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  1. Financial repression and transmission of macroeconomic shocks in a DSGE model with financial frictions
    Autor*in: Elkina, Mariia A.
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Research University, Higher School of Economic, [Moscow]

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 246/EC/2021
    Schlagworte: financial repression; business cycle; government debt; general equilibrium; financialfrictions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. A theory of debt accumulation and deficit cycles
    Autor*in: Mele, Antonio
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Swiss Finance Institute, Geneva

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    Schriftenreihe: Research paper series / Swiss Finance Institute ; no 21, 38
    Schlagworte: government debt; default; fiscal tipping points; austerity; deficit cycles; volatility paradox
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Managing growth in a volatile world
    Erschienen: June 2012
    Verlag:  The World Bank, Washington, DC

    The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial... mehr

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    The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial production, trade and capital goods sales all returned to positive territory, following the slow growth of the fourth quarter of 2011. Although debt levels in developing countries are lower, several countries (notably Jordan, India, and Pakistan) must reduce their structural fiscal balances to reduce debt to 40 percent of Gross domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 (or prevent debt-to-GDP ratios from rising further). As a result, sharp swings in investor sentiment and financial conditions will continue to complicate the conduct of macroeconomic policy in developing countries. In these conditions, policy in developing countries needs to be less reactive to short-term changes in external conditions, and more responsive to medium-term domestic considerations. A return to more neutral macroeconomic policies would also help developing countries reduce their vulnerabilities to external shocks, by rebuilding fiscal space, reducing short-term debt exposures and recreating the kinds of buffers that allowed them to react so resiliently to the 2008/09 crisis.

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/12106
    Schriftenreihe: Global economic prospects ; volume 5 (June 2012)
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftslage; Welt; Global Economic Prospects; accounting; arbitrage; assets; bailout; bank lending; Bank Loans; banking systems; basis points; binding constraint; bond; bond issuance; Bond Issues; bond spreads; Bond Yields; bonds; borrowing costs; budget constraint; buffers; business confidence; capacity constraints; capital constraints; capital goods; capital inflows; capital markets; Capital outflows; capital requirements; capitalization; CDS; central bank; Commodities; commodity; commodity markets; commodity price; commodity prices; commodity traders; consumer demand; consumer goods; consumer spending; Copyright Clearance; Copyright Clearance Center; country capital; country debt; country Equity; Credit Default; Credit Default Swap; credit squeeze; credit squeezes; crisis countries; Current account balance; current account balances; current account deficit; current account deficits; debt; Debt data; debt flows; debt levels; debt obligations; debt restructuring; debt stocks; debts; decline in investment; deposits; developing countries; developing country; Developing country Equity; developing economies; developing economy; domestic markets; downside scenario; durable; durables; Economic developments; Emerging Markets; Emerging-market; Equities; equity issuance; Equity Issues; Equity market; Equity markets; exchange rate; Exchange Rates; expenditure; expenditures; export growth; export value Interest Rates; exporter; exporters; exposures; external shocks; financial crises; financial crisis; financial institutions; financial integration; financial market; financial markets; financial sector; financial sector developments; financial sectors; financial systems; financing requirements; fiscal consolidation; fiscal deficits; fiscal policies; fiscal policy; food price; food prices; foreign banks; foreign currency; Global Economy; global finance; global financial markets; global financial systems; global output; global trade; Government account; government accounts; Government budget; government debt; government deficit; government deficits; government expenditure; government expenditures; government revenue; government revenues; government spending; Gross debt; growth rate; growth rates; High-Income Countries; high-income country; household savings; human capital; import; import demand; Income; income growth; incomes; Inflation; inflation rates; inflationary pressures; interest rates; International Bank; international business; International capital; International capital flows; international financial institutions; international financial markets; international reserves; International Settlements; International Trade; investing; investment activity; investment spending; lenders; level of risk; loan; local currency; low-income countries; macroeconomic policies; macroeconomic policy; Macroeconomic vulnerabilities; market conditions; market price; market prices; Market regulators; maturity; middle-income countries; Monetary Fund; monetary policies; monetary policy; natural disasters; Net capital; oil commodities; oil price; oil prices; Output; Output Gap; output gaps; political stability; political uncertainty; Portfolio; portfolio capital; post-crisis period; power parity; private banks; Private creditors; Private debt; private inflows; public spending; purchasing power; purchasing power parity; rate of growth; real interest; real interest rates; Regional trade; regulators; remittances; reserve; return; risk assessments; risk aversion; savings; savings rate; short-term debt; small countries; sovereign debt; stock markets; sustainable growth; technological change; trade deficit; trade finance; trading; transition countries; Treasury; Treasury Yields; value index; volatile capital; volatility; weights; withdrawal; world economy; World Trade
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 162 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Assuring growth over the medium term
    Erschienen: January 2013
    Verlag:  The World Bank, Washington, DC

    More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, high-income countries struggle to restructure their economies and regain fiscal sustainability. Developing countries, where growth is 1-2 percentage points below what it was during the... mehr

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    More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, high-income countries struggle to restructure their economies and regain fiscal sustainability. Developing countries, where growth is 1-2 percentage points below what it was during the pre-crisis period, have been affected by the weakness in high-income countries. To regain pre-crisis growth rates, they will need to focus on productivity-enhancing domestic policies rather than demand stimulus. Although the major risks to the global economy are similar to those of a year ago, the likelihood that they will materialize has diminished, as has the magnitude of estimated impacts should these events occur. Major downside risks include the loss of access to capital markets by vulnerable Euro Area countries, lack of agreement on U.S. fiscal policy and the debt ceiling, and commodity price shocks. In an environment of slow growth and continued volatility, a steady hand is required in developing countries to avoid pro-cyclical policy and to rebuild macroeconomic buffers so that authorities can react in the case of new external or domestic shocks.

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9780821398821
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/12124
    Schriftenreihe: Global economic prospects ; volume 6 (January 2013)
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftswachstum; Produktivitätsentwicklung; Entwicklungsländer; Global Economic Prospects; accounting; arbitrage; assets; bailout; bank lending; Bank Loans; banking systems; basis points; binding constraint; bond; bond issuance; Bond Issues; bond spreads; Bond Yields; bonds; borrowing costs; budget constraint; buffers; business confidence; capacity constraints; capital constraints; capital goods; capital inflows; capital markets; Capital outflows; capital requirements; capitalization; CDS; central bank; Commodities; commodity; commodity markets; commodity price; commodity prices; commodity traders; consumer demand; consumer goods; consumer spending; Copyright Clearance; Copyright Clearance Center; country capital; country debt; country Equity; Credit Default; Credit Default Swap; credit squeeze; credit squeezes; crisis countries; Current account balance; current account balances; current account deficit; current account deficits; debt; Debt data; debt flows; debt levels; debt obligations; debt restructuring; debt stocks; debts; decline in investment; deposits; developing countries; developing country; Developing country Equity; developing economies; developing economy; domestic markets; downside scenario; durable; durables; Economic developments; Emerging Markets; Emerging-market; Equities; equity issuance; Equity Issues; Equity market; Equity markets; exchange rate; Exchange Rates; expenditure; expenditures; export growth; export value Interest Rates; exporter; exporters; exposures; external shocks; financial crises; financial crisis; financial institutions; financial integration; financial market; financial markets; financial sector; financial sector developments; financial sectors; financial systems; financing requirements; fiscal consolidation; fiscal deficits; fiscal policies; fiscal policy; food price; food prices; foreign banks; foreign currency; Global Economy; global finance; global financial markets; global financial systems; global output; global trade; Government account; government accounts; Government budget; government debt; government deficit; government deficits; government expenditure; government expenditures; government revenue; government revenues; government spending; Gross debt; growth rate; growth rates; High-Income Countries; high-income country; household savings; human capital; import; import demand; Income; income growth; incomes; Inflation; inflation rates; inflationary pressures; interest rates; International Bank; international business; International capital; International capital flows; international financial institutions; international financial markets; international reserves; International Settlements; International Trade; investing; investment activity; investment spending; lenders; level of risk; loan; local currency; low-income countries; macroeconomic policies; macroeconomic policy; Macroeconomic vulnerabilities; market conditions; market price; market prices; Market regulators; maturity; middle-income countries; Monetary Fund; monetary policies; monetary policy; natural disasters; Net capital; oil commodities; oil price; oil prices; Output; Output Gap; output gaps; political stability; political uncertainty; Portfolio; portfolio capital; post-crisis period; power parity; private banks; Private creditors; Private debt; private inflows; public spending; purchasing power; purchasing power parity; rate of growth; real interest; real interest rates; Regional trade; regulators; remittances; reserve; return; risk assessments; risk aversion; savings; savings rate; short-term debt; small countries; sovereign debt; stock markets; sustainable growth; technological change; trade deficit; trade finance; trading; transition countries; Treasury; Treasury Yields; value index; volatile capital; volatility; weights; withdrawal; world economy; World Trade
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 178 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Default risk premia on government bonds in a quantitative macroeconomic model
    Autor*in: Jüßen, Falko; Linnemann, Ludger; Schabert, Andreas
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Universitätsbibliothek Dortmund, Dortmund

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    hdl: 2003/26541
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion Paper / SFB 823 ; 33/2009
    Schlagworte: Bundesanleihe; Konsol; Staatsanleihe; Zwangsanleihe; Risikoprämie; Insolvenz; Öffentliche Schulden; Finanzpolitik; Makroökonomie; Theorie
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Öffentliche Anleihe; (stw)Risikoprämie; (stw)Insolvenz; (stw)Öffentliche Schulden; (stw)Finanzpolitik; (stw)Makroökonomik; (stw)Theorie; asset pricing; fiscal policy; government debt; sovereign default; Graue Literatur
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  6. Treasury supply shocks and the term structure of interest rates in the UK
    Autor*in: Lengyel, Andras
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest

    How does the additional debt issued by the government affect the term structure of interest rates? In this paper we identify Treasury supply shocks using intraday high-frequency data, by exploiting the institutional setup of the UK government bond... mehr

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    How does the additional debt issued by the government affect the term structure of interest rates? In this paper we identify Treasury supply shocks using intraday high-frequency data, by exploiting the institutional setup of the UK government bond primary market. We find that supply shocks have positive effects on nominal and real interest rates. Most of the reaction is due to real term and inflation risk premia rather than the expectation component of yields. We argue both theoretically and empirically that supply shocks transmit via the repricing of duration and inflation risks in the economy. We also document that these effects are stronger under adverse economic and financial conditions.

     
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    hdl: 10419/269181
    Schriftenreihe: MNB working papers ; 2022, 6
    Schlagworte: Term structure; government debt; bond risk premia; high-frequency identification
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. FTPL and the maturity structure of government debt in the New-Keynesian model
    Autor*in: Liemen, Max Ole; Posch, Olaf
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    In this paper, we revisit the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) within the New Keynesian (NK) model. We show in which cases the average maturity of government debt matters for the transmission of policy shocks. The central task of this paper is... mehr

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    In this paper, we revisit the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) within the New Keynesian (NK) model. We show in which cases the average maturity of government debt matters for the transmission of policy shocks. The central task of this paper is to shed light on the theoretical predictions of the maturity structure on macro dynamics with an emphasis on model-implied expectations. In particular, we address the transmission channels of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on the interest rate and inflation dynamics. Our results illustrate the role of the maturity of existing debt in the wake of skyrocketing debt-to-GDP ratios and increasing government expenditures. We highlight our results by quantifying the effects of the large-scale US fiscal packages (CARES) and predict a surge in inflation if the deficits are not sufficiently backed by future surpluses.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263770
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9840 (2022)
    Schlagworte: NK models; FTPL; government debt; maturity structure; CARES
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Economic consequences of high public debt
    evidence from three large scale DSGE models
    Autor*in: Burriel, Pablo; Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; Jacquinot, Pascal; Schön, Matthias; Stähler, Nikolai
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2029
    Schlagworte: government debt; interest rates; economic growth; fiscal sustainability
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. International transmission of interest rates
    the role of international reserves and sovereign debt
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Huart, Florence; Jalles, João Tovar; Stanek, Piotr
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We analyse the international transmission of interest rates by focusing on the role of the accumulation of international reserves and on the financing of sovereign debt. An increase in foreign exchange reserves is expected to moderate the influence... mehr

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    We analyse the international transmission of interest rates by focusing on the role of the accumulation of international reserves and on the financing of sovereign debt. An increase in foreign exchange reserves is expected to moderate the influence of U.S. interest rates. However, a high level of government debt raises the sovereign risk premium. Moreover, an increase in the stock of government debt denominated in foreign currency may increase the expected rate of depreciation of the domestic currency. We explain the theoretical mechanisms in a model, which describes the money market equilibrium in an economy with capital account openness. Then, we test the predictions of the model for a panel of advanced and developing economies over the period 1970-2018. Our main findings are: i) significant spillovers from the U.S. interest rates to other countries, mostly for Advanced Economies; ii) a dampening effect of the share of external liabilities in the domestic currency, clearly a determinant of risk premium; iii) a negative effect of international reserves on interest rates, as expected; iv) higher reserves decrease risk premia, for long-term interest rates; v) the significance of spillovers fades once the sovereign debt reaches 100% of GDP in developed countries.

     
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    hdl: 10419/233799
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 54 (2021, January)
    Schlagworte: interest rates; international reserves; government debt; spillover effects; monetary policy; fiscal policy; panel analysis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  10. Flexible inflation targeting with active fiscal policy
    Autor*in: Harrison, Richard
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 928
    Schlagworte: Optimal monetary policy; fiscal policy; effective lower bound; government debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Debt as safe asset
    Autor*in: Brunnermeier, Markus Konrad; Merkel, Sebastian; Sannikov, Yuliy
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The price of a safe asset reflects not only the expected discounted future cash flows but also future service flows, since retrading allows partial insurance of idiosyncratic risk in an incomplete markets setting. This lowers the ... mehr

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    The price of a safe asset reflects not only the expected discounted future cash flows but also future service flows, since retrading allows partial insurance of idiosyncratic risk in an incomplete markets setting. This lowers the issuers’ interest burden and allows the government to run a permanent (primary) deficit without ever paying back its debt. As idiosyncratic risk rises during recessions, so does the value of the service flows bestowing the safe asset with a negative ß. This resolves government debt valuation puzzles. Nevertheless, the government faces a “Debt Laffer Curve”. The paper also has important implications for fiscal debt sustainability.

     
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    hdl: 10419/252017
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9500 (2021)
    Schlagworte: safe asset; government debt; Debt Laffer Curve; Ponzi Scheme; fiscal capacity; I Theory of Money; r vs. g
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The risk of adopting the bond yield as the anchor for the EU fiscal framework
    Autor*in: Andersson, Fredrik N. G.; Jonung, Lars
    Erschienen: January 2022
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Lund

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    hdl: 10419/260340
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics, Lund University ; 2022, 1
    Schlagworte: Fiscal framework; European Union; ECB; Stability and Growth Pact; secular stagnation; modern monetary theory; government debt; fiscal policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Who is afraid of eurobonds?
    Autor*in: Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo; Rogantini Picco, Anna
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, [Chicago, Illinois]

    The growing asymmetry in the size of fiscal imbalances poses a serious challenge to the macroeconomic stability of the Euro Area (EA). We show that following a contractionary shock, the current monetary and fiscal framework weakens economic growth... mehr

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    The growing asymmetry in the size of fiscal imbalances poses a serious challenge to the macroeconomic stability of the Euro Area (EA). We show that following a contractionary shock, the current monetary and fiscal framework weakens economic growth even in lowdebt countries because of the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint. At the same time, the current framework also exposes the EA to the risk of fiscal stagflation if one country were to refuse to implement the necessary fiscal consolidations. We study a new framework that allows EA policymakers to separate the need for short-run macroeconomic stabilization from the issue of long-run fiscal sustainability. Following a contractionary shock, the central bank tolerates the increase in inflation needed to stabilize the amount of Eurobonds issued in response to a large EA recession. National governments remain responsible to back their country-level debt by fiscal adjustments. The policy acts as an automatic stabilizer that benefits both high-debt and low-debt countries, generating a moderate increase in inflation that mitigates the recession and allows the central bank to move away from the ZLB. At the same time, the proposed policy lowers the risk of fiscal stagflation because it endows EA countries with effective stabilization policies.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267998
    Schriftenreihe: [Working paper] / Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago ; WP 2022, 43 (October 3, 2022)
    Schlagworte: Monetary and fiscal policy coordination; monetary union; Eurobonds; zero lower bound; government debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Recovery of 1933
    Autor*in: Jacobson, Margaret M.; Leeper, Eric M.; Preston, Bruce
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2023, 032
    Schlagworte: Great Depression; monetary-fiscal interactions; monetary policy; fiscal policy; government debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 85 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. The demand for government debt
    Autor*in: Eren, Egemen; Schrimpf, Andreas; Xia, Fan Dora
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 1105
    Schlagworte: government debt; demand; yield elasticity; quantitative easing; quantitative tightening
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Who is afraid of eurobonds?
    Autor*in: Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo; Rogantini Picco, Anna
    Erschienen: 08 July 2023
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18279
    Schlagworte: Monetary and fiscal policy coordination; monetary union; Eurobonds; zerolower bound; government debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Investing like conglomerates: is diversification a blessing or curse for China's local governments?
    Autor*in: Fan, Jianchao; Liu, Jing; Zhou, Yinggang
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 920 (January 2021)
    Schlagworte: local government financing vehicle; diversified investment; government debt; conglomerate
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt?
    turning a wave into a tsunami
    Autor*in: Kose, M. Ayhan; Nagle, Peter; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Sugawara, Naotaka
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

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    Schriftenreihe: CAMA working paper ; 2021, 99 (December 2021)
    Schlagworte: Fiscal balance; government debt; private debt; global recessions; resolution
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Seemingly irresponsible but welfare improving fiscal policy at the lower bound
    Autor*in: Billi, Roberto M.; Walsh, Carl E.
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    In this paper, we evaluate the consequences of super-active fiscal policy rules - that is, rules that call for tax cuts and/or spending increases as the government's debt level rises - in a standard New Keynesian model subject to an... mehr

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    In this paper, we evaluate the consequences of super-active fiscal policy rules - that is, rules that call for tax cuts and/or spending increases as the government's debt level rises - in a standard New Keynesian model subject to an occasionally-binding zero lower bound on the monetary policy interest rate. We show that such seemingly irresponsible, debt-financed fiscal stimulus at the ZLB, unbacked by any promise of future tax increases or spending cuts, not only improves economic stability by acting as an automatic stabilizer, but also, somewhat paradoxically, reduces government debt accumulation. When evaluated using a model-consistent measure of welfare, fiscal rules calibrated to the U.S. response during both the Great Recession and COVID recession, combined with a weak monetary policy response to inflation, outperform a monetary policy that responds strongly to inflation and reduce the frequency of episodes at the ZLB.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 410
    Schlagworte: automatic stabilizers; fiscal and monetary interactions; government debt
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  20. Inflation targeting or fiscal activism?
    Autor*in: Billi, Roberto M.
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    I study the welfare performance of a policy regime of fiscal activism in which fiscal policy acts as an automatic stabilizer and controls inflation, while monetary policy pegs the nominal interest rate. When evaluated through the lens of a standard... mehr

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    I study the welfare performance of a policy regime of fiscal activism in which fiscal policy acts as an automatic stabilizer and controls inflation, while monetary policy pegs the nominal interest rate. When evaluated through the lens of a standard New Keynesian model, accounting for price and wage rigidities and for a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate, fiscal activism can substantially outperform inflation targeting in the face of both demand shocks and technology shocks. Fiscal activism can also eliminate the occurrence of ZLB episodes.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 412
    Schlagworte: automatic stabilizers; fiscal and monetary interactions; government debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Debt-financed fiscal stimulus in South Africa
    Autor*in: Hollander, Hylton
    Erschienen: October 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    Debt-financed fiscal stimulus programmes directly stimulate aggregate demand through government expenditure or tax cuts, but their effectiveness is highly dependent on direct crowding out of private sector expenditure, spillover effects to the... mehr

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    Debt-financed fiscal stimulus programmes directly stimulate aggregate demand through government expenditure or tax cuts, but their effectiveness is highly dependent on direct crowding out of private sector expenditure, spillover effects to the private sector through a higher risk premium on interest rates, and the interaction between fiscal policy and monetary policy. Using an open-economy fiscal dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we identify the effect of six different fiscal policy instruments (consumption spending, investment spending, transfers, consumption taxes, capital taxes, and labour taxes) on short-term and long-term (nominal and real) interest rates. These disaggregated expenditure and revenue shocks raise long-term real yields between 18 and 29 basis points, but there are non-negligible differences in the dynamic responses to each fiscal instrument. Our main findings suggest that, in the context of fiscal sustainability, an investment-driven debt-financed fiscal stimulus programme would reduce the government debtto-GDP ratio, especially in periods of economic slack when monetary policy would typically be more accommodative. In fact, since the global financial crisis, monetary policy has reduced the burden of fiscal adjustment in response to rising debt and a rising risk premium. But further shocks to the risk premium could offset any gains from the current stance of monetary policy (for example, a credit rating shock raises the long-term government bond rate 155 basis points). We conclude that if fiscal policy remains unsustainable a negative feedback loop between increasing debt-servicing costs (through a higher risk premium) and rapid debt accumulation may push the country into a sovereign debt crisis and economic distress.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292670924
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248366
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2021, 152
    Schlagworte: government debt; interest rate; fiscal stimulus; fiscal sustainability
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Contingency public funds for emergencies
    the lessons from the international experience
    Autor*in: Brunet, Júlia; Cuadro-Sáez, Lucía; Pérez, Javier J.
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos ocasionales / Banco de España ; no. 2032
    Schlagworte: rainy-day funds; economic crises; natural catastrophes; biological catastrophes; government debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland – eine Szenario-Analyse
    Autor*in: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan
    Erschienen: [2021]; © 2021
    Verlag:  Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel

    Die äußerst günstigen Finanzierungskonditionen hatten in den 2010er Jahren einen wesentlichen Anteil daran, dass die Bruttostaatsschuldenquote in Deutschland nach der Weltfinanzkrise merklich zurückgeführt wurde. Die Autoren stellen fest, dass es... mehr

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    Die äußerst günstigen Finanzierungskonditionen hatten in den 2010er Jahren einen wesentlichen Anteil daran, dass die Bruttostaatsschuldenquote in Deutschland nach der Weltfinanzkrise merklich zurückgeführt wurde. Die Autoren stellen fest, dass es jedoch keineswegs klar ist, wie lange die extreme Niedrigzinsphase andauert, was Fragen der Resilienz der Staatsfinanzen in der längeren Frist aufwirft. Die Folgen einer möglichen Zinswende für die öffentlichen Finanzen hängen maßgeblich von den Ursachen für die zurückliegende Niedrigzinsphase ab. Die in der Studie durchgeführte Szenarioanalyse konzentriert sich auf vier zyklische Einflussfaktoren auf das Zinsniveau: Geldpolitik- und Risikoprämienschock sowie Investitions- und Preisschock. Wird die Zinswende durch Faktoren verursacht, die auch eine höhere makroökonomische Dynamik induzieren, wirkt dies im öffentlichen Budget dem Anstieg der Zinslast entgegen. Die Zinswende stellt in solchen Fällen kein ernsthaftes Problem für die öffentlichen Haushalte dar. Wird die Zinswende durch Faktoren verursacht, die eine makroökonomische Abschwächung induzieren, ergibt sich ein deutlicher Anpassungsbedarf für die öffentlichen Haushalte. Dies wäre insbesondere dann der Fall, wenn die Geldpolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank derzeit „zu expansiv“ ausgerichtet ist. In einem solchen Szenario befände sich die deutsche Wirtschaft in einem monetären Boom, der bei einer Normalisierung der Zinsen wegfallen würde. Fluktuationen von Vermögenspreisen, die durch Zinsschwankungen hervorgerufen werden, dürften hingegen eine untergeordnete Rolle spielen, da das deutsche Steuer- und Transfersystem in dieser Hinsicht vergleichsweise wenig sensitiv ist. Ein wesentlicher Grund hierfür ist, dass sich Immobilienpreisschwankungen nur unwesentlich in Einnahmeveränderungen bei der Einkommensteuer übersetzen. The extremely low interest environment during the 2010s has significantly facilitated the reduction of the gross government debt-to-GDP ratio in Germany in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. The authors note that, it is unclear for how long the period of extremely low interest rates persists, bringing the question of longer-term resilience of public finances towards increasing refinancing cost to the fore. The effect of rising interest rates on public finances largely depends on the causes of low interest rates in the recent years. The study focuses on four cyclical factors on the rate of interest and investigates their impact by means of a scenario analysis: monetary policy and risk premia shocks and investment and price shocks. If higher interest rates are the result of stronger economic growth, then the positive budgetary effect of the latter counteract the increasing interest burden. In this case, higher interest rates do not question the resilience of public finances. By contrast, higher interest rates caused by factors that also lead to weaker economic growth imply significant readjustments of public finances, in particular if the ECB’s monetary stance turns out to be too loose. In this case, the German economy would currently be under the influence of a monetary boom, the correction of which (i.e. a normalization of interest rates) would trigger a recession. Fluctuations in asset prices caused by interest rate fluctuations are likely to play a minor role, as the German tax and transfer system is comparatively insensitive in this respect. One major reason for this is that property price fluctuations translate only to a small extent into changes in income tax revenues.

     
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    ISBN: 9783894563516
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    hdl: 10419/247785
    Schriftenreihe: Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik ; Nr. 36 (Juni 2021)
    Schlagworte: Öffentliche Finanzen; Staatsschulden; Zinsentwicklung; gesamtwirtschaftliche Szenarien; Public finance; government debt; interest rates; macroeconomic scenarios
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (104 Seiten), Diagramme
  24. Do fundamentals explain differences between euro area sovereign interest rates?
    Autor*in: Pamies-Sumner, Stéphanie; Carnot, Nicolas; Pătărău, Anda
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

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    ISBN: 9789276237709
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 141 (June 2021)
    Schlagworte: interest rates; sovereign bond spreads; government debt; sovereign risk; debt sustainability
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries
    Autor*in: Cronin, David; McQuinn, Kieran
    Erschienen: August 9, 2023
    Verlag:  ESRI, Economic & Social Research Institute, [Dublin]

    Against a backdrop of debt ratio targets being central to recent proposed changes to the EU fiscal rules, we examine errors in official forecasts of the General Government debt ratios and their determinants in 26 member states from 2012 to 2019 when... mehr

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    Against a backdrop of debt ratio targets being central to recent proposed changes to the EU fiscal rules, we examine errors in official forecasts of the General Government debt ratios and their determinants in 26 member states from 2012 to 2019 when the "six pack" rules applied. We find debt ratio outturns exceeding projected values with forecast errors increasing over a four-year horizon. Larger errors arise where the initial debt ratio exceeds the Maastricht Treaty threshold of 60 per cent. In modelling the forecast errors of the debt ratio, we find that most of the variation is explained by forecast errors in the output growth rate and in the structural budget balance, as well as previous errors in projecting the debt ratio. During the sample period, member states who had not met their medium-term objective of a balanced structural budget were expected to adhere to a net expenditure rule. For countries subject to this requirement, we find undue optimism arising in forecasting the deficit ratio, a determinant of the debt ratio.

     
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    hdl: 10419/296728
    Schriftenreihe: ESRI working paper ; no. 756 (August 2023)
    Schlagworte: EU fiscal rules; government debt; forecast errors
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