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  1. Gone
    Poems
    Autor*in: Howe, Fanny
    Erschienen: [2003]; ©2003
    Verlag:  University of California Press, Berkeley, CA

    This collection of new poems by one of the most respected poets in the United States uses motifs of advance and recovery, doubt and conviction—in an emotional relation to the known world. Heralded as "one of our most vital, unclassifiable writers" by... mehr

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    Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Bibliothek - Niedersächsische Landesbibliothek
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    Standort:
    Bibliotheks-und Informationssystem der Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg (BIS)
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    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Osnabrück
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    This collection of new poems by one of the most respected poets in the United States uses motifs of advance and recovery, doubt and conviction—in an emotional relation to the known world. Heralded as "one of our most vital, unclassifiable writers" by the Voice Literary Supplement, Fanny Howe has published more than twenty books and is the recipient of the Gold Medal for Poetry from the Commonwealth Club of California. In addition, her Selected Poems received the 2001 Lenore Marshall Poetry Prize for the Most Outstanding Book of Poetry Published in 2000 from the Academy of American Poets.The poems in Gone describe the transit of a psyche, driven by uncertainty and by love, through various stations and experiences. This volume of short poems and one lyrical essay, all written in the last five years, is broken into five parts; and the longest of these, "The Passion," consecrates the contradictions between these two emotions. The New York Times Book Review said, "Howe has made a long-term project of trying to determine how we fit into God's world, and her aim is both true and marvelously free of sentimental piety." With Gone, readers will have the opportunity to experience firsthand Howe’s continuation of that elusive and fascinating endeavor

     
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  2. The COVID-19 pandemic's evolving impacts on the labor market: who's been hurt and what we should do
    Autor*in: Hershbein, Brad; Holzer, Harry J.
    Erschienen: 2-11-2021
    Verlag:  W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Kalamazoo, MI

    In this paper, we shed light on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, and how they have evolved over most of the year 2020. Relying primarily on microdata from the CPS and state-level data on virus caseloads, mortality, and policy... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 208
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    In this paper, we shed light on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, and how they have evolved over most of the year 2020. Relying primarily on microdata from the CPS and state-level data on virus caseloads, mortality, and policy restrictions, we consider a range of employment outcomes - including permanent layoffs, which generate large and lasting costs - and how these outcomes vary across demographic groups, occupations, and industries over time. We also examine how these employment patterns vary across different states, according to the timing and severity of virus caseloads, deaths, and closure measures. We find that the labor market recovery of the summer and early fall stagnated in late fall and early winter. As noted by others, we find low-wage and minority workers are hardest hit initially, but that recoveries have varied, and not always consistently, between Blacks and Hispanics. Statewide business closures and other restrictions on economic activity reduce employment rates concurrently but do not seem to have lingering effects once relaxed. In contrast, virus deaths - but not caseloads - not only depress current employment but produce accumulating harm. We conclude with policy options for states to repair their labor markets.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/246055
    Schriftenreihe: Upjohn Institute working paper ; 21, 341
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; employment rates; inequality; pandemic recession; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Labor market trends and outcomes
    what has changed since the Great Recession?
    Autor*in: Groshen, Erica L.; Holzer, Harry J.
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We describe trends in wages and labor force participation for the "working class" - whom we define as workers with high school or less education - compared to those with college or more. We compare cyclical peaks over the entire period 1979-2019,... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 443
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    We describe trends in wages and labor force participation for the "working class" - whom we define as workers with high school or less education - compared to those with college or more. We compare cyclical peaks over the entire period 1979-2019, with particular focus on the Great Recession (2007-2010) and recovery (2010-2019). We also present results by gender and race. We find real wage growth in the latter period for all workers, but not enough to change the long-term trends of growing inequality and stagnant wages for the less-educated; and we also find that labor force participation continued to decline for the less-educated, even during the recovery. Gaps between whites and blacks also grew while Hispanics and Asians made more progress. We consider various explanations of these findings, and show that the early effects of the 2020-21 pandemic recession that hurt lesseducated workers and those of color more than anyone else.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/243459
    Schriftenreihe: IZA policy paper ; no. 173
    Schlagworte: wages; participation; working class; Great Recession; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. EU employment dynamics
    the pandemic years and beyond
    Autor*in: Jestl, Stefan; Stehrer, Robert
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Verein "Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (wiiw), Wien

    The economic shock induced by the pandemic has plunged European economies into a recession. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have affected economic life in a substantial way, with industries and population groups facing varying difficulties.... mehr

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    Standort:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 668
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    keine Fernleihe

     

    The economic shock induced by the pandemic has plunged European economies into a recession. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have affected economic life in a substantial way, with industries and population groups facing varying difficulties. This study explores potential future employment dynamics across European industries and employment groups for the period up to 2026 by drawing on past sectoral trends and the latest macroeconomic forecast results from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission. A scenario analysis is also carried out, taking into account the great uncertainty and risks that are related to the baseline forecasts.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266042
    Schriftenreihe: Research report / wiiw ; 457 (November 2021)
    Schlagworte: EU employment dynamics; forecasts; pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 76 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Container trade and the U.S. recovery
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Center for Financial Studies, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North... mehr

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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 108
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    keine Fernleihe

     

    Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. Although detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output driven by domestic demand had only recovered to 59% of pre-pandemic levels and that of real personal consumption only to 76%. The difference is mainly accounted for by unexpected reductions in frictions in the container shipping market.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/246871
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: October 13, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: CFS working paper series ; no. 659
    Schlagworte: Merchandise trade; container; shipping; manufacturing; consumption; COVID-19; supply chain; recession; recovery; globalization
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Container trade and the U.S. recovery
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Dallas

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 686
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 2108
    Schlagworte: Merchandise trade; container; shipping; manufacturing; consumption; COVID-19; supply chain; recession; recovery; globalization
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020-23
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Center for Financial Studies, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 108
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a yearover-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, and by 0.4 percentage points at the end of 2022. In contrast, the impact on measures of core inflation such as trimmed mean PCE inflation is only 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points in 2021 and 2022, respectively. These estimates already account for any increases in inflation expectations under the scenario. The peak response of the 1-year household inflation expectation would be 1.2 percentage points, while that of the 5-year expectation would be 0.2 percentage points.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248405
    Schriftenreihe: CFS working paper series ; no. 670
    Schlagworte: Scenario; inflation; expectation; oil price; gasoline price; household survey; core; pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020-23
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, and by 0.4 percentage points at the end of 2022. In contrast, the impact on measures of core inflation such as trimmed mean PCE inflation is only 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points in 2021 and 2022, respectively. These estimates already account for any increases in inflation expectations under the scenario. The peak response of the 1-year household inflation expectation would be 1.2 percentage points, while that of the 5-year expectation would be 0.2 percentage points.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249000
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9455 (2021)
    Schlagworte: scenario; inflation; expectation; oil price; gasoline price; household survey; core; pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020-23
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: November 1, 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Dallas

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 686
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 2116
    Schlagworte: Scenario; inflation; expectation; oil price; gasoline price; household survey; core; pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Container trade and the U.S. recovery
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. Although detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output driven by domestic demand had only recovered to 57% of pre-pandemic levels and that of real personal consumption only to 78%. The difference is mainly accounted for by unexpected reductions in frictions in the container shipping market.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/236696
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9154 (2021)
    Schlagworte: merchandise trade; container; shipping; manufacturing; consumption; Covid-19; supply chain; recession; recovery; globalization
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Container trade and the U.S. recovery
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: 19 June 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    LZ 161
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    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16277
    Schlagworte: merchandise trade; container; shipping; Manufacturing; Consumption; COVID-19,Supply Chain; Recession; recovery; Globalization
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Cultural resilience, religion, and economic recovery
    evidence from the 2005 hurricane season
    Autor*in: Hasan, Iftekhar; Manfredonia, Stefano; Noth, Felix
    Erschienen: [27. Juni 2021]
    Verlag:  Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, Halle (Saale), Germany

    This paper investigates the critical role of religion in the economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. Exploiting the 2005 hurricane season in the southeast United States, we document that establishments in counties with higher religious... mehr

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    Standort:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    Standort:
    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
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    eBook
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 13
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    This paper investigates the critical role of religion in the economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. Exploiting the 2005 hurricane season in the southeast United States, we document that establishments in counties with higher religious adherence rates saw a significantly stronger recovery in terms of productivity for 2005-2010. Our results further suggest that a particular religious denomination does not drive the effect. We observe that different aspects of religion, such as adherence, shared experiences from ancestors, and institutionalised features, all drive the effect on recovery. Our results matter since they underline the importance of cultural characteristics like religion during and after economic crises.

