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  1. Occasionally binding constraints in large models: a review of solution methods
    Autor*in: Swarbrick, Jonathan M.
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    This practical review assesses several approaches to solving medium- and large-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models featuring occasionally binding constraints. In such models, global solution methods are not possible because of... mehr

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    This practical review assesses several approaches to solving medium- and large-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models featuring occasionally binding constraints. In such models, global solution methods are not possible because of the curse of dimensionality. This causes the modeller to look elsewhere for methods that can handle the significant non-linearities and non-differentiable functions that inequality constraints represent. The paper discusses methods-including Newton-type solvers under perfect foresight, the piecewise linear algorithm (OccBin), regime-switching models (RISE) and the news shocks approach (DynareOBC) - and compares the results from a simple borrowing constraints model obtained using projection methods, providing example MATLAB code. The study focuses on the news shocks method, which I find produces higher accuracy than other methods and allows the modeller to study multiple equilibria and determinacy issues.

     
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    hdl: 10419/241097
    Schriftenreihe: Staff discussion paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 5
    Schlagworte: Economic models; Business fluctuations and cycles
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Bitcoin adoption and beliefs in Canada
    Autor*in: Balutel, Daniela; Henry, Christopher; Vásquez, Jorge; Voia, Marcel-Christian
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    We develop a tractable model of Bitcoin adoption with network effects and social learning, which we then connect to unique data from the Bank of Canada's Bitcoin Omnibus Survey for the years 2017 and 2018. The model determines how the probability of... mehr

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    We develop a tractable model of Bitcoin adoption with network effects and social learning, which we then connect to unique data from the Bank of Canada's Bitcoin Omnibus Survey for the years 2017 and 2018. The model determines how the probability of Bitcoin adoption depends on (1) network effects; (2) individual learning effects; and (3) social learning effects. After accounting for the endogeneity of beliefs, we find that both network effects and individual learning effects have a positive and significant direct impact on Bitcoin adoption, whereas the role of social learning is to ameliorate the marginal effect of the network size on the likelihood of adoption. In particular, in 2017 and 2018, a one percentage point increase in the network size increased the probability of adoption by 0.45 and 0.32 percentage points, respectively. Similarly, a one percentage point increase in Bitcoin beliefs increased the probability of adoption by 0.43 and 0.72 percentage points. Our results suggest that network effects, individual learning, and social learning were important drivers of Bitcoin adoption in 2017 and 2018 in Canada.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248321
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: November 26, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 60
    Schlagworte: Virtuelle Währung; Lernprozess; Netzwerkökonomik; Kanada; Digital currencies and fintech; Economic models; Econometric and statistical methods
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The Bank of Canada's "horse race" of alternative monetary policy frameworks: some interim results from model simulations
    Autor*in: Dorich, José; Mendes, Rhys; Zhang, Yang
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    Since 1991, the Bank of Canada has had an inflation‐targeting (IT) framework established by a joint agreement between the Bank and the Government of Canada. The framework is reviewed every five years as part of the process for renewing the... mehr

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    Since 1991, the Bank of Canada has had an inflation‐targeting (IT) framework established by a joint agreement between the Bank and the Government of Canada. The framework is reviewed every five years as part of the process for renewing the inflation‐control agreement. This discussion paper summarizes some interim results from Bank staff analysis done for the August 2020 workshop, "Towards the 2021 Renewal of the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Framework." The Bank will publish updated analysis later in 2021. The core of the current framework-the 2 percent inflation target-has remained unchanged since 1995. This fact reflects its success. Well‐anchored inflation expectations contribute to macroeconomic stability while leaving monetary policy with greater flexibility. The 2021 renewal highlights two key challenges facing Canadian monetary policy: (1) the low neutral rate of interest; and (2) the low interest rates associated with a low neutral rate that may encourage excessive risk taking and debt accumulation To address these challenges, Bank staff are running a "horse race" of alternative monetary policy frameworks (i.e., alternatives to the 2 percent IT framework). Their work evaluates these alternatives using a broad range of qualitative and quantitative criteria and focuses on the macroeconomic performance of the alternative frameworks. The interim results we report in this discussion paper suggest overall that no framework dominates on all margins. As a result, the ranking depends on the relative weight placed on different criteria.

