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  1. Housing cycles and exchange rates
    Autor*in: Ma, Sai; Zhang, Shaojun
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  The Ohio State University, Fisher College of Business, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics, [Columbus, Ohio]

    This paper documents that the housing cycle, measured by the residential investment share, is a strong in-sample and out-of-sample predictor for the dollar up to twelve quarters. Housing construction is negatively associated with risk premia in... mehr

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    This paper documents that the housing cycle, measured by the residential investment share, is a strong in-sample and out-of-sample predictor for the dollar up to twelve quarters. Housing construction is negatively associated with risk premia in equity and bonds, but positively with foreign currency premia. We study a model with external habit preferences over tradable nonhousing consumption only, which implies counter-cyclical SDF volatility and procyclical demand for nontradable housing consumption. The predictability for excess returns in foreign currencies and other assets arises endogenously. The currency predictability is robust to a host of additional checks and holds for other G10 currencies

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers series / Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics ; WP 2019, 14
    Fisher College of Business Working Paper ; No. 2019-03-014
    Fisher College of Business working paper series ; WP 2019-03, 014
    Weitere Schlagworte: Array
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 83 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Macroeconomic policies and the Iranian economy in the era of sanctions
    Autor*in: Kandil, Magda; Mirzaie, Ida A.
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Economic Research Forum (ERF), Dokki, Giza, Egypt

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Economic Research Forum ; no. 1333 (August 2019)
    Schlagworte: Inflation; output growth; exchange rate; sanctions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Liquidity traps in a world economy
    Autor*in: Kollmann, Robert
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  ECARES, Brussels, Belgium

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/316780
    Schriftenreihe: ECARES working paper ; 2021, 02
    Schlagworte: Zero lower bound; expectations-driven and fundamentals-driven liquidity traps; domestic and international shock transmission; terms of trade; exchange rate; net exports
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten)
  4. The Chinese state's perception of international monetary order
    Autor*in: Liu, Weihao
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin

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    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Universitätsbibliothek Clausthal
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    Fachhochschule Erfurt, Hochschulbibliothek
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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Universität Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Bibliothek der Hochschule Hannover
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    Bibliothek im Kurt-Schwitters-Forum
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Zentrale Hochschulbibliothek Lübeck
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    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Hochschule Magdeburg-Stendal, Hochschulbibliothek
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    Hochschule Osnabrück, Bibliothek Campus Westerberg
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    Hochschule Magdeburg-Stendal, Standort Stendal, Bibliothek
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    UB Weimar
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
    Format: Online
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    Schlagworte: international monetary order; international monetary system; neo-liberalism; exchange rate; capital account; discourse; power relations; Chinese state
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 287 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Dissertation, Freie Universität Berlin, 2020
  5. Pakistan and lessons from East Asia
    growth, equity, and governance
    Autor*in: Ikram, Khalid
    Erschienen: [2011]
    Verlag:  Lahore School of Economics, Lahore, Pakistan

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    Schriftenreihe: CREB policy paper ; no. 11, 01
    Schlagworte: Macroeconomic policy; determinants of development; economic planning; economic growth; export drivers; exchange rate
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 88 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Liquidity traps in a world economy
    Autor*in: Kollmann, Robert
    Erschienen: January 7, 2021
    Verlag:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: CAMA working paper ; 2021, 5 (January 2021)
    Schlagworte: Zero lower bound; expectations-driven and fundamentals-driven liquidity traps,domestic and international shock transmission; terms of trade; exchange rate; net exports
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten)
  7. The role of the euro in the Eastern partnership countries
    Autor*in: Neykov, Radostin; Robert, Caroline
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789276237679
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 138 (February 2021)
    Schlagworte: Eastern Partnership; euro; international currency; foreign exchange reserves; exchange rate; invoicing currency; external public debt; foreign deposits and loans
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Selective attention in exchange rate forecasting
    Autor*in: Kapounek, Svatopluk; Kučerová, Zuzana; Kočenda, Evžen
    Erschienen: July 2020
    Verlag:  Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

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    Schriftenreihe: KIER discussion paper series ; no. 1035
    Schlagworte: exchange rate; selective attention; news; dynamic model averaging
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Fiscal regimes and the exchange rate
    Autor*in: Alberola, Enrique; Cantú, Carlos; Cavallino, Paolo; Mirkov, Nikola
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: Current draft: June 7, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 950 (June 2021)
    Schlagworte: exchange rate; monetary policy; scal policy; scal dominance; sovereign default
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The macroeconomic impact of foreign exchange intervention
    some cross-country empirical findings
    Autor*in: Jin, Zhongxia; Wang, Haobin; Zhao, Yue
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Based on VAR analyses across 26 countries, we show that, although foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is effective in stabilizing the nominal exchange rate in the short run, its impacts on the real exchange rate are less significant: Limitations on... mehr

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Based on VAR analyses across 26 countries, we show that, although foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is effective in stabilizing the nominal exchange rate in the short run, its impacts on the real exchange rate are less significant: Limitations on nominal exchange rate flexibility may induce adjustments to the real exchange rate through domestic prices. We find that countries that intervene more heavily in response to external shocks experience greater general and asset price volatility, which is not conducive to countering the impact of external shocks. We show that China's macroeconomic responses to external shocks are broadly consistent with international experiences among intervening countries. The simple methodological framework adopted in this paper is meant to examine a broad set of macroeconomic variables and bears limitations; our findings serve to motivate more structural analysis on FXI's macroeconomic impacts going forward

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9781513571959
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 126
    Schlagworte: foreign exchange intervention; exchange rate; Chinese economy; inflation; Foreign Exchange; Inflation; Informal Economy; Price Level; Underground Econom
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Establishing a foreign exchange futures market in China
    Autor*in: Jin, Zhongxia; Zhao, Yue; Wang, Haobin
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    During China's transition toward a more flexible exchange rate, it is essential to further develop its foreign exchange (FX) derivatives markets to meet the growing hedging needs associated with greater exchange rate fluctuations. Although... mehr

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    During China's transition toward a more flexible exchange rate, it is essential to further develop its foreign exchange (FX) derivatives markets to meet the growing hedging needs associated with greater exchange rate fluctuations. Although over-the-counter (OTC) FX derivatives markets already exist in China, it lacks a FX futures market that offers critical complementarities. With standardized products, greater transparency and centralized oversight, a FX futures market can better satisfy the hedging needs of small and medium-sized enterprises and enhance regulatory efficiency. To address concerns regarding whether FX futures market will amplify the volatility of spot exchange rates, this paper analyzes the impact of establishing FX futures markets on spot market volatility using data from major emerging market economies. The result shows that FX futures market is not empirically associated with an increase in spot market volatility; in some cases, it is even associated with a decrease in spot market volatility. This paper further suggests that for a well-functioning FX futures market to be established, it is essential for China to substitute the inefficient documentation requirement of underlying exposures with a new set of market-oriented measures for the purpose of prudent regulation

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513584843
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 268
    Schlagworte: FX futures market; exchange rate; market-based regulation; ADF Test Statistics; Financial Institutions and Services; Foreign Exchange; FX Futures Market; FX Futures Market, Exchange Rate and Market-Based Regulation; International Financial Markets
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Managing growth in a volatile world
    Erschienen: June 2012
    Verlag:  The World Bank, Washington, DC

    The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial... mehr

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    The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial production, trade and capital goods sales all returned to positive territory, following the slow growth of the fourth quarter of 2011. Although debt levels in developing countries are lower, several countries (notably Jordan, India, and Pakistan) must reduce their structural fiscal balances to reduce debt to 40 percent of Gross domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 (or prevent debt-to-GDP ratios from rising further). As a result, sharp swings in investor sentiment and financial conditions will continue to complicate the conduct of macroeconomic policy in developing countries. In these conditions, policy in developing countries needs to be less reactive to short-term changes in external conditions, and more responsive to medium-term domestic considerations. A return to more neutral macroeconomic policies would also help developing countries reduce their vulnerabilities to external shocks, by rebuilding fiscal space, reducing short-term debt exposures and recreating the kinds of buffers that allowed them to react so resiliently to the 2008/09 crisis.

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/12106
    Schriftenreihe: Global economic prospects ; volume 5 (June 2012)
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftslage; Welt; Global Economic Prospects; accounting; arbitrage; assets; bailout; bank lending; Bank Loans; banking systems; basis points; binding constraint; bond; bond issuance; Bond Issues; bond spreads; Bond Yields; bonds; borrowing costs; budget constraint; buffers; business confidence; capacity constraints; capital constraints; capital goods; capital inflows; capital markets; Capital outflows; capital requirements; capitalization; CDS; central bank; Commodities; commodity; commodity markets; commodity price; commodity prices; commodity traders; consumer demand; consumer goods; consumer spending; Copyright Clearance; Copyright Clearance Center; country capital; country debt; country Equity; Credit Default; Credit Default Swap; credit squeeze; credit squeezes; crisis countries; Current account balance; current account balances; current account deficit; current account deficits; debt; Debt data; debt flows; debt levels; debt obligations; debt restructuring; debt stocks; debts; decline in investment; deposits; developing countries; developing country; Developing country Equity; developing economies; developing economy; domestic markets; downside scenario; durable; durables; Economic developments; Emerging Markets; Emerging-market; Equities; equity issuance; Equity Issues; Equity market; Equity markets; exchange rate; Exchange Rates; expenditure; expenditures; export growth; export value Interest Rates; exporter; exporters; exposures; external shocks; financial crises; financial crisis; financial institutions; financial integration; financial market; financial markets; financial sector; financial sector developments; financial sectors; financial systems; financing requirements; fiscal consolidation; fiscal deficits; fiscal policies; fiscal policy; food price; food prices; foreign banks; foreign currency; Global Economy; global finance; global financial markets; global financial systems; global output; global trade; Government account; government accounts; Government budget; government debt; government deficit; government deficits; government expenditure; government expenditures; government revenue; government revenues; government spending; Gross debt; growth rate; growth rates; High-Income Countries; high-income country; household savings; human capital; import; import demand; Income; income growth; incomes; Inflation; inflation rates; inflationary pressures; interest rates; International Bank; international business; International capital; International capital flows; international financial institutions; international financial markets; international reserves; International Settlements; International Trade; investing; investment activity; investment spending; lenders; level of risk; loan; local currency; low-income countries; macroeconomic policies; macroeconomic policy; Macroeconomic vulnerabilities; market conditions; market price; market prices; Market regulators; maturity; middle-income countries; Monetary Fund; monetary policies; monetary policy; natural disasters; Net capital; oil commodities; oil price; oil prices; Output; Output Gap; output gaps; political stability; political uncertainty; Portfolio; portfolio capital; post-crisis period; power parity; private banks; Private creditors; Private debt; private inflows; public spending; purchasing power; purchasing power parity; rate of growth; real interest; real interest rates; Regional trade; regulators; remittances; reserve; return; risk assessments; risk aversion; savings; savings rate; short-term debt; small countries; sovereign debt; stock markets; sustainable growth; technological change; trade deficit; trade finance; trading; transition countries; Treasury; Treasury Yields; value index; volatile capital; volatility; weights; withdrawal; world economy; World Trade
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 162 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Uncertainties and vulnerabilities
    Erschienen: January 2012
    Verlag:  Washington, DC, DC

    The world economy has entered a dangerous period. Some of the financial turmoil in Europe has spread to developing and other high-income countries, which until earlier had been unaffected. This contagion has pushed up borrowing costs in many parts of... mehr

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    The world economy has entered a dangerous period. Some of the financial turmoil in Europe has spread to developing and other high-income countries, which until earlier had been unaffected. This contagion has pushed up borrowing costs in many parts of the world, and pushed down stock markets, while capital flows to developing countries have fallen sharply. Europe appears to have entered recession. At the same time, growth in several major developing countries (Brazil, India and, to a lesser extent, Russia, South Africa and Turkey) is significantly slower than it was earlier in the recovery, mainly reflecting policy tightening initiated in late 2010 and early 2011 in order to combat rising inflationary pressures. As a result, and despite a strengthening of activity in the United States and Japan, global growth and world trade have slowed sharply.

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/12105
    Schriftenreihe: Global economic prospects ; volume 4 (January 2012)
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftslage; Welt; access to bond markets; accounting; asset base; asset prices; bailout; balance of payments; bank activity; bank assets; bank balance sheets; Bank Debt; bank lending; bank loans; Banking Assets; banking crises; banking sector; banking sectors; banking system; banking systems; basis point; basis points; binding constraint; bond auctions; Bond Bank; bond funds; bond indexes; bond issuances; bond issuer; bond sales; bond spreads; Bond yields; bonds; borrowing costs; business cycle; capital adequacy; capital flow; Capital flows; capital markets; capital outflows; capital requirements; capital stock; CDS; Central Bank; central banks; collateral; commercial banks; Commodities; commodity; commodity exports; commodity price; Commodity Prices; consumer durables; contingency planning; Copyright Clearance; Copyright Clearance Center; corporate bond; corporate bond issuance; country debt; credit default; credit default swap; credit default swaps; credit histories; credit squeeze; credit squeezes; creditors; cross-border flows; currency depreciations; currency risk; Current Account Deficit; current account deficits; debt crisis; debt flows; debt holdings; debt issues; debt levels; debt ratios; Debt Repayment; debts; defaults; deficits; deposit; depositors; deposits; developing countries; Developing country; developing??country; domestic bank; domestic banking; domestic banks; domestic bond; domestic bond markets; Domestic bonds; downside scenario; downside scenarios; economic developments; emerging market; emerging market equities; Emerging Markets; emerging-market; enforcement mechanisms; equity flows; equity funds; equity issuance; equity markets; equity values; exchange rate; Exchange Rates; expenditure; expenditures; export growth; exporters; exposure; external debt; finances; financial crises; financial crisis; Financial flows; financial institutions; financial markets; Financial Stability; financial stress; financial support; financial systems; financing requirements; fiscal deficits; fixed investment; food prices; foreign banks; foreign capital; foreign currency; foreign holdings; foreign investment; foreign investor; Global Economic Prospects; Global Economy; global financial markets; global markets; global trade; government bonds; government deficit; government deficits; government financing; government revenues; growth rates; holding; holdings; host countries; Income; incomes; Inflation; inflation rate; inflationary pressures; insurance; interest rate; interest rates; International Bank; international bond; International capital; International capital flows; international financial market; International Trade; investment vehicles; liquidity; loan; loan exposures; loan portfolios; local currency; local government; local markets; local stock markets; long term debt; long-term debt; long-term yields; loss of confidence; mark-to-market; market competition; market conditions; market confidence; market equity; market participants; market price; market prices; market value; middle-income countries; monetary policy; Net debt; non-performing loan; nonperforming loans; oil price; oil prices; output; pension; pension system; policy response; political uncertainty; portfolio; power parity; private banks; private capital; private capital inflows; Private creditors; private debt; prudential regulation; purchasing power; remittance; remittances; reserves; return; risk aversion; safety net; secondary bond markets; short-term bonds; short-term debt; short-term finance; Short-term yields; social safety net; solvency; sovereign bond; sovereign debt; sovereign yields; stock markets; sustainable growth; swap; tax; trade finance; trade sectors; trading; tranche; transition countries; valuations; wholesale funding; world economy; world trade
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 165 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Navigating strong currents
    Erschienen: January 2011
    Verlag:  The World Bank, Washington, DC

    Economic activity in most developing countries has, or is close to having, recovered. Supported by resurgence in international and domestic financial flows and higher commodity prices, most of the spare capacity in developing countries that was... mehr

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    Economic activity in most developing countries has, or is close to having, recovered. Supported by resurgence in international and domestic financial flows and higher commodity prices, most of the spare capacity in developing countries that was created by the crisis has been reabsorbed, and developing countries have regained trend growth rates close to those observed in the pre-crisis period. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section discusses recent developments in global production, trade, and financial markets, and presents updates of the World Bank's forecast for the global economy and developing countries. The global economy is transitioning from the bounce-back phase of the recovery toward a period of slower but more sustainable growth. Growth in most developing countries is increasingly running into capacity constraints, while in high-income and developing Europe and Central Asia growth is hampered by the concentrated nature of slack and ongoing restructuring. In this environment, policy needs to be moving away from short-term demand stimulus toward measures that generate additional employment by enhancing the supply potential of economies. The global policy environment has become highly charged and uncertain, and presents multiple risks to prospects for developing countries. As emphasized at the recent G-20 meetings in Seoul (G-20 2010), both developing and high-income countries will need to take care to minimize the negative external consequences of their domestic policy actions. Concretely, this means that while countries must remain mindful of domestic conditions, when opportunities present themselves to pursue domestic policy objectives in a manner that support adjustment elsewhere in the global economy these should be taken up.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/12102
    Schriftenreihe: Global economic prospects ; volume 2 (January 2011)
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftslage; Welt; Global Economic Prospects; asset price; auction; Bank Bond; Bank Equity; bank lending; bank loan; banking assets; banking sector; banking sectors; banking system; basis points; Bond; bond flows; bond issuance; Bond Portfolio; bond yield; bonds; capacity constraints; capital control; capital controls; capital flows; capital formation; capital gains; capital inflow; Capital inflows; capital markets; capital outflows; capital shortages; CDS; Central Bank; commodities; commodity; commodity prices; consumer debt; consumer demand; consumer goods; contingent liabilities; Copyright Clearance; Copyright Clearance Center; corporate bonds; credit default; credit default swap; credit default swaps; credit rating; creditors; Current account balance; current account balances; current account deficit; current account deficits; current account surpluses; debt flows; debt relief; deposits; developing countries; Developing country; developing economies; dividends; dollar value; domestic credit; domestic economy; durable; durable goods; economic developments; economic performance; emerging markets; equipment; equities; equity flows; equity issues; equity market; equity markets; exchange rate; exchange rate movements; exchange rates; exporters; exposure; financial crisis; financial flows; financial inflows; financial institutions; financial integration; financial market; financial markets; financial sector; financial sector policies; Financial Stability; financial support; fiscal consolidation; fiscal consolidations; fiscal deficits; fiscal policy; Fixed investment; flows of capital; Food price; food prices; foreign banks; foreign capital; Foreign direct investment; foreign exchange; foreign exchange market; foreign holdings; foreign investors; fund managers; future growth; futures; global economy; global exports; global financial markets; global investors; global pension; global trade; government finances; government spending; growth rate; growth rates; hedge funds; holdings; host country; import costs; income; incomes; indebtedness; inflation; inflationary pressure; inflationary pressures; infrastructure investment; institutional development; Institutional investor; interest income; interest rate; interest rate differentials; interest rates; International Bank; international bond; International capital; International capital flows; international financial markets; International settlements; investment climate; investment flows; investment funds; investment projects; investment rates; investment spending; investment vehicles; labor market; liquidity; local currency; local economy; local market; long-term interest; loss of confidence; Low-income countries; macroeconomic management; macroeconomic policy; market developments; market expectations; market index; market makers; market participants; market price; market prices; market valuations; market volatility; maturity; middle-income countries; monetary policy; money market; money supply; monopoly; Net debt; oil price; oil prices; output; output gap; output gaps; pension; pension funds; pension systems; political stability; Portfolio; portfolio investment; portfolios; power parity; price volatility; private capital; private capital flows; Private creditors; private savings; public finances; purchasing power; rapid expansion; regulatory requirements; remittance; remittances; repayments; reserve; reserve requirements; reserves; savings; savings rates; securities; short-term assets; short-term debt; sovereign debt; sovereign debt markets; speculative bubble; supply shocks; tax; tax rate; tax rates; Technological change; trading; transaction costs; transition countries; transition economies; Treasuries; Unemployment rates; volatility; withdrawal; world economy; world trade; yield spreads
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  15. Assuring growth over the medium term
    Erschienen: January 2013
    Verlag:  The World Bank, Washington, DC

    More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, high-income countries struggle to restructure their economies and regain fiscal sustainability. Developing countries, where growth is 1-2 percentage points below what it was during the... mehr

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    More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, high-income countries struggle to restructure their economies and regain fiscal sustainability. Developing countries, where growth is 1-2 percentage points below what it was during the pre-crisis period, have been affected by the weakness in high-income countries. To regain pre-crisis growth rates, they will need to focus on productivity-enhancing domestic policies rather than demand stimulus. Although the major risks to the global economy are similar to those of a year ago, the likelihood that they will materialize has diminished, as has the magnitude of estimated impacts should these events occur. Major downside risks include the loss of access to capital markets by vulnerable Euro Area countries, lack of agreement on U.S. fiscal policy and the debt ceiling, and commodity price shocks. In an environment of slow growth and continued volatility, a steady hand is required in developing countries to avoid pro-cyclical policy and to rebuild macroeconomic buffers so that authorities can react in the case of new external or domestic shocks.

     
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    ISBN: 9780821398821
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/12124
    Schriftenreihe: Global economic prospects ; volume 6 (January 2013)
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftswachstum; Produktivitätsentwicklung; Entwicklungsländer; Global Economic Prospects; accounting; arbitrage; assets; bailout; bank lending; Bank Loans; banking systems; basis points; binding constraint; bond; bond issuance; Bond Issues; bond spreads; Bond Yields; bonds; borrowing costs; budget constraint; buffers; business confidence; capacity constraints; capital constraints; capital goods; capital inflows; capital markets; Capital outflows; capital requirements; capitalization; CDS; central bank; Commodities; commodity; commodity markets; commodity price; commodity prices; commodity traders; consumer demand; consumer goods; consumer spending; Copyright Clearance; Copyright Clearance Center; country capital; country debt; country Equity; Credit Default; Credit Default Swap; credit squeeze; credit squeezes; crisis countries; Current account balance; current account balances; current account deficit; current account deficits; debt; Debt data; debt flows; debt levels; debt obligations; debt restructuring; debt stocks; debts; decline in investment; deposits; developing countries; developing country; Developing country Equity; developing economies; developing economy; domestic markets; downside scenario; durable; durables; Economic developments; Emerging Markets; Emerging-market; Equities; equity issuance; Equity Issues; Equity market; Equity markets; exchange rate; Exchange Rates; expenditure; expenditures; export growth; export value Interest Rates; exporter; exporters; exposures; external shocks; financial crises; financial crisis; financial institutions; financial integration; financial market; financial markets; financial sector; financial sector developments; financial sectors; financial systems; financing requirements; fiscal consolidation; fiscal deficits; fiscal policies; fiscal policy; food price; food prices; foreign banks; foreign currency; Global Economy; global finance; global financial markets; global financial systems; global output; global trade; Government account; government accounts; Government budget; government debt; government deficit; government deficits; government expenditure; government expenditures; government revenue; government revenues; government spending; Gross debt; growth rate; growth rates; High-Income Countries; high-income country; household savings; human capital; import; import demand; Income; income growth; incomes; Inflation; inflation rates; inflationary pressures; interest rates; International Bank; international business; International capital; International capital flows; international financial institutions; international financial markets; international reserves; International Settlements; International Trade; investing; investment activity; investment spending; lenders; level of risk; loan; local currency; low-income countries; macroeconomic policies; macroeconomic policy; Macroeconomic vulnerabilities; market conditions; market price; market prices; Market regulators; maturity; middle-income countries; Monetary Fund; monetary policies; monetary policy; natural disasters; Net capital; oil commodities; oil price; oil prices; Output; Output Gap; output gaps; political stability; political uncertainty; Portfolio; portfolio capital; post-crisis period; power parity; private banks; Private creditors; Private debt; private inflows; public spending; purchasing power; purchasing power parity; rate of growth; real interest; real interest rates; Regional trade; regulators; remittances; reserve; return; risk assessments; risk aversion; savings; savings rate; short-term debt; small countries; sovereign debt; stock markets; sustainable growth; technological change; trade deficit; trade finance; trading; transition countries; Treasury; Treasury Yields; value index; volatile capital; volatility; weights; withdrawal; world economy; World Trade
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  16. Global monetary and financial spillovers
    evidence from a new measure of Bundesbank policy shocks
    Autor*in: Cloyne, James S.; Hürtgen, Patrick M.; Taylor, Alan M.
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

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  17. Fiscal dominance in Sub-Saharan Africa revisited
    Autor*in: Hooley, John; Nguyen, Lam; Saito, Mika; Towfighian, Shirin Nikaein
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper explores the causes and consequences of fiscal dominance over monetary policy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Fiscal dominance has always been a pressing problem as it can contribute to inflation and macroeconomic instability, and... mehr

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    This paper explores the causes and consequences of fiscal dominance over monetary policy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Fiscal dominance has always been a pressing problem as it can contribute to inflation and macroeconomic instability, and increasingly so as fiscal deficits and public debt are rising in many SSA countries. We find that legal limits and availability of alternative financing options play an important role in determining the extent to which government deficits tend to be financed by the central bank. We also find economically significant effects of central bank lending to government on the exchange rate and inflation

     
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    ISBN: 9781513567747
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 17
    Schlagworte: Inflation; monetary policy; central bank; fiscal policy; fiscal dominance; policy coordination; exchange rate; fiscal deficit; sovereign debt
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  18. Dominant currencies and external adjustment
    Autor*in: Adler, Gustavo; Casas, Camila; Cubeddu, Luis; Gopinath, Gita; Li, Nan; Meleshchuk, Sergii; Osorio Buitron, Carolina; Puy, Damien; Timmer, Yannick
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The extensive use of the US dollar when firms set prices for international trade (dubbed dominant currency pricing) and in their funding (dominant currency financing) has come to the forefront of policy debate, raising questions about how exchange... mehr

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    The extensive use of the US dollar when firms set prices for international trade (dubbed dominant currency pricing) and in their funding (dominant currency financing) has come to the forefront of policy debate, raising questions about how exchange rates work and the benefits of exchange rate flexibility. This Staff Discussion Note documents these features of international trade and finance and explores their implications for how exchange rates can help external rebalancing and buffer macroeconomic shocks

     
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    ISBN: 9781513512150
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF staff discussion note ; SDN/20, 05 (July 2020)
    Schlagworte: trade pricing; trade invoicing; exchange rate; external adjustment
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  19. Exchange rate volatility and cross-border travel
    theory and empirics
    Autor*in: Wisarut Suwanprasert
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  [Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research], [Bangkok]

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research ; no. 158 (August 2021)
    Schlagworte: international price differences; exchange rate; exchange rate volatility; cross-border shopping; implied volatility
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  20. The macroeconomic impact of foreign exchange intervention
    some cross-country empirical findings
    Autor*in: Jin, Zhongxia; Wang, Haobin; Zhao, Yue
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Based on VAR analyses across 26 countries, we show that, although foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is effective in stabilizing the nominal exchange rate in the short run, its impacts on the real exchange rate are less significant: Limitations on... mehr

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    Based on VAR analyses across 26 countries, we show that, although foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is effective in stabilizing the nominal exchange rate in the short run, its impacts on the real exchange rate are less significant: Limitations on nominal exchange rate flexibility may induce adjustments to the real exchange rate through domestic prices. We find that countries that intervene more heavily in response to external shocks experience greater general and asset price volatility, which is not conducive to countering the impact of external shocks. We show that China's macroeconomic responses to external shocks are broadly consistent with international experiences among intervening countries. The simple methodological framework adopted in this paper is meant to examine a broad set of macroeconomic variables and bears limitations; our findings serve to motivate more structural analysis on FXI's macroeconomic impacts going forward

     
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  21. Exchange rates and the speed of economic recovery
    the role of financial development
    Autor*in: Fisera, Boris
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Prague

    We study the influence of the exchange rate on the speed of economic recovery in a sample of 67 developed and developing economies over the years 1989-2019. First, using a cross-sectional sample of 341 economic recoveries, we study the effect of... mehr

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    We study the influence of the exchange rate on the speed of economic recovery in a sample of 67 developed and developing economies over the years 1989-2019. First, using a cross-sectional sample of 341 economic recoveries, we study the effect of nominal depreciation and real undervaluation on the length of economic recovery. Our findings indicate that both nominal depreciation and real undervaluation increase the speed of economic recovery. However, this finding only holds for smaller depreciations/ undervaluations. Second, we use an interacted panel VAR (IPVAR) model to investigate the effect of real undervaluation on the speed of economic recovery after external shock. While we once again find evidence that undervalued domestic currency increases the speed of economic recovery, its positive effect seems limited in size. Furthermore, we also explore the role of financial development in influencing the effectiveness of undervalued domestic currency in stimulating the economic recovery. We find that the higher level of financial development seems to limit the negative effect of an overvalued currency on the speed of economic recovery, but not to influence the effect of an undervalued currency on economic recovery.

     
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    hdl: 10419/272790
    Schriftenreihe: IES working paper ; 2022, 18
    Schlagworte: Economic recovery; exchange rate; currency depreciation; realundervaluation; financial development; interacted panel VAR (IPVAR)
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  22. International inflation and trade linkages in Brazil under inflation targeting
    Autor*in: Morlin, Guilherme Spinato
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  DISEI, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Firenze (Italia)

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2022, n. 16
    Schlagworte: inflation; monetary policy; global inflation; exchange rate
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  23. Risk capacity, portfolio choice and exchange rates
    Autor*in: Hofmann, Boris; Shim, Ilhyock; Shin, Hyun Song
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 1031
    Schlagworte: Bond spread; capital flow; credit risk; emerging market; exchange rate
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  24. What drives long-term interest rates?
    evidence from the entire Swiss franc history 1852-2020
    Autor*in: Hauzenberger, Niko; Kaufmann, Daniel; Stuart, Rebecca; Tille, Cédric
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Université de Neuchâtel, Institute de Recherches Économiques, [Neuchâtel]

    We study domestic and international drivers of long-term interest rates using newly compiled financial market data for Switzerland starting in 1852. We use a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to estimate long-term trends in nominal... mehr

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    We study domestic and international drivers of long-term interest rates using newly compiled financial market data for Switzerland starting in 1852. We use a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to estimate long-term trends in nominal interest rates, exchange rate growth, and inflation. We then decompose the Swiss long-term interest rate trend into various drivers using an interest rate accounting framework. The decline in long-term interest rates since 1970 is mainly driven by a decline in the level of inflation. Comparing Switzerland with the rest of the world, we show that while Swiss real interest rates were higher during the 19th century, the pattern reversed after World War 2 with Swiss nominal and real rates becoming lower than foreign ones. However, this Swiss "low interest rate island" has disappeared in recent years. We document a connection between inflation risk and the Swiss term spread, as well between relative inflation risk and the difference between Swiss and foreign real interest rates.

     
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    hdl: 10419/265181
    Schriftenreihe: IRENE working paper ; 22, 03
    Schlagworte: Natural rate of interest; exchange rate; inflation risk; term spread; uncovered interest parity; historical data
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  25. How do the financial markets respond to emerging economies' asset purchase program?
    evidence from the Covid-19 crisis
    Autor*in: Prabheesh, K. P.; Kumar, Sanjiv
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    This study examines the impacts of unconventional monetary policy on the exchange rate, stock market, and bond market during the COVID-19 economic crisis in an emerging economy. It focuses particularly on the asset purchase program conducted by the... mehr

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    This study examines the impacts of unconventional monetary policy on the exchange rate, stock market, and bond market during the COVID-19 economic crisis in an emerging economy. It focuses particularly on the asset purchase program conducted by the Central Bank of India. The Central Bank announced an asset purchase program four times during the pandemic. By applying the EGARCH methodology, this study finds that: (1) the asset purchase program effectively reduced the yield rate in the bond market and its volatility; (2) the first two announcements did not exert any impact on the financial market, but the third and fourth announcements helped to compress the yield and its volatility; (3) the program helped to restrain the exchange rate depreciation and volatility in the foreign exchange market; and (4) the impact of the announcements on stock returns, however, was weak.

     
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    hdl: 10419/264174
    Schriftenreihe: ADBI working paper series ; no. 1314 (May 2022)
    Schlagworte: unconventional monetary policy; bond market; exchange rate; stock market; EGARCH
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