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  1. The Marginal Propensity to Consume in Heterogeneous Agent Models
    Autor*in: Kaplan, Greg; Violante, Giovanni L.
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    What model features and calibration strategies yield a large average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) in heterogeneous agent models? Through a systematic investigation of models with different preferences, dimensions of ex-ante heterogeneity,... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    What model features and calibration strategies yield a large average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) in heterogeneous agent models? Through a systematic investigation of models with different preferences, dimensions of ex-ante heterogeneity, income processes and asset structure, we show that the most important factor is the share and type of hand-to-mouth households. One-asset models either feature a trade-off between a high average MPC and a realistic level of aggregate wealth, or generate an excessively polarized wealth distribution that vastly understates the wealth held by households in the middle of the distribution. Two-asset models that include both liquid and illiquid assets can resolve this tension with a large enough gap between liquid and illiquid returns. We discuss how such return differential can be justified from the perspective of theory and data

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30013
    Schlagworte: Konsumentenverhalten; Privater Konsum; Sparen; Einkommenshypothese; Agentenbasierte Modellierung; Konsumtheorie; Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving; Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions; Incomplete Markets; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Fiscal Policy; Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy; Household Saving, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
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  2. Liquidity Traps, Prudential Policies, and International Spillovers
    Autor*in: Bianchi, Javier; Coulibaly, Louphou
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper studies the transmission channels of monetary and macroprudential policies in an open economy framework and evaluates the normative implications for international spillovers and global welfare. An analytical decomposition uncovers the... mehr

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    This paper studies the transmission channels of monetary and macroprudential policies in an open economy framework and evaluates the normative implications for international spillovers and global welfare. An analytical decomposition uncovers the prominent role of expenditure switching for monetary policy, while macroprudential policy operates primarily through intertemporal substitution. We show that the risk of a liquidity trap generates a monetary policy tradeoff between stabilizing current output and containing capital inflows to lower the likelihood of a future recession, but leaning against the wind is not necessarily optimal. Finally, contrary to emerging policy concerns, capital controls can enhance global stability

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30038
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitische Transmission; Finanzmarktaufsicht; Spillover-Effekt; Leistungsbilanz; Liquiditätspräferenz; Internationaler Finanzmarkt; Offene Volkswirtschaft; Welt; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Production; Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Current Account Adjustment; Short-Term Capital Movements
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  3. Comparing Past and Present Inflation
    Autor*in: Bolhuis, Marijn A.; Cramer, Judd N. L.; Summers, Lawrence Henry
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better... mehr

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    There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, we find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular, the rate of core CPI disinflation caused by Volcker-era policies is significantly lower when measured using today's treatment of housing: only 5 percentage points of decline instead of 11 percentage points in the official CPI statistics. To return to 2 percent core CPI inflation today will thus require nearly the same amount of disinflation as achieved under Chairman Volcker

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30116
    Schlagworte: Verbraucherpreisindex; Methodologie; Indexberechnung; USA; Index Numbers and Aggregation; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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  4. Growing Apart
    Declining Within- and Across-Locality Insurance in Rural China
    Autor*in: Attanasio, Orazio P.; Meghir, Costas; Mommaerts, Corina; Zheng, Yu
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We consider risk sharing in rural China during its rapid economic transformation from the late 1980s through the late 2000s. We document an erosion of consumption insurance against both household-level idiosyncratic and village-level aggregate income... mehr

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    We consider risk sharing in rural China during its rapid economic transformation from the late 1980s through the late 2000s. We document an erosion of consumption insurance against both household-level idiosyncratic and village-level aggregate income shocks, and show that this decline is related to observable economic changes: the shift from agriculture to wage employment, the decline of publicly owned Township-and-Village Enterprises, and increased migrant work. Further evidence suggests that as these changes took place at the village level, higher levels of government failed to offset these effects through the tax-and-transfer system, leaving households more exposed to both idiosyncratic and village-aggregate risk

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30143
    Schlagworte: Ländliche Entwicklung; Landbevölkerung; Ländlicher Raum; China; Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
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  5. Excess Savings and Twin Deficits
    The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies
    Autor*in: Aggarwal, Rishabh; Auclert, Adrien; Rognlie, Matthew; Straub, Ludwig
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study the effects of debt-financed fiscal transfers in a general equilibrium, heterogeneous-agent model of the world economy. In the long run, increases in government debt anywhere raise the world interest rate and increase private wealth... mehr

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    We study the effects of debt-financed fiscal transfers in a general equilibrium, heterogeneous-agent model of the world economy. In the long run, increases in government debt anywhere raise the world interest rate and increase private wealth everywhere. In the short run, a country with a larger-than-average fiscal deficit experiences both a large increase in private savings ("excess savings") and a small but persistent current account deficit (a slow-motion "twin deficit"). These patterns are consistent with the evolution of the world's balance of payments since the beginning of the Covid pandemic

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30185
    Schlagworte: Öffentliche Schulden; Haushaltsdefizit; Finanzpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Privater Haushalt; Sparen; Vermögen; Leistungsbilanz; Kapitalmobilität; Außenwirtschaftliches Gleichgewicht; Offene Volkswirtschaft; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Fiscal Policy; Current Account Adjustment; Short-Term Capital Movements; Open Economy Macroeconomics
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  6. Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits
    Evidence from Administrative Micro Data
    Autor*in: Ganong, Peter; Greig, Fiona E.; Noel, Pascal J.; Sullivan, Daniel M.; Vavra, Joseph S.
    Erschienen: August 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending... mehr

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    We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics--but not employment dynamics--during the pandemic. Second, benefit expansions allow us to study the MPC of normally low-liquidity households in a high-liquidity state. These households still have high MPCs. This suggests a role for persistent behavioral characteristics, rather than just current liquidity, in driving spending behavior. Third, the mechanisms driving our results imply that temporary benefit supplements are a promising countercyclical tool

     
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  7. Explanations for the Decline in Spending at Older Ages
    Autor*in: Rohwedder, Susann; Hurd, Michael D.; Hudomiet, Péter
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We use new data from the 2019 wave of the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey to help interpret the observed decline in spending as individuals age. At one extreme, forward-looking individuals optimally chose the decline; at the other, myopic... mehr

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    We use new data from the 2019 wave of the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey to help interpret the observed decline in spending as individuals age. At one extreme, forward-looking individuals optimally chose the decline; at the other, myopic individuals overspent and were forced to reduce spending because they had run out of wealth. Which interpretation is correct has important implications for the measurement of economic preparation for retirement. According to their own assessments, the fraction of respondents feeling financially constrained is lower at advanced ages, and the fraction satisfied with their economic situation is considerably higher at older ages than at ages near retirement. An important mechanism reconciling the evidence of reduced spending and greater economic satisfaction at older ages may be that individuals' enjoyment of several activities declines with worsening health, widowing, and increasing age, leading to a lessening desire to spend on them. We find strong support for this hypothesis. Nonetheless, close to 20% of those older than 80 report not being satisfied with their financial situation, pointing to heterogeneity in economic security

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30460
    Schlagworte: Ältere Menschen; Privater Haushalt; Private Finanzplanung; Private Verschuldung; Privater Konsum; USA; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
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  8. Do the Retired Elderly in Europe Decumulate Their Wealth? The Importance of Bequest Motives, Precautionary Saving, Public Pensions, and Homeownership
    Autor*in: Horioka, Charles; Ventura, Luigi
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    In this paper, we use micro data on a large number of European countries from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to examine the wealth accumulation (saving) behavior of the retired elderly in Europe. To summarize our main... mehr

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    In this paper, we use micro data on a large number of European countries from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to examine the wealth accumulation (saving) behavior of the retired elderly in Europe. To summarize our main findings, we find that less than half of the retired elderly in Europe are decumulating their wealth and that the average wealth accumulation rate of the retired elderly in Europe is positive though relatively moderate (6.6% over a 3-year period). These findings strongly suggest that the Wealth Decumulation (or Retirement Saving) Puzzle (the tendency of the retired elderly to not decumulate their wealth or to decumulate their wealth more slowly than expected) applies in the case of Europe. Moreover, our regression results suggest that bequest motives, generous public pension systems, and the reluctance of retired elderly homeowners to sell or borrow against their owner-occupied housing are the primary explanations for the existence of the Wealth Decumulation Puzzle in Europe

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30470
    Schlagworte: Ältere Menschen; Altersgrenze; Private Finanzplanung; Vermögen; Wohneigentum; Erbe; Intergenerationale Übertragung; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung; Europa; Household Saving; Personal Finance; Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving; Altruism; Philanthropy; Intergenerational Transfers; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Social Security and Public Pensions; Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
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  9. Neoclassical Growth with Long-Term One-Sided Commitment Contracts
    Autor*in: Krueger, Dirk; Uhlig, Harald
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper characterizes the stationary equilibrium of a continuous-time neoclassical production economy with capital accumulation in which households can insure against idiosyncratic income risk through long-term insurance contracts. Insurance... mehr

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    This paper characterizes the stationary equilibrium of a continuous-time neoclassical production economy with capital accumulation in which households can insure against idiosyncratic income risk through long-term insurance contracts. Insurance companies operating in perfectly competitive markets can commit to future contractual obligations, whereas households cannot. For the case in which household labor productivity takes two values, one of which is zero, and where households have log-utility we provide a complete analytical characterization of the optimal consumption insurance contract, the stationary consumption distribution and the equilibrium aggregate capital stock and interest rate. Under parameter restrictions, there is a unique stationary equilibrium with partial consumption insurance and a stationary consumption distribution that takes a truncated Pareto form. The unique equilibrium interest rate (capital stock) is strictly decreasing (increasing) in income risk. The paper provides an analytically tractable alternative to the standard incomplete markets general equilibrium model developed in Aiyagari (1994) by retaining its physical structure, but substituting the assumed incomplete asset markets structure with one in which limits to consumption insurance emerge endogenously, as in Krueger and Uhlig (2006)

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30518
    Schlagworte: Neoklassische Theorie; Wachstumstheorie; General; Consumption; Saving; Wealth
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  10. Economic Impact Payments and Household Spending During the Pandemic
    Autor*in: Parker, Jonathan A.; Schild, Jake; Erhard, Laura; Johnson, David S.
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Households spent only a small fraction of their 2020 Economic Impact Payment (EIPs) within a couple of months of arrival, consistent with i) pandemic constraints on spending, ii) other pandemic programs and social insurance, and iii) the broader... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Households spent only a small fraction of their 2020 Economic Impact Payment (EIPs) within a couple of months of arrival, consistent with i) pandemic constraints on spending, ii) other pandemic programs and social insurance, and iii) the broader disbursement of the EIPs compared to the economic losses during the early stages of the pandemic. While these EIPs did not fill an urgent economic need for most households, the first round of EIPs did provide timely pandemic insurance to some households who were more exposed to the economic losses from the pandemic. Households with lower liquid wealth entering the pandemic and those less able to earn while working from home each raised consumption more following receipt of their EIP. While our measurement for later EIPs is not as reliable, our estimates suggest even less spending on average to the second and third rounds of EIPs. Our point estimates imply less short-term spending on average than in response to economic stimulus payments in 2001 or 2008. While our analysis lacks the power to measure longer-term spending effects, the lack of short-term spending contributed to strong household balance sheets as the direct economic effects of the pandemic on households waned

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30596
    Schlagworte: Öffentliche Sozialleistungen; Coronavirus; Intertemporale Entscheidung; Privater Konsum; USA; Household Saving; Personal Finance; Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory; Household Finance; Household
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  11. The Insurance Implications of Government Student Loan Repayment Schemes
    Autor*in: Gervais, Martin; Liu, Qian; Lochner, Lance
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We use new administrative data that links detailed information on Canadian student loan recipients with their repayment and income histories from the Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP), income tax filings, and post-secondary schooling records to... mehr

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    We use new administrative data that links detailed information on Canadian student loan recipients with their repayment and income histories from the Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP), income tax filings, and post-secondary schooling records to measure the extent to which student borrowers adjust loan repayments to insure against income variation. Several mechanisms are available for students to adjust loan repayments in response to income fluctuations: formal, like CSLP's Repayment Assistance Plan; and informal, such as delinquency or default. Borrowers can also make larger payments than required should they experience unexpectedly high income. Indeed, loan payments are shown to increase in income, more so in early years and for individuals with higher initial debt. More formally, we estimate that on average, an unexpected $1,000 change in year-over-year income is associated with a $30 change in loan payment: from a $50 change the year after graduation, declining to a $20 change 5 years after graduation. Loan repayments are also used to absorb income variation that is more permanent in nature: for borrowers whose income is consistently below or above expected income at graduation, the magnitude of average repayment adjustment is similar to the average yearly response

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30790
    Schlagworte: Studienfinanzierung; Kredittilgung; Absolventen; Kanada; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Household Saving, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth; Government Expenditures and Education; Educational Finance; Financial Aid
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  12. Do Older Adults Accurately Forecast Their Social Security Benefits?
    Autor*in: Seiter, Grant M.; Slavov, Sita N.
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    How accurate are older people's expectations about their future Social Security benefits? Using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we compare respondents' observed Social Security claiming ages and benefits with subjective expectations... mehr

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    How accurate are older people's expectations about their future Social Security benefits? Using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we compare respondents' observed Social Security claiming ages and benefits with subjective expectations provided during their 50s and early 60s. We find that, while older adults generally have accurate expectations about their claiming age, they underestimate their annual Social Security income by approximately $1,896 (11.5 percent) on average. However, both accuracy and precision increase with age, and the forecast error for people in their early 60s is not statistically different from zero. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the mailing of Social Security statements, which contain personalized information about future benefits, we show that information provision reduces the forecast error in annual income by $344 (2.1 percent of the average benefit)

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31023
    Schlagworte: Ältere Menschen; Altersvorsorge; Erwartungsbildung; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung; Altersgrenze; USA; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Social Security and Public Pensions; Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination; Retirement; Retirement Policies
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  13. Disasters with Unobservable Duration and Frequency
    Intensified Responses and Diminished Preparedness
    Autor*in: Acharya, Viral V.; Johnson, Tim; Sundaresan, Suresh M.; Zheng, Steven
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study an economy subject to recurrent disasters when agents have imprecise information about the frequency and duration of the disasters. Uncertainty about the persistence of states can lead to seemingly pessimistic behavior in bad times and... mehr

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    We study an economy subject to recurrent disasters when agents have imprecise information about the frequency and duration of the disasters. Uncertainty about the persistence of states can lead to seemingly pessimistic behavior in bad times and optimistic behavior in good times. In a disaster, uncertainty about duration acts as an amplification mechanism. Agents alter their optimal investment and consumption more intensely relative to the full-information benchmark, and the welfare cost of parameter uncertainty can be extreme. However, in advance of a disaster, uncertainty about the arrival rate can be welfare-increasing and agents exhibit diminished preparedness: they optimally invest less in mitigation than under full information and pay less for insurance against the next disaster

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31067
    Schlagworte: Katastrophe; Risiko; Asymmetrische Information; Investitionsentscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Welfare Economics; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; General
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  14. The Beta-Delta-DELTA Sweet Spot
    Autor*in: Laibson, David I.; Maxted, Peter
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    When solving discrete-time consumption models with present-biased time preferences, backwards induction generates equilibria that are non-robust in the sense that policy functions are often sensitive to parameter choices, including the modeler's... mehr

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    When solving discrete-time consumption models with present-biased time preferences, backwards induction generates equilibria that are non-robust in the sense that policy functions are often sensitive to parameter choices, including the modeler's choice of the time-step. The current paper identifies a range of "sweet-spot" time-steps that (i) contains the psychologically relevant present bias horizons, and, (ii) generates numerically indistinguishable (i.e., robust) policy functions. This sweet spot includes both a computationally feasible range of discrete-time cases and the limiting continuous-time case (Harris and Laibson, 2013). Accordingly, researchers modeling present bias in buffer stock models can choose either discrete-time cases calibrated to be in the sweet spot or the analytically tractable continuous-time case; these approaches yield essentially identical policy functions

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30822
    Schlagworte: Zeitkonsistenz; Privater Haushalt; Verhaltensökonomik; Zeitkonsistenz; Intertemporale Entscheidung; Verhaltensökonomik; Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling; Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics; Other; Behavioral Macroeconomics; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Macro-Based Behavioral Economics; Household Saving, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
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  15. The Trickling Up of Excess Savings
    Autor*in: Auclert, Adrien; Rognlie, Matthew; Straub, Ludwig
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We provide a simple framework connecting the distribution of excess savings across households to the dynamics of aggregate demand. Deficit-financed fiscal transfers generate excess savings. The poorest households with the highest MPCs spend down... mehr

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    We provide a simple framework connecting the distribution of excess savings across households to the dynamics of aggregate demand. Deficit-financed fiscal transfers generate excess savings. The poorest households with the highest MPCs spend down their excess savings the fastest, increasing other households' incomes and their excess savings. This leads to a long-lasting increase in aggregate demand until, ultimately, excess savings have "trickled up" to the richest savers with the lowest MPCs, raising wealth inequality

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30900
    Schlagworte: Sparen; Sparquote; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
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  16. Public Education and Intergenerational Housing Wealth Effects
    Autor*in: Gilraine, Michael; Graham, James; Zheng, Angela
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    While rising house prices benefit existing homeowners, we document a new channel through which price shocks have intergenerational wealth effects. Using panel data from school zones within a large U.S. school district, we find that higher local house... mehr

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    While rising house prices benefit existing homeowners, we document a new channel through which price shocks have intergenerational wealth effects. Using panel data from school zones within a large U.S. school district, we find that higher local house prices lead to improvements in local school quality, thereby increasing child human capital and future incomes. We quantify this housing wealth channel using an overlapping generations model with neighborhood choice, spatial equilibrium, and endogenous school quality. Housing market shocks in the model generate large intra- and intergenerational wealth effects, with the latter accounting for over half of total wealth effects

     
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  17. Asset Pricing with Optimal Under-Diversification
    Autor*in: Elenev, Vadim; Landvoigt, Tim
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study sources and implications of undiversified portfolios in a production-based asset pricing model with financial frictions. Households take concentrated positions in a single firm exposed to idiosyncratic shocks because managerial effort... mehr

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    We study sources and implications of undiversified portfolios in a production-based asset pricing model with financial frictions. Households take concentrated positions in a single firm exposed to idiosyncratic shocks because managerial effort requires equity stakes, and because investors gain private benefits from concentrated holdings. Matching data on returns and portfolios, we find that the marginal investor optimally holds 45% of their portfolio in a single firm, incentivizing managerial effort that accounts for 4% of aggregate output. Investors derive control benefits equivalent to 3% points of excess return, rationalizing low observed returns on undiversified holdings in the data. A counterfactual world of full diversification would feature higher risk free rates, lower risk premiums on fully diversified and concentrated assets, less capital accumulation, yet higher consumption and welfare. Exposure to undiversified firm risk can explain approximately 40% of the level and 20% of the volatility of the equity premium. A targeted subsidy that decreases diversification improves welfare by increasing managerial effort and reducing financial frictions

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31121
    Schlagworte: CAPM; Portfolio-Management; Anlageverhalten; Theorie; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates; Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
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  18. Inequality and the Zero Lower Bound
    Autor*in: Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Marbet, Joël; Nuño, Galo; Rachedi, Omar
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper studies how household inequality shapes the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates on aggregate dynamics. To do so, we consider a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with an occasionally binding ZLB and... mehr

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    This paper studies how household inequality shapes the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates on aggregate dynamics. To do so, we consider a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with an occasionally binding ZLB and solve for its fully non-linear stochastic equilibrium using a novel neural network algorithm. In this setting, changes in the monetary policy stance influence households' precautionary savings by altering the frequency of ZLB events. As a result, the model features monetary policy non-neutrality in the long run. The degree of long-run non-neutrality, i.e., by how much monetary policy shifts real rates in the ergodic distribution of the model, can be substantial when we combine low inflation targets and high levels of wealth inequality

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31282
    Schlagworte: Einkommensverteilung; Vorsichtssparen; Niedrigzinspolitik; Geldpolitik; Neuronale Netze; Neoklassische Synthese; Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions; Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects; Monetary Policy; Central Banks and Their Policies
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  19. Households' Response to the Wealth Effects of Inflation
    Autor*in: Schnorpfeil, Philip; Weber, Michael; Hackethal, Andreas
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are... mehr

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    We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are unaware of nominal-debt erosion. Once they receive information on the debt-erosion channel, households update upwards their beliefs about nominal debt and their own real net wealth. These changes in beliefs causally affect actual consumption and hypothetical debt decisions. Our findings suggest that real wealth mediates the sensitivity of consumption to inflation once households are aware of the wealth effects of inflation

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31672
    Schlagworte: Inflation; Privater Haushalt; Privater Konsum; Konsumentenverhalten; Finanzwissen; Vermögenseffekt; Konsumtheorie; Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis; Household Saving; Personal Finance; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness; Expectations; Speculations; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Monetary Policy
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  20. Micro MPCs and Macro Counterfactuals
    The Case of the 2008 Rebates
    Autor*in: Orchard, Jacob; Ramey, Valerie A.; Wieland, Johannes
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We present evidence that the high estimated MPCs from the leading household studies result in implausible macroeconomic counterfactuals. Using the 2008 tax rebate as a case study, we calibrate a standard medium-scale New Keynesian model with the... mehr

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    We present evidence that the high estimated MPCs from the leading household studies result in implausible macroeconomic counterfactuals. Using the 2008 tax rebate as a case study, we calibrate a standard medium-scale New Keynesian model with the estimated micro MPCs to construct counterfactual macroeconomic consumption paths in the absence of a rebate. The counterfactual paths imply that consumption expenditures would have plummeted in spring and summer 2008 and then recovered when Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008. We use narratives and forecasts to argue that these paths are implausible. We then show that standard two-way fixed effect estimates of the micro MPCs are upward biased. When we correct for the biases, we estimate smaller micro MPCs than the previous literature. We also show that reasonable modifications of the model result in general equilibrium forces that dampen rather than amplify micro MPCs. The combination of smaller micro MPCs and dampening general equilibrium forces implies general equilibrium consumption multipliers that are below 0.2

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31584
    Schlagworte: Steuervergünstigung; Privater Konsum; Marginalanalyse; Neoklassische Synthese; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
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  21. Keep Calm and Bank On
    Panic-Driven Bank Runs and the Role of Public Communication
    Autor*in: Sandri, Damiano; Grigoli, Francesco; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Using a survey with information treatments conducted in the aftermath of SVB's collapse, we study households' perspectives on bank stability, the potential for panic-driven bank runs, and the role of public communication. When informed about SVB's... mehr

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    Using a survey with information treatments conducted in the aftermath of SVB's collapse, we study households' perspectives on bank stability, the potential for panic-driven bank runs, and the role of public communication. When informed about SVB's collapse, households become more likely to withdraw deposits, due to both a higher perceived risk of bank failure and higher expected losses on deposits in case of bank failure. Leveraging hypothetical questions and the exogenous variation in beliefs generated by the information treatments, we show that households reallocate deposit withdrawals primarily into other banks and cash, with little passthrough into spending. Information about FDIC insurance and communication about bank stability by the Federal Reserve can reassure depositors, while communication from political leaders only influences their electoral base

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31644
    Schlagworte: Bankenkrise; Privater Haushalt; Anlageverhalten; Risikopräferenz; Mediale Berichterstattung; Zentralbank; Politiker; USA; Bankenkrise; Privater Haushalt; Anlageverhalten; Risikopräferenz; Mediale Berichterstattung; Zentralbank; Politiker; USA; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Central Banks and Their Policies
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  22. Using Macro Counterfactuals to Assess Plausibility
    An Illustration using the 2001 Rebate MPCs
    Autor*in: Orchard, Jacob; Ramey, Valerie A.; Wieland, Johannes
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Macroeconomics has increasingly adopted tools from the applied micro "credibility revolution" to estimate micro parameters that can inform macro questions. In this paper, we argue that researchers should take advantage of this confluence of micro and... mehr

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    Macroeconomics has increasingly adopted tools from the applied micro "credibility revolution" to estimate micro parameters that can inform macro questions. In this paper, we argue that researchers should take advantage of this confluence of micro and macro to take the credibility revolution one step further. We argue that researchers should assess the plausibility of the micro estimates and macro models by constructing macro counterfactuals for historical periods and comparing these counterfactuals with reasonable benchmarks. We illustrate this approach by conducting a case study of the 2001 U.S. tax rebates, as well as briefly summarizing two previous applications of the methodology. In the 2001 rebate case, we calibrate a two-good, two-agent New Keynesian model with the leading estimates of the household marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of the rebates to construct a counterfactual path for nondurable consumption. The counterfactual path implies that without the tax rebate nondurable consumption spending would have fallen dramatically in the late summer and fall of 2001. Using forecasting regressions and other evidence, we argue that this counterfactual is implausible. When we investigate the source of the discrepancy, we find that the leading MPC estimates are not representative of the response of total consumption

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31808
    Schlagworte: Makroökonomik; Simulation; Methodologie; Besteuerungsverfahren; USA; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
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  23. More Unequal We Stand?
    Inequality Dynamics in the United States 1967-2021
    Autor*in: Heathcote, Jonathan; Perri, Fabrizio; Violante, Giovanni L.; Zhang, Lichen
    Erschienen: July 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Heathcote et al. (2010) conducted an empirical analysis of several dimensions of inequality in the United States over the years 1967-2006, using publicly-available survey data. This paper expands the analysis, and extends it to 2021. We find that... mehr

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    Heathcote et al. (2010) conducted an empirical analysis of several dimensions of inequality in the United States over the years 1967-2006, using publicly-available survey data. This paper expands the analysis, and extends it to 2021. We find that since the early 2000s, the college wage premium has stopped growing, and the race wage gap has stalled. However, the gender wage gap has kept shrinking. Both individual- and household-level income inequality have continued to rise at the top, while the cyclical component of inequality dominates dynamics below the median. Inequality in consumption expenditures has remained remarkably stable over time. Income pooling within the family and redistribution by the government have enormous impacts on the dynamics of household-level inequality, with the role of the family diminishing and that of the government growing over time. In particular, largely due to generous government transfers, the COVID recession has been the first downturn in fifty years in which inequality in disposable income and consumption actually declined

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31486
    Schlagworte: Einkommensverteilung; Lohnstruktur; USA; Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis; Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs; Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
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  24. Job Transitions and Employee Earnings After Acquisitions
    Linking Corporate and Worker Outcomes
    Autor*in: Arnold, David; Milligan, Kevin; Moon, Terry; Tavakoli, Amirhossein
    Erschienen: November 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper connects changes in employer characteristics through job transitions to employee earnings following mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Using firm balance sheet data linked to individual earnings data in Canada and a matched... mehr

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    This paper connects changes in employer characteristics through job transitions to employee earnings following mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Using firm balance sheet data linked to individual earnings data in Canada and a matched difference-in-differences design, we find that after M&As acquirers expand while targets shrink substantially relative to their matched control groups. Additionally, profit margins decrease for both acquirers and targets in the medium run. Furthermore, workers at target firms suffer losses in earnings, and this decline in earnings is entirely driven by workers who move to other firms after an M&A event. We find that workers leaving target firms after M&As move to larger firms with higher wage premiums, but with much worse match qualities on average. Taken together, it appears that job transitions to employers with poor match qualities primarily explain the post-M&A decline in worker earnings in our setting

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31866
    Schlagworte: Übernahme; Arbeitskräfte; Arbeitsmobilität; Lohnstruktur; Kanada; Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance; Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials; Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets; Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
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  25. How Do Households Respond to Income Shocks?
    Autor*in: Krueger, Dirk; Malkov, Egor; Perri, Fabrizio
    Erschienen: November 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We use panel data from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth from 1991 to 2016 to document empirically what components of the household budget constraint change in response to shocks to household labor income, both over shorter and over... mehr

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    We use panel data from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth from 1991 to 2016 to document empirically what components of the household budget constraint change in response to shocks to household labor income, both over shorter and over longer horizons. We show that shocks to labor income are associated with negligible changes in transfers and non-labor income components, modest changes in consumption expenditures, and large changes in wealth. We then split the sample in households which do not own business or real estate wealth, and households who do. For the first group, we find that consumption responses are more substantial (and increasing with the horizon of the income shock) and wealth responses are much smaller. We show that, for this group, a version of the standard PIH framework that allows for partial insurance against even permanent income shocks can explain well the consumption and wealth responses, both at short and long horizons. For the second group the standard framework cannot explain the large changes in wealth associated with income shocks. We conclude that models which include shocks to the value of household wealth are necessary to fully evaluate the sources and the consequences of household resource risk

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31894
    Schlagworte: Haushaltseinkommen; Privater Haushalt; Schock; Privater Konsum; Italien; Other; Consumption; Saving; Wealth
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