     
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    hdl: 10419/251026
    Schriftenreihe: Staff discussion paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 13
    Schlagworte: Central bank research; Economic models; Inflation targets; Monetary policy framework; Monetary policy; Monetary policy transmission
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Optimal monetary policy according to HANK
    Autor*in: Acharya, Sushant; Challe, Edouard; Dogra, Keshav
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model with rich cross-sectional heterogeneity. Optimal policy differs from that in a representative agent model because monetary policy can affect... mehr

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    We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model with rich cross-sectional heterogeneity. Optimal policy differs from that in a representative agent model because monetary policy can affect consumption inequality by reducing both idiosyncratic consumption risk and the inequality that arises from households' unequal exposures to aggregate shocks. Simple target criteria summarize the planner's tradeoff between consumption inequality, productive efficiency and price stability. Mitigating consumption inequality requires putting some weight on stabilizing the level of output and correspondingly reducing the weights on the output gap and the price level relative to an economy without inequality.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248316
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: November 5, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 55
    Schlagworte: Economic models; Monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 78 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Can the Business Outlook Survey help improve estimates of the Canadian output gap?
    Autor*in: Cheung, Calista; Frymire, Luke; Pichette, Lise
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    The output gap is a key variable used to assess inflationary pressures in the economy, but estimates in real time are subject to uncertainty and often revised significantly. This paper assesses whether questions in the Bank of Canada's Business... mehr

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    The output gap is a key variable used to assess inflationary pressures in the economy, but estimates in real time are subject to uncertainty and often revised significantly. This paper assesses whether questions in the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey (BOS) can provide useful signals for broader capacity pressures in the economy. The concept of capacity pressures is captured in the BOS through various questions on firms' ability to meet demand and labour shortages. In particular, we examine whether these BOS questions, as well as a summary measure of the BOS results, produce information that can be used to improve real-time output gap estimates for Canada. We find that survey data help predict the various measures of the output gap used by the Bank of Canada. This supports the Bank's practice of using information contained in the BOS to refine its assessment of the current state of the economic cycle. It further provides a framework for incorporating the survey information into quantitative estimates of the output gap.

     
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    hdl: 10419/241090
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: January 5, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff discussion paper / Bank of Canada ; 2020, 14
    Schlagworte: Business fluctuations and cycles; Central bank research; Economic models; Monetary policy and uncertainty; Potential output
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. ToTEM III
    the Bank of Canada's main DSGE model for projection and policy analysis
    Autor*in: Corrigan, Paul; Desgagnés, Hélène; Dorich, José; Lepetyuk, Vadym; Miyamoto, Wataru; Zhang, Yang
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: June 28, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Technical report / Bank of Canada ; 119
    Schlagworte: Business fluctuations and cycles; Economic models; Housing; Interest rates; Monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The geography of pandemic containment
    Autor*in: Giannone, Elisa; Paixão, Nuno; Pang, Xinle
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    How does interconnectedness affect the course of a pandemic? What are the optimal withinand between-state containment policies? We embed a spatial SIR model into a multi-sector quantitative trade model. We calibrate it to US states and the COVID-19... mehr

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    How does interconnectedness affect the course of a pandemic? What are the optimal withinand between-state containment policies? We embed a spatial SIR model into a multi-sector quantitative trade model. We calibrate it to US states and the COVID-19 pandemic and find that interconnectedness increases the death toll by 146,200 lives. A local within-state containment policy minimizes welfare losses relative to a national policy or to one that reduces mobility between states. The optimal policy combines local within- and betweenstate restrictions and saves 289,300 lives. This optimal policy induces a peak reduction in mobility of 25.97% that saves approximately 23% more lives. Different timing of policies across states is key to minimizing losses. States like South Carolina might have imposed internal lockdowns too early but travel restrictions too late.

     
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    hdl: 10419/241249
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: June 10, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 26
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Epidemie; Infektionskrankheit; Morbidität; Räumliche Interaktion; USA; Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Economic models; Regional economic developments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Monetary policy, trends in real interest rates and depressed demand
    Autor*in: Beaudry, Paul; Meh, Césaire Assah
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    Over the last few decades, real interest rates have trended downward in many countries. The most common explanation is that this reflects depressed demand due to demographic, technological and other real factors such as income inequality. In this... mehr

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    Over the last few decades, real interest rates have trended downward in many countries. The most common explanation is that this reflects depressed demand due to demographic, technological and other real factors such as income inequality. In this paper we explore the claim that these trends may have been amplified by certain features of monetary policy. We show that when long-run asset demands by households are C-shaped in relation to real interest rates, a feature we motivate through bequest motives, monetary policy has the potential to affect steady-state properties even if money is neutral in the long run. In particular, we show that if monetary policy reacts aggressively to inflation, this supports a steady state where inflation is close to the central bank's target. However, the same aggressive policy simultaneously favours the emergence of, and the convergence to, a second stable and determinate steady state where both the real interest rate and inflation are lower and monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound. We discuss how fiscal policy can be used to escape this low-real-rate, low-inflation trap with the potential for a discontinuous response of long-run inflation.

     
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    hdl: 10419/241250
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: August 16, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 27
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Economic models; Inflation and prices; Interest rates; Debt management
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Allocative efficiency and aggregate productivity growth in Canada and the United States
    Autor*in: Shao, Lin; Tang, Rongsheng
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    This paper evaluates the contribution of allocative efficiency to the aggregate productivity growth in Canada and the US. In particular, we are interested in explaining two puzzling facts: 1) the slowdown in productivity growth during the 1970s and... mehr

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    This paper evaluates the contribution of allocative efficiency to the aggregate productivity growth in Canada and the US. In particular, we are interested in explaining two puzzling facts: 1) the slowdown in productivity growth during the 1970s and the 2000s in the US, and 2) the widening Canada-US productivity gap since the middle of the 1980s. We extend the framework of Oberfield (2013) to derive sufficient statistics for allocative efficiency and decompose aggregate productivity in an input-output economy à la Jones (2013). The lack of improvement in allocative efficiency can explain two-thirds of the US’s productivity slowdown and more than one-third of the widening Canada-US productivity gap. The allocation of capital, rather than labor, was the main driver behind the overall movement in allocative efficiency. Resources allocated to service sectors were significantly lower than the optimal level. It improved markedly over time, especially in the US before the 2000s.

     
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    hdl: 10419/241224
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: January 7, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 1
    Schlagworte: Economic models; Productivity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. (Optimal) monetary policy with and without debt
    Autor*in: Chafwehé, Boris; Oikonomou, Rigas; Priftis, Romanos; Vogel, Lukas
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    We propose a framework of optimal monetary policy where debt sustainability may, or may not, be a relevant constraint for the central bank. We show analytically that in each environment the optimal interest rate path consists of a Taylor rule... mehr

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    We propose a framework of optimal monetary policy where debt sustainability may, or may not, be a relevant constraint for the central bank. We show analytically that in each environment the optimal interest rate path consists of a Taylor rule augmented with forward guidance terms. These terms arise either i) from "twisting interest rates" when the central bank ensures debt sustainability, or ii) under no debt concerns, from committing to keep interest rates low at the exit of the liquidity trap. The optimal policy is isomorphic to Leeper's (1991) "passive monetary/active fiscal policy" regime in the first instance, or "active monetary/passive fiscal policy" regime in the second. We insert our framework into a standard medium scale DSGE model calibrated to the US. Optimal passive monetary policy with debt concerns is ineffective in stabilizing inflation, whereas under no debt concerns, monetary policy is very effective in stabilizing the macroeconomy.

     
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    hdl: 10419/241228
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: January 26, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 5
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; Monetary policy framework; Fiscal policy; Economic models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. The anatomy of sentiment-driven fluctuations
    Autor*in: Acharya, Sushant; Benhabib, Jess; Huo, Zhen
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    We show that sentiments - self-fulfilling changes in beliefs that are orthogonal to fundamentals - can drive persistent aggregate fluctuations under rational expectations in a beauty contest game. Such fluctuations can occur even in the absence of... mehr

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    We show that sentiments - self-fulfilling changes in beliefs that are orthogonal to fundamentals - can drive persistent aggregate fluctuations under rational expectations in a beauty contest game. Such fluctuations can occur even in the absence of exogenous aggregate fundamental shocks. Moreover, sentiments alter the volatility and persistence of aggregate outcomes in response to fundamental shocks. We provide (i) necessary conditions under which sentiments can affect aggregate outcomes in equilibrium and (ii) conditions under which sentiments drive persistent fluctuations and when they only affect aggregate outcomes contemporaneously. We also show that sentiment equilibria are stable under least-squares learning while the fundamental equilibrium is not.

     
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    hdl: 10419/247413
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: July 14, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 33
    Schlagworte: Business fluctuations and cycles; Economic models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Stressed but not helpless
    strategic behavior of banks under adverse market conditions
    Autor*in: Halaj, Grzegorz; Priazhkina, Sofia
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    We model bank management actions in severe stress test conditions using a game-theoretical framework. Banks update their balance sheets to strategically maximize risk-adjusted returns to shareholders given three regulatory constraints and feedback... mehr

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    We model bank management actions in severe stress test conditions using a game-theoretical framework. Banks update their balance sheets to strategically maximize risk-adjusted returns to shareholders given three regulatory constraints and feedback effects related to fire sales, interactions of loan supply and demand, and deteriorating funding conditions. The framework allows us to study the role of strategic behaviors in amplifying or mitigating adverse macrofinancial shocks in a banking system and the role of macroprudential policies in the mitigation of systemic risk. In a macro-consistent stress testing application, we show that a trade-off can arise between banking stability (solvency) and macroeconomic stability (lending) and test whether the release of a countercyclical capital buffer can reduce systemic risk.

     
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    hdl: 10419/247415
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: July 19, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 35
    Schlagworte: Central bank research; Economic models; Financial institutions; Financial stability; Financial system regulation and policies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Trade and market power in product and labor markets
    Autor*in: MacKenzie, Gaelan
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    This paper studies the effects of endogenous firm-level market power in input and product markets on equilibrium prices and wages as well as the gains from trade using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. Firm-level prices and wages... mehr

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    This paper studies the effects of endogenous firm-level market power in input and product markets on equilibrium prices and wages as well as the gains from trade using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. Firm-level prices and wages are functions of two endogenous distortions: (i) a markup of price over marginal cost that depends on product market shares and (ii) a markdown of wages relative to marginal revenue product that depends on labor market shares. Both distortions cause large firms to be too small relative to local labor market competitors compared to a setting with perfect competition in input and product markets. Opening product markets up to trade reallocates market shares in product and labor markets towards countries' large firms, which can reduce misallocation but also increases the labor market power of these firms. After estimating the structural parameters of the model using Indian plant-level data, I show that accounting for endogenous labor market power implies only small welfare losses due to misallocation and therefore a negligible increase in the gains from trade. Trade has significantly larger effects on firms' markups than on their markdowns. Nevertheless, because of the increase in large firms' input market power, there is a redistribution of the gains from trade from wages to firm profits.

     
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    hdl: 10419/241240
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: April 7, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 17
    Schlagworte: Economic models; Labour markets; Market structure and pricing; Productivity; Trade integration
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 79 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Labor demand response to labor supply incentives
    lessons from the German Mini-Job Reform
    Autor*in: Galassi, Gabriela
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    This paper analyzes how firms respond to changes in tax benefits for low-earning workers and how, through equilibrium effects, such policies also affect non-targeted, high-earning workers. I explore establishment-level outcomes around Germany's 2003... mehr

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    This paper analyzes how firms respond to changes in tax benefits for low-earning workers and how, through equilibrium effects, such policies also affect non-targeted, high-earning workers. I explore establishment-level outcomes around Germany's 2003 Mini-Job Reform, which entailed a significant expansion of tax benefits for low-earning workers. Firms' responses are decomposed in terms of the scale effects that arise from lower labor costs and the substitution effects that are due to changes in the relative prices of low- and high-earning employment post-reform. Using a differences-in-differences approach, I document that highly exposed establishments-those with a high proportion of low-earning workers pre-reform-expand their number of employees relative to non-exposed establishments-those with a low proportion of such workers. Importantly, this relative expansion is tilted towards high-earning workers, a group that is not the target of the tax benefits. In addition, non-exposed establishments substitute employment towards low-earning workers without expanding at the same pace. My findings are consistent with a model of the labor market that features tax sharing between workers and firms and simultaneous shifts in labor supply and demand after changes in tax benefits for low-earning workers. In this setting I illustrate that the employment growth the policy intended is accompanied by a reallocation of employment and production between highly exposed firms and non-exposed firms, and this may result in an efficiency loss.

     
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    hdl: 10419/241238
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: March 29, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 15
    Schlagworte: Labour markets; Firm dynamics; Economic models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 95 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. How long is forever in the laboratory?
    three implementations of an infinite-horizon monetary economy
    Autor*in: Jiang, Janet Hua; Puzzello, Daniela; Zhang, Cathy
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    We compare three implementation schemes of an infinite-horizon monetary economy with discounting. Under the standard random termination scheme and its block variation, the economy lasts for an indefinite number of periods and the discounting factor... mehr

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    We compare three implementation schemes of an infinite-horizon monetary economy with discounting. Under the standard random termination scheme and its block variation, the economy lasts for an indefinite number of periods and the discounting factor is captured by the probability that the economy continues to the next period. These schemes rely on the belief that the experimenter can credibly implement a game that lasts an arbitrarily long time. We also propose a new method that does not rely on such a belief. Under this scheme, subjects participate in an experiment for a fixed number of periods where the discount factor is captured by a weighting factor that shrinks the payoffs over time. Dynamic incentives are preserved by paying subjects their continuation value, which is based on past market prices. The results show that dynamic incentives are preserved, and behavior is similar in all three implementations. Researchers may decide among these approaches, depending on the research question of interest and more practical concerns, such as the ease of implementation and the need to collect data for multiple supergames when the discount factor is high.

     
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    hdl: 10419/241239
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: April 5, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 16
    Schlagworte: Central bank research; Economic models; Inflation and prices
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Addictive platforms
    Autor*in: Ichihashi, Shota; Kim, Byung-Cheol
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    We study competition for consumer attention, in which platforms can sacrifice service quality for attention. A platform can choose the "addictiveness" of its service. A more addictive platform yields consumers a lower utility of participation but a... mehr

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    We study competition for consumer attention, in which platforms can sacrifice service quality for attention. A platform can choose the "addictiveness" of its service. A more addictive platform yields consumers a lower utility of participation but a higher marginal utility of allocating attention. We provide conditions under which increased competition can harm consumers by encouraging platforms to offer low-quality services. In particular, if attention is scarce, increased competition reduces the quality of services because business stealing incentives induce platforms to increase addictiveness. Restricting consumers' platform usage may decrease addictiveness and improve consumer welfare. A platform's ability to charge for its service can also decrease addictiveness.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261269
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: April 1, 2022
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2022, 16
    Schlagworte: Economic models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Household heterogeneity and the performance of monetary policy frameworks
    Autor*in: Djeutem, Edouard; He, Mario; Reza, Abeer; Zhang, Yang
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    We compare the performance of alternative monetary policy frameworks (inflation targeting, average inflation targeting, price level targeting and nominal GDP level targeting) in a tractable HANK model where incomplete financial markets and... mehr

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    We compare the performance of alternative monetary policy frameworks (inflation targeting, average inflation targeting, price level targeting and nominal GDP level targeting) in a tractable HANK model where incomplete financial markets and idiosyncratic earnings risk introduce precautionary savings and consumption inequality. Financial market incompleteness generates an additional source of societal welfare loss due to cyclical fluctuations in inequality on top of those from inflation and output volatility. We find that history-dependent policies are preferred in this framework. However, if central banks put a high weight on curbing inequality, AIT and IT can be preferred over PLT.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261265
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: March 8, 2022
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2022, 12
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy framework; Monetary policy transmission; Monetary policy anduncertainty; Economic models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Vertical bargaining and obfuscation
    Autor*in: Reshidi, Edona
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    Manufacturers often engage in practices that impede consumer search. Examples include proliferating product varieties, imposing vertical informational restraints, and banning online sales to make it more difficult for consumers to compare prices.... mehr

