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  1. A structural investigation of quantitative easing
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    Did the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing (QE) in the aftermath of the financial crisis have macroeconomic effects? To answer this question, we estimate a large-scale DSGE model over the sample from 1998 until 2020, including data of the Fed's... mehr

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    Did the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing (QE) in the aftermath of the financial crisis have macroeconomic effects? To answer this question, we estimate a large-scale DSGE model over the sample from 1998 until 2020, including data of the Fed's balance sheet. We allow for QE to affect the economy via multiple channels that arise from several financial frictions. Our nonlinear Bayesian likelihood approach fully accounts for the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. We find that QE increased output by about 1.2 percent, reflecting a net increase in investment of nearly 9 percent accompanied by a 0.7 percent drop in aggregate consumption. Both government bond and capital asset purchases effectively improved financing conditions. Especially capital asset purchases significantly facilitated new investment and increased the production capacity. Against the backdrop of a fall in consumption, supply side effects dominated, leading to a disinflationary effect of about 0.25 percent annually.

     

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    ISBN: 9783957298096
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/229654
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2021, 01
    Schlagworte: Quantitative Easing; Liquidity Facilities; Zero Lower Bound; Nonlinear Bayesian Estimation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 107 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The role of nonlinearity in indeterminate models
    an application to expectations-driven liquidity traps
    Erschienen: 28 November, 2020
    Verlag:  Institute for Economic Studies, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan

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    Schriftenreihe: KEIO-IES discussion paper series ; DP2020, 023 (28 November, 2020)
    Schlagworte: Indeterminacy; Nonlinearity; Sunspot; Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps; Zero Lower Bound
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Investigating a measure of conventional and unconventional stimulus for the euro area
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

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    Schriftenreihe: CAMA working paper ; 2021, 27 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: Monetary Policy; Zero Lower Bound; Dynamic Term Structure Model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Monetary policy with a state-dependent inflation target in a behavioral two-country monetary union model
    Erschienen: August 30, 2020
    Verlag:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

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    Schriftenreihe: CAMA working paper ; 2020, 89 (October 2020)
    Schlagworte: Monetary Policy; Monetary Unions; Zero Lower Bound; Inflation Targets; Behavioral Macroeconomics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Endogenous growth, downward wage rigidities and optimal inflation
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Standard New Keynesian (NK) models feature an optimal inflation target well below two percent, limited welfare losses from business cycle fluctuations and long-term monetary neutrality. We develop a NK framework with labour market frictions,... mehr

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    Standard New Keynesian (NK) models feature an optimal inflation target well below two percent, limited welfare losses from business cycle fluctuations and long-term monetary neutrality. We develop a NK framework with labour market frictions, endogenous productivity and downward wage rigidity (DWR) which challenges these results. The model features a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve between inflation and unemployment and a trade-off between price distortions and output hysteresis that change the welfare-maximizing inflation level. For a plausible set of parameters, the optimal inflation target is in excess of two percent, a target value commonly used across central banks. Deviations from the optimal target carry welfare costs multiple times higher than in traditional NK models. The main reason is that endogenous growth and DWR generate asymmetric and hysteresis effects on unemployment and output. Price level targeting or a Taylor-rule responding to the unemployment rate can handle better the asymmetric and hysteresis effects in our model and deliver significant welfare gains. Our results are robust to the inclusion of the effective lower bound on the monetary policy interest rate

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9781513583983
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 208
    Schlagworte: Endogenous Growth; Monetary Policy; Optimal Inflation Target; Downward Wage Rigidity; Monetary Policy Invariance Hypothesis; Zero Lower Bound; Aggregate Human Capital; Employment; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Unemployment; Wages
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Banks and financial markets in microfounded models of money
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Tilburg University, Tilburg

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
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    ISBN: 9789056686536
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: [Dissertation series] / [Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University] ; [nr. 652 (2021)]
    Schlagworte: Zero Lower Bound; Normal Interesr Rate; Financial Markets; Credit; Private Money; Payment Instruments; Money Creation; Optimal Monetary Policy; Savings; Assets; Recession; Zero Lower Bound; Economics; Deposits; Household
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
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    Dissertation, Tilburg University, 2021

  7. The hockey stick Phillips curve and the zero lower bound
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    The recently observed disconnect between inflation and economic activity can be explained by the interplay between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and the costs of external financing. In normal times, credit spreads and the nominal interest rate balance... mehr

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    The recently observed disconnect between inflation and economic activity can be explained by the interplay between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and the costs of external financing. In normal times, credit spreads and the nominal interest rate balance out; factor costs dominate firms' marginal costs. When nominal rates are constrained, larger spreads can more than offset the effect of lower factor costs and induce only moderate inflation responses. The Phillips curve is hence flat at the ZLB, but features a positive slope in normal times and thus a hockey stick shape. Via this mechanism, forward guidance may induce deflationary effects.

     

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    hdl: 10419/231378
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 153 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Phillips Curve; Financial Frictions; Zero Lower Bound; Disinflation; Forward Guidance
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. From deviations to shortfalls: the effects of the FOMC's new employment objective
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Research Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, Mo.

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    Schriftenreihe: KcFED research working papers ; RWP 21, 04 (July 2021)
    Schlagworte: Monetary Policy; Equilibrium Unemployment; Nominal Rigidities; Zero Lower Bound
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. From deviations to shortfalls: the effects of the FOMC's new employment objective
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2021, 18 (July 2021)
    Schlagworte: Monetary Policy; Equilibrium Unemployment; Nominal Rigidities; Zero Lower Bound
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. A survey-based shadow rate and unconventional monetary policy effects
    Erschienen: June 2018
    Verlag:  Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, Tokyo, Japan

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 2018, E-5
    Schlagworte: Monetary Policy; Effective Lower Bound; Zero Lower Bound; ShadowRate; Survey Forecasts
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Speed limit policy and liquidity traps
    Erschienen: June 2018
    Verlag:  Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, Tokyo, Japan

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 2018, E-6
    Schlagworte: Liquidity Traps; Markov-Perfect Equilibrium; Speed Limit Policy; Zero Lower Bound
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten)
  12. Impulse response analysis at the zero lower bound
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  [Universität Bern, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, Department of Economics], Bern, Switzerland

    We study whether the response of the economy to structural shocks changes at the zero lower bound. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that VARs have a limited ability to detect changes in impulse response functions at the ZLB compared to the standard... mehr

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    We study whether the response of the economy to structural shocks changes at the zero lower bound. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that VARs have a limited ability to detect changes in impulse response functions at the ZLB compared to the standard environment with positive interest rates. This issue is confounded given the short sample lengths that characterize ZLB episodes. This is especially the case for timevarying parameter VARs, whose estimates are two-sided, and therefore tend to smooth changes across regimes. In contrast, fixed-coefficient VARs estimated by sub-sample exhibit greater power. Pooled estimates from panel VARs for six countries based on (long-run and) sign restrictions detect in several instances changes in the IRFs. This evidence is, however, weaker than it appears. Based on (long-run and) sign restrictions we find that prior and posterior IRFs are often close, so that the concern raised by Baumeister and Hamilton (2015) appears to be relevant. Evidence from a multivariate permanent-transitory decomposition of GDP shocks is markedly sharper. It points towards material changes in the IRFs: at the ZLB the IRFs of GDP and unemployment exhibit more inertia, the response of prices is flatter, and the responses of interest rates are weaker.

     

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    hdl: 10419/278547
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / Universität Bern, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, Department of Economics ; 23, 06 (March, 2023)
    Schlagworte: Zero Lower Bound; Bayesian VARs; structural VARs; monetary policy; sign restrictions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Endogenous growth, downward wage rigidities and optimal inflation
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Standard New Keynesian (NK) models feature an optimal inflation target well below two percent, limited welfare losses from business cycle fluctuations and long-term monetary neutrality. We develop a NK framework with labour market frictions,... mehr

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    Standard New Keynesian (NK) models feature an optimal inflation target well below two percent, limited welfare losses from business cycle fluctuations and long-term monetary neutrality. We develop a NK framework with labour market frictions, endogenous productivity and downward wage rigidity (DWR) which challenges these results. The model features a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve between inflation and unemployment and a trade-off between price distortions and output hysteresis that change the welfare-maximizing inflation level. For a plausible set of parameters, the optimal inflation target is in excess of two percent, a target value commonly used across central banks. Deviations from the optimal target carry welfare costs multiple times higher than in traditional NK models. The main reason is that endogenous growth and DWR generate asymmetric and hysteresis effects on unemployment and output. Price level targeting or a Taylor-rule responding to the unemployment rate can handle better the asymmetric and hysteresis effects in our model and deliver significant welfare gains. Our results are robust to the inclusion of the effective lower bound on the monetary policy interest rate

     

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  14. Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound
    Erschienen: 15 November 2021
    Verlag:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    We evaluate and compare alternative monetary policy rules, namely average inflation targeting, price level targeting, and traditional inflation targeting rules, in a standard New Keynesian model that features recurring, transient zero lower bound... mehr

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    We evaluate and compare alternative monetary policy rules, namely average inflation targeting, price level targeting, and traditional inflation targeting rules, in a standard New Keynesian model that features recurring, transient zero lower bound regimes. We use determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) of equilibrium as the criteria for stabilization policy. We find that price level targeting policy, including nominal income targeting as a special case, most effectively promotes determinacy and E-stability among the policy frameworks, whereas standard inflation targeting rules are prone to indeterminacy. Average inflation targeting can induce determinacy and E-stability effectively, provided the averaging window is sufficiently long.

     

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    ISBN: 9789523233911
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249594
    Schriftenreihe: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2021, 14
    Schlagworte: Zero Lower Bound; Markov-Switching; Expectations; Price level targeting; Average inflation targeting; Nominal income targeting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Essays in Macroeconomics
  16. On the empirical relevance of the exchange rate as a shock absorber at the zero lower bound
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    We estimate the effects of a negative asymmetric demand shock on the real exchange rate for the euro area vis-à-vis the United States, Canada, and Japan by state-dependent sign-restricted local projection methods. We find a real depreciation when... mehr

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    We estimate the effects of a negative asymmetric demand shock on the real exchange rate for the euro area vis-à-vis the United States, Canada, and Japan by state-dependent sign-restricted local projection methods. We find a real depreciation when interest rates are not at the ZLB, but also when they are. The exchange rate can accomodate considerable variations in output, confirming its shock-absorbing capacity before and during the ZLB episode. The stabilizing role of the exchange rate is accompanied by a significant expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet at the ZLB, while it remained unaffected in the pre-ZLB period. Our empirical results can be reconciled with an open economy New Keynesian model extended with unconventional monetary policy measures when interest rates are at the ZLB.

     

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    ISBN: 9783957299413
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273722
    Auflage/Ausgabe: February 3, 2023
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2023, 10
    Schlagworte: Zero Lower Bound; Exchange Rate; Local Projections; State-dependent Effects; Unconventional Monetary Policy; Demand Shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Counter-cyclical fiscal rules and the zero lower bound
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We analyse the effectiveness of optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal policy rules in stabilising economic activity, inflation and government debt in face of an occasionally binding lower bound on the nominal interest rate in a New... mehr

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    We analyse the effectiveness of optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal policy rules in stabilising economic activity, inflation and government debt in face of an occasionally binding lower bound on the nominal interest rate in a New Keynesian model. We show that, within the traditional assignment of active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy, the optimal fiscal policy rule features a strong counter-cyclical response to the deviation of inflation from the central bank's target - providing significant macroeconomic stabilisation especially at the lower bound - while also featuring a strong response to government debt. Our quantitative results show that the optimal counter-cyclical fiscal feedback to inflation significantly improves welfare and reduces the lower-bound frequency. In addition, the optimal simple monetary and fiscal rules almost completely resolve the deflationary bias associated with the lower bound.

     

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    ISBN: 9789289953009
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/269122
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2715 (August 2022)
    Schlagworte: Fiscal Rules; Zero Lower Bound; Inflation Targeting; Deflationary Bias
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. On the empirical relevance of the exchange rate as a shock absorber at the zero lower bound
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg

    The open economy New Keynesian model with flexible exchange rates postulates that the real exchange rate appreciates in response to an asymmetric negative demand shock in a zero lower bound (ZLB) scenario and exacerbates the adverse macroeconomic... mehr

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    The open economy New Keynesian model with flexible exchange rates postulates that the real exchange rate appreciates in response to an asymmetric negative demand shock in a zero lower bound (ZLB) scenario and exacerbates the adverse macroeconomic effects. However, when monetary policy is able to accommodate the adverse effects of the negative demand shock via unconventional measures, the model can generate a real depreciation at the ZLB. This paper examines these counteracting exchange rate channels empirically. We estimate the effect of a negative asymmetric demand shock on the real exchange rate and inflation expectations as well as output and prices by employing state-dependent and sign-restricted local projection methods for the euro area vis-Ã -vis the United States, Canada, and Japan. We find that the real exchange rate depreciates when interest rates are not at the ZLB but also when they are. Furthermore, our empirical results show that the real exchange rate can absor considerable variations in output, confirming its shock-absorbing capacity before but also during the ZLB episode. The stabilizing role of the exchange rate is accompanied by a significant expansion of the ECBs balance sheet in the ZLB period, while it remained unaffected in the pre-ZLB period. Overall, our empirical results favor the open economy New Keynesian model with unconventional measures when interest rates are at the ZLB.

     

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    hdl: 10419/266032
    Schriftenreihe: Joint discussion paper series in economics ; no. 2022, 34
    Schlagworte: Zero Lower Bound; Exchange Rate; Local Projections; State-dependent Effects
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. A model of quantitative easing at the zero lower bound
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Bamberg Economic Research Group, Bamberg University, Bamberg

    The research question relates to the quantitative impact of government bond purchases of the European Central Bank on inflation and other economic variables at the zero lower bound. At the core is a standard New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General... mehr

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    The research question relates to the quantitative impact of government bond purchases of the European Central Bank on inflation and other economic variables at the zero lower bound. At the core is a standard New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with several financial frictions. The model replicates the intended effect of Quantitative Easing regarding the drop in the government bond yield at the expense of a rise in public debt, and displays the crowding out effect on the balance sheet of the bank which spurs credit and output. Amid lower levels of wages and consumption, the overall quantitative effect is nevertheless not inflationary but deflationary. After a shock to the credit supply, Quantitative Easing is activated more if the zero lower bound on the policy rate is in place. Output after the first period, consumption as well as wages and inflation drop more in the case of the zero lower bound and Quantitative Easing does not make up for the loss. The same findings for the economic performance marked by these four variables are obtained for the analysis at the zero lower bound when a shock hits the exposure of financial intermediaries to public debt.

     

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    ISBN: 9783949224041
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/264886
    Schriftenreihe: BERG working paper series ; no. 183 (July 2022)
    Schlagworte: Quantitative Easing; Taylor Rule; Zero Lower Bound; Moral Hazard
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
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  20. The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Dep., Dallas, Tex.

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 1405
    Schlagworte: Monetary Policy; Uncertainty; Economic Activity; Zero Lower Bound; Survey Data
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (18 S.), graph. Darst.
  21. How optimal was U.S. monetary policy at the zero lower bound?
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Federal Research Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, Mo.

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    Schriftenreihe: KcFED research working papers ; RWP 23, 14 (December 2023)
    Schlagworte: Monetary Policy; Inflation Expectations; Zero Lower Bound; Forward Guidance; Asset Purchases
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Aggregate uncertainty, HANK, and the ZLB
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We propose a novel methodology for solving Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian (HANK) models with aggregate uncertainty and the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Our efficient solution strategy combines the sequence-state Jacobian... mehr

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    We propose a novel methodology for solving Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian (HANK) models with aggregate uncertainty and the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Our efficient solution strategy combines the sequence-state Jacobian methodology in Auclert et al. (2021) with a tractable structure for aggregate uncertainty by means of a two-regimes shock structure. We apply the method to a simple HANK model to show that: 1) in the presence of aggregate non-linearities such as the ZLB, a dichotomy emerges between the aggregate impulse responses under aggregate uncertainty against the deterministic case; 2) aggregate uncertainty amplifies downturns at the ZLB, and household heterogeneity increases the strength of this amplification; 3) the effects of forward guidance are stronger when there is aggregate uncertainty.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789289963916
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/297351
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2911
    Schlagworte: Monetary Policy; New-Keynesian Models; Liquidity Traps; Zero Lower Bound; Computational Methods
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Staying at zero with affine processes
    an application to term structure modelling
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Banque de France, Paris

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Document de travail / Banque de France ; 558
    Schlagworte: Zero Lower Bound; Affine Process; Term-Structure Model; Lift-Off probabilities
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (41 S.), graph. Darst.
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  24. Forward guidance and the state of the economy
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Auburn Univ., Dep. of Economics, Auburn, Ala.

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Auburn University, Department of Economics ; 2015,10
    Schlagworte: Monetary Policy; Forward Guidance; Zero Lower Bound; News Shocks
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (36 S.), graph. Darst.
  25. An empirical assessment of optimal monetary policy delegation in the euro area
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Univ. of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School, Glasgow

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School ; 2014,20
    Schlagworte: Bayesian Estimation; Interest Rate Rules; Optimal Monetary Policy; Great Moderation; Commitment; Discretion; Zero Lower Bound; Financial Crisis; Great Recession
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (54 S.), graph. Darst.