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  1. Do people choose what makes them happy and how do they decide at all?
    a theoretical inquiry
    Autor*in: Scheuer, Niklas
    Erschienen: January 31, 2020
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    We develop a theoretical model that jointly explains optimal choices and happiness. We work with constant elasticity of substitution functions for utility and happiness. Employing a choice framework, individuals are confronted with two options. When... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DSM 13
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    We develop a theoretical model that jointly explains optimal choices and happiness. We work with constant elasticity of substitution functions for utility and happiness. Employing a choice framework, individuals are confronted with two options. When there exists a trade-off, we determine parametric conditions for which individual happiness and utility coincide as well as oppose each other. Comparing the empirical evidence of Benjamin et al. (2012), our model can explain three out of four possible happiness-utility combinations. Regarding how individuals actually decide, our findings suggest that this is partly random. This explanation accounts for the remaining 11.2 % of individuals.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/224517
    Schriftenreihe: Jahrestagung 2020 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 32
    Schlagworte: Consumer Economics; Theory; General Welfare; Well-Being; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms
    Measurement, Determinants, and Implications
    Autor*in: Weber, Michael; D'Acunto, Francesco; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how they shape households' and firms' economic choices in the data and help us make sense of the observed heterogeneous reactions to business-cycle shocks and policy interventions. We conclude by highlighting the relevant open questions and why tackling them is important for academic research and policy making

     
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  3. Gender Differences in Response to Competitive Organization? Differences Across Fields from a Product Development Platform Field Experiment
    Autor*in: Boudreau, Kevin; Kaushik, Nilam
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Prior research, primarily based on lab experiments, suggests that females might be more averse to competition than males and could be more inclined towards collaboration, instead. Were these findings to generalize to adults across the workforce,... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Prior research, primarily based on lab experiments, suggests that females might be more averse to competition than males and could be more inclined towards collaboration, instead. Were these findings to generalize to adults across the workforce, there could be profound implications for organizational design and personnel management. We report on a field experiment in which 97,678 adults from a wide range of fields and ages were invited to join a product development opportunity. Individuals were randomly assigned to treatments framing the opportunity as either involving competitive or collaborative interactions with other participants. Among those outside of science, technology, engineering, and math fields (STEM), we find significant gender differences in willingness to participate under competition. Among those in STEM fields, we detect no statistical gender differences. These results and broader patterns documented in the study are consistent with significant heterogeneity in competitiveness across both men and women, with field and career sorting resulting in differences (in gender differences) across fields

     
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  4. The Endowment Effect and Collateralized Loans
    Autor*in: Carney, Kevin; Kremer, Michael; Lin, Xinyue; Rao, Gautam
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Collateral requirements play an important role in credit markets. This paper shows that the endowment effect--the phenomenon where owing a good increases one's valuation of it--inhibits demand for loans which use a borrower's existing assets as... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Collateral requirements play an important role in credit markets. This paper shows that the endowment effect--the phenomenon where owing a good increases one's valuation of it--inhibits demand for loans which use a borrower's existing assets as collateral. Using a field experiment in Kenya, we show that borrowers instead strongly prefer loans collateralized using the new durable assets being financed by the loans themselves. They are willing to pay 9% per month higher interest for such Same-Asset Collateralized Loans (SACLs) despite the endowed and new assets being randomized, and thus similarly valued before ownership. Our findings imply that assets which are difficult to use as collateral--which cannot be financed by SACLs--will be invested in less, even if the borrower has other collateral. We argue that borrowers' preference for SACLs is driven by naivete: they initially perceive that they have little to lose when offered a SACL, but subsequently come to develop an attachment to the new asset, resulting in high repayment effort. Consistent with this, borrowers underestimate their future attachment to an asset before owning it, and SACLs do not have higher default rates despite having higher demand. We derive the conditions under which offering consumers SACLs increases or conversely decreases borrower welfare

     
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  5. Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Towards Losses in a Representative Sample
    Autor*in: Chapman, Jonathan; Snowberg, Erik; Wang, Stephanie; Camerer, Colin
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We measure individual-level loss aversion using three incentivized, representative surveys of the U.S. population (combined N=3,000). We find that around 50% of the U.S. population is loss tolerant, with many participants accepting... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We measure individual-level loss aversion using three incentivized, representative surveys of the U.S. population (combined N=3,000). We find that around 50% of the U.S. population is loss tolerant, with many participants accepting negative-expected-value gambles. This is counter to earlier findings--which mostly come from lab/student samples--and expert predictions that 70-90% of participants are loss averse. Consistent with the difference between our study and the prior literature, loss aversion is more prevalent in people with high cognitive ability. Loss-tolerant individuals are more likely to report recent gambling and to have experienced financial shocks. These results support the general hypothesis that individuals value gains and losses differently, although the tendency in a large proportion of the population to emphasize gains over losses is an overlooked behavioral phenomenon

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30243
    Schlagworte: Entscheidung unter Risiko; Risikoaversion; Versuchsplanung; Stichprobenerhebung; Prospect Theory; Verhaltensökonomik; USA; Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access; Design of Experiments; Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles; Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  6. Bottlenecks for Evidence Adoption
    Autor*in: Della Vigna, Stefano; Kim, Woojin; Linos, Elizabeth
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Governments increasingly use RCTs to test innovations before scale up. Yet, we know little about whether and how they incorporate the results of the experiments into policy-making. We follow up with 67 U.S. city departments which collectively ran 73... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
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    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Governments increasingly use RCTs to test innovations before scale up. Yet, we know little about whether and how they incorporate the results of the experiments into policy-making. We follow up with 67 U.S. city departments which collectively ran 73 RCTs in collaboration with a national Nudge Unit. Compared to most contexts, the barriers to adoption are low. Yet, city departments adopt a nudge treatment in follow-on communication in 27% of cases. As potential determinants of adoption we consider (i) the strength of the evidence, as determined by the RCT itself, (ii) features of the organization, such as "organizational capacity" of the city and whether the city staff member working on the RCT has been retained, and (iii) the experimental design, such as whether the RCT was implemented as part of pre-existing communication. We find (i) a limited impact of strength of the evidence and (ii) some impact of city features, especially the retention of the original staff member. By far, the largest predictor of adoption is (iii) whether the communication was pre-existing, as opposed to a new communication. We consider two main interpretations of this finding: organizational inertia, in that changes to pre-existing communications are more naturally folded into year-to-year city processes, and costs, since new communications may require additional funding. We find the same pattern for electronic communications, with zero marginal costs, supporting the organizational inertia explanation. The pattern of results differs from the predictions of both experts and practitioners, who over-estimate the extent of evidence-based adoption. Our results underline the importance of considering the barriers to evidence adoption, beginning at the stage of experimental design and continuing after the RCT completion

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30144
    Schlagworte: Politische Entscheidung; Politikberatung; Randomisierte kontrollierte Studie; Stadt; USA; Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Structure and Scope of Government; General
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  7. Superiority-Seeking and the Preference for Exclusion
    Autor*in: Imas, Alex; Madarász, Kristóf
    Erschienen: August 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We propose that a person's desire to consume an object or possess an attribute increases in how much others want but cannot have it. We term this motive superiority-seeking, and show that it generates preferences for exclusion that help explain a... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We propose that a person's desire to consume an object or possess an attribute increases in how much others want but cannot have it. We term this motive superiority-seeking, and show that it generates preferences for exclusion that help explain a host of market anomalies and make novel predictions in a variety of domains. In bilateral exchange, there is a reluctance to trade and people exhibit a 'social endowment effect.' People's value of consuming a good increases in its scarcity, which generates a motive for firms and organizations to cater to such preferences by engaging in exclusionary policies. Randomly barring potential consumers from the opportunity to acquire a product increases the seller's profits both in standard monopoly and auction settings. Such non-price-based exclusion leads to higher revenues than the classic optimal sales mechanisms. A series of experiments provides direct support for these predictions. In basic exchange, a person's willingness to pay for a good increases as more people are explicitly barred from the opportunity to acquire it. In auctions, randomly excluding people from the opportunity to bid substantially increases bids amongst those who retain this option. Exclusion leads to bigger gains in expected revenue than increasing competition through inclusion. Our model of superiority-seeking generates 'Veblen effects,' rationalizes attitudes against redistribution, and provides a novel motive for social stratification and discrimination

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30334
    Schlagworte: Konsumentenpräferenzen; Präferenztheorie; Verhaltensökonomik; Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles; Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact; Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles; Rationing; Licensing; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  8. Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics
    Autor*in: Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Shleifer, Andrei
    Erschienen: August 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges posed by the rational expectations revolution, most importantly the idea that economic agents are forward-looking. Second, belief overreaction can account for many long-standing empirical puzzles in macro and finance, which emphasize the extreme volatility and boom-bust dynamics of key time series, such as stock prices, credit, and investment. Third, overreaction relies on psychology and is disciplined by survey data on expectations. This suggests that relaxing the assumption of rational expectations is a promising strategy, helps theory and evidence go together, and offers a unified view of a great deal of data

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30356
    Schlagworte: Rationale Erwartung; Volatilität; Börsenkurs; Finanzmarkt; Verhaltensökonomik; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Behavioral Macroeconomics; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  9. Material Incentives and Effort Choice
    Evidence from an Online Experiment Across Countries
    Autor*in: Davies, Elwyn; Fafchamps, Marcel
    Erschienen: August 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We conduct an interactive online experiment framed as an employment contract between employer and worker. Subjects from the US, India, and Africa are matched in pairs within and, in some cases, across countries. Employers make a one-period offer to a... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We conduct an interactive online experiment framed as an employment contract between employer and worker. Subjects from the US, India, and Africa are matched in pairs within and, in some cases, across countries. Employers make a one-period offer to a worker who can either decline or choose a high or low effort. The offer is restricted to be from a variable set of possible contracts: high and low fixed wage; bonus and malus contracts; and bonus and malus with reneging. High effort is always efficient. Self-interest predicts a fraction of observed choices, but many choices are better explained either by conditional reciprocity or by intrinsic motivation. Subjects from India and Africa are more likely to follow intrinsic motivation and they provide high effort more often. US subjects are more likely to follow self-interest and reach a less efficient outcome on average, but workers earn slightly more. We find no evidence that workers favor employers from some countries or that employers treat workers from different countries differently. Individual characteristics and stated attitudes toward worker incentives are unable to predict the behavioral differences observed between countries, thus allowing the possible existence of cultural differences in the response to labor incentives

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30372
    Schlagworte: Leistungsanreiz; Experiment; Arbeitsangebot; Arbeitsvertrag; Leistungsmotivation; Soziale Werte; Vergleich; Indien; USA; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials; Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; Comparative Studies of Countries
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  10. Not Learning from Others
    Autor*in: Conlon, John; Mani, Malavika; Rao, Gautam; Ridley, Matthew; Schilbach, Frank
    Erschienen: August 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We provide evidence of a powerful barrier to social learning: people are much less sensitive to information others discover compared to equally-relevant information they discover themselves. In a series of incentivized lab experiments, we ask... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We provide evidence of a powerful barrier to social learning: people are much less sensitive to information others discover compared to equally-relevant information they discover themselves. In a series of incentivized lab experiments, we ask participants to guess the color composition of balls in an urn after drawing balls with replacement. Participants' guesses are substantially less sensitive to draws made by another player compared to draws made themselves. This result holds when others' signals must be learned through discussion, when they are perfectly communicated by the experimenter, and even when participants see their teammate drawing balls from the urn with their own eyes. We find a crucial role for taking some action to generate one's `own' information, and rule out distrust, confusion, errors in probabilistic thinking, up-front inattention and imperfect recall as channels

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30378
    Schlagworte: Lernprozess; Verhalten; Experiment; Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
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  11. How to Run Surveys
    A Guide to Creating Your Own Identifying Variation and Revealing the Invisible
    Autor*in: Stantcheva, Stefanie
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Surveys are an essential approach for eliciting otherwise invisible factors such as perceptions, knowledge and beliefs, attitudes, and reasoning. These factors are critical determinants of social, economic, and political outcomes. Surveys are not... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Surveys are an essential approach for eliciting otherwise invisible factors such as perceptions, knowledge and beliefs, attitudes, and reasoning. These factors are critical determinants of social, economic, and political outcomes. Surveys are not merely a research tool. They are also not only a way of collecting data. Instead, they involve creating the process that will generate the data. This allows the researcher to create their own identifying and controlled variation. Thanks to the rise of mobile technologies and platforms, surveys offer valuable opportunities to study either broadly representative samples or focus on specific groups. This paper offers guidance on the complete survey process, from the design of the questions and experiments to the recruitment of respondents and the collection of data to the analysis of survey responses. It covers issues related to the sampling process, selection and attrition, attention and carelessness, survey question design and measurement, response biases, and survey experiments

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30527
    Schlagworte: Erhebungstechnik; Methodologie; Aktionsforschung; Datenerhebung; Feldforschung; Verhaltensökonomik; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; General; General; General
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  12. Blue Spoons
    Sparking Communication About Appropriate Technology Use
    Autor*in: Chandrasekhar, Arun G.; Duflo, Esther; Kremer, Michael; Pugliese, João F.; Robinson, Jonathan; Schilbach, Frank
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    An enduring puzzle regarding technology adoption in developing countries is that new technologies often diffuse slowly through the social network. Two of the key predictions of the canonical epidemiological model of technology diffusion are that... mehr

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    An enduring puzzle regarding technology adoption in developing countries is that new technologies often diffuse slowly through the social network. Two of the key predictions of the canonical epidemiological model of technology diffusion are that forums to share information and higher returns to technology should both spur social transmission. We design a large-scale experiment to test these predictions among farmers in Western Kenya, and we fail to find support for either. However, in the same context, we introduce a technology that diffuses very fast: a simple kitchen spoon (painted in blue) to measure out how much fertilizer to use. We develop a model that explains both the failure of the standard approaches and the surprising success of this new technology. The core idea of the model is that not all information is reliable, and farmers are reluctant to develop a reputation of passing along false information. The model and data suggest that there is value in developing simple, transparent technologies to facilitate communication

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30423
    Schlagworte: Innovationsdiffusion; Landwirte; Kommunikation; Soziales Verhalten; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products; General
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  13. The Impact of Joint versus Separate Prediction Mode on Forecasting Accuracy
    Autor*in: Imas, Alex; Jung, Minah H.; Saccardo, Silvia; Vosgerau, Joachim
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Forecasters predicting how people change their behavior in response to a treatment or intervention often consider a set of alternatives. In contrast, those who are treated are typically exposed to only one of the treatment alternatives. For example,... mehr

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    Forecasters predicting how people change their behavior in response to a treatment or intervention often consider a set of alternatives. In contrast, those who are treated are typically exposed to only one of the treatment alternatives. For example, managers selecting a wage schedule consider a set of alternative wages while employees are hired at a given rate. We show that forecasts made in joint-prediction mode--which considers a set of alternatives--generate predictions that expect substantially larger behavioral responses than those made in separate-prediction mode--which considers the response to only one treatment realization in isolation. Results show the latter to be more accurate in matching people's actual responses to interventions and treatment changes. We present applications to managerial decision-making and forecasting of scientific results

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30611
    Schlagworte: Führungskräfte; Prognoseverfahren; Kausalanalyse; Verhaltensökonomik; General; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; General
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  14. An Approach to Testing Reference Points
    Autor*in: Rees-Jones, Alex; Wang, Ao
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We present a general approach to experimentally testing candidate reference points. This approach builds from Prospect Theory's prediction that an increase in payoffs is perfectly offset by an equivalent increase in the reference point. Violation of... mehr

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    We present a general approach to experimentally testing candidate reference points. This approach builds from Prospect Theory's prediction that an increase in payoffs is perfectly offset by an equivalent increase in the reference point. Violation of this prediction can be tested with modifications to existing econometric techniques in experiments of a particular design. The resulting approach to testing theories of the reference point is minimally parametric, robust to broad classes of heterogeneity, yet still implementable in comparatively small sample sizes. We demonstrate the application of this approach in an experiment that tests the role of salience in setting reference points

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30773
    Schlagworte: Verhaltensökonomik; Prospect Theory; Verhaltensökonomik; Prospect Theory; Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
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  15. Shared Models in Networks, Organizations, and Groups
    Autor*in: Schwartzstein, Joshua; Sunderam, Adi
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    To understand new information, we exchange models or interpretations with others. This paper provides a framework for thinking about such social exchanges of models. The key assumption is that people adopt the interpretation in their network that... mehr

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    To understand new information, we exchange models or interpretations with others. This paper provides a framework for thinking about such social exchanges of models. The key assumption is that people adopt the interpretation in their network that best explains the data, given their prior beliefs. An implication is that interpretations evolve within a network. For many network structures, social learning mutes reactions to data: the exchange of models leaves beliefs closer to priors than they were before. Our results shed light on why disagreements persist as new information arrives, as well as the goal and structure of meetings in organizations

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30642
    Schlagworte: Soziales Netzwerk; Meinung; Informationsverhalten; Verhaltensökonomik; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness; Network Formation and Analysis: Theory; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; General
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  16. Identifying Preference for Early Resolution from Asset Prices
    Autor*in: Ai, Hengjie; Bansal, Ravi; Guo, Hongye; Yaron, Amir
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper develops an asset market based test for preference for the timing of resolution of uncertainty. Our main theorem provides a characterization of preference for early resolution of uncertainty in terms of the risk premium of assets realized... mehr

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    This paper develops an asset market based test for preference for the timing of resolution of uncertainty. Our main theorem provides a characterization of preference for early resolution of uncertainty in terms of the risk premium of assets realized during the period when the informativeness of macroeconomic announcements is resolved. Empirically, we find support for preference for early resolution of uncertainty based on evidence on the dynamics of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options before FOMC announcements

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31087
    Schlagworte: Anlageverhalten; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Präferenztheorie; General; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making; General
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  17. Behavioral Economics in Education Market Design
    A Forward-Looking Review
    Autor*in: Rees-Jones, Alex; Shorrer, Ran
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The rational-choice framework for modeling matching markets has been tremendously useful in guiding the design of school-assignment systems. Despite this success, a large body of work documents deviations from the predictions of this framework that... mehr

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    The rational-choice framework for modeling matching markets has been tremendously useful in guiding the design of school-assignment systems. Despite this success, a large body of work documents deviations from the predictions of this framework that appear influenced by behavioral-economic phenomena. We review these findings and the body of behavioral theories that have been presented as possible explanations. Motivated by this literature, we lay out paths for behavioral economists to be directly useful to education market design

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30973
    Schlagworte: Verhaltensökonomik; Bildungsverhalten; Präferenztheorie; Market Design; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
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  18. The Beta-Delta-DELTA Sweet Spot
    Autor*in: Laibson, David I.; Maxted, Peter
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    When solving discrete-time consumption models with present-biased time preferences, backwards induction generates equilibria that are non-robust in the sense that policy functions are often sensitive to parameter choices, including the modeler's... mehr

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    When solving discrete-time consumption models with present-biased time preferences, backwards induction generates equilibria that are non-robust in the sense that policy functions are often sensitive to parameter choices, including the modeler's choice of the time-step. The current paper identifies a range of "sweet-spot" time-steps that (i) contains the psychologically relevant present bias horizons, and, (ii) generates numerically indistinguishable (i.e., robust) policy functions. This sweet spot includes both a computationally feasible range of discrete-time cases and the limiting continuous-time case (Harris and Laibson, 2013). Accordingly, researchers modeling present bias in buffer stock models can choose either discrete-time cases calibrated to be in the sweet spot or the analytically tractable continuous-time case; these approaches yield essentially identical policy functions

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30822
    Schlagworte: Zeitkonsistenz; Privater Haushalt; Verhaltensökonomik; Zeitkonsistenz; Intertemporale Entscheidung; Verhaltensökonomik; Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling; Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Other; Behavioral Macroeconomics; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Macro-Based Behavioral Economics; Household Saving, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
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  19. Biased Memory and Perceptions of Self-Control
    Autor*in: Sial, Afras Y.; Sydnor, Justin R.; Taubinsky, Dmitry
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Using data from a field experiment on exercise, we analyze the relationship between imperfect memory and people's awareness of their limited self-control. We find that people overestimate past gym attendance, and that larger overestimation of past... mehr

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    Using data from a field experiment on exercise, we analyze the relationship between imperfect memory and people's awareness of their limited self-control. We find that people overestimate past gym attendance, and that larger overestimation of past attendance is associated with (i) more overestimation of future attendance, (ii) a lower willingness to pay to motivate higher future gym attendance, and (iii) a smaller gap between goal and forecasted attendance. We organize these facts with a structural model of quasi-hyperbolic discounting and naivete, estimating that people with more biased memories are more naive about their time inconsistency, but not more time-inconsistent

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30825
    Schlagworte: Konsumentenverhalten; Persönlichkeitspsychologie; Wahrnehmung; Sport; Experiment; Verhaltensökonomik; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Health Behavior
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  20. The Economics of Financial Stress
    Autor*in: Sergeyev, Dmitriy; Lian, Chen; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study the psychological costs of financial constraints and their economic consequences. Using a representative survey of U.S. households, we document the prevalence of financial stress in U.S. households and a strong relationship between financial... mehr

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    We study the psychological costs of financial constraints and their economic consequences. Using a representative survey of U.S. households, we document the prevalence of financial stress in U.S. households and a strong relationship between financial stress and measures of financial constraints. We incorporate financial stress into an otherwise standard dynamic model of consumption and labor supply. We emphasize two key results. First, a psychology-based theory of poverty traps requires two equally important components: financial stress itself and naivete about financial stress. Specifically, sophisticates save enough to escape high-stress states, because they understand that doing so alleviates the economic consequences of financial stress. On the other hand, naifs dis-save, fall into a poverty trap, and incur high welfare losses. Second, the financial stress channel can reverse the counterfactual negative wealth effect on labor supply because relieving stress frees up cognitive resources for productive work. Financial stress also has macroeconomic implications on wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31285
    Schlagworte: Privater Haushalt; Haushaltseinkommen; Armut; Stress; Verhaltensökonomik; USA; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Macro-Based Behavioral Economics; Economic Development
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  21. From Happiness Data to Economic Conclusions
    Autor*in: Benjamin, Daniel J.; Cooper, Kristen B; Heffetz, Ori; Kimball, Miles S.
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Happiness data--survey respondents' self-reported well-being (SWB)--have become increasingly common in economics research, with recent calls to use them in policymaking. Researchers have used SWB data in novel ways, for example to learn about welfare... mehr

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    Happiness data--survey respondents' self-reported well-being (SWB)--have become increasingly common in economics research, with recent calls to use them in policymaking. Researchers have used SWB data in novel ways, for example to learn about welfare or preferences when choice data are unavailable or difficult to interpret. Focusing on leading examples of this pioneering research, the first part of this review uses a simple theoretical framework to reverse-engineer some of the crucial assumptions that underlie existing applications. The second part discusses evidence bearing on these assumptions and provides practical advice to the agencies and institutions that generate SWB data, the researchers who use them, and the policymakers who may use the resulting research. While we advocate creative uses of SWB data in economics, we caution that their use in policy will likely require both additional data collection and further research to better understand the data

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31727
    Schlagworte: Lebensqualität; Zufriedenheit; Methodologie; Verhaltensökonomik; General; Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; General Welfare, Well-Being
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  22. A Cognitive Foundation for Perceiving Uncertainty
    Autor*in: Bohren, J. Aislinn; Hascher, Josh; Imas, Alex; Ungeheuer, Michael; Weber, Martin
    Erschienen: February 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We propose a framework where perceptions of uncertainty are driven by the interaction between cognitive constraints and the way that people learn about it--whether information is presented sequentially or simultaneously. People can learn about... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We propose a framework where perceptions of uncertainty are driven by the interaction between cognitive constraints and the way that people learn about it--whether information is presented sequentially or simultaneously. People can learn about uncertainty by observing the distribution of outcomes all at once (e.g., seeing a stock return distribution) or sampling outcomes from the relevant distribution sequentially (e.g., experiencing a series of stock returns). Limited attention leads to the overweighting of unlikely but salient events--the dominant force when learning from simultaneous information--whereas imperfect recall leads to the underweighting of such events--the dominant force when learning sequentially. A series of studies show that, when learning from simultaneous information, people are overoptimistic about and are attracted to assets that mostly underperform, but sporadically exhibit large outperformance. However, they overwhelmingly select more consistently outperforming assets when learning the same information sequentially, and this is reflected in beliefs. The entire 40-percentage point preference reversal appears to be driven by limited attention and memory; manipulating these factors completely eliminates the effect of the learning environment on choices and beliefs, and can even reverse it

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32149
    Schlagworte: Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Kognition; Anlageverhalten; Theorie; Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles; Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making; General
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  23. The Economics of Information in a World of Disinformation
    A Survey Part 1
    Autor*in: Stiglitz, Joseph E.; Kosenko, Andrew
    Erschienen: January 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We survey aspects of the intellectual development of the economics of information from the 1970s to today. We focus here on models where information is communicated indirectly through actions. Basic results, such as the failure of the fundamental... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We survey aspects of the intellectual development of the economics of information from the 1970s to today. We focus here on models where information is communicated indirectly through actions. Basic results, such as the failure of the fundamental theorems of welfare economics, the non-existence of competitive equilibrium, and the dependence of the nature of the equilibrium, when it exists, on both what information is available, and how information can be acquired, have been shown to be robust. Markets create asymmetries of information, even when initially none existed. While the earliest literature paid scarce attention to misinformation, subsequently it has been shown that governments can improve welfare, if disinformation is present, through fraud laws and disclosure requirements. Moreover, robust mechanism design enables agents and governments to better achieve their objectives, taking into account information asymmetries. On the other hand, market reforms that ignored their informational consequences may have lowered welfare. Surveying both theory and applications, we review the main insights of these literatures, and highlight key messages using nontechnical language

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32049
    Schlagworte: Informationsökonomik; Theorie; Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design; Economics of Contract: Theory; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
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  24. The Economics of Information in a World of Disinformation
    A Survey Part 2
    Autor*in: Stiglitz, Joseph E.; Kosenko, Andrew
    Erschienen: January 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The paper surveys the recent work on economics of information with endogenous information structures where individuals can directly communicate information with each other. We consider the theoretical work on cheap talk, Bayesian persuasion, and... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    The paper surveys the recent work on economics of information with endogenous information structures where individuals can directly communicate information with each other. We consider the theoretical work on cheap talk, Bayesian persuasion, and information design, and review the implications of information control and information abundance for mis and disinformation. The relationship between information and market power is particularly important when social media can amplify and maintain harmful fictions that lead to polarization and undermine not only markets, but democratic discourse. We review both the "rational" decision-making paradigm, as well as departures from it, such as cases where decision makers can choose what to know, can allocate their attention in different ways or have behavioral biases that influence their information processing. We note some important connections to legal and media studies and highlight key messages in nontechnical language

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32050
    Schlagworte: Informationsökonomik; Theorie; Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design; Economics of Contract: Theory; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
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  25. Beliefs that Entertain
    Autor*in: Gandhi, Ashvin; Giuliano, Paola; Guan, Eric; Keefer, Quinn Andrew Wesley; McDonald, Chase; Pagel, Michaela; Tasoff, Joshua
    Erschienen: April 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Economic research on entertainment is scant despite its large share of time use. We test economic theories of belief-based utility in the context of video-game engagement. Using data on 2.8 million matches from League of Legends, we find evidence... mehr

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Economic research on entertainment is scant despite its large share of time use. We test economic theories of belief-based utility in the context of video-game engagement. Using data on 2.8 million matches from League of Legends, we find evidence supporting reference-dependent preferences, loss aversion, preferences for surprise and suspense, preferences for clumped surprise, and flow theory from psychology. We then leverage our estimated model and an evolutionary algorithm to find the information-revealing process that maximizes player engagement. We find that the optimal version of the game has increased game play equivalent to 43% of the winner-loser gap

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32295
    Schlagworte: Computerspiel; Konsumentenverhalten; Erwartungsbildung; Freizeitökonomie; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
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