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  1. Is there a one-size-fits-all approach to inclusive growth?
    a case study analysis
    Autor*in: Balasubramanian, Sriram; Bounader, Lahcen; Bricco, Jana; Vasilʹev, D. S.
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Is there a one-size-fits-all approach to inclusive growth? We look at four key case studies across advanced and emerging markets-the Nordics, India, Brazil, and Egypt-to try to answer this question. We highlight qualitatively in these countries the... mehr

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    Is there a one-size-fits-all approach to inclusive growth? We look at four key case studies across advanced and emerging markets-the Nordics, India, Brazil, and Egypt-to try to answer this question. We highlight qualitatively in these countries the key components of inclusive growth models, outcomes from these models, and the road ahead in the respective countries. Some of the analysis focuses on co-operative labor markets in the Nordics, direct benefit transfers in India, the role of social assistance and commodity boom in Brazil, and the inequality puzzle in Egypt. The paper finds that there is a lack of homogeneity among the approaches by these countries and identifies the need for customized solutions to inclusive growth. A one-size-fits-all approach doesn't seem to work. The more customized the inclusive growth model, the better the overall outcome

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513582368
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 111
    Schlagworte: employment; inclusive growth; inequality; macroeconomic policy; macro-structural policies; poverty; social assistance; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. How do climate shocks affect the impact of FDI, ODA and remittances on economic growth?
    Autor*in: Drabo, Alassane
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The three main financial inflows to developing countries have largely increased during the last two decades, despite the large debate in the literature regarding their effects on economic growth which is not yet clear-cut. An emerging literature... mehr

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    The three main financial inflows to developing countries have largely increased during the last two decades, despite the large debate in the literature regarding their effects on economic growth which is not yet clear-cut. An emerging literature investigates the dependence of their effects on some country characteristics such as human and physical capital constraint, macroeconomic policy and institutional capacity. This paper extends the literature by arguing that climate shocks may undermine the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), official development assistance (ODA) and migrants' remittances on economic expansion. Based on neoclassical growth framework, the theoretical model indicates that FDI, ODA, and remittances improve economic growth, and the size of the effect increases with good absorptive capacity. However, climate shocks reduce this positive effect of financial flows in developing countries. Using a sample of low and middle-income countries from 1995 to 2018, the empirical investigation confirms the theoretical conclusions. Developing countries should build strong resilience to climate change. Actions are also needed at global level to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, and build strong structural resilience to climate shocks especially in developing countries

     
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    ISBN: 9781513585635
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 193
    Schlagworte: Financial flows; Climate shock; economic growth; absorptive capacity; Climate; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; Environmental Economics; International Finance; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. A proposal to end the COVID-19 pandemic
    Autor*in: Agarwal, Ruchir; Gopinath, Gita
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Urgent steps are needed to arrest the rising human toll and economic strain from the COVID-19 pandemic that are exacerbating already-diverging recoveries. Pandemic policy is also economic policy as there is no durable end to the economic crisis... mehr

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    Urgent steps are needed to arrest the rising human toll and economic strain from the COVID-19 pandemic that are exacerbating already-diverging recoveries. Pandemic policy is also economic policy as there is no durable end to the economic crisis without an end to the health crisis. Building on existing initiatives, this paper proposes pragmatic actions at the national and multilateral level to expeditiously defeat the pandemic. The proposal targets: (1) vaccinating at least 40 percent of the population in all countries by the end of 2021 and at least 60 percent by the first half of 2022, (2) tracking and insuring against downside risks, and (3) ensuring widespread testing and tracing, maintaining adequate stocks of therapeutics, and enforcing public health measures in places where vaccine coverage is low. The benefits of such measures at about USD 9 trillion far outweigh the costs which are estimated to be around USD 50 billion-of which USD 35 billion should be paid by grants from donors and the residual by national governments potentially with the support of concessional financing from bilateral and multilateral agencies. The grant funding gap identified by the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator amounts to about USD 22 billion, which the G20 recognizes as important to address. This leaves an estimated USD 13 billion in additional grant contributions needed to finance our proposal. Importantly, the strategy requires global cooperation to secure upfront financing, upfront vaccine donations, and at-risk investment to insure against downside risks for the world

     
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF staff discussion note ; SDN/2021, 004 (May 2021)
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; pandemic; economic crisis; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; Health; Publicly Provided Goods
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. A New Interpretation of Productivity Growth Dynamics in the Pre-Pandemic and Pandemic Era U.S. Economy, 1950-2022
    Autor*in: Gordon, Robert J.; Sayed, Hassan
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The dismal decade of 2010-19 recorded the slowest productivity growth of any decade in U.S. history, only 1.1 percent per year in the business sector. Yet the pandemic appears to have created a resurgence in productivity growth with a 4.1 percent... mehr

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    The dismal decade of 2010-19 recorded the slowest productivity growth of any decade in U.S. history, only 1.1 percent per year in the business sector. Yet the pandemic appears to have created a resurgence in productivity growth with a 4.1 percent rate achieved in the four quarters of 2020. This paper provides a unified framework that explains productivity growth in both the pre-pandemic and pandemic-era U.S. economy. The key insight is that in their panicked reaction to the collapse of output in the 2008-09 recession, business firms overreacted with "excess layoffs," adjusting hours to the output decline with a far higher elasticity than normal. Our regression analysis, which allows post-recession rehiring that gradually unwinds the excess layoffs, explains why productivity growth was countercyclical in 2009 and why it was so slow in 2010-16 as rehiring boosted hours growth. Post-sample simulations explain why productivity growth was so high in 2020 and why it fell to only 0.6 percent in the five quarters of 2021-22. The paper includes implications for the future long-term evolution of productivity growth in the business sector and total economy. A new data file on quarterly productivity levels and changes for 17 industries provides new perspectives for 2006-22 and particularly for the nine pandemic quarters of 2020-22. Positive pandemic-era productivity growth can be entirely explained by a surge in the performance of work-from-home service industries, while goods industries soared and then slumped, while contact services recorded strongly negative productivity growth throughout 2020-22

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30267
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftswachstum; Produktivität; Coronavirus; Epidemie; USA; Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  5. Investing with the Government
    A Field Experiment in China
    Autor*in: Colonnelli, Emanuele; Li, Bo; Liu, Ernest
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study the demand for government participation in China's venture capital and private equity market. We conduct a large-scale, non-deceptive field experiment in collaboration with the leading industry service provider, through which we survey both... mehr

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    We study the demand for government participation in China's venture capital and private equity market. We conduct a large-scale, non-deceptive field experiment in collaboration with the leading industry service provider, through which we survey both sides of the market: the capital investors and the private firms managing the invested capital by deploying it to high-growth entrepreneurs. Our respondents together account for nearly $1 trillion in assets under management. Each respondent evaluates synthetic profiles of potential investment partners, whose characteristics we randomize, under the real-stakes incentive that they will be introduced to real partners matching their preferences. Our main result is that the average firm dislikes investors with government ties, indicating that the benefits of political connections are small compared to the cons of having the government as an investor. We show that such dislike is not present with government-owned firms, and this dislike is highest with best-performing firms. Additional results and follow-up surveys suggest political interference in decision-making is the leading mechanism why government capital is unattractive to private firms. We feed our experimental estimates and administrative data into a simple model of two-sided search to discuss the distributional effects of government participation. Overall, our findings point to a "grabbing hand" interpretation of state-firm relationships reflecting a desire by the government to keep control over the private sector

     
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  6. A Framework for Economic Growth with Capital-Embodied Technical Change
    Autor*in: Jones, Benjamin F.; Liu, Xiaojie
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Technological advance is often embodied in capital inputs. This paper develops a model where capital innovations occur on two margins: (1) vertically, where a capital input becomes more productive at a given task; and (2) horizontally, where a... mehr

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    Technological advance is often embodied in capital inputs. This paper develops a model where capital innovations occur on two margins: (1) vertically, where a capital input becomes more productive at a given task; and (2) horizontally, where a capital input replaces labor at a given task. These two forms of technological advance engage in a macroeconomic "tug of war" when capital and labor have less than a unitary elasticity of substitution, and the resulting framework can meet numerous macroeconomic regularities. First, it can produce a balanced growth path and satisfy the Uzawa Growth Theorem--even though all technological progress occurs in capital inputs. Second, it can produce intuitive macroeconomic dynamics, adding perspectives on the apparent productivity slowdown and declining labor share of income. Third, it can produce rich industry dynamics and inform structural change, including declining GDP shares of agriculture and manufacturing, sectoral bottlenecks, the role of general purpose technologies, and the limited macroeconomic impacts of computing. Overall, this tractable framework can help resolve puzzling tensions between micro-level observations of technological advance and macroeconomic features of economic growth

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30459
    Schlagworte: Technischer Fortschritt; Wirtschaftswachstum; Endogenes Wachstumsmodell; Wachstumstheorie; Economic Development; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  7. Global Knowledge and Trade Flows
    Theory and Measurement
    Autor*in: Lind, Nelson; Ramondo, Natalia
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study the global innovation and diffusion of ideas by introducing trade into the model in Eaton and Kortum (1999) (EK). This extension allows us to use international trade flows and country-level factor costs to estimate both the intensity of... mehr

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    We study the global innovation and diffusion of ideas by introducing trade into the model in Eaton and Kortum (1999) (EK). This extension allows us to use international trade flows and country-level factor costs to estimate both the intensity of innovation within countries over time and diffusion rates across countries. We find significant specialization across the globe: some countries have high innovation rates, while other countries rely on diffusion. Although innovation is correlated with economic growth, there are many high income countries that primarily produce using diffused ideas. Additionally, these patterns shift over time -- we estimate that a wave of innovation began in China during the early-2000's, reducing its reliance on diffused technology

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30590
    Schlagworte: Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen; Innovation; Innovationsdiffusion; Wirtschaftswachstum; Internationale Wirtschaft; Trade; Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  8. The Missing Middle Managers
    Labor Costs, Firm Structure, and Development
    Autor*in: Hjort, Jonas; Malmberg, Hannes; Schoellman, Todd
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper shows that large, multi-establishment business enterprises face a high cost of middle management in poor countries and that this cost inhibits the growth of the modern sector. We provide new empirical evidence using a database covering... mehr

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    This paper shows that large, multi-establishment business enterprises face a high cost of middle management in poor countries and that this cost inhibits the growth of the modern sector. We provide new empirical evidence using a database covering compensation for 300,000 middle managers working at modern firms in 146 countries. We estimate that the elasticity of real management costs with respect to real GDP per worker is 0.1. We quantify the importance of this finding using a calibrated appropriate technology model where firms choose whether to adopt the management-intensive modern business structure. Lower management costs in developing countries would increase the revenue share of the modern sector by 10-20 percentage points

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30592
    Schlagworte: Arbeitskosten; Mittleres Management; Organisationsstruktur; Entwicklung; Entwicklungsländer; Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs; Production Management; Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  9. The Social Tax
    Redistributive Pressure and Labor Supply
    Autor*in: Carranza Noguera, Eliana; Donald, Aletheia; Grosset, Florian; Kaur, Supreet
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    In low-income communities, pressure to share income with others may disincentivize work, distorting labor supply. We document that across countries, social groups that undertake more interpersonal transfers work fewer hours. Using a field experiment,... mehr

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    In low-income communities, pressure to share income with others may disincentivize work, distorting labor supply. We document that across countries, social groups that undertake more interpersonal transfers work fewer hours. Using a field experiment, we enable piece-rate factory workers in Côte d'Ivoire to shield income using blocked savings accounts over 3-9 months. Workers may only deposit earnings increases, relative to baseline, mitigating income effects on labor supply. We vary whether the offered account is private or known to the worker's network, altering the likelihood of transfer requests against saved income. When accounts are private, take-up is substantively higher (60% vs. 14%). Offering private accounts sharply increases labor supply--raising work attendance by 10% and earnings by 11%. Outgoing transfers do not decline, indicating no loss in redistribution. Our estimates imply a 9-14% social tax rate. The welfare benefits of informal redistribution may come at a cost, depressing labor supply and productivity

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30438
    Schlagworte: Einkommensteuer; Umverteilung; Arbeitsangebot; Elfenbeinküste; General; General; Economic Development; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; Africa
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  10. The Characteristics and Geographic Distribution of Robot Hubs in U.S. Manufacturing Establishments
    Autor*in: Brynjolfsson, Erik; Buffington, Catherine; Goldschlag, Nathan; Li, J. Frank; Miranda, Javier; Seamans, Robert
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We use data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures to study the characteristics and geography of investments in robots across U.S. manufacturing establishments. We find that robotics adoption and robot intensity (the number of robots per employee) is... mehr

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    We use data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures to study the characteristics and geography of investments in robots across U.S. manufacturing establishments. We find that robotics adoption and robot intensity (the number of robots per employee) is much more strongly related to establishment size than age. We find that establishments that report having robotics have higher capital expenditures, including higher information technology (IT) capital expenditures. Also, establishments are more likely to have robotics if other establishments in the same Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and industry also report having robotics. The distribution of robots is highly skewed across establishments' locations. Some locations, which we call Robot Hubs, have far more robots than one would expect even after accounting for industry and manufacturing employment. We characterize these Robot Hubs along several industry, demographic, and institutional dimensions. The presence of robot integrators and higher levels of union membership are positively correlated with being a Robot Hub

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31062
    Schlagworte: Industrie; Roboter; Investition; Automatisierte Produktion; Räumliche Verteilung; Technologiepark; USA; Other Machinery; Business Equipment; Armaments; Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital; Open Innovation; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  11. Where Have All the "Creative Talents" Gone? Employment Dynamics of US Inventors
    Autor*in: Akcigit, Ufuk; Goldschlag, Nathan
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    How are inventors allocated in the US economy and does that allocation affect innovative capacity? To answer these questions, we first build a model of creative destruction where an inventor with a new idea has the possibility to work for an entrant... mehr

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    How are inventors allocated in the US economy and does that allocation affect innovative capacity? To answer these questions, we first build a model of creative destruction where an inventor with a new idea has the possibility to work for an entrant or incumbent firm. If the inventor works for the entrant the innovation is implemented and the entrant displaces the incumbent firm. Strategic considerations encourage the incumbent to hire the inventor, offering higher wages, and then not implement the inventor's idea. To test this prediction, we combine data on the employment history of over 760 thousand U.S. inventors with information on jobs from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Program at the U.S. Census Bureau. Our results show that (i) inventors are increasingly concentrated in large incumbents, less likely to work for young firms, and less likely to become entrepreneurs, and (ii) when an inventor is hired by an incumbent, compared to a young firm, their earnings increases by 12.6 percent and their innovative output declines by 6 to 11 percent. We also show that these patterns are robust and not driven by life cycle effects or occupational composition effects

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31085
    Schlagworte: Erfindung; Arbeitsmobilität; Innovation; Personalbeschaffung; Schöpferische Zerstörung; USA; Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  12. Measuring the Characteristics and Employment Dynamics of U.S. Inventors
    Autor*in: Akcigit, Ufuk; Goldschlag, Nathan
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Innovation is a key driver of long run economic growth. Studying innovation requires a clear view of the characteristics and behavior of the individuals that create new ideas. A general lack of rich, large-scale data has constrained such analyses. We... mehr

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    Innovation is a key driver of long run economic growth. Studying innovation requires a clear view of the characteristics and behavior of the individuals that create new ideas. A general lack of rich, large-scale data has constrained such analyses. We address this by introducing a new dataset linking patent inventors to survey, census, and administrative microdata at the U.S. Census Bureau. We use this data to provide a first look at the demographic characteristics, employer characteristics, earnings, and employment dynamics of inventors. These linkages, which will be available to researchers with approved access, dramatically increases the scope of what can be learned about inventors and innovative activity

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31086
    Schlagworte: Erfindung; Erwerbstätigkeit; Datenerhebung; Volkszählung; Wirtschaftswachstum; USA; Erfinder; Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  13. Growth and Risk
    A View from International Trade
    Autor*in: Krishna, Pravin; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Ma, Lin; Maloney, William F.
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper studies the cross-country patterns of risky innovation and growth through the lens of international trade. We use a simple theoretical framework of risky quality upgrading by firms under varying levels of financial development to derive... mehr

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    This paper studies the cross-country patterns of risky innovation and growth through the lens of international trade. We use a simple theoretical framework of risky quality upgrading by firms under varying levels of financial development to derive two predictions. First, the mean rate of quality growth and the corresponding cross-sectional variance of quality growth in a country are positively correlated. Second, both the mean and variance of quality changes are positively correlated with the country's level of financial development. We then test these two hypotheses using data on disaggregated (HS10) bilateral exports to the United States. The patterns in the data are consistent with the theory. The mean and the variance of quality growth are strongly positively correlated with each other. Countries with greater financial depth are systematically characterized by higher mean and higher variance in the growth of product quality. Our findings suggest a mean-variance trade-off in product quality improvements along the development path. Increases in financial depth do not imply lower variability of changes in the product space

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30915
    Schlagworte: Produktqualität; Produktion; Export; Risiko; Finanzmarkt; Wirtschaftswachstum; Außenhandel; Theorie; Empirical Studies of Trade; Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  14. Similarities and Differences in the Adoption of General Purpose Technologies
    Autor*in: Agrawal, Ajay; Gans, Joshua; Goldfarb, Avi
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Economic models provide little insight into when the next big idea and its associated productivity dividend will come along. Once a general purpose technology (GPT) is identified, the economist's toolkit does provide an understanding when firms will... mehr

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    Economic models provide little insight into when the next big idea and its associated productivity dividend will come along. Once a general purpose technology (GPT) is identified, the economist's toolkit does provide an understanding when firms will adopt a new technology and for what purpose. The focus of the literature has been on commonalities across each type of GPT. This focus is natural, given that the goal of the literature has been to identify generalizable insights across technologies. Broadly, this literature emphasizes heterogeneity in co-invention costs across firms. Each GPT, however, provides a distinct benefit. Steam provided a new power source. The internet facilitated communication. The differences between GPTs are important for understanding adoption patterns. Using the examples of the internet and artificial intelligence, we discuss how both co-invention costs and distinct benefits determine the adoption of technology. For both technologies, we demonstrate that discussions of the impact of a GPT on productivity and growth need to emphasize the benefits as well as the costs. The goal of this paper is therefore to link the literature on co-invention costs with an understanding of the distinct benefits of each GPT

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30976
    Schlagworte: Technischer Fortschritt; Internet; Künstliche Intelligenz; Innovationsakzeptanz; Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse; Theorie; Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  15. Distortions, Producer Dynamics, and Aggregate Productivity
    A General Equilibrium Analysis
    Autor*in: Ayerst, Stephen; Brandt, Loren; Restuccia, Diego
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The expansion in farm size is an important contributor to agricultural productivity in developed countries, but the reallocation process is hindered in less developed economies. How do distortions to factor reallocation affect farm dynamics and... mehr

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    The expansion in farm size is an important contributor to agricultural productivity in developed countries, but the reallocation process is hindered in less developed economies. How do distortions to factor reallocation affect farm dynamics and agricultural productivity? We develop a model of heterogeneous farms making cropping choices and investing in productivity improvements. We calibrate the model using detailed farm-level panel data from Vietnam, exploiting regional differences in agricultural institutions and outcomes. We focus on south Vietnam and quantify the effect of higher measured distortions in the North on farm choices and agricultural productivity. We find that the higher distortions in north Vietnam reduce agricultural productivity by 46%, accounting for around 70% of the observed 2.5-fold difference between regions. Moreover, two-thirds of the productivity loss is driven by farms' choice of lower productivity crops and reductions in productivity-enhancing investment, which more than doubles the productivity loss from factor misallocation

     
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  16. Has China's Growth Gone From Miracle to Malady?
    Autor*in: Prasad, Eswar S.
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    China's remarkable run of persistently high growth in recent decades is all the more stunning in light of the country's low levels of financial and institutional development, state-dominated economy, and nondemocratic government. Notwithstanding the... mehr

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    China's remarkable run of persistently high growth in recent decades is all the more stunning in light of the country's low levels of financial and institutional development, state-dominated economy, and nondemocratic government. Notwithstanding the inefficient and risky growth model, the government has maneuvered the economy around various stresses without any major financial or economic crash. With a shrinking labor force and declining efficiency of investment, raising productivity growth is key to maintaining reasonable GDP growth. Unbalanced reforms, a schizophrenic approach to the role of the market versus the state, and strains in financial and property markets could result in significant volatility but a financial or economic collapse is not in the cards

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31151
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftswachstum; Finanzkrise; Produktivität; Alternde Bevölkerung; Wirtschaftspolitik; China; Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy; International Finance; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; Asia including Middle East
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  17. Supplier Churn and Growth
    A Micro-to-Macro Analysis
    Autor*in: Baqaee, David; Burstein, Ariel T.; Duprez, Cédric; Farhi, Emmanuel
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We investigate the effects of input variety creation and destruction on both micro- and macroeconomic outcomes using detailed data from Belgium. We estimate that marginal costs rise by 0.6% for every 1% of suppliers lost. We show that this elasticity... mehr

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    We investigate the effects of input variety creation and destruction on both micro- and macroeconomic outcomes using detailed data from Belgium. We estimate that marginal costs rise by 0.6% for every 1% of suppliers lost. We show that this elasticity measures the area under the input demand curve relative to expenditures, and can be used to calibrate love-of-variety and quality-ladder models. We also develop a macroeconomic growth-accounting framework that quantifies the importance of supply chain churn for aggregate growth. Using firm-level production network data and estimated microeconomic elasticities, we show that supplier churn can plausibly account for a large portion of the trend component of growth in aggregate productivity. Our findings highlight the crucial role of input entry and exit in driving economic growth

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31231
    Schlagworte: Lieferkette; Lieferantenmanagement; Wirtschaftswachstum; General; General; General; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  18. Is there a one-size-fits-all approach to inclusive growth?
    a case study analysis
    Autor*in: Balasubramanian, Sriram; Bounader, Lahcen; Bricco, Jana; Vasilʹev, D. S.
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Is there a one-size-fits-all approach to inclusive growth? We look at four key case studies across advanced and emerging markets-the Nordics, India, Brazil, and Egypt-to try to answer this question. We highlight qualitatively in these countries the... mehr

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    Is there a one-size-fits-all approach to inclusive growth? We look at four key case studies across advanced and emerging markets-the Nordics, India, Brazil, and Egypt-to try to answer this question. We highlight qualitatively in these countries the key components of inclusive growth models, outcomes from these models, and the road ahead in the respective countries. Some of the analysis focuses on co-operative labor markets in the Nordics, direct benefit transfers in India, the role of social assistance and commodity boom in Brazil, and the inequality puzzle in Egypt. The paper finds that there is a lack of homogeneity among the approaches by these countries and identifies the need for customized solutions to inclusive growth. A one-size-fits-all approach doesn't seem to work. The more customized the inclusive growth model, the better the overall outcome

     
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    ISBN: 9781513582368
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 111
    Schlagworte: employment; inclusive growth; inequality; macroeconomic policy; macro-structural policies; poverty; social assistance; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
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  19. How do climate shocks affect the impact of FDI, ODA and remittances on economic growth?
    Autor*in: Drabo, Alassane
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The three main financial inflows to developing countries have largely increased during the last two decades, despite the large debate in the literature regarding their effects on economic growth which is not yet clear-cut. An emerging literature... mehr

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    The three main financial inflows to developing countries have largely increased during the last two decades, despite the large debate in the literature regarding their effects on economic growth which is not yet clear-cut. An emerging literature investigates the dependence of their effects on some country characteristics such as human and physical capital constraint, macroeconomic policy and institutional capacity. This paper extends the literature by arguing that climate shocks may undermine the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), official development assistance (ODA) and migrants' remittances on economic expansion. Based on neoclassical growth framework, the theoretical model indicates that FDI, ODA, and remittances improve economic growth, and the size of the effect increases with good absorptive capacity. However, climate shocks reduce this positive effect of financial flows in developing countries. Using a sample of low and middle-income countries from 1995 to 2018, the empirical investigation confirms the theoretical conclusions. Developing countries should build strong resilience to climate change. Actions are also needed at global level to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, and build strong structural resilience to climate shocks especially in developing countries

     
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    ISBN: 9781513585635
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 193
    Schlagworte: Financial flows; Climate shock; economic growth; absorptive capacity; Climate; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; Environmental Economics; International Finance; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. The Digital Welfare of Nations
    New Measures of Welfare Gains and Inequality
    Autor*in: Brynjolfsson, Erik; Collis, Avinash; Liaqat, Asad; Kutzman, Daley; Garro, Haritz; Deisenroth, Daniel; Wernerfelt, Nils; Lee, Jae Joon
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Digital goods can generate large benefits for consumers, but these benefits are largely unmeasured in the national accounts, including GDP and productivity. In this paper, we measure welfare gains from 10 popular digital goods across 13 countries by... mehr

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    Digital goods can generate large benefits for consumers, but these benefits are largely unmeasured in the national accounts, including GDP and productivity. In this paper, we measure welfare gains from 10 popular digital goods across 13 countries by conducting large-scale incentivized online choice experiments on representative samples of nearly 40,000 people. We estimate that these goods--many of which are free to users--generate over $2.5 trillion in aggregate consumer welfare across these countries per year, which is roughly equivalent to 6% of their combined GDP. We find that lower-income individuals and lower-income countries obtain relatively larger welfare gains from these goods compared to higher-income individuals and countries. This suggests that digital goods may reduce inequality in welfare within and across countries by disproportionately benefiting lower-income groups

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31670
    Schlagworte: Digitale Güter; Messung; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung; Experiment; Digitale Dienste; Social Web; Digitalökonomie; Wirtschaftsstatistik; Welt; General; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  21. A proposal to end the COVID-19 pandemic
    Autor*in: Agarwal, Ruchir; Gopinath, Gita
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Urgent steps are needed to arrest the rising human toll and economic strain from the COVID-19 pandemic that are exacerbating already-diverging recoveries. Pandemic policy is also economic policy as there is no durable end to the economic crisis... mehr

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    Urgent steps are needed to arrest the rising human toll and economic strain from the COVID-19 pandemic that are exacerbating already-diverging recoveries. Pandemic policy is also economic policy as there is no durable end to the economic crisis without an end to the health crisis. Building on existing initiatives, this paper proposes pragmatic actions at the national and multilateral level to expeditiously defeat the pandemic. The proposal targets: (1) vaccinating at least 40 percent of the population in all countries by the end of 2021 and at least 60 percent by the first half of 2022, (2) tracking and insuring against downside risks, and (3) ensuring widespread testing and tracing, maintaining adequate stocks of therapeutics, and enforcing public health measures in places where vaccine coverage is low. The benefits of such measures at about USD 9 trillion far outweigh the costs which are estimated to be around USD 50 billion-of which USD 35 billion should be paid by grants from donors and the residual by national governments potentially with the support of concessional financing from bilateral and multilateral agencies. The grant funding gap identified by the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator amounts to about USD 22 billion, which the G20 recognizes as important to address. This leaves an estimated USD 13 billion in additional grant contributions needed to finance our proposal. Importantly, the strategy requires global cooperation to secure upfront financing, upfront vaccine donations, and at-risk investment to insure against downside risks for the world

     
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    ISBN: 9781513577609
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF staff discussion note ; SDN/2021, 004 (May 2021)
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; pandemic; economic crisis; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; Health; Publicly Provided Goods
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  22. Committing to Grow
    Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany
    Autor*in: Akcigit, Ufuk; Alp, Harun; Diegmann, André; Serrano-Velarde, Nicolas
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper investigates a unique policy designed to maintain employment during the privatization of East German firms after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The policy required new owners of the firms to commit to employment targets, with penalties for... mehr

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    This paper investigates a unique policy designed to maintain employment during the privatization of East German firms after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The policy required new owners of the firms to commit to employment targets, with penalties for non-compliance. Using a dynamic model, we highlight three channels through which employment targets impact firms: distorted employment decisions, increased productivity, and higher exit rates. Our empirical analysis, using a novel dataset and instrumental variable approach, confirms these findings. We estimate a 22% points higher annual employment growth rate, a 14% points higher annual productivity growth, and a 3.6% points higher probability of exit for firms with binding employment targets. Our calibrated model further demonstrates that without these targets, aggregate employment would have been 15% lower after 10 years. Additionally, an alternative policy of productivity investment subsidies proved costly and less effective in the short term

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31645
    Schlagworte: Nationale Einheit; Privatisierung; Industriepolitik; Arbeitsmarktpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Beschäftigungseffekt; Produktivitätsentwicklung; Unternehmenserfolg; Endogenes Wachstumsmodell; Ostdeutschland; Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis; Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity; Labor Economics Policies; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  23. The Outlook for Long-Term Economic Growth
    Autor*in: Jones, Charles I.
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    What are the prospects for economic growth in the United States and other advanced countries over the next several decades? U.S. growth for the past 150 years has been surprisingly stable at 2% per year. Growth theory reveals that in the long run,... mehr

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    What are the prospects for economic growth in the United States and other advanced countries over the next several decades? U.S. growth for the past 150 years has been surprisingly stable at 2% per year. Growth theory reveals that in the long run, growth in living standards is determined by growth in the worldwide number of people searching for ideas. At the same time, a growth accounting exercise for the United States since the 1950s suggests that many other factors have temporarily contributed to growth, including rising educational attainment and a rising investment rate in ideas. But these forces are inherently temporary, implying that growth rates could slow in the future. This prediction is reinforced by declining population growth throughout the world. In contrast, other forces could potentially sustain or even increase growth. The emergence of countries such as China and India provides large numbers of people who could search for ideas. Improvements in the allocation of talent --- for example, the rise of women inventors --- and increased automation through artificial intelligence are other potential tailwinds

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31648
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftswachstum; Wirtschaftsprognose; USA; Industrieländer; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  24. Economic Growth under Transformative AI
    Autor*in: Trammell, Philip; Korinek, Anton
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Industrialized countries have long seen relatively stable growth in output per capita and a stable labor share. AI may be transformative, in the sense that it may break one or both of these stylized facts. This review outlines the ways this may... mehr

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    Industrialized countries have long seen relatively stable growth in output per capita and a stable labor share. AI may be transformative, in the sense that it may break one or both of these stylized facts. This review outlines the ways this may happen by placing several strands of the literature on AI and growth within a common framework. We first evaluate models in which AI increases output production, for example via increases in capital's substitutability for labor or task automation, capturing the notion that AI will let capital "self-replicate". This typically speeds up growth and lowers the labor share. We then consider models in which AI increases knowledge production, capturing the notion that AI will let capital "self-improve", speeding growth further. Taken as a whole, the literature suggests that sufficiently advanced AI is likely to deliver both effects

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31815
    Schlagworte: Künstliche Intelligenz; Produktivitätsentwicklung; Wirtschaftswachstum; Technischer Fortschritt; Faktorsubstitution; Wachstumstheorie; Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy; Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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  25. Institutions, Comparative Advantage, and the Environment
    Autor*in: Shapiro, Joseph S.
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper proposes that strong financial, judicial, and labor market institutions provide comparative advantage in clean industries, and thereby improve a country's environmental quality. Five complementary tests support this hypothesis. First,... mehr

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    This paper proposes that strong financial, judicial, and labor market institutions provide comparative advantage in clean industries, and thereby improve a country's environmental quality. Five complementary tests support this hypothesis. First, industries that depend on institutions are disproportionately clean. Second, strong institutions increase relative exports in clean industries, even conditional on environmental regulation and factor endowments. Third, an industry's complexity helps explain the link between institutions and clean goods. Fourth, a quantitative general equilibrium model indicates that strengthening a country's institutions decreases its pollution through relocating dirty industries abroad, though increases pollution in other countries. Fifth, cross-country differences in the composition of output between clean and dirty industries explain more of the global distribution of emissions than differences in the techniques used for production do. The comparative advantage that strong institutions provide in clean industries gives one under-explored reason why developing countries have relatively high pollution levels

     
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