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  1. Optimal surplus-dependent reinsurance under regime-switching in a Brownian risk model
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Center for Mathematical Economics (IMW), Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany

    In this paper, we consider a company that wishes to determine the optimal reinsurance strategy minimising the total expected discounted amount of capital injections needed to prevent the ruin. The company's surplus process is assumed to follow a... mehr

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    In this paper, we consider a company that wishes to determine the optimal reinsurance strategy minimising the total expected discounted amount of capital injections needed to prevent the ruin. The company's surplus process is assumed to follow a Brownian motion with drift, and the reinsurance price is modelled by a continuoustime Markov chain with two states. The presence of regime-switching complicates substantially the optimal reinsurance problem, as the surplus-independent strategies turn out to be suboptimal. We develop a recursive approach that allows to represent a solution to the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and the corresponding reinsurance strategy as the unique limits of the sequence of solutions to ordinary differential equations and their first and second order derivatives. Via Ito's formula we prove the constructed function to be the value function. Two examples illustrate the recursive procedure along with a numerical approach yielding the direct solution to the HJB equation.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/238126
    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Center for Mathematical Economics ; 648 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: Reinsurance; Regime-switching; Brownian motion; Markov chain; Optimal control; HJB equation; Ordinary differential equations; Boundary value problem
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The threshold model with anticonformity under random sequential updating
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne, Paris

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    Schriftenreihe: Documents de travail du Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne ; 2022, 04
    Schlagworte: opinion dynamics; threshold model; anticonformity; mean-field approximation; Markov chain
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 12 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The downward spiral
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, we construct a model where individuals, with and without pain, choose whether to misuse opioids knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying.... mehr

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    There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, we construct a model where individuals, with and without pain, choose whether to misuse opioids knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of opioid use. Markov chains are estimated from the US data for the college and non-college educated that summarize the transitions into and out of opioid addiction as well as to a deadly overdose. We construct a structural model that matches the estimated Markov chains. We also examine the epidemic's drivers and the impact of medical interventions.

     

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    hdl: 10419/270447
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2022, 4 (February 2022)
    Schlagworte: addiction; college/non-college educated; deaths; fentanyl; Markov chain; medical interventions; opioids; OxyContin; pain; prices; structural model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Framing energy choices in consumer decision-making
    evidence from a random experiment in Sweden
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Centre for Innovation Research (CIRCLE), Lund University, [Lund, Sweden]

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    Schriftenreihe: Papers in innovation studies ; no. 2021, 14
    Schlagworte: additive and subtractive option framing; experimental design; Markov chain; final state distribution; transition probability; distance from initial model; anchoring
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The downward spiral
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  BSE, Barcelona School of Economics, [Barcelona]

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    Schriftenreihe: BSE working paper ; 1317 (February 2022)
    Schlagworte: addiction; college/non-college educated; deaths; fentanyl; Markov chain; medical interventions; opioids; OxyContin; pain; prices; structural model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The downward spiral
    Erschienen: 2-10-2022
    Verlag:  Population Studies Center, [Philadelphia, PA]

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    Schriftenreihe: Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC) / Population Studies Center ; 2022, 83
    Schlagworte: addiction; college/non-college educated; deaths; fentanyl; Markov chain; medical interventions; opioids; OxyContin; pain; prices; structural model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. On the fade-away of an initial bias in longitudinal surveys
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin

    We propose a novel view of selection bias in longitudinal surveys. Such bias may arise from initial nonresponse in a probability sample, or it may be caused by self-selection in an internet survey. A contraction theorem from mathematical demography... mehr

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    We propose a novel view of selection bias in longitudinal surveys. Such bias may arise from initial nonresponse in a probability sample, or it may be caused by self-selection in an internet survey. A contraction theorem from mathematical demography is used to show that an initial bias can "fade-away" in later panel waves, if the transition laws in the observed sample and the population are identical. Panel attrition is incorporated into the Markovian framework. Extensions to Markov chains of higher order are given, and the limitations of our approach under population heterogeneity are discussed. We use empirical data from a German Labour Market Panel to demonstrate the extend and speed of the fade-away effect. The implications of the new approach on the treatment of nonresponse, and attrition weighting, are discussed.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251119
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2022, 4
    Schlagworte: Longitudinal survey; panel survey; internet recruitment; panel attrition; nonresponse bias; self-selection bias; Markov chain; Mover-Stayer model; weak ergodicity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. A unifying framework for submodular mean field games
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Center for Mathematical Economics (IMW), Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany

    We provide an abstract framework for submodular mean field games and identify verifiable sufficient conditions that allow to prove existence and approximation of strong mean field equilibria in models where data may not be continuous with respect to... mehr

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    We provide an abstract framework for submodular mean field games and identify verifiable sufficient conditions that allow to prove existence and approximation of strong mean field equilibria in models where data may not be continuous with respect to the measure parameter and common noise is allowed. The setting is general enough to encompass qualitatively different problems, such as mean field games for discrete time finite space Markov chains, singularly controlled and reflected diffusions, and mean field games of optimal timing. Our analysis hinges on Tarski's fixed point theorem, along with technical results on lattices of flows of probability and sub-probability measures.

     

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    hdl: 10419/249884
    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Center for Mathematical Economics ; 661 (January 2022)
    Schlagworte: Mean field games; submodularity; complete lattice of measures; Tarski's fixedpoint theorem; Markov chain; singular stochastic control; reflected diffusion; optimal stopping
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten)
  9. The downward spiral
    Erschienen: 14 February 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 17033
    Schlagworte: Addiction; college/non-college educated; deaths; fentanyl; Markov chain; medicalinterventions; opioids; OxyContin; pain; prices
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. A Markov-Chain measure of systemic banking crisis frequency
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge

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    Schriftenreihe: Cambridge working paper in economics ; 2083
    Schlagworte: Credit cycle; Systemic banking crises; Markov chain
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten), Illustrationen
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  11. The downward spiral
    Erschienen: February 10, 2022
    Verlag:  Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA

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    Schriftenreihe: PIER working paper ; 22, 005
    Schlagworte: addiction; college/non-college educated; deaths; fentanyl; Markov chain; medical interventions; opioids; OxyContin; pain; prices; structural model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The downward spiral
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, a model is constructed where individuals choose whether to use opioids recreationally, knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds... mehr

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    There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, a model is constructed where individuals choose whether to use opioids recreationally, knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of recreational opioid usage. Markov chains are estimated from the US data for the college and non-college educated that summarize the transitions into and out of opioid addiction as well as to a deadly overdose. The structural model is constructed to match the estimated Markov chains. The epidemic's drivers and the impact of medical interventions are examined.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/265795
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15574
    Schlagworte: addiction; college/non-college educated; deaths; fentanyl; Markov chain; medical interventions; opioids; OxyContin; pain; prices; state-contingent preferences; structural model; subjective and objective beliefs
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Continuous-time random matching
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  [Stanford Graduate School of Business], [Stanford, CA]

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: August 18, 2023
    Schriftenreihe: [Stanford University Graduate School of Business research paper ; no. 4549798]
    Schlagworte: Independent dynamic random matching; Markov chain; exact law of large numbers; continuous-time; random mutation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten)
  14. A new class of bivariate threshold cointegration models
    Erschienen: January 2015
    Verlag:  Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Victoria

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics ; 15, 01
    Schlagworte: β-null recurrent; Cointegration; Markov chain; Threshold VAR models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen