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  1. Turkey
    2021 Article IV consultation : press release; staff report; and statement by the Executive Director for Turkey
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    In Turkey, as in other countries, the human and economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been severe. Thousands of lives have been tragically lost and many livelihoods compromised. The initial policy response to the pandemic-and subsequent sharp... mehr

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    In Turkey, as in other countries, the human and economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been severe. Thousands of lives have been tragically lost and many livelihoods compromised. The initial policy response to the pandemic-and subsequent sharp growth rebound-set Turkey apart from its peers. Rapid monetary and credit expansion and large liquidity support meant that Turkey was among the few countries to experience positive economic growth in 2020. But these policies also aggravated pre-existing economic and financial vulnerabilities. Higher inflation, increased dollarization, and a large shift in the current account position increased pressure on the lira and gave rise to heavy foreign exchange sales, which led in turn to steep reserve declines from already-low levels. A policy shift in late 2020-mainly towards tighter and more transparent monetary policy and slower credit growth-was both welcome and necessary. But the durability and depth of the shift were called into question in March 2021, following the change in central bank leadership, as the lira weakened markedly and interest rate spreads widened

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9781513573175
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF country reports ; 21, 110
    Schlagworte: credit policy; fiscal policy coordination; IFC portfolio implementation; FX rediscount credit repayment; IMF staff calculation; policy uncertainty; COVID-19; State-owned banks; Inflation; Global; Europe; International Agreements; International Organizations; Monetary Policy; Observance
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 96 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. From subsidies to loans: the effects of a national student finance reform on the choices of secondary school students
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We analyse the effects of a national student finance reform in the Netherlands, which replaced universal subsidies for higher education students by low-interest loans. We show that this reform had a large impact on education choices of secondary... mehr

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    We analyse the effects of a national student finance reform in the Netherlands, which replaced universal subsidies for higher education students by low-interest loans. We show that this reform had a large impact on education choices of secondary school students, lowering their enrolments in college-preparing tracks and increasing the share of students specializing in STEM subjects. The reform also affected the living arrangements of new college entrants. Our findings highlight that secondary school students respond to the modes of higher education financing well ahead of their graduation, and that financial aid uncertainty alone can deter many from pursuing higher education.

     

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    hdl: 10419/245737
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14686
    Schlagworte: Netherlands; higher education; student finance; financial aid; policy uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. A narrative approach to creating instruments with unstructured and voluminous text
    an application to policy uncertainty
    Autor*in: Ryan, Michael
    Erschienen: November 2020
    Verlag:  University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper in economics / University of Waikato ; 20, 10
    Schlagworte: Latent Dirichlet allocation; narrative identification; policy uncertainty; Proxy SVAR
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. State-level economic policy uncertainty
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (ΕPU-S), one... mehr

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    We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (ΕPU-S), one that captures national and international sources (EPU-N), and a composite index that captures both. EPU-S rises around gubernatorial elections and own-state episodes like the California electricity crisis of 2000-01 and the Kansas tax experiment of 2012. EPU-N rises around presidential elections and in response to 9-11, Gulf Wars I and II, the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis, the 2012 fiscal cliff episode, and federal government shutdowns. Close elections elevate policy uncertainty much more than the average election. The COVID-19 pandemic drove huge increases in policy uncertainty and unemployment, more so in states with stricter government-mandated lockdowns. VAR models fit to pre-COVID data imply that upward shocks to own-state EPU foreshadow weaker economic activity in the state.

     

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    hdl: 10419/263372
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15156
    Schlagworte: policy uncertainty; elections and uncertainty; COVID-19; state-level economic performance; unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. People's Republic of China
    2021 Article IV consultation : press release; staff report; and statement by the Executive Director for the People’s Republic of China
    Erschienen: January 2022
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    China's recovery is well advanced-but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real... mehr

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    China's recovery is well advanced-but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China's climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to "high-quality"-balanced, inclusive and green-growth

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9798400201356
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF country report ; no. 22, 21
    Schlagworte: outbound direct investments; policy effort; macro leverage ratio; shifting Policy; policy uncertainty; climate strategy; Climate finance; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations; Monetary Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 135 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Brexit
    trade diversion due to trade policy uncertainty
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2140
    Schlagworte: policy uncertainty; Brexit; trade diversion
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Yield Curve
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Swiss Finance Institute, Geneva

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    Schriftenreihe: Research paper series / Swiss Finance Institute ; no 22, 36
    Schlagworte: Term structure; yield volatility curve; hump-shaped volatility; policy uncertainty; bond risk premia
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Uncertainty spill-overs
    when policy and financial realms overlap
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, Department of Economics, Bologna, Italy

    No matter its source, financial- or policy-related, uncertainty can feed onto itself, concealing its true origin and leading to identification challenges in empirical applications. We add to the existing stock of analytical methods able to... mehr

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    No matter its source, financial- or policy-related, uncertainty can feed onto itself, concealing its true origin and leading to identification challenges in empirical applications. We add to the existing stock of analytical methods able to disentangle among various types of uncertainty shocks, by generalising an identification approach based on magnitude restrictions to a multi-country setting. Within the Euro Area, we find evidence of sizable spill-overs arising from country-specific uncertainty shocks, with financial realm being a more important source than the policy realm. By leveraging on the flexibility of our identification strategy, we quantify the valuation 'mistakes' that arise from the inability to separate uncertainty shock types within a given country; we then show that the implicit under/over-valuations can be related to some simple cross-sectional indicators of financial and political stability, especially before the 2008/2009 crisis. A comparison between the responses of sovereign yields within and outside the Euro Area suggests strong within institutional arrangements and risk-sharing mechanisms that can blur the thin separation line between uncertainty shock types. In this context, we find that ECB reacted to those identified uncertainty shocks with the highest potential to spill over abroad, thus filling a leadership vacuum within the Euro Area.

     

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    hdl: 10419/282296
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This draft: July 2022
    Schriftenreihe: Quaderni - working paper DSE / Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, Department of Economics ; no 1174
    Schlagworte: policy uncertainty; financial integration; global VAR; unconventional monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Communicating social security reform
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen

    Despite its centrality in monetary policy, communication is not a focus in social security reform. We investigate the potential for active communication to dissipate apparently widespread public confusion about the future of social security. We... mehr

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    Despite its centrality in monetary policy, communication is not a focus in social security reform. We investigate the potential for active communication to dissipate apparently widespread public confusion about the future of social security. We implement a simple information treatment in which we randomly provide survey respondents access to the longevity-based eligibility age implemented by reform that Denmark launched in 2006. Absent treatment, younger workers not only have biased beliefs, expecting to become eligible for social security earlier than policy makers intend, but also are highly uncertain about eligibility age. The information treatment eliminates the bias, suggesting it results from misunderstanding. Yet it has no influence on uncertainty, suggesting this is driven by unavoidable demographic and political uncertainties. Our results highlight the value of communication strategies and belief measurement as policy instruments outside the monetary policy arena.

     

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    hdl: 10419/268922
    Schriftenreihe: CEBI working paper series ; 22, 19
    Schlagworte: social security; belief updating; information treatment; policy uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Communicating social security reform
    Erschienen: 22 November 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17687
    Schlagworte: social security; belief updating; information treatment; policy uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten)
  11. Oil shocks and investor attention
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, [Waterloo, Ontario]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis ; wp 22, 13
    Schlagworte: Search Volume Index; investor attention; oil price; stock market; policy uncertainty; timevarying parameter VAR; stochastic volatility; dynamic factor model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Reassessing investment dynamics
    newer insights into leverage and investment of the Indian corporate sector
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  Reserve Bank of India, Department of Economic and Policy Research, [Mumbai]

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    Schriftenreihe: RBI working paper series ; WPS (DEPR) 2021, 5
    Schlagworte: Investment; GDP; accelerator; business investment; policy uncertainty; business expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Believe me when I say green!
    heterogeneous expectations and climate policy uncertainty
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  LEM, Laboratory of Economics and Management, Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy

    We develop a dynamic model where heterogeneous firms take investment decisions depending on their beliefs on future carbon prices. A policy-maker announces a forward-looking carbon price schedule but can decide to default on its plans if perceived... mehr

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    We develop a dynamic model where heterogeneous firms take investment decisions depending on their beliefs on future carbon prices. A policy-maker announces a forward-looking carbon price schedule but can decide to default on its plans if perceived transition risks are high. We show that weak policy commitment, especially when combined with ambitious mitigation announcements, can trap the economy into a vicious circle of credibility loss, carbon-intensive investments and increasing risk perceptions, ultimately leading to a failure of the transition. The presence of behavioural frictions and heterogeneity - both in capital investment choices and in the assessment of the policy-maker's credibility - has strong non-linear effects on the transition dynamics and the emergence of "high-carbon traps". We identify analytical conditions leading to a successful transition and provide a numerical application for the EU economy.

     

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: March 2023
    Schriftenreihe: LEM working paper series ; 2023, 12 (March 2023)
    Schlagworte: Beliefs; behavioural macroeconomics; credibility; investment decision-making; heterogeneous expectations; low-carbon transition; policy uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. The impact of policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment
    micro-evidence from Japan's international investment agreements
    Erschienen: March, 2022
    Verlag:  Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Kyoto City, Japan

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 21, 010
    Schlagworte: policy uncertainty; international investment agreements; negative lists; foreign direct investment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Navigating uncertainty
    investment dynamics and beyond
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, [London, United Kingdom]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ; no. 279
    Schlagworte: policy uncertainty; investment; decentralization
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2232
    Schlagworte: forecasting; social unrest; social conflict; policy uncertainty; forecasting GDP; natural language processing; geopolitical risk
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Turkey
    2021 Article IV consultation : press release; staff report; and statement by the Executive Director for Turkey
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    In Turkey, as in other countries, the human and economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been severe. Thousands of lives have been tragically lost and many livelihoods compromised. The initial policy response to the pandemic-and subsequent sharp... mehr

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    In Turkey, as in other countries, the human and economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been severe. Thousands of lives have been tragically lost and many livelihoods compromised. The initial policy response to the pandemic-and subsequent sharp growth rebound-set Turkey apart from its peers. Rapid monetary and credit expansion and large liquidity support meant that Turkey was among the few countries to experience positive economic growth in 2020. But these policies also aggravated pre-existing economic and financial vulnerabilities. Higher inflation, increased dollarization, and a large shift in the current account position increased pressure on the lira and gave rise to heavy foreign exchange sales, which led in turn to steep reserve declines from already-low levels. A policy shift in late 2020-mainly towards tighter and more transparent monetary policy and slower credit growth-was both welcome and necessary. But the durability and depth of the shift were called into question in March 2021, following the change in central bank leadership, as the lira weakened markedly and interest rate spreads widened

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513573175
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF country reports ; 21, 110
    Schlagworte: credit policy; fiscal policy coordination; IFC portfolio implementation; FX rediscount credit repayment; IMF staff calculation; policy uncertainty; COVID-19; State-owned banks; Inflation; Global; Europe; International Agreements; International Organizations; Monetary Policy; Observance
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 96 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. People's Republic of China
    2021 Article IV consultation : press release; staff report; and statement by the Executive Director for the People’s Republic of China
    Erschienen: January 2022
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    China's recovery is well advanced-but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real... mehr

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    China's recovery is well advanced-but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China's climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to "high-quality"-balanced, inclusive and green-growth

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9798400201356
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF country report ; no. 22, 21
    Schlagworte: outbound direct investments; policy effort; macro leverage ratio; shifting Policy; policy uncertainty; climate strategy; Climate finance; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations; Monetary Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 135 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Did the renewable fuel standard shift market expectations of the price of ethanol?
    Erschienen: 2016
    Verlag:  Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg, Frankfurt am Main

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    Schriftenreihe: Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 563
    Schlagworte: Biokraftstoff; Erneuerbare Energien; Wirkungsanalyse; Risikoprämie
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Biokraftstoff; (stw)Förderung erneuerbarer Energien; (stw)Erneuerbare Energie; (stw)Wirkungsanalyse; (stw)Risikoprämie; (stw)USA; biofuels; policy uncertainty; term structure of price expectations; price shocks; market integration; anticipation; storage demand; risk premium; crude oil; gasoline; corn; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur
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  20. A new economic policy uncertainty index for Spain
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 1906
    Schlagworte: economic uncertainty; policy uncertainty; uncertainty shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. The impact of policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment in services
    evidence from firm-level data and the role of regional trade agreements
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  RIETI, [Tokyo, Japan]

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    Schriftenreihe: RIETI discussion paper series ; 23-E, 021 (March 2023)
    Schlagworte: policy uncertainty; service chapters in regional trade agreements; binding commitments; FDI in services
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. To what degree does policy uncertainty affect foreign direct investment?
    micro-evidence from Japan's international investment agreements
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  RIETI, [Tokyo, Japan]

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    Schriftenreihe: RIETI discussion paper series ; 20-E, 022 (March 2020)
    Schlagworte: policy uncertainty; international investment agreements; foreign direct investment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Believe me when I say green!
    heterogeneous expectations and climate policy uncertainty
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy working paper ; no. 419
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 395
    Schlagworte: beliefs; behavioural macroeconomics; credibility; investment decision-making; heterogeneous expectations; low-carbon transition; policy uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten)
  24. The energy efficiency gap and barriers to investments
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    This study investigates the energy efficiency (EE) gap, referring to private agents who are not making seemingly profitable investments to reduce energy use. We deploy a questionnaire among firms in the Netherlands in which we ask them about... mehr

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    This study investigates the energy efficiency (EE) gap, referring to private agents who are not making seemingly profitable investments to reduce energy use. We deploy a questionnaire among firms in the Netherlands in which we ask them about investment behavior and barriers to investing in EE. A set of 16 barriers is constructed based on the literature. We find that most firms (70%) have made EE investments in the past five years, and that the median firm has saved 10% of its energy use. The remaining profitable EE investment opportunities still leave room for another 15% of energy savings at the median firm. We find that uncertainty about future policies ranks as the leading barrier to EE investments, followed by lock-ins in current equipment, and energy price uncertainty. Especially energy-intensive firms indicate the importance of policy uncertainty. Past policies have not been successful in addressing these barriers. Additionally, we find that a firm's network can be an important channel for obtaining EE investment knowledge.

     

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    hdl: 10419/273854
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2023, 043
    Schlagworte: energy efficiency gap; barriers; investment behavior; technology adoption; policy uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Policy uncertainty and investment in Spain
    Erschienen: 2018
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 1848
    Schlagworte: corporate investment; policy uncertainty; financial frictions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen