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  1. How Did Federal Aid to States and Localities Affect Testing and Vaccine Delivery?
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We estimate whether federal aid for state and local governments played a role in advancing population testing for COVID-19 and the administration of vaccines. To overcome biases that can result from the endogeneity of federal aid allocations, we use... mehr

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    We estimate whether federal aid for state and local governments played a role in advancing population testing for COVID-19 and the administration of vaccines. To overcome biases that can result from the endogeneity of federal aid allocations, we use an instrumental-variables estimator reliant on the substantial variation in federal aid predicted by variation in states' congressional representation. We find that federal fiscal assistance dollars had a modest if any impact on the pace of vaccine rollouts, may have improved the equitability of vaccine administration, and had a substantial impact on the volume of tests administered. Regarding the total number of vaccines delivered, we estimate that an additional $1,000 in fiscal relief per resident, which would amount to $330 billion nationwide, translated into just under 1,200 extra doses of the vaccine being delivered per 100,000 people, with the upper bound of our confidence interval suggesting that we can rule out effects in excess of 7,030 extra doses per 100,000 people. We find that federal dollars predict a smaller gap between the vaccination rates of those with a college education relative to those with a high school education. Finally, our baseline estimate implies that each $1,000 in COVID-19 relief aid per capita generated 55,850 additional tests per 100,000 people

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30206
    Schlagworte: Föderalismus; Gesundheitspolitik; Coronavirus; Impfung; Infektionsschutz; Wirkungsanalyse; USA; State and Local Government: Health; Education; Welfare; Public Pensions; Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession; Health and Inequality
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  2. Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper analyzes whether the propensity to secede by subnational regions responds mostly to differences in income per capita or to distinct identities. We explore this question in a quantitative political economy model where people's willingness... mehr

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    This paper analyzes whether the propensity to secede by subnational regions responds mostly to differences in income per capita or to distinct identities. We explore this question in a quantitative political economy model where people's willingness to finance a public good depends on their income and identity. Using high-resolution economic and linguistic data for the entire globe, we predict the propensity to secede of 3,003 subnational regions in 173 countries. We validate the model-based predictions with data on secessionist movements, state fragility, regional autonomy, and conflict, as well as with an application to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Counterfactual analysis strongly suggests that identity trumps income in determining a region's propensity to secede. Removing identity differences reduces the average support for secession from 7.5% to 0.6% of the population

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30428
    Schlagworte: Sezession; Region; Nationalismus; Ideologie; Einkommen; Sowjetunion; Welt; General; International Economic Order and Integration; National Security; Economic Nationalism; Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession; General
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  3. The Economic Approach to Political Borders
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper overviews theoretical and empirical studies of political borders from an economic perspective. It reviews theories of the number and size of nations focused on the trade-off between economies of scale in public-good provision and... mehr

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    This paper overviews theoretical and empirical studies of political borders from an economic perspective. It reviews theories of the number and size of nations focused on the trade-off between economies of scale in public-good provision and heterogeneity of preferences over public policies as well as on the factors affecting this trade-off, such as democratization, international openness, and conflict. It also reviews theories of political integration and disintegration focused on economic inequality, redistribution policies, and the geographical distribution of resources. Finally, the paper discusses recent empirical studies that shed light on the relations among heterogeneity, conflict, and borders. This line of research is part of a growing literature on the interplay between cultural variables and economic and political outcomes

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30800
    Schlagworte: Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy; International Institutional Arrangements; General; General; Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession; General
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  4. From Lapdogs to Watchdogs
    Random Auditor Assignment and Municipal Fiscal Performance
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    A classic problem in public finance is the over-expenditure of local governments in expectation of a bailout from higher-level administrations. While monitoring could mitigate agency problems, it can itself be rendered ineffective if auditors are... mehr

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    A classic problem in public finance is the over-expenditure of local governments in expectation of a bailout from higher-level administrations. While monitoring could mitigate agency problems, it can itself be rendered ineffective if auditors are corruptible. I evaluate whether limiting auditors' conflicts of interest improves effectiveness and affects the financial health of local governments. I exploit the staggered introduction of a reform that removed the control of auditors' appointment from local politicians and introduced a random assignment mechanism. I obtain four main findings. First, random matching severes auditors-mayors connections. Second, treated municipalities significantly improve their net surpluses and debt repayments, per national government objectives. Third, the fiscal improvement results from a sizeable increase in tax capacity. Fourth, treatment effects are a combination of selection, matching and incentive effects. These findings highlight the value of auditor independence and illustrate how changes in the organizational design of the state can improve government performance

     

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  5. Wayfair
    A Step Towards the Destination, But Sales Tax Competition Remains
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The U.S. Supreme Court decision in the landmark 2018 Wayfair case greatly improved state governments' ability to enforce collection of sales taxes on a destination basis. This has reduced state tax competition with an essentially-untaxed internet,... mehr

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    The U.S. Supreme Court decision in the landmark 2018 Wayfair case greatly improved state governments' ability to enforce collection of sales taxes on a destination basis. This has reduced state tax competition with an essentially-untaxed internet, but has brought traditional cross-border shopping, which is often subject to origin taxation, back to prominence among policy makers and researchers. We provide a detailed discussion of state and local sales tax features and the extent to which they have fostered sales tax competition in recent decades. We then explore the extent to which greater destination taxation has influenced the location of (a) consumer purchases and (b) business locations using two different empirical approaches. First, we analyze county-level data for Tennessee and select surrounding states to provide suggestive evidence that sales tax collections have grown more in rural Tennessee counties and less in Tennessee border counties since Wayfair. Additionally, we show that collections have grown more since Wayfair in North Carolina counties along the Tennessee border, where the tax rate differential is on the order of 3.3 percentage points. Second, we examine state-level data to show that business applications have grown at much faster rates after Wayfair in states with the highest sales tax rates. We attribute this to the removal of the significant disincentive to establish sales tax nexus that dominated the pre-Wayfair environment

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31074
    Schlagworte: Umsatzsteuer; Teilstaat; Steuerwettbewerb; Steuerpolitik; Steuervermeidung; Konsumentenverhalten; Betriebliche Standortwahl; USA; General; Tax Evasion and Avoidance; Other Sources of Revenue; State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue; Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession
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  6. Exporting Ideology
    The Right and Left of Foreign Influence
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We present an economic rationale for countries resorting to foreign influence to export their ideology to other nations. Our model incorporates two fundamental elements: redistribution of the tax burden between capital owners and workers, and... mehr

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    We present an economic rationale for countries resorting to foreign influence to export their ideology to other nations. Our model incorporates two fundamental elements: redistribution of the tax burden between capital owners and workers, and international capital mobility. The model highlights the role of ideology in shaping both the taxes implemented by governments and the cross-border externalities of these policy choices. Pro-capital governments set lower capital taxes than pro-labor governments. Importantly, pro-capital governments benefit from other countries setting low capital taxes, while pro-labor governments' efforts to shift the tax burden onto capital owners are facilitated by higher capital taxes abroad. These cross-border externalities create strong incentives for engaging in foreign influence activities. We solve for a political equilibrium in which incumbent governments may exert costly actions that probabilistically affect the electoral outcome in other countries. In equilibrium, pro-capital parties exert influence aimed at promoting pro-capital parties and policies worldwide, while pro-labor governments carry out foreign influence activities aimed at boosting pro-labor parties and policies in other countries

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31399
    Schlagworte: Ideologie; Internationale Beziehungen; Internationale Wirtschaft; Kapitalmobilität; Steuerpolitik; Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; International Factor Movements and International Business; International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy; Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession; International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
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  7. Intergovernmental Grants and Policy Competition
    Concepts, Institutions, and Evidence
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Our purpose is three-fold. First, we summarize some of the core insights from both classic and more recent papers in the literature on the role of intergovernmental grants in systems of fiscal federalism. Second, we provide an updated look at some of... mehr

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    Our purpose is three-fold. First, we summarize some of the core insights from both classic and more recent papers in the literature on the role of intergovernmental grants in systems of fiscal federalism. Second, we provide an updated look at some of the key institutions through which intergovernmental transfers are implemented in the United States. Third, we consider the rich environment of the COVID-19 pandemic in which new additional intergovernmental transfers were deployed, and present empirical evidence on how they affected state-level corporate tax policy. We conclude by discussing productive directions for future research on the economics of fiscal federalism and the role of intergovernmental grants as policy instruments in federal systems

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31251
    Schlagworte: Föderalismus; Finanzausgleich; USA; State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations; State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue; Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession
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  8. Domino Secessions
    Evidence from the U.S
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We analyze how secession movements unfold and the interdependence of regions' decisions to secede. We first model and then empirically examine how secessions can occur sequentially because the costs of secession decrease with the number of seceders... mehr

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    We analyze how secession movements unfold and the interdependence of regions' decisions to secede. We first model and then empirically examine how secessions can occur sequentially because the costs of secession decrease with the number of seceders and because regions update their decisions based on whether other regions decide to secede. We verify the existence of these "domino secessions" using the canonical case of the secession of southern U.S. states in the 1860s. We establish that financial markets priced in the costs of secession to geographically-specific assets (state bonds) after Lincoln's election in the fall of 1860 - long before war broke out. We then show that state bond yields reflect the decreasing costs of secession in two ways. First, as the number of states seceding increased, yields on the bonds of states that had already seceded fell. Second, seceding states with more heterogeneous voters had higher risk premia, reflecting investors beliefs that further sub-secession was more likely in these locations

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31589
    Schlagworte: Bürgerkrieg; Sezession; Öffentliche Anleihe; Öffentliche Schulden; USA; Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates; Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession; U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
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  9. Minimum Tax Rates and Tax Competition
    Evidence from Property Tax Limits in Finland
    Erschienen: July 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper analyzes how minimum local property tax rates affect local tax policy choice. In Finland, central government has raised the limits on property tax rates several times in the past 30 years. I construct a measure of forced tax rate increases... mehr

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    This paper analyzes how minimum local property tax rates affect local tax policy choice. In Finland, central government has raised the limits on property tax rates several times in the past 30 years. I construct a measure of forced tax rate increases caused by these reforms and examine how municipalities respond to forced increases in nearby municipalities. Results for the property tax on business properties indicate that neighbors' forced tax rate increases lead to higher tax rates, after a reform of the tax base equalization system which increased incentives to compete for the tax base. Before the equalization reform, the tax rates on business properties were unaffected by neighbors' forced tax rate increases. I find some indications that forced increases in the residential property tax rate lead to lower tax rates in neighboring municipalities four years later. Analysis of government bills shows that the introduction of minimum tax rates was partly motivated by concerns regarding horizontal and vertical tax competition. Forced property tax rate increases have a clear and lasting effect on tax revenue in affected municipalities, implying that the tax capacity of central government as regards other tax bases likely increased

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31482
    Schlagworte: Grundsteuer; Gemeindesteuer; Steuerpolitik; Steuerwirkung; Steuerwettbewerb; Gemeinde; Steuertarif; Finnland; General; State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue; Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession
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  10. Competition, Harmonization and Redistribution
    Corporate Taxes in Switzerland
    Erschienen: November 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Switzerland could be considered as a test case for international corporate-tax policy coordination. It is a federation of 26 fiscally autonomous cantons that have been taxing corporate profits more or less independently for over a century. We... mehr

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    Switzerland could be considered as a test case for international corporate-tax policy coordination. It is a federation of 26 fiscally autonomous cantons that have been taxing corporate profits more or less independently for over a century. We document and discuss corporate taxation in Switzerland, with a focus on three aspects: (a) the evolving within-country geography of taxable profits and corporate tax rates, (b) the nature and historical emergence of formal tax-base harmonization, and (c) the functioning of fiscal equalization. Parallels are drawn and differences are discussed relative to ongoing efforts at international tax coordination

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31830
    Schlagworte: Unternehmensbesteuerung; Körperschaftsteuer; Föderalismus; Steuerwettbewerb; Steuerharmonisierung; Finanzausgleich; Schweiz; Business Taxes and Subsidies; State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue; Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession
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