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  1. Do banks price environmental transition risks?
    evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in a Chinese province
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper assesses the financial risks arising from transition toward a low-emission economy. The environmental DSGE model shows tightening environmental regulation impairs firms' balance sheets, and consequently threatens financial stability in the... mehr

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    This paper assesses the financial risks arising from transition toward a low-emission economy. The environmental DSGE model shows tightening environmental regulation impairs firms' balance sheets, and consequently threatens financial stability in the short term. The empirical analysis indicates that following the implmentation of Clean Air Action Plan, the default rates of high-polluting firms in a Chinese province rose by around 80 percent. Joint equity commercial banks with higher level of independence were able to appropriately price in their exposure to transition risks, while the Big Five commercial banks failed to factor in such risks

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513590219
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 228
    Schlagworte: E-DSGE Model; Financial stability; Clean Air Action Plan; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Energy and the Macroeconomy; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money; Taxation and Subsidies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. War, Influenza, and U.S. Carbon Intensity
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Carbon intensity from fossil fuel use in the United States economy peaked in 1917. World War I ended, and the Spanish Flu pandemic broke out one year later in 1918. This paper contends that these events, coupled with associated turmoil in the... mehr

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    Carbon intensity from fossil fuel use in the United States economy peaked in 1917. World War I ended, and the Spanish Flu pandemic broke out one year later in 1918. This paper contends that these events, coupled with associated turmoil in the domestic coal industry, were largely responsible for the turning point in carbon intensity. It is instructive to consider that geopolitics, labor markets, and public health at the time of peak carbon intensity bear relevance to the global economy from 2019 to the present. Interventions in markets intended to mitigate detrimental consequences of pandemic and war may induce ancillary impacts for long-run climate change and environmental quality

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30522
    Schlagworte: Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Kohlenbergbau; Epidemie; Weltkrieg; Wirtschaftsgeschichte; USA; U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913; U.S.; Canada: 1913-; U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913; U.S.; Canada: 1913-; U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913; U.S.; Canada: 1913-; Energy and the Macroeconomy; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  3. Five Myths About Carbon Pricing
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    While carbon pricing, in general, and carbon taxes, in particular, are popular with economists, they are subject to considerable misunderstanding among policy makers and the public. In this paper I consider and refute five myths about carbon taxes: ... mehr

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    While carbon pricing, in general, and carbon taxes, in particular, are popular with economists, they are subject to considerable misunderstanding among policy makers and the public. In this paper I consider and refute five myths about carbon taxes: 1) that a carbon price will hurt economic growth; 2) that carbon pricing will kill jobs; 3) that a carbon tax and cap and trade program have the same economic impacts; 4) that we can't achieve carbon reduction targets with a carbon tax; and 5) that carbon pricing is regressive. I then discuss implications for policy making

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31104
    Schlagworte: Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Emissionshandel; Ökosteuer; Wirkungsanalyse; Meinung; Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; Energy and the Macroeconomy; Government Policy; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  4. Do banks price environmental transition risks?
    evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in a Chinese province
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper assesses the financial risks arising from transition toward a low-emission economy. The environmental DSGE model shows tightening environmental regulation impairs firms' balance sheets, and consequently threatens financial stability in the... mehr

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    This paper assesses the financial risks arising from transition toward a low-emission economy. The environmental DSGE model shows tightening environmental regulation impairs firms' balance sheets, and consequently threatens financial stability in the short term. The empirical analysis indicates that following the implmentation of Clean Air Action Plan, the default rates of high-polluting firms in a Chinese province rose by around 80 percent. Joint equity commercial banks with higher level of independence were able to appropriately price in their exposure to transition risks, while the Big Five commercial banks failed to factor in such risks

     

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    ISBN: 9781513590219
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 228
    Schlagworte: E-DSGE Model; Financial stability; Clean Air Action Plan; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Energy and the Macroeconomy; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money; Taxation and Subsidies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Climate Change, Directed Innovation, and Energy Transition
    The Long-run Consequences of the Shale Gas Revolution
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We investigate the short- and long-term effects of a natural gas boom in an economy where energy can be produced with coal, natural gas, or clean sources and the direction of technology is endogenous. In the short run, a natural gas boom reduces... mehr

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    We investigate the short- and long-term effects of a natural gas boom in an economy where energy can be produced with coal, natural gas, or clean sources and the direction of technology is endogenous. In the short run, a natural gas boom reduces carbon emissions by inducing substitution away from coal. Yet, the natural gas boom discourages innovation directed at clean energy, which delays and can even permanently prevent the energy transition to zero carbon. We formalize and quantitatively evaluate these forces using a benchmark model of directed technical change for the energy sector. Quantitatively, the technology response to the shale gas boom results in a significant increase in emissions as the US economy is pushed into a "fossil-fuel trap" where long-run innovations shift away from renewables. Overall, the shale gas boom reduces our measure of social welfare under laissez-faire, whereas, combined with carbon taxes and more generous green subsidies, it could have increased welfare substantially

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31657
    Schlagworte: Erdgas; Energiemix; Erneuerbare Energie; Energiewende; Umwelttechnik; Innovation; Klimawandel; Treibhausgas-Emissionen; USA; General; One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models; Environment and Growth; Resource Booms; Energy and the Macroeconomy; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming; Technological Innovation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  6. Managing an Energy Shock
    Fiscal and Monetary Policy
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks in energy-importing economies using a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. When MPCs are realistically large and the elasticity of substitution between energy and domestic goods... mehr

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    This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks in energy-importing economies using a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. When MPCs are realistically large and the elasticity of substitution between energy and domestic goods is realistically low, increases in energy prices depress real incomes and cause a recession, even if the central bank does not tighten monetary policy. Imported energy inflation can spill over to wage inflation through a wage-price spiral, but this does not mitigate the decline in real wages. Monetary tightening has limited effect on imported inflation when done in isolation, but can be powerful when done in coordination with other energy importers by lowering world energy demand. Fiscal policy, especially energy price subsidies, can isolate individual energy importers from the shock, but it has large negative externalities on other economies

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31543
    Schlagworte: Energiepreis; Schock; Energie; Import; Wirkungsanalyse; Geldpolitik; Finanzpolitik; Neoklassische Synthese; Energiepreis; Schock; Substitutionselastizität; Privater Konsum; Konjunktur; Geldpolitik; Finanzpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Neoklassische Synthese; Monetary Policy; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; Energy and the Macroeconomy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  7. Distributional Equity in the Employment and Wage Impacts of Energy Transitions
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We use restricted-access, geocoded data on the near-universe of workers in 23 U.S. states in order to quantify the impact of wind energy development on local earnings and employment, by race, ethnicity, sex, and educational attainment. We find the... mehr

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    We use restricted-access, geocoded data on the near-universe of workers in 23 U.S. states in order to quantify the impact of wind energy development on local earnings and employment, by race, ethnicity, sex, and educational attainment. We find the largest relative impacts for workers without a high school education, or workers with a college education, in addition to other systematic differences across sub-populations. We compare these results to estimates using county aggregates of the worker-level data, such as can be obtained using publicly available data. We find that (a) county-level estimates are dramatically dampened relative to geocoded worker-level estimates, and (b) the degree of bias differs by sub-population such that qualitative comparisons of impacts are not consistent using restricted-access data versus county-level data for most sub-populations. We discuss implications for achieving equity goals within energy transition policies

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31608
    Schlagworte: Windenergie; Windenergieanlage; Energiepolitik; Beschäftigungseffekt; Lohnstruktur; Regionalökonomik; USA; Energy; Alternative Energy Sources; Energy and the Macroeconomy; Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes; Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  8. Clean Growth
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We provide a spatial theory of clean growth to assess the global impact of the rise of renewable energy. We model the details of the combined production and transmission network of electricity ("the grid") that determine the supply and losses of... mehr

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    We provide a spatial theory of clean growth to assess the global impact of the rise of renewable energy. We model the details of the combined production and transmission network of electricity ("the grid") that determine the supply and losses of energy in space. The local rate of clean energy adoption depends on learning-by-doing, the global electricity and trade network, and regional comparative advantage in renewable resources. We use the model to measure the aggregate and spatial implications of clean growth. We find that the world's power system is likely to be dominated by renewables by 2040 in a range of scenarios, with substantial welfare gains, even in the absence of policy. Incorporating policy, we find that the US Inflation Reduction Act significantly accelerates renewable uptake, and generates substantial economic benefits. In addition, planned grid improvements lower prices substantially in many areas of the US, justifying their cost of construction

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31615
    Schlagworte: Erneuerbare Energie; Wirtschaftswachstum; Umweltpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Regionalökonomik; USA; Neoclassical Models of Trade; General; Demand and Supply; Prices; Alternative Energy Sources; Energy and the Macroeconomy; General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  9. Tax Credits for Clean Electricity
    The Distributional Impacts of Supply-Push Policies in the Power Sector
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We evaluate distributional and efficiency consequences of the bulk power clean electricity tax credits authorized by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. To do so, we link detailed electricity capacity expansion, computable general equilibrium,... mehr

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    We evaluate distributional and efficiency consequences of the bulk power clean electricity tax credits authorized by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. To do so, we link detailed electricity capacity expansion, computable general equilibrium, data-rich microsimulation, and air pollution models to estimate the policy incidence in terms of economic welfare and health impacts across a wide range of demographic groups. We evaluate the tradeoff between policy efficiency and income progressivity by comparing the tax credits to cap-and-trade policies that vary revenue recycling approaches. Under the scenarios analyzed the bulk power tax credits lead to increased clean electricity technology deployment resulting in a reallocation of capital from elsewhere in the economy, higher prices for capital and other goods, lower power prices, and lower emissions. The tax credits yield progressive outcomes for both economic welfare and health impacts. The health benefits exceed total policy costs and provide greater benefits for low-income and historically-marginalized households given the coincidence of household and emission source locations

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31621
    Schlagworte: Saubere Energie; Elektrizität; Steuervergünstigung; Verteilungswirkung; Wirkungsanalyse; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; USA; Energy and the Macroeconomy; Government Policy
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  10. Pandemic, War, Inflation
    Oil Markets at a Crossroads?
    Erschienen: July 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The COVID-19 pandemic as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine have had profound effects on the global energy landscape, with some of the longer-lasting effects still unfolding. This paper discusses how these events have reshaped the supply side of... mehr

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    The COVID-19 pandemic as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine have had profound effects on the global energy landscape, with some of the longer-lasting effects still unfolding. This paper discusses how these events have reshaped the supply side of the global oil market by focusing on structural changes in each of the three main oil-producing countries. The demand side has responded to geopolitical developments by devising a set of policy tools to stabilize oil markets and counter inflationary pressures. In particular, the price cap policy was introduced to supplement the EU embargo on seaborne Russian oil exports, and record volumes of oil were released from government-controlled emergency stockpiles. The sources of oil price fluctuations associated with these events are also discussed, as is their role in the recent surge of inflation, with a particular focus on the heterogeneity in the pass-through of oil supply shocks within the Euro area

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31496
    Schlagworte: Ölmarkt; Strukturwandel; Coronavirus; Epidemie; Krieg; Sanktion; Ausfuhrverbot; Inflation; Wirkungsanalyse; Ölpreis; Eurozone; USA; Saudi-Arabien; Russland; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Central Banks and Their Policies; Demand and Supply; Prices; Energy and the Macroeconomy
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  11. The Environmental Cost of Easy Credit
    The Housing Channel
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Heating, cooling, and powering the residential housing stock accounts for about one-fifth of total annual greenhouse gas emissions in the US. Home size is a key determinant of energy intensity. The average newly built single-family home is 50%... mehr

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    Heating, cooling, and powering the residential housing stock accounts for about one-fifth of total annual greenhouse gas emissions in the US. Home size is a key determinant of energy intensity. The average newly built single-family home is 50% larger than in the 1950s. Using distinct identification strategies spanning the last four decades of banking history, we show that more abundant credit increases average new home size. It also facilitates more construction but does not produce offsetting increases in home quality or durability. These results highlight potential environmental costs associated with monetary policies that expand access to credit

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31769
    Schlagworte: Kreditgeschäft; Wohnimmobilien; Elektrizitätsversorgung; Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Umweltkosten; USA; General; Energy and the Macroeconomy; Housing Demand; Housing Supply and Markets
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