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  1. The Dynamic Impact of Market Integration
    Evidence from Renewable Energy Expansion in Chile
    Autor*in: Gonzales, Luis E.; Ito, Koichiro; Reguant, Mar
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Effective and economical expansion of renewable energy is one of the most urgent and important challenges of addressing climate change. However, many countries are facing a problem because existing network infrastructures (i.e., transmission... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Effective and economical expansion of renewable energy is one of the most urgent and important challenges of addressing climate change. However, many countries are facing a problem because existing network infrastructures (i.e., transmission networks) were not originally built to accommodate renewables, which creates disconnections between demand centers and renewable supply. In this paper, we study the static and dynamic impacts of market integration on renewable energy expansion. Our theory highlights that statically, market integration improves allocative efficiency by gains from trade, and dynamically, it incentivizes new entry of renewable power plants. Using two recent grid expansions in the Chilean electricity market, we empirically test our theoretical predictions and show that commonly-used event study estimation underestimates the dynamic benefits if renewable investments occur in anticipation of market integration. We build a structural model of power plant entry and show how to correct for such bias. We find that market integration resulted in price convergence across regions, increases in renewable generation, and decreases in generation cost and pollution emissions. Furthermore, a substantial amount of renewable entry would not have occurred in the absence of market integration. We show that ignoring this dynamic effect would substantially understate the benefits of transmission investments

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30016
    Schlagworte: Erneuerbare Energie; Marktintegration; Wirkungsanalyse; Chile; Electric Utilities; Utilities: General; Demand and Supply; Prices; Alternative Energy Sources; Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling; Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
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  2. The Next Wave of Energy Innovation
    Which Technologies? Which Skills?
    Autor*in: Popp, David; Vona, Francesco; Gregoire-Zawilski, Myriam; Marin, Giovanni
    Erschienen: August 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The costs of low-carbon energy fell dramatically over the past decade, leading to rapid growth in its deployment. However, many challenges remain to deploy low-carbon energy at a scale necessary to meet net zero carbon emission targets. If net zero... mehr

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    The costs of low-carbon energy fell dramatically over the past decade, leading to rapid growth in its deployment. However, many challenges remain to deploy low-carbon energy at a scale necessary to meet net zero carbon emission targets. If net zero goals are to be met, developing complementary technologies and skills will be a necessary part of the next wave of low-carbon energy innovation. These include both improvements in physical capital, such as smart grids to aid integration of intermittent renewables, and human capital, to develop the skills workers need for a low-carbon economy. We document recent trends in energy innovation and discuss the lessons learnt for policy. We then discuss the potential role for complementary innovation in both physical capital--using smart grids as an example of how policy can help--and human capital, where we show how a task approach to labor informs policy and research on the worker skills needed for the energy transition

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30343
    Schlagworte: Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Klimaschutz; Umwelttechnik; Innovation; Kompetenz; Qualifikation; Humankapital; Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity; Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives; Government Policy; Alternative Energy Sources; Technological Innovation
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  3. Electricity Retail Rate Design in a Decarbonized Economy
    An Analysis of Time-Of-Use and Critical Peak Pricing
    Autor*in: Schittekatte, Tim; Mallapragada, Dharik; Joskow, Paul L.; Schmalensee, Richard
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Currently, most U.S. electricity consumers pay a constant price per kWh consumed that accounts for most of their bill. Ongoing developments in the power system increase efficiency gains that can be made from exposing consumers to widely varying... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Currently, most U.S. electricity consumers pay a constant price per kWh consumed that accounts for most of their bill. Ongoing developments in the power system increase efficiency gains that can be made from exposing consumers to widely varying wholesale spot prices. Pure spot pricing is not popular; consumers (and politicians) value price predictability and bill stability. We focus on second-best alternatives: time-of-use (TOU) and critical peak pricing (CPP). We introduce alternative assessment criteria tailored to a context with increasing intraday shiftable loads. Using historical data from CAISO, ERCOT and ISO-NE, we find that out-of-sample daily Spearman rank correlations between TOU rates and spot prices can be relatively high (averaging 0.7-0.8), and simulations confirm that TOU rates can reasonably replicate efficient load-shifting incentives (up to 60-70% of the potential). Our analysis suggests that TOU rates, especially when complemented with CPP, can be considerably more socially valuable than previously estimated

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30560
    Schlagworte: Strompreis; Privater Konsum; Elektrizitätswirtschaft; Strommarkt; Preismanagement; Lastmanagement; USA; Electric Utilities; Utilities: General; Demand and Supply; Prices; Alternative Energy Sources
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  4. The Economic Determinants of Heat Pump Adoption
    Autor*in: Davis, Lucas W.
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    One concern with subsidies for low-carbon technologies is that they tend to go predominantly to high-income households. Previous research has shown, for example, that the top income quintile receives 60% of subsidies for rooftop solar and 90% of... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    One concern with subsidies for low-carbon technologies is that they tend to go predominantly to high-income households. Previous research has shown, for example, that the top income quintile receives 60% of subsidies for rooftop solar and 90% of subsidies for electric vehicles. This paper finds that heat pumps are an important exception. Using newly available U.S. nationally representative data, the paper finds that there is remarkably little correlation between heat pump adoption and household income. Nationwide, 15% of U.S. households have a heat pump as their primary heating equipment, and adoption levels are essentially identical for all income levels ranging from the bottom of the income distribution (<$30,000 annually) to the top ($150,000+). Instead, the paper shows that heat pump adoption is strongly correlated with geography, climate, and electricity prices

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31344
    Schlagworte: Wärmepumpe; Innovationsakzeptanz; Innovationsdiffusion; USA; Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; Economics of Regulation; Demand and Supply; Prices; Alternative Energy Sources; Government Policy; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
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  5. Causal Effects of Renewable Portfolio Standards on Renewable Investments and Generation
    The Role of Heterogeneity and Dynamics
    Autor*in: Deschênes, Olivier; Malloy, Christopher; McDonald, Gavin G.
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Despite a 30-year long history, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) remain controversial and debates continue to surround their efficacy in leading the low-carbon transition in the electricity sector. Contributing to the ongoing debates is the lack... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Despite a 30-year long history, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) remain controversial and debates continue to surround their efficacy in leading the low-carbon transition in the electricity sector. Contributing to the ongoing debates is the lack of definitive causal evidence on their impact on investments in renewable capacity and generation. This paper provides the most detailed analysis to date of the impact of RPSs on renewable electricity capacity investments and on generation. We use state-level data from 1990-2019 and recent econometric methods designed to address dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects in a staggered adoption panel data design. We find that, on average, RPS policies increase wind generation capacity by 600-1200 MW, a 44% increase, but have no significant effect on investments in solar capacity. Additionally, we demonstrate that RPSs have slow dynamic effects: most of the capacity additions occur 5 years after RPS implementation. Estimates for wind and solar electricity generation mimic those for capacity investments. We also find similar results using an alternate treatment definition that allows states to meet their RPS requirements with pre-existing renewable generation and renewable generation from nearby states

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31568
    Schlagworte: Nachhaltige Kapitalanlage; Erneuerbare Energie; Förderung erneuerbarer Energien; Elektrische Energietechnik; Windenergieanlage; Solartechnik; USA; General; Alternative Energy Sources; General
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  6. Distributional Equity in the Employment and Wage Impacts of Energy Transitions
    Autor*in: Gilbert, Benjamin; Gagarin, Hannah; Hoen, Ben
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We use restricted-access, geocoded data on the near-universe of workers in 23 U.S. states in order to quantify the impact of wind energy development on local earnings and employment, by race, ethnicity, sex, and educational attainment. We find the... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We use restricted-access, geocoded data on the near-universe of workers in 23 U.S. states in order to quantify the impact of wind energy development on local earnings and employment, by race, ethnicity, sex, and educational attainment. We find the largest relative impacts for workers without a high school education, or workers with a college education, in addition to other systematic differences across sub-populations. We compare these results to estimates using county aggregates of the worker-level data, such as can be obtained using publicly available data. We find that (a) county-level estimates are dramatically dampened relative to geocoded worker-level estimates, and (b) the degree of bias differs by sub-population such that qualitative comparisons of impacts are not consistent using restricted-access data versus county-level data for most sub-populations. We discuss implications for achieving equity goals within energy transition policies

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31608
    Schlagworte: Windenergie; Windenergieanlage; Energiepolitik; Beschäftigungseffekt; Lohnstruktur; Regionalökonomik; USA; Energy; Alternative Energy Sources; Energy and the Macroeconomy; Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes; Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
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  7. Clean Growth
    Autor*in: Arkolakis, Costas; Walsh, Conor
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We provide a spatial theory of clean growth to assess the global impact of the rise of renewable energy. We model the details of the combined production and transmission network of electricity ("the grid") that determine the supply and losses of... mehr

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We provide a spatial theory of clean growth to assess the global impact of the rise of renewable energy. We model the details of the combined production and transmission network of electricity ("the grid") that determine the supply and losses of energy in space. The local rate of clean energy adoption depends on learning-by-doing, the global electricity and trade network, and regional comparative advantage in renewable resources. We use the model to measure the aggregate and spatial implications of clean growth. We find that the world's power system is likely to be dominated by renewables by 2040 in a range of scenarios, with substantial welfare gains, even in the absence of policy. Incorporating policy, we find that the US Inflation Reduction Act significantly accelerates renewable uptake, and generates substantial economic benefits. In addition, planned grid improvements lower prices substantially in many areas of the US, justifying their cost of construction

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31615
    Schlagworte: Erneuerbare Energie; Wirtschaftswachstum; Umweltpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Regionalökonomik; USA; Neoclassical Models of Trade; General; Demand and Supply; Prices; Alternative Energy Sources; Energy and the Macroeconomy; General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
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  8. Regularization from Economic Constraints
    A New Estimator for Marginal Emissions
    Autor*in: Holland, Stephen P.; Mansur, Erin; Verdier, Valentin; Yates, Andrew J.
    Erschienen: January 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Environmental policy is increasingly concerned with measuring emissions resulting from local changes to electricity consumption. These marginal emissions are challenging to measure because electricity grids encompass multiple locations and the... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Environmental policy is increasingly concerned with measuring emissions resulting from local changes to electricity consumption. These marginal emissions are challenging to measure because electricity grids encompass multiple locations and the information available to identify the effect of each location's consumption on grid-wide emissions is limited. We formalize this as a high-dimensional aggregation problem: The effect of electricity consumption on emissions can be estimated precisely for each electricity generating unit (generator), but not precisely enough to obtain reliable estimates of marginal emissions by summing these effects across all generators in a grid. We study how two economic constraints can address this problem: electricity supply equals demand and an assumption of monotonicity. We show that these constraints can be used to formulate a 'naturally regularized' estimator, which implements an implicit penalization that does not need to be directly tuned. Under an additional assumption of sparsity, we show that our new estimator solves the high-dimensional aggregation problem, i.e., it is consistent for marginal emissions where the usual regression estimator would not be. We also develop an asymptotically valid method for inference to accompany our estimator. When applied to the U.S. electricity grid with 13 separate consumption regions, our method yields plausible patterns of marginal generation across fuel types and geographic location. Our estimates of region-level marginal emissions are precise, account for imports/exports between regions, and allow for all fuel types to potentially be on the margin

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32065
    Schlagworte: Elektrizität; Privater Konsum; Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Messung; Schätzung; Panel; Erneuerbare Energie; Umweltpolitik; USA; Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models; Alternative Energy Sources; Government Policy; Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
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  9. Power Flows
    Transmission Lines and Corporate Profits
    Autor*in: Hausman, Catherine
    Erschienen: January 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Economists, energy experts, and policymakers have called for accelerating investment in the U.S. electricity transmission network. Additional transmission lines could better integrate markets, reducing the total cost of electricity generation. They... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Economists, energy experts, and policymakers have called for accelerating investment in the U.S. electricity transmission network. Additional transmission lines could better integrate markets, reducing the total cost of electricity generation. They could also allow for the better integration of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, located in areas that traditionally did not have much generation capacity and that are far away from centers of demand. In this paper, I document the magnitude of static allocative inefficiencies induced by transmission congestion in two major U.S. electricity markets. I show that the allocative inefficiencies are rising over time, totaling more than $2 billion in 2022. Moreover, I document an important political economy dimension not yet explored in the literature: the magnitudes of gains and losses from this market integration at some individual firms is surprisingly large: four firms would have experienced a collective $1.6 billion drop in operating profits in 2022 had the market been integrated. I then tie some of these firms to reports of transmission hold-up in these markets. I argue that understanding firm-level gains and losses is just as important as understanding overall inefficiencies, particularly in an environment where incumbents may have the power to block new lines

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32091
    Schlagworte: Elektrizitätsversorgung; Energieinfrastruktur; Elektrizitätswirtschaft; Infrastrukturinvestition; USA; Electric Utilities; Energy; Environment; Demand and Supply; Prices; Alternative Energy Sources; Government Policy
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  10. The Cost of Climate Policy to Capital
    Evidence from Renewable Portfolio Standards
    Autor*in: Hong, Harrison G.; Kubik, Jeffrey D.; Shore, Edward P.
    Erschienen: December 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Many US states have set ambitious renewable portfolio standards (RPS) that require utilities to switch from fossil fuels toward renewables. RPS increases the renewables capacity, bond issuance, maturity, and yield spreads of investor-owned utilities... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Many US states have set ambitious renewable portfolio standards (RPS) that require utilities to switch from fossil fuels toward renewables. RPS increases the renewables capacity, bond issuance, maturity, and yield spreads of investor-owned utilities compared to municipal producers that are exempted from this climate policy. Contrary to stranded-asset concerns, the hit to overall firm financial health is moderate. Falling cost of renewables and passthrough of these costs to consumers mitigate the burden of RPS on firms. Using a Tobin's q model, we show that, absent these mitigating factors, the impact of RPS on firm valuations would have been severe

     
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