     
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    hdl: 10419/235504
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This is a completely revised version
    Schriftenreihe: IWH discussion papers ; 2021, no. 9 (June 2021)
    Schlagworte: establishment-level productivity; natural disasters; recovery; religion
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (III, 67 Seiten), Diagramme
  13. Evaluation of the collection and recovery of selected waste streams for the further development of circular economy
    final report
    Autor*in: Wagner, Jörg; Steinmetzer, Sonja; Theophil, Laura; Strues, Anna-Sophie; Kösegi, Nicole; Hoyer, Stefan
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  Umweltbundesamt, Dessau-Roßlau

    As part of the general producer responsibility regulated by the German Circular Economy Act, there are special legal regulations for the collection and environmentally sound disposal of certain waste streams (e.g. for packaging, batteries, waste... mehr

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    Standort:
    Fachhochschule Erfurt, Hochschulbibliothek
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    Standort:
    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
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    eBook
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    Standort:
    HafenCity Universität Hamburg, Bibliothek
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    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    UB Weimar
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    As part of the general producer responsibility regulated by the German Circular Economy Act, there are special legal regulations for the collection and environmentally sound disposal of certain waste streams (e.g. for packaging, batteries, waste electrical and electronic equipment, end-of-life vehicles). These require producers to set up collection systems for the disposal of the corresponding waste and to achieve certain recycling and, in some cases, collection rates. The research project examined whether and how resource conservation and environmental relief potentials can be realized for other waste streams - especially end-of-life tyres and used textiles - through improved collection and recovery. In addition, there are other waste streams for which it can be assumed that the current regulations are insufficient to realize the inherent recycling potential in these waste streams. Bulky waste, mattresses, furniture, carpets, artificial turf and diapers were identified as such waste streams. The project examined the waste streams in terms of collection and utilization practices, identified barriers to resource-efficient waste management, and derived measures to improve prevention, preparation for reuse, and recycling of these waste streams. In a first step, the material flows of the waste streams were analyzed with regard to their quantity and used disposal routes. For this purpose, statistics and secondary sources were reviewed and interviews were conducted. In a second step, the identified disposal routes were evaluated with regard to ecological criteria, including pollutant aspects and resource conservation potentials, as well as economic criteria. From this assessment, conclusions and measures have been derived that can improve the recycling of the individual waste streams in terms of a resource-saving circular economy. The measures were prioritized based on various criteria. The results of the project were discussed in three technical meetings with the stakeholders involved in the individual waste streams. Im Rahmen der generell durch das KrWG geregelten Produktverantwortung existieren für bestimmte Abfallströme spezielle rechtliche Regelungen zur Erfassung und umweltverträglichen Entsorgung (bspw. für Verpackungen, Batterien, Elektro- und Elektronikaltgeräte, Altfahrzeuge). Diese Regelungen verpflichten die Hersteller, Erfassungssysteme für die Entsorgung der entsprechenden Abfälle einzurichten und bestimmte Verwertungs- und teilweise Erfassungsquoten zu erreichen. Im Rahmen des Forschungsprojektes wurde überprüft, ob und wie bei weiteren Abfallströmen – vor allem Altreifen und Alttextilien – durch eine verbesserte Erfassung und Verwertung Ressourcenschonungs- und Umweltentlastungspotenziale realisiert werden können. Darüber hinaus existieren weitere Abfallströme, bei denen zu vermuten ist, dass die gegenwärtigen Regelungen nicht ausreichen, um das in diesen Abfallströmen innewohnende Recyclingpotenzial auszuschöpfen. Als derartige Abfallströme wurden Sperrmüll, Matratzen, Möbel, Teppiche, Kunstrasen und Windeln identifiziert. Das Vorhaben hat die Abfallströme hinsichtlich der Praxis der Erfassung und Verwertung untersucht, Hemmnisse einer ressourcenschonenden Abfallbewirtschaftung aufgezeigt und Maßnahmen abgeleitet, um die Vermeidung, die Vorbereitung zur Wiederverwendung und das Recycling dieser Abfallströme zu verbessern. Dabei sind in einem ersten Schritt die Stoffströme der benannten Abfallarten hinsichtlich des Aufkommens und der genutzten Entsorgungswege analysiert worden. Hierfür wurden Statistiken und Sekundärquellen gesichtet und Befragungen durchgeführt. In einem zweiten Schritt sind die identifizierten Entsorgungswege hinsichtlich ökologischer, einschließlich der Schadstoffaspekte und Ressourcenschonungspotenziale, sowie ökonomischer Kriterien bewertet worden. Aus dieser Bewertung sind Schlussfolgerungen und Maßnahmen abgeleitet worden, welche die Verwertung der einzelnen Abfallströme im Sinne einer ressourcenschonenden Kreislaufwirtschaft verbessern können. Anhand verschiedener Kriterien wurden die Maßnahmen priorisiert. Die Ergebnisse des Vorhabens wurden in drei Fachgesprächen mit den in die einzelnen Abfallströme involvierten Akteuren diskutiert.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Beteiligt: Kumme, Sina (HerausgeberIn)
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    371934302
    Schriftenreihe: Texte / Umweltbundesamt ; 2022, 32
    Ressortforschungsplan of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection
    Schlagworte: circular economy; resource conservation; collection; Recycling; recovery; textiles; old tires
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 327 Seiten, 6,27 MB), Illustrationen
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    Report completed in: March 2021
  14. Building back fairer from the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa
    some first-step reforms in an era of fiscal constraints
    Autor*in: Arndt, Channing; Davies, Rob; Gabriel, Sherwin; Harris, Laurence; Sachs, Michael; Seventer, Dirk van
    Erschienen: 8 March 2022
    Verlag:  Economic Research and Statistics Department, South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria

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    Schriftenreihe: South African Reserve Bank working paper series ; WP, 22, 02
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; South Africa; recovery; growth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. The inexorable recoveries of unemployment
    Autor*in: Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was fairly tightly distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an... mehr

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    Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was fairly tightly distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. In the aftermath of a recession, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time, unemployment declines slowly and smoothly at a near-constant proportional rate. We show that similar properties hold for other measures of the US unemployment rate and for the unemployment rates of many other emerging and advanced countries.

     
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    hdl: 10419/252259
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15135
    Schlagworte: business cycle; recovery; unemployment; recession
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  16. The unemployed with jobs and without jobs
    Autor*in: Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups - those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group expanded... mehr

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    Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups - those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group expanded tremendously in April 2020, at the trough of the pandemic recession. They wait out periods of non-work with the understanding that their jobs still exist and that they will be recalled. We show that the resulting temporary-layoff unemployment mostly dissipated by the end of 2020. Potential workers without jobs constitute what we call jobless unemployment. Shocks that elevate jobless unemployment have much more persistent effects. Historical major adverse shocks, such as the financial crisis in 2008, created mostly jobless unemployment and consequently caused extended periods of elevated unemployment. Jobless unemployment reached its pandemic peak in November 2020, at 4.9%, modest by historical standards, and has declined at a faster-than-historical pace since.

     
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    hdl: 10419/252260
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15136
    Schlagworte: business cycle; recovery; unemployment; recession; layoffs; temporary layoff; recall; COVID-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020-23
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: 05 December 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16776
    Schlagworte: Scenario; inflation; Expectation; oil price; gasoline price; Household survey; Core; Pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Monetary policy and asset price overshooting: a rationale for the Wall/Main Street disconnect
    Autor*in: Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices... mehr

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    We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their steady-state levels consistent with current potential output). Overshooting leads to a temporary disconnect between the performance of financial markets and the real economy, but it accelerates the recovery. When there is a lower-bound constraint on the discount rate, overshooting becomes a concave and non-monotonic function of the output gap: the asset price boost is low for a deeply negative initial output gap, grows as the output gap improves over a range, and shrinks toward zero as the output gap improves further. This pattern also implies that good macroeconomic news is better news for asset prices when the output gap is more negative. Finally, we document that during the Covid-19 recovery, the policy-induced overshooting was large−sufficient to explain the high levels of stock and house prices in 2021.

     
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    hdl: 10419/252149
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9632 (2022)
    Schlagworte: monetary policy; aggregate demand inertia; lags; output gap; recovery; asset prices; overshooting; Wall/Main Street disconnect; Covid-19; interest rate lower bound; macroeconomic news; market bond portfolio; QE/LSAPs
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 76 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Globally engaged firms in the Covid-19 crisis
    Autor*in: Constantinescu, Cristina; Fernandes, Ana Margarida; Grover, Arti; Poupakis, Stavros; Reyes Ortega, Santiago
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper analyzes the initial impact and recovery of globally engaged firms from the COVID-19 crisis. It uses rich survey data of nearly 65,000 firm-year observations in 45 countries spanning three waves of data collection. The findings are... mehr

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    This paper analyzes the initial impact and recovery of globally engaged firms from the COVID-19 crisis. It uses rich survey data of nearly 65,000 firm-year observations in 45 countries spanning three waves of data collection. The findings are organized in a series of stylized facts, which suggest that although the pandemic had an immediate adverse impact on most firms, the globally engaged ones are recovering faster, possibly due to their higher capabilities. Among globally engaged firms, those directly involved with international markets show better recovery than the ones that were indirectly involved. These results mask wide variation by firm traits, sectoral attributes, and country characteristics. At the core of the recovery of globally engaged firms is their heightened response to the crisis by finding novel ways to adapt supply chains even in the presence of lockdowns and uncertainty. These firms swiftly digitalized, introduced new products and changed their markets and sources of inputs. Over and above their capabilities, global engagement cushions firms against shocks. Policymakers could therefore facilitate global linkages by providing information on potential markets and products, by making production flexible in terms of facilitating remote work, reducing the rigidity of contracts; and incentivizing financial institutions to issue instruments that reduce uncertainty risk.

     
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    hdl: 10419/260841
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9711 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Covid-19; crisis; firms; recovery; trade; exporters; global value chains
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Covid-19 learning loss and recovery
    panel data evidence from India
    Autor*in: Singh, Abhijeet; Romero, Mauricio; Muralidharan, Karthik
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We use a panel survey of ∼19,000 primary-school-aged children in rural Tamil Nadu to study "learning loss" after COVID-19-induced school closures, and the pace of recovery after schools reopened. Students tested in December 2021 (18 months after... mehr

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    We use a panel survey of ∼19,000 primary-school-aged children in rural Tamil Nadu to study "learning loss" after COVID-19-induced school closures, and the pace of recovery after schools reopened. Students tested in December 2021 (18 months after school closures) displayed learning deficits of ∼0.7σ in math and 0.34σ in language compared to identically-aged students in the same villages in 2019. Two-thirds of this deficit was made up within 6 months after school reopening. Further, while learning loss was regressive, the recovery was progressive. A government-run after-school remediation program contributed ∼24% of the cohort-level recovery, and likely aided the progressive recovery.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10031 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Covid-19; school closures; learning loss; recovery
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  21. A gender-sensitive earthquake recovery assessment using administrative and satellite data
    the Case of Indonesia's 2016 Aceh earthquake
    Autor*in: Akter, Sonia; Chairunissa, Talitha Fauzia; Pundit, Madhavi; Schröder, Marcel
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    This study presents a gender-specific assessment of medium-term disaster recovery following a series of earthquakes in Indonesia's Aceh Province on 7 December 2016. For this assessment, we combine the village-level nighttime radiance data obtained... mehr

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    This study presents a gender-specific assessment of medium-term disaster recovery following a series of earthquakes in Indonesia's Aceh Province on 7 December 2016. For this assessment, we combine the village-level nighttime radiance data obtained from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite instrument, distance from the earthquake epicenters collected from the United Nations Satellite Centre and the Village Potential Statistics (PODES) 2014 and 2018-administrative data collected by Indonesia's Central Statistics Bureau. We develop a novel index to represent women's welfare in the context of a disaster-the Women's Welfare after Disasters Index (W2DI). The nighttime radiance scores are used as indicators of overall economic welfare, while the W2DI specifically represents women's welfare. Using the difference-indifferences method, we compare the average monthly nighttime radiance and W2DI scores in earthquake-affected and unaffected villages of the Aceh Province before and after the 2016 earthquake series. Similar to studies using the nighttime radiance to monitor disaster recovery and relief, our findings reveal that, on average, the monthly nighttime radiance scores of the earthquake-affected villages 2 months after the earthquakes were brighter relative to the changes of the unaffected villages, implying an improvement in overall economic well-being of the earthquake-affected population. However, findings from the W2DI give us richer insights related to women's welfare. While an important domain of women's welfare-particularly, availability and access to the health infrastructure-improved significantly after the earthquake series, there was substantial deterioration in access to basic needs (e.g., water, fuel, sanitation). Such access plays an essential role in women's well-being as they are directly linked to women's role in the society. This study demonstrates that women in disaster-affected areas may experience a setback in some domains of their welfare in the medium term even when the economic welfare in the disaster-affected areas, in general, improved because of the gradual increase of human activities after reconstruction work occurred. The study also shows how a gender-specific disaster assessment tool can be developed and applied to monitor and assess disaster recovery for a subgroup of population and identify areas that require intervention.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 674 (December 2022)
    Schlagworte: Disaster relief; recovery; climate injustice; socioeconomic vulnerability; gender
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Windows of peace
    the effect of ceasefires on economic recovery
    Autor*in: Armand, Alex; Marending, Myriam; Vysotskaya, Galina
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    While much of the literature studies causes and consequences of war, the reverberations of peace have rarely been studied. By focusing on the universe of ceasefire agreements since 1993, we study the causal effect of peace on economic recovery using... mehr

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    While much of the literature studies causes and consequences of war, the reverberations of peace have rarely been studied. By focusing on the universe of ceasefire agreements since 1993, we study the causal effect of peace on economic recovery using a regression discontinuity in time approach. We estimate these impacts by temporally and spatially matching information on ceasefires with granular data about violence and economic recovery, allowing us to observe their dynamics at highly disaggregated levels and in temporal proximity to their entry into force. Overall, ceasefires have a marginal effect on violence, with their effectiveness in curbing hostilities being greater in areas where conflict is active closer in time to the agreement. These effects are driven by reductions in state-based conflicts, while other types of hostilities or civilian involvement remain unaffected. Using high-frequency data on night-time luminosity, we show that ceasefires have a positive impact on economic recovery, corresponding to an increase of 5.5 per cent when the agreement enters into place. Despite the effect being temporary, we find that it is not driven by external interventions, such as internationally funded new development projects or peace missions.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292673437
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    hdl: 10419/283731
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2023, 35
    Schlagworte: peace; conflict; agreement; ceasefire; development; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Recovering from COVID-19
    economic scenarios for South Africa
    Autor*in: Seventer, Dirk van; Arndt, Channing; Davies, Rob; Gabriel, Sherwin; Harris, Laurence; Robinson, Sherman
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA

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    Schriftenreihe: IFPRI discussion paper ; 02033 (July 2021)
    Schlagworte: Covid-19; South Africa; recovery; GDP; lockdown
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Building back fairer from the Covid-19 pandemic in South Africa
    some first step reforms in an era of fiscal constraints
    Autor*in: Arndt, Channing; Davies, Rob; Gabriel, Sherwin; Harris, Laurence; Sachs, Michael; Seventer, Dirk van
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA

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    Schriftenreihe: IFPRI discussion paper ; 02043 (September 2021)
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; South Africa; recovery; growth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Reforming the international trading system for recovery, resilience and inclusive development
    Autor*in: Davies, Rob; Kozul-Wright, Richard; Banga, Rashmi; Capaldo, Jeronim; Gallogly-Swan, Katie
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations, Geneva

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    Schriftenreihe: UNCTAD research paper ; No. 65
    Schlagworte: WTO reform; hyperglobalization; structural transformation; policy space; intellectual property rights; Covid-19; recovery; resilience,Agenda 2030
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)