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  1. Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows
    Autor*in: Emter, Lorenz
    Erschienen: July 2020
    Verlag:  Central Bank of Ireland, [Dublin]

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Research technical paper / Central Bank of Ireland ; vol. 2020, no. 6
    Schlagworte: international capital flows; sudden stops; financial stability
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper analyses the incidence and severity of sudden stops in euro area countries before and after the introduction of the ECB's asset purchase programmes. We define sudden stops as abrupt declines in private net financial inflows, i.e. total... mehr

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    This paper analyses the incidence and severity of sudden stops in euro area countries before and after the introduction of the ECB's asset purchase programmes. We define sudden stops as abrupt declines in private net financial inflows, i.e. total flows adjusted for EU and IMF loans and changes in TARGET2 balances. Distinguishing between mild and severe sudden stops, we document that sudden stops were overall more frequent and more severe in euro area countries compared to other OECD economies over the period 1999-2020. On the basis of a multinomial logit model, we find that the susceptibility of euro area countries to severe sudden stops mainly reflects domestic fundamentals whereas there is no clear evidence of an adverse direct effect of being part of the euro area. On the contrary, TARGET2 appears to act as an "automatic stabiliser", counteracting sudden stops in private financial i nflows. Moreover, our econometric analysis suggests that the asset purchase programmes implemented by the ECB since 2015 have overall almost halved the risk of severe sudden stops in euro area countries. We find tentative evidence that this effect operates through confidence channels.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9789289948203
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/246174
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2597 (October 2021)
    Schlagworte: Financial flows; sudden stops; monetary policy; ECB asset purchase programmes
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Sudden stops and reserve accumulation in the presence of international liquidity risk
    Erschienen: February 12, 2020
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    We propose a small open economy model where agents borrow internationally and invest in liquid foreign assets to insure against liquidity shocks, which temporarily shut out the economy of short-term credit markets. Due to the presence of a pecuniary... mehr

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    We propose a small open economy model where agents borrow internationally and invest in liquid foreign assets to insure against liquidity shocks, which temporarily shut out the economy of short-term credit markets. Due to the presence of a pecuniary externality individual agents borrow too much and hold too little liquid assets relative to a social planner. This inefficiency rationalizes macroprudential policy interventions in the form of reserve accumulation at the central bank coupled with a tax on foreign borrowing. Unless combined with other measures, a tax on foreign borrowing is detrimental to welfare; it reduces agents' incentives to invest in liquid assets and thereby increases financial instability. Our model can quantitatively match the simultaneous depreciation of the exchange rate and contractions in output, gross trade ows, foreign liabilities and foreign reserves during sudden stop episodes.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    hdl: 10419/224520
    Schriftenreihe: Jahrestagung 2020 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 50
    Schlagworte: international reserves; sudden stops; liquidity; macroprudential policy,pecuniary externalities
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Sudden stops, sovereign risk, and fiscal rules
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank, Institutions for Development Sector, [Washington, DC]

    This paper studies the effect of implementing fiscal rules on sovereign default risk and on the probability of large capital ow reversals for a large sample of countries including both developed and emerging market economies. Results indicate that... mehr

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    This paper studies the effect of implementing fiscal rules on sovereign default risk and on the probability of large capital ow reversals for a large sample of countries including both developed and emerging market economies. Results indicate that fiscal rules are beneficial for macroeconomic stability, as they significantly reduce both sovereign risk perception and the probability of a sudden stop in countries that implement them. These results, which are robust to various empirical specifications, have important policy implications specially for countries that have relaxed their fiscal rules in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237488
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no IDB-WP-1207
    Schlagworte: fiscal rules; sovereign default risk; sudden stops; dynamic heterogeneous panel data models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten)
  5. Capital flows-at-risk
    push, pull and the role of policy
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We characterise the probability distributions of various categories of gross capital flows conditional on information contained in financial asset prices in a panel of emerging market economies, with a focus on "tail" events. Our framework, based on... mehr

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    We characterise the probability distributions of various categories of gross capital flows conditional on information contained in financial asset prices in a panel of emerging market economies, with a focus on "tail" events. Our framework, based on the quantile regression methodology, allows for a separate role of push- and pull-type factors, and because it is based on high-frequency data, can quantify the likelihood of different outturns before official capital ows data are released. We find that both push and pull factors have heterogeneous effects across the distributions of gross capital flows, which are most marked in the left tails. We also explore the role of various policies, and find that macroprudential and capital flows management measures are stabilising, leading to lower chances of either large portfolio inflows or outflows.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789289945387
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/234092
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2538 (April 2021)
    Schlagworte: capital flows; sudden stops; capital flight; retrenchment; capital flow surges; push versus pull; capital controls; macroprudential policy; nancial conditions indices; quantile regression
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows
    Autor*in: Emter, Lorenz
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, Dublin

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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: TEP working paper ; no. 20, 11 (July 2020)
    Schlagworte: international capital flows; sudden stops; financial stability
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Sudden Stops in Capital Inflows and the Design of Exchange Rate Regimes
  8. Sudden stops in capital inflows and the design of exchange rate regimes
  9. Post-conflict reconstruction, stabilization and growth agenda for Sudan
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Economic Research Forum (ERF), Dokki, Giza, Egypt

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    Schriftenreihe: ERF working papers series ; no. 1662 (November 2023)
    Schlagworte: Sudan; South Sudan; military warfare; civil war; kleptocracy; sudden stops; postconflict financing and reforms; long-term growth; catastrophic economic cost; peaceful "renaissance" growth; agricultural potential
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Precautionary demand for foreign assets in sudden stop economies
    an assessment of the new merchantilism
    Erschienen: 2007
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass.

    Financial globalization was off to a rocky start in emerging economies hit by Sudden Stops since the mid 1990s. Foreign reserves grew very rapidly during this period, and hence it is often argued that we live in the era of a New Merchantilism in... mehr

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    Financial globalization was off to a rocky start in emerging economies hit by Sudden Stops since the mid 1990s. Foreign reserves grew very rapidly during this period, and hence it is often argued that we live in the era of a New Merchantilism in which large stocks of reserves are a war-chest for defense against Sudden Stops. We conduct a quantitative assessment of this argument using a stochastic intertemporal equilibrium framework with incomplete asset markets in which precautionary saving affects foreign assets via three mechanisms: business cycle volatility, financial globalization, and Sudden Stop risk. In this framework, Sudden Stops are an equilibrium outcome produced by an endogenous credit constraint that triggers Irving Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism. Our results show that financial globalization and Sudden Stop risk are plausible explanations of the observed surge in reserves but business cycle volatility is not. In fact, business cycle volatility has declined in the post-globalization period. These results hold whether we use the formulation of intertemporal preferences of the Bewley-Aiyagari-Hugget class of precautionary savings models or the Uzawa-Epstein setup with endogenous time preference.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; 13123
    Schlagworte: Globalisierung; Internationaler Finanzmarkt; Wirtschaftskrise; Konjunktur; Währungsreserven; Welt
    Weitere Schlagworte: Array
    Umfang: 27, [18] S., graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 26 - 27

    Internetausg.: papers.nber.org/papers/w13123.pdf - lizenzpflichtig

  11. The international transmission of credit bubbles
    theory and policy
    Erschienen: September 2015
    Verlag:  [Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Department of Economics and Business], [Barcelona]

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: [Working papers / Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Department of Economics and Business ; 1465]
    Schlagworte: financial globalization; international capital flows; sudden stops; credit bubbles; internationa lpolicy coordination
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen