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  1. How effective are hiring subsidies to reduce long-term unemployment among prime-aged jobseekers?
    evidence from Belgium
    Autor*in: Desiere, Sam; Cockx, Bart
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market, Maastricht, The Netherlands

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    Schriftenreihe: ROA research memorandum / Researchcentrum voor Onderwijs en Arbeidsmarkt ; ROA-RM-2021, 5 (September 2021)
    Schlagworte: hiring subsidies; long-term unemployment; prime-aged jobseekers; tripledifference; temporary help agencies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. How effective are hiring subsidies to reduce long-term unemployment among prime-aged jobseekers?
    evidence from Belgium
    Autor*in: Desiere, Sam; Cockx, Bart
    Erschienen: October 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its... mehr

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    Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a triple difference methodology the hiring subsidy is shown to increase the job finding rate by 13% without any evidence of spill-over effects. This effect is driven by a positive effect on individuals with at least a bachelor's degree. However, the hiring subsidy mainly created temporary short-lived employment: eligible jobseekers were not more likely to find employment that lasted at least twelve consecutive months than ineligible jobseekers.

     
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    hdl: 10419/250428
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14767
    Schlagworte: hiring subsidies; long-term unemployment; prime-aged jobseekers; triple difference; temporary help agencies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. How effective are hiring subsidies to reduce long-term unemployment among prime-aged jobseekers?
    evidence from Belgium
    Autor*in: Desiere, Sam; Cockx, Bart
    Erschienen: September 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its... mehr

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    Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a triple difference methodology the hiring subsidy is shown to increase the job finding rate by 13% without any evidence of spill-over effects. This effect is driven by a positive effect on individuals with at least a bachelor's degree. However, the hiring subsidy mainly created temporary short-lived employment: eligible jobseekers were not more likely to find employment that lasted at least twelve consecutive months than ineligible jobseekers.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245506
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9325 (2021)
    Schlagworte: hiring subsidies; long-term unemployment; prime-aged jobseekers; triple difference; temporary help agencies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. How effective are hiring subsidies to reduce long-term unemployment among primeaged jobseekers?
    evidence from Belgium
    Autor*in: Desiere, Sam; Cockx, Bart
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Institut de recherche économiques et sociales, UC Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve

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    Schriftenreihe: LIDAM discussion paper IRES ; 2021, 24
    Schlagworte: hiring subsidies; long-term unemployment; prime-aged jobseekers; triple difference; temporary help agencies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Social exclusion and optimal redistribution
    Autor*in: Aronsson, Thomas; Bastani, Spencer; Tayibov, Khayyam
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We integrate social exclusion, operationalized in terms of long-term unemployment, into the theory of optimal redistributive taxation. Our results show how an optimal mix of education policy, public employment, and support to the unemployed, in... mehr

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    We integrate social exclusion, operationalized in terms of long-term unemployment, into the theory of optimal redistributive taxation. Our results show how an optimal mix of education policy, public employment, and support to the unemployed, in conjunction with optimal income taxation, contributes to redistribution and reduced long-term unemployment. The second-best optimum most likely implies overprovision of education relative to a policy rule that balances the direct marginal benefit and marginal cost, whereas public employment and unemployment benefits are underprovided. Our calibration shows how the policy mix varies with the government's preferences for redistribution and the characteristics of those risking long-term unemployment.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248993
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9448 (2021)
    Schlagworte: long-term unemployment; education; optimal income taxation; public sector employment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Search capital and unemployment duration
    Autor*in: Lafuente, Cristina
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  European University Institute, Badia Fiesolana, Italy

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 1814/67750
    Schriftenreihe: EUI working papers ; MWP 2020,10
    Schlagworte: search; unemployment; long-term unemployment; temporary contracts
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (76 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Social exclusion and optimal redistribution
    Autor*in: Aronsson, Thomas; Bastani, Spencer; Tayibov, Khayyam
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden

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    Schriftenreihe: Umeå economic studies ; no. 1004
    Schlagworte: long-term unemployment; education; optimal income taxation; public sector employment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Can algorithms reliably predict long-term unemployment in times of crisis?
    evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic
    Autor*in: Kunaschk, Max; Lang, Julia
    Erschienen: 9 May 2022
    Verlag:  Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency, Nürnberg, Germany

    In this paper, we compare two popular statistical learning techniques, logistic regression and random forest, with respect to their ability to classify jobseekers by their likelihood to become long-term unemployed. We study the performance of the two... mehr

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    In this paper, we compare two popular statistical learning techniques, logistic regression and random forest, with respect to their ability to classify jobseekers by their likelihood to become long-term unemployed. We study the performance of the two methods before the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the impact of the pandemic and its associated containment measures on their prediction performance. Our results show that random forest consistently out-performs logistic regression in terms of prediction performance, both, before and after the beginning of the pandemic. During the lockdowns of the first wave, the number of unemployment entries and the fraction of individuals that become long-term unemployed strongly increases, and the prediction performance of both methods declines. Finally, while the composition of the (long-term) unemployed changed at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, we do not find systematic patterns across groups with different levels of labor market attachment or across different sectors of previous employment in terms of declines in prediction performance. In diesem Beitrag vergleichen wir zwei gängige Machine Learning Methoden, Logistische Regression und Random Forest, im Hinblick darauf, wie geeignet sie sind um Arbeitssuchende nach ihrer Wahrscheinlichkeit, langzeitarbeitslos zu werden, zu klassifizieren. Wir untersuchen die Prognosegüte der beiden Methoden vor der COVID-19-Pandemie sowie die Auswirkungen der Pandemie und der damit verbundenen Eindämmungsmaßnahmen auf ihre Vorhersagekraft. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Random Forest Modelle Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit besser vorhersagen können als logistische Regressionsmodelle, sowohl vor als auch nach Beginn der Pandemie. Während des Lockdowns in der ersten Welle der Pandemie nimmt sowohl der Anteil der Personen, die sich arbeitslos melden, als auch der Anteil der Personen, die langzeitarbeitslos werden, stark zu. Gleichzeitig nimmt die Prognosegüte beider Methoden ab. Obwohl sich die Zusammensetzung der (Langzeit-)Arbeitslosen zu Beginn der COVID-19-Pandemie geändert hat, finden sich keine systematischen Unterschiede in der Prognosegüte zwischen arbeitsmarktnäheren und -ferneren Personen oder zwischen Personen, die in unterschiedlichen Branchen tätig waren.

     
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    hdl: 10419/262188
    Schriftenreihe: IAB-discussion paper ; 2022, 8
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; long-term unemployment; machine learning; profiling
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Statistical profiling of unemployed jobseekers
    the increasing availability of big data allows for the profiling of unemployed jobseekers via statistical models
    Autor*in: Van Landeghem, Bert G. M.; Desiere, Sam; Struyven, Ludo
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), Bonn

    Statistical models can help public employment services to identify factors associated with long-term unemployment and to identify at-risk groups. Such profiling models will likely become more prominent as increasing availability of big data combined... mehr

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    Statistical models can help public employment services to identify factors associated with long-term unemployment and to identify at-risk groups. Such profiling models will likely become more prominent as increasing availability of big data combined with new machine learning techniques improve their predictive power. However, to achieve the best results, a continuous dialogue between data analysts, policymakers, and case workers is key. Indeed, when developing and implementing such tools, normative decisions are required. Profiling practices can misclassify many individuals, and they can reinforce but also prevent existing patterns of discrimination.

     
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    hdl: 10419/260717
    Schriftenreihe: IZA world of labor ; 2021, 483
    Schlagworte: statistical profiling; long-term unemployment; benefit exhaustion; labor market discrimination
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 9 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Long-term unemployment, hysteresis and missing deflation
    reconsidering the New-Keynesian approach by means of an 'old' Phillips curve
    Autor*in: Romaniello, Davide
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Università di Siena, [Siena]

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    Schriftenreihe: Quaderni del Dipartimento di economia politica e statistica ; n. 880 (maggio 2022)
    Schlagworte: Hysteresis; long-term unemployment; NAIRU; conflict-claim inflation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Do the long-term unemployed benefit from automated occupational advice during online job search?
    Autor*in: Belot, Michèle; Kircher, Philipp; Muller, Paul
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    In a randomized field experiment, we provide personalized suggestions about suitable alternative occupations to long-term unemployed job seekers in the UK. The suggestions are automatically generated, integrated in an online job search platform, and... mehr

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    In a randomized field experiment, we provide personalized suggestions about suitable alternative occupations to long-term unemployed job seekers in the UK. The suggestions are automatically generated, integrated in an online job search platform, and fed into actual search queries. Effects on the primary pre-registered outcomes of "finding a stable job" and "reaching a cumulative earnings threshold" are positive, are significant among those who searched at least once, and are more pronounced for those who are longer unemployed. Treated individuals include more occupations in their search and find more jobs in recommended occupations.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263668
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15452
    Schlagworte: online advice; job search; long-term unemployment; occupational mobility; field experiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The nature of long-term unemployment: predictability, heterogeneity and selection
    Autor*in: Müller, Andreas; Spinnewijn, Johannes
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when... mehr

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    This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest gains come from adding job seekers' employment history prior to becoming unemployed. Applying our prediction algorithm over the unemployment spell, we show that dynamic selection into LTU explains at least half of the observed decline in job finding. While the within-individual declines are small on average, we find substantial heterogeneity in the individual-level declines and thus reject the commonly used proportional hazard assumption. Applying our prediction algorithm over the business cycle, we find that the cyclicality in average LTU risk is not driven by composition but rather by within-individual cyclicality and that individual rankings are relatively persistent across years. Finally, we evaluate the implications of our findings for the value of targeting unemployment policies and how these change over the unemployment spell and the business cycle.

     
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    hdl: 10419/272582
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15955
    Schlagworte: long-term unemployment; heterogeneity; selection; duration dependence; business cycle; targeting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Long-term unemployment, technical progress and capital mobility in an open growth-matching model
    Autor*in: Birk, Angela
    Erschienen: 2002
    Verlag:  Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA), Hamburg

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  14. Long-term unemployment and subsidizing vacancies in a growth-matching model
    Autor*in: Birk, Angela
    Erschienen: 2001
    Verlag:  Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA), Hamburg

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  15. Qualification-mismatch and long-term unemployment in a growth-matching model
    Autor*in: Birk, Angela
    Erschienen: 2001
    Verlag:  Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA), Hamburg

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  16. Long-term unemployment, technical progress and capital mobility in an open growth-matching model
    Autor*in: Birk, Angela
    Erschienen: 2002
    Verlag:  HWWA, Öffentlichkeitsarbeit, Hamburg

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  17. Long-term unemployment and subsidizing vacancies in a growth-matching model
    Autor*in: Birk, Angela
    Erschienen: 2001
    Verlag:  HWWA, Öffentlichkeitsarbeit, Hamburg

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  18. Revisiting the effects of long-term unemployment on inflation
    the role of non-linearities
    Autor*in: Esady, Vania; Speigner, Bradley; Wanengkirtyo, Boromeus
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 1018 (March 2023)
    Schlagworte: Phillips curve; non-linearity; long-term unemployment; cross-sectionalidentification
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. The economic consequences of despair
    Autor*in: Pecchenino, Rowena A.
    Erschienen: September 2014
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Co. Kildare

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, NUI Maynooth ; 254
    Schlagworte: Despair; existential state; suicide; long-term unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten)
  20. Long-term unemployment and convexity in the Phillips curve
    Autor*in: Speigner, Bradley
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Bank of England ; 519
    Schlagworte: Phillips curve; convexity; natural rate of unemployment; Kalman filter; long-term unemployment; hysteresis
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (22 S.), graph. Darst.
  21. Contracting out mandatory counselling and training for long-term unemployed
    private for-profit or non-profit, or keep it public?
    Autor*in: Cockx, Bart; Baert, S.
    Erschienen: [2015]
    Verlag:  Institut de recherches économiques et sociales de l'Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgique

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    hdl: 2078.1/168433
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Institut de recherches économiques et sociales de l'Université catholique de Louvain ; 2015, 22
    Schlagworte: Contracting out of employment services; non-profit versus profit; private provision of public services; timing-of-events; long-term unemployment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen