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  1. Statistics and common sense
    Autor*in: Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Magnus, Jan R.; Yoo, Donghoon
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan

    Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 198
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    keine Fernleihe

     

    Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and try to understand why some probabilistic and statistical questions that baffled great minds a few hundred years are now easy, while other (relatively straightforward) questions are not only difficult but even counter-intuitive.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248609
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / The Institute of Social and Economic Research ; no. 1150
    Schlagworte: probability; statistical methods; experiment; common knowledge
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten)
  2. The Things Things Say
    Autor*in: Lamb, Jonathan
    Erschienen: 2011
    Verlag:  Princeton University Press, Princeton

    One of the new forms of prose fiction that emerged in the eighteenth century was the first-person narrative told by things such as coins, coaches, clothes, animals, or insects. This is an ambitious new account of the context in which these "it... mehr

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    Standort:
    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    One of the new forms of prose fiction that emerged in the eighteenth century was the first-person narrative told by things such as coins, coaches, clothes, animals, or insects. This is an ambitious new account of the context in which these "it narratives" became so popular. What does it mean when property declares independence of its owners and begins to move and speak? Jonathan Lamb addresses this and many other questions as he advances a new interpretation of these odd tales, from Defoe, Pope, Swift, Gay, and Sterne, to advertisements, still life paintings, and South Seas journals. Lamb emphasizes the subversive and even nonsensical quality of what things say; their interests are so radically different from ours that we either destroy or worship them. Existing outside systems of exchange and the priorities of civil society, things in fact advertise the dissident obscurity common to slave narratives all the way from Aesop and Phaedrus to Frederick Douglass and Primo Levi, a way of meaning only what is said, never saying what is meant. This is what Defoe's Roxana calls "the Sense of Things," and it is found in sounds, substances, and images rather than conventional signs. This major work illuminates not only "it narratives," but also eighteenth-century literature, the rise of the novel, and the genealogy of the slave narrative. --

     
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  3. Statistics and common sense
    Autor*in: Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Magnus, Jan R.; Yoo, Donghoon
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 432
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and try to understand why some probabilistic and statistical questions that baffled great minds a few hundred years are now easy, while other (relatively straightforward) questions are not only difficult but even counter-intuitive.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248788
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2021, 106
    Schlagworte: probability; statistical methods; experiment; common knowledge
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten)
  4. Estimating the mortgage default probability in Cyprus
    evidence using micro data
    Autor*in: Antoniou, Savvas; Evangelou, Ioanna; Kallenos, Theodosis; Michail, Nektarios
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  Central Bank of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 871
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    keine Fernleihe
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Central Bank of Cyprus ; 2022, 1
    Schlagworte: Eurosystem HFCS; survey; defaults; probability; households
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten)
  5. A functional representation of potential surprise ordering
    Autor*in: Kwak, Se Ho
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst

    In the history of economic thought, Shackle was one of the representative critics about probability based economic theory. Specifically, he constructed his own concept of subjective uncertainty called potential surprise to replace probability. In... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 179
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    In the history of economic thought, Shackle was one of the representative critics about probability based economic theory. Specifically, he constructed his own concept of subjective uncertainty called potential surprise to replace probability. In 1980s, the potential surprise is axiomatized by Katzner as Kolmogorov-styled measure defined on the -field over the set of possible states. In this paper, potential surprise function is reconstructed as the functional representation of potential surprise ordering on the space of hypotheses about future called monad.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283947
    Schriftenreihe: Economics Department working paper series ; 2022, 17
    Schlagworte: Shackle; uncertainty; probability
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Chance (odd) versus Wahrscheinlichkeit (probability)
    Autor*in: Huschens, Stefan
    Erschienen: 2017
    Verlag:  Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, Dresden ; Technische Universität Dresden

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Deutsch
    Medientyp: Elektronische Zeitschrift
    Format: Online
    ISSN: 0945-4802
    Weitere Identifier:
    RVK Klassifikation: QH 400 ; QH 400 ; QH 400
    Schriftenreihe: Dresdner Beiträge zu Quantitativen Verfahren ; 63/16
    Schlagworte: Wahrscheinlichkeit; Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung; Logit-Modell; Theorie; Epidemiologie; Epidemie
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Statistische Verteilung; (stw)Logit-Modell; (stw)Theorie; Chance; Wahrscheinlichkeit; Chancenverhaltnis; logistische Regression; odd; Odds-Ratio; Odds-Verhältnis; Quotenverhältnis; Chance; probability; opportunity; logistic regression; Odd; odds ratio; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur
    Umfang: Online-Ressource
    Bemerkung(en):
  7. Estimating the mortgage default probability in Cyprus
    evidence using micro data
    Autor*in: Antoniou, Savvas; Evangelou, Ioanna; Kallenos, Theodosis; Michail, Nektarios
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, [Nicosia]

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Economic policy papers ; no. 22, 01 (June 2022)
    Schlagworte: Eurosystem HFCS; survey; defaults; probability; households
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten)
  8. On measurable uncertainty and the fight for taking uncertainty seriously in economics
    Autor*in: Zappia, Carlo
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Università di Siena, [Siena]

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 444
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Quaderni del Dipartimento di economia politica e statistica ; n. 893 (dicembre 2022)
    Schlagworte: probability; uncertainty; decision-making
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. The resolution of uncertainty in the value and probability domains
    Autor*in: Lee, Eungik; Ngangoue, Kathleen M.; Schotter, Andrew
    Erschienen: January 2024
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We compare preferences for temporal resolution when uncertainty is resolved over a probability rather than a value. In various frameworks-e.g., Kreps and Porteus (1978)-, preferences over gradual versus one-shot resolution do not depend on whether... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 63
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    We compare preferences for temporal resolution when uncertainty is resolved over a probability rather than a value. In various frameworks-e.g., Kreps and Porteus (1978)-, preferences over gradual versus one-shot resolution do not depend on whether values or probabilities define the main object of uncertainty. In our experiment, however, most subjects resolved uncertain values gradually but uncertain probabilities all at once-both in the gain and loss frames. This systematic discrepancy motivates an explanation for it that we call "process utility", which highlights the importance of information processing when deducing revealed preferences for temporal resolution from choice data.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/295987
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10898 (2024)
    Schlagworte: resolution of uncertainty; probability; gradual resolution; one-shot resolution; process utility; non-instrumental information; Kreps-Porteus
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen