies and factor endowments. Leveraging the decomposition, we characterize efficiency conditions in disaggregated production economies with heterogeneous individuals, extending classic efficiency results. In competitive economies, prices (and wedges) are directly informative about the welfare-relevant statistics that shape the welfare accounting decomposition, which allows us to characterize a generalized Hulten's theorem. We present several minimal examples and a rich application to monetary policy

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31717
    Schlagworte: Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Wohlfahrtsökonomik; General; Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
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  10. Fiscal Federalism and Monetary Unions
    Autor*in: Berriel, Rafael; Gonzalez-Aguado, Eugenia; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Pastorino, Elena
    Erschienen: December 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We apply ideas from fiscal federalism to reassess how fiscal authority should be delegated within a monetary union. In a real-economy model with no fiscal externalities, in which local fiscal authorities have an informational advantage about the... mehr

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    We apply ideas from fiscal federalism to reassess how fiscal authority should be delegated within a monetary union. In a real-economy model with no fiscal externalities, in which local fiscal authorities have an informational advantage about the preferences of their citizens for public spending relative to a fiscal union, a natural generalization of the classic decentralization result by Oates (1972) applies. Namely, a decentralized fiscal regime dominates a fiscal union, and the degree of dominance increases as the information of the fiscal union worsens in quality. In the presence of direct fiscal externalities across countries, however, a decentralized regime is optimal for small federations of countries, whereas a centralized regime is optimal for large ones. We then consider a monetary-economy model, in which governments finance their expenditures with nominal debt and inflation has a negative impact on aggregate productivity. If the monetary authority can commit to an inflation policy, then a version of Oates (1972)'s decentralization result holds. By contrast, when the monetary authority lacks commitment power, the resulting time-inconsistency problem generates an indirect endogenous fiscal externality. In this case, when a country-level fiscal authority chooses a higher level of nominal debt, it induces the monetary authority to inflate more to reduce the level of distortionary taxes needed to finance the higher debt. Because country-level fiscal authorities do not take into account the costs to other countries of the inflation that their fiscal policies induce, a negative fiscal externality arises. This externality naturally becomes more severe as the number of countries in the monetary union increases. Hence, as in the real-economy model, a decentralized fiscal regime is optimal for small monetary unions, whereas a fiscal union is optimal for sufficiently large ones. Our key result is that as the size of a monetary union increases, it becomes relatively more desirable to centralize fiscal authority. We conclude by discussing the implications of our results for the debate on the integration of fiscal policy within the EU and its enlargement

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31953
    Schlagworte: Währungsunion; Finanzbeziehungen; Finanzpolitik; Theorie; Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination; Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy; International Lending and Debt Problems; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
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