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    Manufacturers often engage in practices that impede consumer search. Examples include proliferating product varieties, imposing vertical informational restraints, and banning online sales to make it more difficult for consumers to compare prices. This paper models vertical bargaining over wholesale prices and obfuscation levels and finds that obfuscation arises in equilibrium whenever retailers have some bargaining power. Once the bargaining power rests with the manufacturer, the equilibrium involves no obfuscation. The final consumers, however, are worse off compared with settings when retailers have all the bargaining power. We show that in vertical markets, policies that impose caps on obfuscation may induce higher wholesale and retail prices. Instead, we propose caps on wholesale prices as an effective consumer protection policy.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261266
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: March 18, 2022
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2022, 13
    Schlagworte: Economic models; Market structure and pricing
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. A horse race of alternative monetary policy regimes under bounded rationality
    Autor*in: Wagner, Joel; Schlanger, Tudor; Zhang, Yang
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    We introduce bounded rationality, along the lines of Gabaix (2020), in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada's adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to provide a quantitative... mehr

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    We introduce bounded rationality, along the lines of Gabaix (2020), in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada's adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to provide a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic impact of flexible inflation targeting and some alternative monetary policy regimes. These alternative monetary policy regimes are average-inflation targeting, price-level targeting and nominal gross domestic product level targeting. We consider these regimes' performance with and without an effective lower bound constraint. Our results suggest that the performance of history-dependent frameworks is sensitive to departures from rational expectations. The benefits of adopting history-dependent frameworks over flexible inflation targeting gradually diminish with a greater degree of bounded rationality. This finding is in line with laboratory experiments that show flexible inflation targeting remains a robust framework to stabilize macroeconomic fluctuations

     
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    hdl: 10419/266065
    Schriftenreihe: Staff discussion paper / Bank of Canada ; 2022, 4
    Schlagworte: Central bank research; Economic models; Monetary policy framework; Monetary policy transmission
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Dynamic privacy choices
    Autor*in: Ichihashi, Shota
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    I study a dynamic model of consumer privacy and platform data collection. In each period, consumers choose their level of platform activity. Greater activity generates more information about the consumer, thereby increasing platform profits. When the... mehr

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    I study a dynamic model of consumer privacy and platform data collection. In each period, consumers choose their level of platform activity. Greater activity generates more information about the consumer, thereby increasing platform profits. When the platform can commit to the future privacy policy, it collects information by committing to gradually decrease the level of privacy protection. In the long run, consumers lose privacy and receive low payoffs but choose high activity levels. In contrast, the platform with weaker commitment power may attain the commitment outcome or fail to collect any data, depending on consumer expectations regarding future privacy protection.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261261
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: February 24, 2022
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2022, 8
    Schlagworte: Economic models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten)
  21. Central bank liquidity facilities and market making
    Autor*in: Cimon, David A.; Walton, Adrian
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    In the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, central banks purchased large volumes of assets in an effort to keep markets operational. We model one such central bank, which purchases assets from dealers to alleviate balance sheet constraints. Asset purchases... mehr

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    In the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, central banks purchased large volumes of assets in an effort to keep markets operational. We model one such central bank, which purchases assets from dealers to alleviate balance sheet constraints. Asset purchases can prevent market breakdown, improve price efficiency and reduce dealer risk positions. A central bank that purchases assets at their expected value is able to achieve market outcomes as if dealers were unconstrained. Absent other concerns, central banks can maximize welfare by purchasing assets at a premium, though they may create market distortions. Alternatively, central banks who bear costs associated with large interventions may only be willing to purchase assets at a discount. In the absence of leverage constraints, lending programs are as effective as asset purchases; when leverage constraints are present, lending programs lose effectiveness.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261262
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: March 4, 2022
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2022, 9
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Economic models; Financial institutions; Financialmarkets; Market structure and pricing
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. News-driven international credit cycles
    Autor*in: Ozhan, G. Kemal
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    How does news about future economic fundamentals affect within-country and cross-country credit allocation? How effective is unconventional policy when financial crises are driven by unfulfilled favorable news? I study these questions by employing a... mehr

