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  1. Measurement error in earnings data: replication of Meijer, Rohwedder, and Wansbeek’s mixture model approach to combining survey and register data
    Autor*in: Jenkins, Stephen; Rios-Avila, Fernando
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Meijer, Rohwedder, and Wansbeek (MRW, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2012) develop methods for prediction of a single earnings figure per worker from mixture factor models fitted using earnings data from multiple linked data sources. MRW... mehr

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    Meijer, Rohwedder, and Wansbeek (MRW, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2012) develop methods for prediction of a single earnings figure per worker from mixture factor models fitted using earnings data from multiple linked data sources. MRW apply their method using parameter estimates of Kapteyn and Ypma's mixture factor model (KY, Journal of Labour Economics 2007) fitted to earnings data for Swedish workers aged 50+. First, we replicate MRW's empirical analysis using the Swedish model estimates. Second, we check the generality of their empirical finding with a new application. Using estimates of a KY model fit to a linked dataset on earnings for UK employees of all ages, we confirm that MRW's principal findings about the performance of their various predictors of true earnings also hold in this different setting.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232924
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14172
    Schlagworte: earnings prediction; measurement error; mixture factor model; labour earnings; Kapteyn-Ypma model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Teacher bias or measurement error bias?
    evidence from track recommendations
    Autor*in: Huizen, Thomas van
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  U.S.E. Research Institute, Utrecht, The Netherlands

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    Schriftenreihe: U.S.E. working paper series ; nr: 21, 13
    Schlagworte: teacher bias; discrimination; socio-economic inequality; measurement error
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten)
  3. We do not know the population of every country in the world for the past two thousand years
    Autor*in: Guinnane, Timothy
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Economists have reported econometric results that rely on estimates of the population of every country in the world for the past two thousand or more years. The underlying source is usually McEvedy and Jones' Atlas of World Population History,... mehr

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    Economists have reported econometric results that rely on estimates of the population of every country in the world for the past two thousand or more years. The underlying source is usually McEvedy and Jones' Atlas of World Population History, published in 1978. The McEvedy and Jones data have important weaknesses. The reported populations for years before 1500 are, for most countries, little more than guesses, as are many estimates for more recent times. Research relying on McEvedy and Jones cannot take advantage of improved estimates reported since 1978. McEvedy and Jones often infer population sizes from their view of a particular economy, making their estimates poor proxies for economic growth. Although some economists treat the African data as pertaining to modern nation-states, in most cases it is not. With a few welcome exceptions, economists using this source do not take the measurement error issues seriously. Results that rest on McEvedy and Jones are unreliable. The willingness to rely on such data discourages effort to provide serious improvements.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245423
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9242 (2021)
    Schlagworte: long-run growth; historical populations; measurement error; McEvedy and Jones
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The implications of self-reported body weight and height for measurement error in BMI
    Autor*in: Davillas, Apostolos; Jones, Andrew M.
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We designed an experiment to explore the extent of measurement error in body mass index (BMI), when based on self-reported body weight and height. We find that there is a systematic age gradient in the reporting error in BMI, while there is limited... mehr

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    We designed an experiment to explore the extent of measurement error in body mass index (BMI), when based on self-reported body weight and height. We find that there is a systematic age gradient in the reporting error in BMI, while there is limited evidence of systematic associations with gender, education and income. This is reassuring evidence for the use of self-reported BMI in studies that use it as an outcome, for example, to analyse socioeconomic gradients in obesity. However, our results suggest a complex structure of non-classical measurement error in BMI, depending on both individuals' and within-household peers' true BMI. This may bias studies that use BMI based on self-reported data as a regressor. Common methods to mitigate reporting error in BMI using predictions from corrective equations do not fully eliminate reporting heterogeneity associated with individual and within-household true BMI. Overall, the presence of non-classical error in BMI highlights the importance of collecting measured body weight and height data in large social science datasets.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245746
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14695
    Schlagworte: BMI; experiment; measurement error; reporting bias
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Inference on a distribution from noisy draws
    Autor*in: Jochmans, Koen; Weidner, Martin
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  Toulouse School of Economics, [Toulouse]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Toulouse School of Economics ; no 1275
    Schlagworte: bias correction; estimation noise; nonparametric inference; measurement error; panel data; regression to the mean; shrinkage
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Inference on a distribution from noisy draws
    Autor*in: Jochmans, Koen; Weidner, Martin
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Cemmap, Centre for Microdata Methuods and Practice, The Institute for Fiscal Studies, Department of Economics, UCL, [London]

    We consider a situation where the distribution of a random variable is being estimated by the empirical distribution of noisy measurements of that variable. This is common practice in, for example, teacher value-added models and other fixed-effect... mehr

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    We consider a situation where the distribution of a random variable is being estimated by the empirical distribution of noisy measurements of that variable. This is common practice in, for example, teacher value-added models and other fixed-effect models for panel data. We use an asymptotic embedding where the noise shrinks with the sample size to calculate the leading bias in the empirical distribution arising from the presence of noise. The leading bias in the empirical quantile function is equally obtained. These calculations are new in the literature, where only results on smooth functionals such as the mean and variance have been derived. We provide both analytical and jackknife corrections that recenter the limit distribution and yield confidence intervals with correct coverage in large samples. Our approach can be connected to corrections for selection bias and shrinkage estimation and is to be contrasted with deconvolution. Simulation results confirm the much-improved sampling behavior of the corrected estimators. An empirical illustration on heterogeneity in deviations from the law of one price is equally provided.

     
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    hdl: 10419/260378
    Schriftenreihe: Cemmap working paper ; CWP21, 42
    Schlagworte: bias correction; estimation noise; nonparametric inference; measurement error; panel data; regression to the mean; shrinkage
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Fearless woman: financial literacy and stock market participation
    Autor*in: Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Alessie, Rob; Lusardi, Annamaria; Rooij, Maarten van
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  De Nederlandsche Bank NV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / De Nederlandsche Bank NV ; no. 708 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: financial knowledge; gender gap; financial decision making; confidence; measurement error; latent class model; finite mixture model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Fearless woman
    financial literacy and stock market participation
    Autor*in: Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Alessie, Rob; Lusardi, Annamaria; Rooij, Maarten van
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany

    Women are less financially literate than men. It is unclear whether this gap reflects a lack of knowledge or, rather, a lack of confidence. Our survey experiment shows that women tend to disproportionately respond “do not know” to questions measuring... mehr

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    Women are less financially literate than men. It is unclear whether this gap reflects a lack of knowledge or, rather, a lack of confidence. Our survey experiment shows that women tend to disproportionately respond “do not know” to questions measuring financial knowledge, but when this response option is unavailable, they often choose the correct answer. We estimate a latent class model and predict the probability that respondents truly know the correct answers. We find that about one-third of the financial literacy gender gap can be explained by women’s lower confidence levels. Both financial knowledge and confidence explain stock market participation.

     
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    hdl: 10419/231301
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: 2.3.2021
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 21, 015 (03/2021)
    Schlagworte: financial knowledge; gender gap; financial decision making; confidence; measurement error; latent class model; finite mixture model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Errors in reporting and imputation of government benefits and their implications
    Autor*in: Celhay, Pablo A.; Meyer, Bruce D.; Mittag, Nikolas
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We document the extent, nature, and consequences of survey errors for receipt of cash welfare and SNAP in three major U.S. household surveys linked to administrative program records. Our results confirm high rates of misreporting of program receipt,... mehr

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    We document the extent, nature, and consequences of survey errors for receipt of cash welfare and SNAP in three major U.S. household surveys linked to administrative program records. Our results confirm high rates of misreporting of program receipt, particularly failure to report receipt. The surveys inaccurately capture patterns of participation in multiple programs, even though there is little evidence of program confusion. Error rates are higher among imputed observations, which also account for a large share of false positive errors. Many household characteristics have significant effects on errors in reporting receipt, both false positives and false negatives. We find large differences in survey errors by race, ethnicity, income and other household characteristics. We provide evidence on the consequences of these errors for models of program receipt. Estimated effects of income and race are noticeably biased. We then examine error due to item non-response and imputation, as well as whether imputation improves estimates. Item non-respondents have higher receipt rates than the population, even conditional on many covariates. The assumptions for consistent estimates in multivariate models fail both when excluding item non-respondents and when using the imputed values. In binary choice models of program receipt, estimates from the linked data favor excluding item non-respondents rather than using their imputed values. The biases in each case are well predicted by the error patterns we document, so such analyses can help researchers make more informed decisions on the use of imputed values.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236427
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14396
    Schlagworte: linked survey data; measurement error; item non-response; imputation; program receipt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten)
  10. Finite mixture models for linked survey and administrative data: estimation and post-estimation
    Autor*in: Jenkins, Stephen; Rios-Avila, Fernando
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Researchers use finite mixture models to analyze linked survey and administrative data on labour earnings (or similar variables), taking account of various types of measurement error in each data source. Different combinations of error-ridden and/or... mehr

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    Researchers use finite mixture models to analyze linked survey and administrative data on labour earnings (or similar variables), taking account of various types of measurement error in each data source. Different combinations of error-ridden and/or error-free observations characterize latent classes. Latent class probabilities depend on the probabilities of the different types of error. We introduce a set of Stata commands to fit a general class of finite mixture models to fit to linked survey-administrative data We also provide post-estimation commands for assessment of reliability, marginal effects, data simulation, and prediction of hybrid earnings variables that combine information from both data sources.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236435
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14404
    Schlagworte: linked survey and administrative data; measurement error; finite mixture models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten)
  11. Reconciling reports: modelling employment earnings and measurement errors using linked survey and administrative data
    Autor*in: Jenkins, Stephen; Rios-Avila, Fernando
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We contribute new UK evidence about measurement errors and employment earnings to a field dominated by findings about the USA. We develop and apply new econometric models for linked survey and administrative data that generalize those of Kapteyn and... mehr

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    We contribute new UK evidence about measurement errors and employment earnings to a field dominated by findings about the USA. We develop and apply new econometric models for linked survey and administrative data that generalize those of Kapteyn and Ypma (Journal of Labor Economics, 2007). Our models incorporate mean-reverting measurement error in administrative data in addition to linkage mismatch and mean-reverting survey measurement error and 'reference period' error, while also allowing error distributions to vary across individuals. Annualised survey earnings underestimate true annual earnings on average. Mean-reversion in survey measurement errors is absent. Both earnings sources underestimate true earnings inequality. The survey earning measure is more reliable than the administrative data earnings measure, but hybrid earnings predictors based on both sources are distinctly more reliable than either source-specific measure. The models with heterogeneous measurement error distributions indicate how data quality may be improved. For example, for survey quality, our results highlight how respondents showing payslips to interviewers have smaller survey error variances. For administrative data, our results suggest that greater error variances are associated with non-standard jobs, private sector jobs, and employers without good payroll systems.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236436
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14405
    Schlagworte: measurement error; earnings; survey data; administrative data; finite mixture models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Heterogeneity, measurement error, and misallocation in African agriculture
    a comment
    Autor*in: Aragon, Fernando M.; Restuccia, Diego; Rud, Juan Pablo
    Erschienen: May 27, 2021
    Verlag:  [University of Toronto, Department of Economics], [Toronto]

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    Schriftenreihe: [Working paper] / [Department of Economics, University of Toronto ; 697
    Schlagworte: Plot; farm; misallocation; measurement error; agriculture; land institutions; distortions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Nonparametric estimation of additive model with errors-in-variables
    Autor*in: Dong, Hao; Otsu, Taisuke
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  LSE, STICERD, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Econometrics paper ; paper number EM/2018/600
    Schlagworte: additive model; measurement error; deconvolution
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (39 Seiten)
  14. On the uniform convergence of deconvolution estimators from repeated measurements
    Autor*in: Kurisu, Daisuke; Otsu, Taisuke
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  LSE, STICERD, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Econometrics paper ; paper number EM/2019/604
    Schlagworte: measurement error; deconvolution; uniform convergence
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (15 Seiten)
  15. Differencing as a consistency test for the within estimator
    Autor*in: Spierdijk, Laura; Wansbeek, Tom
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  Research Institute SOM, Faculty of Economics & Business, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands

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    Schriftenreihe: [SOM research reports] / SOM ; 2021, 006-EEF
    Schlagworte: linear panel regression; within estimator; differences estimators; measurement error
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. On relaxing the distributional assumption of stochastic frontier models
    Autor*in: Noh, Hohsuk; Van Keilegom, Ingrid
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  KU Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen, Leuven, België

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    Schriftenreihe: KBI ; KBI_19, 05
    Schlagworte: frontier function; measurement error; inefficiency distribution; productivity analysis; stochastic frontier models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten)
  17. Mind the wealth gap
    a new allocation method to match micro and macro statistics on household wealth
    Autor*in: Cantarella, Michele; Neri, Andrea; Ranalli, Maria Giovanna
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Banca d'Italia, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; number 646 (October 2021)
    Schlagworte: wealth distribution; non-response; measurement error; Pareto distribution; survey calibration; household finance and consumption survey
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Is inconsistent reporting of self-assessed health persistent and systematic?
    evidence from the UKHLS
    Autor*in: Davillas, Apostolos; Silva, Víctor Hugo de Oliveira; Jones, Andrew M.
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We capitalise on an opportunity in the UK Household Longitudinal Study, which asks respondents the same SAH question with identical wording two times. This is done once with a self-completion and once with an open interview mode within the same... mehr

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    We capitalise on an opportunity in the UK Household Longitudinal Study, which asks respondents the same SAH question with identical wording two times. This is done once with a self-completion and once with an open interview mode within the same household interview over four waves. We estimate multivariate models to explore which individual and household-level characteristics are systematically relevant for the likelihood and frequency of inconsistent reporting across the two modes. We find evidence of some inconsistency in reporting; 11%-24% of those who reported a particular SAH category in the self-completion mode reported inconsistently in the open interview. The probability of inconsistency is systematic and influenced by an individual's demographics, education, income, employment status, cognitive and non-cognitive skills. The same characteristics are also systematically associated with the frequency of inconsistent reporting across four UKHLS waves. Analysis of the implications of reporting inconsistencies shows no impact of SAH measurement on the magnitude of the association between income and health, estimated separately using the two SAH measures. A set of dimensions of people's physiological and biological health, captured using biomarkers, is associated equally with both SAH measures, suggesting that reporting inconsistencies in SAH may be driven by mechanisms other than people's underlying health.

     
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    hdl: 10419/252209
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15085
    Schlagworte: measurement error; reporting bias; self-assessed health; UKHLS
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Income source confusion using the SILC
    Autor*in: Bollinger, Christopher R.; Tasseva, Iva V.
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Institute for Social and Economic Research, [Colchester]

    We use a unique panel of household survey data - the Austrian version of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) for 2008-2011 - which have been linked to individual administrative records on both state unemployment... mehr

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    We use a unique panel of household survey data - the Austrian version of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) for 2008-2011 - which have been linked to individual administrative records on both state unemployment benefits and earnings. We assess the extent and structure of misreporting across similar benefits and between benefits and earnings. We document that many respondents fail to report participation in one or more of the unemployment programmes. Moreover, they inflate earnings for periods when they are unemployed but receiving unemployment compensation. To demonstrate the impact of income source confusion on estimators we estimate standard Mincer wage equations. Since unemployment is associated with lower education, the reports of unemployment benefits as earnings bias downward the returns to education. Failure to report unemployment benefits also leads to substantial sample bias when selecting on these benefits, as one might in estimating the returns to job training.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267157
    Schriftenreihe: ISER working paper series ; no. 2022, 4 (March 2022)
    Schlagworte: income source confusion; survey and administrative data; measurement error
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten)
  20. Currency risk premia redux
    Autor*in: Nucera, Federico; Sarno, Lucio; Zinna, Gabriele
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  Emerging Markets Group, Bayes Business School, City University, London

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    Schriftenreihe: EMG working paper series ; WP-EMG-2021, 03
    Schlagworte: Currency risk premia; asset pricing; omitted factors; measurement error
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 106 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Measuring honesty and explaining adulteration in naturally occurring markets
    Autor*in: Rustagi, Devesh; Kroell, Markus
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  CEDEX, Centre for Decision Research & Experimental Economics, Nottingham

    There is astounding variation in product quality sold in markets even when quality is difficult to ascertain and rules are poorly enforced. We investigate whether sellers differ in innate honesty (incur private cost to provide good quality) and... mehr

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    There is astounding variation in product quality sold in markets even when quality is difficult to ascertain and rules are poorly enforced. We investigate whether sellers differ in innate honesty (incur private cost to provide good quality) and whether this explains the variation in quality. Our study takes place in milk markets in India, where milkmen collude on price, customer rarely switch, and it is difficult to establish reputation. We invite milkmen to take part in a novel behavioral experiment to measure dishonesty. We then measure quality objectively as the percentage of water added to a liter of milk sold to customers. Our results show that dishonest milkmen add significantly more water to milk. Evidence from milk- testing tournament confirms that milk quality is difficult to verify. These results suggest that some sellers are willing to forego monetary gains to provide good quality in return for utility from being honest, even in an environment that encourages cheating.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261241
    Schriftenreihe: CeDEx discussion paper series ; no. 2022, 03
    Schlagworte: Honesty; adulteration; milk markets; asymmetric information; measurement error; India
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Bandwidth selection for nonparametric regression with errors-in-variables
    Autor*in: Dong, Hao; Otsu, Taisuke; Taylor, Luke
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  LSE, STICERD, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Econometrics papers / LSE ; STICERD ; paper number EM620
    Schlagworte: bandwidth selection; measurement error; bootstrap
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (25 Seiten)
  23. Can the risky investment game predict real world investments?
    Autor*in: Holden, Stein Terje; Tilahun, Mesfin
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, [Ås, Norway]

    The incentivized risky investment game has become a popular tool in lab-in-the-field experiments for its simplicity and ease of comprehension compared to some of the more complex Multiple Choice List approaches that have been more commonly used in... mehr

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    The incentivized risky investment game has become a popular tool in lab-in-the-field experiments for its simplicity and ease of comprehension compared to some of the more complex Multiple Choice List approaches that have been more commonly used in laboratory experiments. We use a field experiment to test whether the game can predict real world investments by the same subjects based on the assumption that the game can provide a reliable measure of risk tolerance and that risk tolerance is an important predictor of investment behavior. The results show that the game cannot predict investment behavior in our sample. There are two reasons for this. First, we find substantial measurement error and low correlation when the game is repeated one year later for the same subjects. Measurement error is so large in our sample that the "obviously related instrumental variable" (ORIV) approach of Gillen, Snowberg and Yariv (2019) could not remedy the problem. Second, the game appears to suffer from low asset integration due to narrow bracketing, explaining its limited predictive power and the failure to detect attenuation bias due to measurement error. Subjects'cognitive memory of the game played one year earlier is strongly positively related to investment intensity in the game and this result is much enhanced when correcting for the endogeneity of cognitive memory

     
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    ISBN: 9788274903029
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    hdl: 10419/262027
    Schriftenreihe: Centre for Land Tenure Studies working paper ; 22, 05
    Schlagworte: risky investment game; field experiment; prediction; measurement error; cognitive memory; Ethiopia
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 17 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Assessing misallocation in agriculture: plots versus farms
    Autor*in: Aragon, Fernando M.; Restuccia, Diego; Rud, Juan Pablo
    Erschienen: February 04, 2022
    Verlag:  [University of Toronto, Department of Economics], [Toronto]

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    Schriftenreihe: [Working paper] / [Department of Economics, University of Toronto ; 718
    Schlagworte: Plot; farm; misallocation; measurement error; agriculture; distortions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Later one knows better
    the over-reporting of short-time work in firm surveys
    Autor*in: Kagerl, Christian; Schierholz, Malte; Fitzenberger, Bernd
    Erschienen: 27 May 2022
    Verlag:  Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency, Nürnberg, Germany

    Short-time work (STW) in Germany allows for a lot of flexibility in actual usage. Ex ante, firms notify the Federal Employment Agency about the total number of employees eligible, and, up to the total granted, firms can flexibly choose how many... mehr

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    Short-time work (STW) in Germany allows for a lot of flexibility in actual usage. Ex ante, firms notify the Federal Employment Agency about the total number of employees eligible, and, up to the total granted, firms can flexibly choose how many employees actually use STW. In firm-level surveys, which provide timely information on STW in Germany, over-reporting of the number of employees on STW is prevalent. This study explores reasons for STW over-reporting based on a high-frequency and low-cost survey initiated during the Covid19 pandemic (BeCovid) and a low-frequency and high-cost long-running survey (BP). Merging administrative records on actual use of STW, firms that use STW prove more likely to participate in the BeCovid survey. Multiestablishment firms overreport STW because they tend to report STW for all subfirms. The BP uses more interview time and confirms the over-reporting of STW use in the survey month, while - crucially - the over-reporting drops sharply with a few months of retrospection. Das deutsche Instrument der Kurzarbeit bietet Betrieben viel Flexibilität bei der Inanspruchnahme. Betriebe können ex ante Kurzarbeitergeld für ihre Belegschaft beantragen, danach aber flexibel entscheiden, wie viele Beschäftigte tatsächlich kurzgearbeitet haben. Die Ergebnisse von Unternehmensbefragungen haben während der Covid19-Pandemie die Anzahl der Kurzarbeitenden deutlich überschätzt, die Gründe dafür untersuchen wir in diesem Papier. Dabei nutzen wir zwei Betriebsbefragungen, die beide mit administrativen Daten zur Kurzarbeit verknüpft werden können: Erstens, BeCovid, eine hochfrequente Befragung während der Pandemie und, zweitens, das Betriebspanel, eine jährliche, lang währende, Befragung. Betriebe mit Bezug von Kurzarbeitergeld nehmen mit höherer Wahrscheinlichkeit in BeCovid teil. Zudem berichten Betriebe, die Teil eines größeren Unternehmens sind, tendenziell eine zu hohe Anzahl Kurzarbeitender, weil sie andere Unternehmensteile in ihren Antworten mit einbeziehen. Ergebnisse aus dem Betriebspanel bestätigen die Überschätzung, wenn nach Kurzarbeit für den laufenden Monat gefragt wird. Allerdings sinkt diese Überschätzung deutlich, wenn Kurzarbeit rückblickend erhoben wird.

     
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    hdl: 10419/262192
    Schriftenreihe: IAB-discussion paper ; 2022, 12
    Schlagworte: establishment surveys; measurement error; non-response bias; short-time work; survey evidence
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen