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  1. Can international technological diffusion substitute for coordinated global policies to mitigate climate change?
    Autor*in: Barrett, Philip
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    In short, yes. I use a multi-region integrated assessment model with fuel-specific endogenous technical change to examine the impact of Europe and China reducing emissions to zero by mid-century. Without international technological diffusion this is... mehr

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    In short, yes. I use a multi-region integrated assessment model with fuel-specific endogenous technical change to examine the impact of Europe and China reducing emissions to zero by mid-century. Without international technological diffusion this is insufficient to avoid catastrophic climate change. But when innovation can diffuse overseas, long-run temperature increases are limited to 3 degrees. This occurs because policy not only encourages green innovations but also dissuades dirty innovations which would otherwise spread. The most effective policy package in emissions-reducing regions is a research subsidy funded by a carbon tax, driven in the short term by the direct effect of the carbon tax on the composition of energy, and later by innovation induced by research subsidies. Green production subsidies are ineffective because they undermine incentives for innovation

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513585765
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 173
    Schlagworte: Climate Change; Technology; Spillovers; Climate; Global Warming; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Natural Disasters and Their Management
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 76 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Effect of Macroprudential Policies on Sovereign Bond Markets
    Evidence from the ASEAN-4 Countries
    Autor*in: Aizenman, Joshua; Uddin, Mohammed Gazi Salah; Luo, Tianqi; Jayasekera, Ranadeva; Park, Donghyun
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper examines whether prudential policies help to reduce sovereign bond vulnerability to global spillover risk in ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand). We measure sovereign vulnerability within a risk... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    This paper examines whether prudential policies help to reduce sovereign bond vulnerability to global spillover risk in ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand). We measure sovereign vulnerability within a risk connectedness network among sovereign bonds. The direct effect is that markets with tighter prudential policies have significantly smaller spillovers from the Treasury yield shocks of other regional and global economies. The sum of indirect and direct effects indicates that prudential policies reduce sovereign spillover risk in the long term. These findings suggest prudential policies have dual efficiency in sovereign risk regulation and Treasury internationalization

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30477
    Schlagworte: Finanzmarktaufsicht; Öffentliche Anleihe; Rentenmarkt; Internationaler Finanzmarkt; ASEAN-Staaten; Indonesien; Malaysia; Philippinen; Thailand; Monetary Policy; Central Banks and Their Policies; International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  3. Global Monetary and Financial Spillovers
    Evidence from a New Measure of Bundesbank Policy Shocks
    Autor*in: Cloyne, James; Hürtgen, Patrick; Taylor, Alan M.
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected changes in German monetary policy from 580 policy meetings between 1974 and 1998. German monetary policy shocks produce conventional effects on the German domestic economy: activity, prices, and credit decline significantly following a monetary contraction. But given Germany's central role in the European Monetary System (EMS), we can also shed light on debates about the international transmission of monetary policy and the relative importance of the U.S. Federal Reserve for the global cycle during these years. We find that Bundesbank policy spillovers were much stronger in major EMS economies with Deutschmark pegs than in non-EMS economies with floating exchange rates. Furthermore, compared to monetary spillovers from the U.S., German spillovers were comparable or even larger in magnitude for both pegs and floats

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30485
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Geldpolitische Transmission; Wechselkurs; Wechselkurspolitik; Internationaler Finanzmarkt; Europäisches Währungssystem; Deutschland; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Monetary Policy; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; International Business Cycles
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  4. Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows
    Autor*in: Bengui, Julien; Coulibaly, Louphou
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Are unregulated capital flows excessive during a stagflation episode? We argue that they likely are, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy's supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages through a wealth effect on labor... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Are unregulated capital flows excessive during a stagflation episode? We argue that they likely are, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy's supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages through a wealth effect on labor supply and cause unwelcome upward pressure on marginal costs in countries where monetary policy is trying to drive down costs to stabilize inflation. Yet, market forces are likely to generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows, suggesting topsy-turvy capital flows following markup shocks

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30652
    Schlagworte: Kapitalmobilität; Konjunktur; Stagflation; Finanzmarktregulierung; Geldpolitik; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Monetary Policy; Current Account Adjustment; Short-Term Capital Movements; Open Economy Macroeconomics; International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  5. China as an International Lender of Last Resort
    Autor*in: Horn, Sebastian; Parks, Bradley; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China's overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China's overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into China's growing role in the global financial system. A key finding is that the global swap line network put in place by the People's Bank of China is increasingly used as a financial rescue mechanism, with more than USD 170 billion in liquidity support extended to crisis countries, including repeated rollovers of swaps coming due. The swaps bolster gross reserves and are mostly drawn by distressed countries with low liquidity ratios. In addition, we show that Chinese state-owned banks and enterprises have given out an additional USD 70 billion in rescue loans for balance of payments support. Taken together, China's overseas bailouts correspond to more than 20 percent of total IMF lending over the past decade and bailout amounts are growing fast. However, China's rescue loans differ from those of established international lenders of last resort in that they (i) are opaque, (ii) carry relatively high interest rates, and (iii) are almost exclusively targeted to debtors of China's Belt and Road Initiative. These findings have implications for the international financial and monetary architecture, which is becoming more multipolar, less institutionalized, and less transparent

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31105
    Schlagworte: Schuldenübernahme; Lender of Last Resort; Internationaler Kredit; Internationaler Finanzmarkt; Internationale Staatsschulden; Swap; China; International Factor Movements and International Business; International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; Finance; International Financial Markets; Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt; Asia including Middle East
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  6. Stress Relief?
    Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock
    Autor*in: Forbes, Kristin; Friedrich, Christian; Reinhardt, Dennis
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper explores the relationship between different funding structures--including the source, instrument, currency, and counterparty location of funding--and the extent of financial stress experienced in different countries and sectors during the... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    This paper explores the relationship between different funding structures--including the source, instrument, currency, and counterparty location of funding--and the extent of financial stress experienced in different countries and sectors during the sharp risk-off shock in early 2020 when Covid-19 spread globally. We measure financial stress using a new dataset on changes in credit default swap spreads for sovereigns, banks, and corporates. Then we use country-sector and country-sector-time panels to assess how different funding structures are related to financial stress. A higher share of funding from non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) or in US dollars was correlated with significantly greater stress, while a higher share of funding in debt instruments (instead of loans) or cross-border (instead of domestically) was not significantly related to financial stress. The results suggest that macroprudential regulations should broaden their current focus to take into account exposures to NBFI and dollar funding, with less priority for regulations focused on residency (i.e., capital controls). After the sharp increase in financial stress in early 2020, policy responses targeting these structural vulnerabilities (i.e., US$ swap lines and focused on NBFIs) were more effective at mitigating stress related to these funding structures than policies supporting banks, even after controlling for macroeconomic policy responses

     
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  7. Can international technological diffusion substitute for coordinated global policies to mitigate climate change?
    Autor*in: Barrett, Philip
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    In short, yes. I use a multi-region integrated assessment model with fuel-specific endogenous technical change to examine the impact of Europe and China reducing emissions to zero by mid-century. Without international technological diffusion this is... mehr

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    In short, yes. I use a multi-region integrated assessment model with fuel-specific endogenous technical change to examine the impact of Europe and China reducing emissions to zero by mid-century. Without international technological diffusion this is insufficient to avoid catastrophic climate change. But when innovation can diffuse overseas, long-run temperature increases are limited to 3 degrees. This occurs because policy not only encourages green innovations but also dissuades dirty innovations which would otherwise spread. The most effective policy package in emissions-reducing regions is a research subsidy funded by a carbon tax, driven in the short term by the direct effect of the carbon tax on the composition of energy, and later by innovation induced by research subsidies. Green production subsidies are ineffective because they undermine incentives for innovation

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513585765
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 173
    Schlagworte: Climate Change; Technology; Spillovers; Climate; Global Warming; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Natural Disasters and Their Management
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 76 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Managing an Energy Shock
    Fiscal and Monetary Policy
    Autor*in: Auclert, Adrien; Monnery, Hugo; Rognlie, Matthew; Straub, Ludwig
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks in energy-importing economies using a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. When MPCs are realistically large and the elasticity of substitution between energy and domestic goods... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks in energy-importing economies using a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. When MPCs are realistically large and the elasticity of substitution between energy and domestic goods is realistically low, increases in energy prices depress real incomes and cause a recession, even if the central bank does not tighten monetary policy. Imported energy inflation can spill over to wage inflation through a wage-price spiral, but this does not mitigate the decline in real wages. Monetary tightening has limited effect on imported inflation when done in isolation, but can be powerful when done in coordination with other energy importers by lowering world energy demand. Fiscal policy, especially energy price subsidies, can isolate individual energy importers from the shock, but it has large negative externalities on other economies

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31543
    Schlagworte: Energiepreis; Schock; Energie; Import; Wirkungsanalyse; Geldpolitik; Finanzpolitik; Neoklassische Synthese; Energiepreis; Schock; Substitutionselastizität; Privater Konsum; Konjunktur; Geldpolitik; Finanzpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Neoklassische Synthese; Monetary Policy; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; Energy and the Macroeconomy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  9. Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
    Autor*in: Correa, Ricardo; Di Giovanni, Julian; Goldberg, Linda S.; Minoiu, Camelia
    Erschienen: November 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper uses U.S. loan-level credit register data and the 2018-2019 Trade War to test for the effects of international trade uncertainty on domestic credit supply. We exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    This paper uses U.S. loan-level credit register data and the 2018-2019 Trade War to test for the effects of international trade uncertainty on domestic credit supply. We exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty and find that an increase in trade uncertainty is associated with a contraction in bank lending to all firms irrespective of the uncertainty that the firms face. This baseline result holds for lending at the intensive and extensive margins. We document two channels underlying the estimated credit supply effect: a wait-and-see channel by which exposed banks assess their borrowers as riskier and reduce the maturity of their loans and a financial frictions channel by which exposed banks facing relatively higher balance sheet constraints contract lending more. The decline in credit supply has real effects: firms that borrow from more exposed banks experience lower debt growth and investment rates. These effects are stronger for firms that are more reliant on bank finance

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31860
    Schlagworte: Handelskonflikt; Außenhandel; Wirkungsanalyse; Kreditgeschäft; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; USA; International Lending and Debt Problems; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  10. The Debauchery of Currency and Inflation
    Chile, 1970-1973
    Autor*in: Edwards, Sebastian
    Erschienen: November 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    In this essay, I analyze Salvador Allende's economic policies in Chile during the early 1970s. I argue that the explosion of inflation during his administration (above 1,500% on a six-month annualized measure) was predictable, and that the... mehr

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    In this essay, I analyze Salvador Allende's economic policies in Chile during the early 1970s. I argue that the explosion of inflation during his administration (above 1,500% on a six-month annualized measure) was predictable, and that the government's response to it, through massive and strict price controls, generated acute macroeconomic imbalances. I postulate that the combination of runaway inflation, shortages, and black markets generated major disaffection among the middle class and that that unhappiness reduced the support for the Unidad Popular government

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31890
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftspolitik; Inflation; Politische Einstellung; Zeitgeschichte; Chile; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; General; Monetary Policy; International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls; International Policy Coordination and Transmission
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  11. Whatever-It-Takes Policymaking during the Pandemic
    Autor*in: Dominguez, Kathryn M.; Foschi, Andrea
    Erschienen: February 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Central banks across the globe introduced large-scale asset purchase programs to address the unprecedented circumstances experienced during the pandemic. Many of these programs were announced as open-ended to shock-and-awe market participants and... mehr

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    Central banks across the globe introduced large-scale asset purchase programs to address the unprecedented circumstances experienced during the pandemic. Many of these programs were announced as open-ended to shock-and-awe market participants and restore confidence in financial markets. This paper examines whether these whatever-it-takes announcements had larger effects than announcements with explicit limits on scale. We use a narrative approach to categorize announcements made by twenty-two central banks, and event study, propensity-score-matching, and local projection methods to measure the short-term effects of policy announcements on exchange rates and sovereign bond yields. We find that on average a central bank's first whatever-it-takes announcement lowers 10-year bond yields by an additional 47 basis points relative to size-limited announcements, suggesting that communication of potential policy scale matters. Our results for yields hold for both advanced and emerging economies, while exchange rates go in opposing directions, muting their response when we group all countries together

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32115
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Anleihe; Mediale Berichterstattung; Medienwirkung; Ankündigungseffekt; Wirkungsanalyse; Öffentliche Anleihe; Wechselkurs; Ereignisstudie; Epidemie; Coronavirus; Welt; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Central Banks and Their Policies; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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  12. What Drives U.S. Import Price Inflation?
    Autor*in: Amiti, Mary; Itskhoki, Oleg; Weinstein, David E.
    Erschienen: February 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Inflation has risen sharply in many countries since the COVID-19 outbreak. Economists have debated the underlying causes. In this paper, we examine the drivers of the global import price inflation, which peaked at approximately 11 percent a year. We... mehr

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    Inflation has risen sharply in many countries since the COVID-19 outbreak. Economists have debated the underlying causes. In this paper, we examine the drivers of the global import price inflation, which peaked at approximately 11 percent a year. We find that a common global component closely tracks movements in aggregate U.S. import prices until late 2022. Afterward, idiosyncratic U.S. demand shocks started to dominate

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32133
    Schlagworte: Inflation; Außenhandelspreis; USA; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Empirical Studies of Trade; International Policy Coordination and Transmission
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  13. Fiscal Federalism and Monetary Unions
    Autor*in: Berriel, Rafael; Gonzalez-Aguado, Eugenia; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Pastorino, Elena
    Erschienen: December 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We apply ideas from fiscal federalism to reassess how fiscal authority should be delegated within a monetary union. In a real-economy model with no fiscal externalities, in which local fiscal authorities have an informational advantage about the... mehr

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    We apply ideas from fiscal federalism to reassess how fiscal authority should be delegated within a monetary union. In a real-economy model with no fiscal externalities, in which local fiscal authorities have an informational advantage about the preferences of their citizens for public spending relative to a fiscal union, a natural generalization of the classic decentralization result by Oates (1972) applies. Namely, a decentralized fiscal regime dominates a fiscal union, and the degree of dominance increases as the information of the fiscal union worsens in quality. In the presence of direct fiscal externalities across countries, however, a decentralized regime is optimal for small federations of countries, whereas a centralized regime is optimal for large ones. We then consider a monetary-economy model, in which governments finance their expenditures with nominal debt and inflation has a negative impact on aggregate productivity. If the monetary authority can commit to an inflation policy, then a version of Oates (1972)'s decentralization result holds. By contrast, when the monetary authority lacks commitment power, the resulting time-inconsistency problem generates an indirect endogenous fiscal externality. In this case, when a country-level fiscal authority chooses a higher level of nominal debt, it induces the monetary authority to inflate more to reduce the level of distortionary taxes needed to finance the higher debt. Because country-level fiscal authorities do not take into account the costs to other countries of the inflation that their fiscal policies induce, a negative fiscal externality arises. This externality naturally becomes more severe as the number of countries in the monetary union increases. Hence, as in the real-economy model, a decentralized fiscal regime is optimal for small monetary unions, whereas a fiscal union is optimal for sufficiently large ones. Our key result is that as the size of a monetary union increases, it becomes relatively more desirable to centralize fiscal authority. We conclude by discussing the implications of our results for the debate on the integration of fiscal policy within the EU and its enlargement

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31953
    Schlagworte: Währungsunion; Finanzbeziehungen; Finanzpolitik; Theorie; Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination; Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy; International Lending and Debt Problems; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
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  14. International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions
    Autor*in: Ghironi, Fabio; Kim, Daisoon; Ozhan, G. Kemal
    Erschienen: March 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study international trade and macroeconomic dynamics triggered by the imposition of sanctions. We begin with a tractable two-country model where Home and Foreign countries have comparative advantages in production of differentiated consumption... mehr

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    We study international trade and macroeconomic dynamics triggered by the imposition of sanctions. We begin with a tractable two-country model where Home and Foreign countries have comparative advantages in production of differentiated consumption goods and a commodity (e.g., gas), respectively. Home imposes sanctions on Foreign. Financial sanctions exclude a fraction of Foreign agents from the international bond market. Gas sanctions take the form of a ban on gas trade, equivalent to an appropriate price cap in our model. Differentiated goods trade sanctions exclude a fraction of Foreign and Home exporters from international trade. All sanctions lead to resource reallocation in both economies. Exchange rate movements reflect the direction of reallocation and the type of sanctions imposed rather than the success of the sanctions. Welfare analysis shows that gas sanctions are more costly for Home, while differentiated consumption goods trade sanctions are more costly for Foreign. A third country that refrains from joining the sanctions mitigates welfare losses in Foreign, but refraining from joining the sanctions is beneficial for the third country. These findings highlight the importance and the difficulty of international coordination when imposing sanctions

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32188
    Schlagworte: Sanktion; Kapitalmobilität; Gas; Handelseffekt; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Strategische Handelspolitik; Außenwirtschaftstheorie; Foreign Exchange; Open Economy Macroeconomics; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
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  15. Spillovers and Spillbacks
    Autor*in: Acharya, Sushant; Pesenti, Paolo A.
    Erschienen: March 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study international monetary policy spillovers and spillbacks in a tractable two-country Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. Relative to Representative Agent (RANK) models, our framework introduces a precautionary-savings channel, as... mehr

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    We study international monetary policy spillovers and spillbacks in a tractable two-country Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. Relative to Representative Agent (RANK) models, our framework introduces a precautionary-savings channel, as households in both countries face uninsurable income risk, and a real-income channel, as households have heterogeneous marginal propensities to consume (MPC). While both channels amplify the size of spillovers/spillbacks, only precautionary savings can change their sign relative to RANK. Spillovers are likely to be larger in economies with higher fractions of high MPC households and more countercyclical income risk. Quantitatively, both channels amplify spillovers by 30-60% relative to RANK

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32245
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Spillover-Effekt; Geldpolitische Transmission; Internationale Wirtschaft; General; Open Economy Macroeconomics; International Policy Coordination and Transmission
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