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    How does news about future economic fundamentals affect within-country and cross-country credit allocation? How effective is unconventional policy when financial crises are driven by unfulfilled favorable news? I study these questions by employing a two-sector, two-country macroeconomic model with a financial sector in which financial crises are associated with occasionally binding leverage constraints. In response to positive news on the valuation of nontraded sector capital that turns out to be incorrect at a later date, the model captures the patterns of financial flows and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000-2010, including the changes in the sectoral allocation of bank credit and movements in cross-country borrowing during the boom and the bust. When there are unconventional policies by a common authority in response to unfulfilled favorable news, liquidity injections perform better in ameliorating the downturn than direct assets purchases from the non-traded sector.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261252
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: December 23, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 66
    Schlagworte: Credit and credit aggregates; Economic models; Financial stability; Sectoral balance sheet; Recent economic and financial developments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Transition scenarios for analyzing climate-related financial risk
    Autor*in: Chen, Henry; Ens, Erik; Gervais, Olivier; Hosseini, Hossein; Johnston, Craig; Kabaca, Serdar; Molico, Miguel; Paltsev, Sergey V.; Proulx, Alex; Toktamyssov, Argyn
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    In November 2020, the Bank of Canada launched a pilot project with the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions aimed at better understanding risks to the economy and the financial system related to climate change. Part of this work... mehr

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    In November 2020, the Bank of Canada launched a pilot project with the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions aimed at better understanding risks to the economy and the financial system related to climate change. Part of this work included developing a set of Canada-relevant climate transition scenarios that explore pathways consistent with achieving certain climate targets. The scenarios vary in terms of two key drivers of climate transition risk: (i) the ambition and timing of climate policy and (ii) the pace of technological change and availability of advanced technologies. To develop the scenarios, we used a suite-of-models approach that linked a computable general equilibrium energy-economy model with two macroeconomic models. The scenarios focus on Canada and the United States because of the material exposure of the Canadian financial sector to these regions. They capture the evolution of the global economy, summarized across 10 emissions-intensive sectors of the economy and across 8 distinct regions of the world. The analysis illustrated the important sectoral restructuring the Canadian and global economies may need to undertake to meet climate targets. The analysis showed that every sector contributes to the transition and that the financial impacts vary across sectors. These impacts depend on how the sectors are impacted by emissions and capital expenditures costs and on how the demand for their products is affected by the decarbonization of economies. The scenarios also shed light on the risks of significant macroeconomic impacts, in particular for commodity-exporting countries like Canada. The economic impacts for Canada are driven mostly by declines in global prices of commodities rather than by domestic policy decisions. Finally, the analysis showed that delaying climate policy action increases the overall economic impacts and risks to financial stability

     
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    hdl: 10419/251031
    Schriftenreihe: Staff discussion paper / Bank of Canada ; 2022, 1
    Schlagworte: Climate change; Economic models; Financial stability; International topics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Heterogeneity and monetary policy
    a thematic review
    Autor*in: Alves, Felipe; Bustamante, Christian; Guo, Xing; Kartashova, Katya; Lee, Soyoung; Pugh, Thomas; See, Kurt; Terajima, Yaz; Ueberfeldt, Alexander
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    The heterogeneity of businesses and households impacts aggregate economic fluctuations and, in turn, is shaped by aggregate fluctuations. This view has emerged over the last decade with strong implications for the transmission and conduct of monetary... mehr

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    The heterogeneity of businesses and households impacts aggregate economic fluctuations and, in turn, is shaped by aggregate fluctuations. This view has emerged over the last decade with strong implications for the transmission and conduct of monetary policy. Our thematic review focuses on key aspects of this new theory as well as its underlying assumptions. We place the insights in a Canadian context using relevant microeconomic and macroeconomic data.

     
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    hdl: 10419/251032
    Schriftenreihe: Staff discussion paper / Bank of Canada ; 2022, 2
    Schlagworte: Economic models; Monetary policy transmission; Monetary policy and uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Windfall income shocks with finite planning horizons
    Autor*in: Boutros, Michael
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    How do households respond to unanticipated income shocks? I build and estimate a quantitative model of bounded rationality in which reoptimization is costly. Households respond to windfall income shocks by choosing a finite planning horizon over... mehr

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    How do households respond to unanticipated income shocks? I build and estimate a quantitative model of bounded rationality in which reoptimization is costly. Households respond to windfall income shocks by choosing a finite planning horizon over which to reoptimize. The optimal horizon is increasing in income, wealth, and the magnitude of the income shock. In the estimated model, the distribution of consumption responses is consistent with two motivating facts: highly liquid households have large consumption responses out of income shocks that cannot be driven by borrowing constraints, and larger income shocks induce smaller consumption responses.

     
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    hdl: 10419/272984
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: September 20, 2022
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2022, 40
    Schlagworte: Economic models; Fiscal policy; Domestic demand and components
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen