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  1. Structural change revisited
    the rise of manufacturing jobs in the service sector
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    This paper reconsiders the labor market consequences of structural change over the past 43 years. Taking two different ways of defining manufacturing and service employment as point of departure - according to the industry classification of firms or... mehr

    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    This paper reconsiders the labor market consequences of structural change over the past 43 years. Taking two different ways of defining manufacturing and service employment as point of departure - according to the industry classification of firms or establishments and according to the occupation and hence the tasks of the workers - we show that structural change is far less pronounced than generally perceived. Manufacturing and service employment numbers based on the occupations of workers deviate markedly from the employment numbers based on the industry classification of employers. The decline in manufacturing jobs in Germany is far lower if the measurement of employment is based on the occupation of the worker. About 52% of manufacturing jobs that were lost in manufacturing industries between 1975 and 2017 are offset by new manufacturing jobs in service industries. This also has important implications for empirical applications. By way of example, we reestimate the effect of international trade on manufacturing employment based on the occupation of the worker. Contrary to previously identified negative effects, we cannot identify significant effects of import exposure on employment in manufacturing occupations. Using detailed, comprehensive German social security data, we show at the worker level that the service sector increasingly acts as a valuable alternative employment option for workers with manufacturing occupations. We estimate the causal effects of a switch to the service sector on employment outcomes by following workers over time after mass layoffs. The results reinforce our claim that structural change is less pronounced than perceived, as workers who retain their initial occupation and switch to employment in the service sector experience no significant differences in future employment trajectories compared to workers who manage to stay in the manufacturing sector.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9783957298461
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/245527
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2021, 38
    Schlagworte: Employment Structure; Structural Change; Organization of Production; Occupations; Within-Firm Adjustments; Germany
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Comprehensive development plan for El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and South-Southeast Mexico
    summary
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ECLAC, Santiago

    The Comprehensive Development Plan aims to create a sustainable development space and generate opportunities to improve the quality of life of the people of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and south-southeast Mexico, thus making migration a choice... mehr

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    The Comprehensive Development Plan aims to create a sustainable development space and generate opportunities to improve the quality of life of the people of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and south-southeast Mexico, thus making migration a choice rather than an obligation. This is an joined up response by the United Nations system, which seeks to generate synergies and coordinate actions with the countries at the centre and the support of subregional integration institutions.

     

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  3. Comprehensive development plan for El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and South-Southeast Mexico
    volume 2
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations, ECLAC, Santiago

    The Comprehensive Development Plan aims to create a sustainable development space and generate opportunities to improve the quality of life of the people of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and south-southeast Mexico, thus making migration a choice... mehr

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    The Comprehensive Development Plan aims to create a sustainable development space and generate opportunities to improve the quality of life of the people of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and south-southeast Mexico, thus making migration a choice rather than an obligation. This is an joined up response by the United Nations system, which seeks to generate synergies and coordinate actions with the countries at the centre and the support of subregional integration institutions. Foreword .-- 1. Economic development pillar. A. Enabling infrastructure development programme. B. Trade promotion and regional integration programme. C. Productive development programme. D. Territorial development programme. E. Macroeconomics for development programme .-- 2. Social well-being pillar. A. Social and labour inclusion programme. B. Life-skills programme. C. Comprehensive child development programme. D. Lifelong health programme. E. Violence prevention and culture of peace programme .-- 3. Environmental sustainability, climate change and adaptation, and disaster risk reduction pillar. A. Generation of knowledge, data and tools for adaptation to climate change and disaster risks programme. B. Programme for strengthened resilience to prevent disaster-driven displacement. C. Climate change and nature-based solutions programme .-- 4. Pillar for the integral management of the migration cycle. A. Comprehensive national response programme. B. Regional programmes.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 11362/47251
    Übergeordneter Titel: Comprehensive development plan for El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and South-Southeast Mexico - Alle Bände anzeigen
    Schriftenreihe: United Nations publication
    Schlagworte: Economic Growth; Inclusive Development; Infrastructure; International Migration; International Trade; Programme And Policy Evaluation; Public Policies; Regional Integration; Structural Change; Territorial Development; Economic Development; Social Development; Sustainable Development; Development Plans; Development Policy; Equality; Physical Infrastructure; Transport Infrastructure; Energy Resources; Foreign Trade; Trade Facilitation; Economic Integration; Industrial Development; Productivity; Value; Regional Development; Macroeconomics; Fiscal Policy; Social Welfare; Gender Equality; Social Security; Employment; Education; Child Development; Health; Violence; Social Problems; Human Rights; Justice; Environment; Climate Change; Natural Disasters; Migration; Migration Policy; DESARROLLO ECONOMICO; DESARROLLO SOCIAL; DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE; PLANES DE DESARROLLO; POLITICA DE DESARROLLO; IGUALDAD; INFRAESTRUCTURA FISICA; INFRAESTRUCTURA DEL TRANSPORTE; RECURSOS ENERGETICOS; COMERCIO EXTERIOR; FACILITACION DEL COMERCIO; INTEGRACION ECONOMICA; DESARROLLO REGIONAL; DESARROLLO INDUSTRIAL; PRODUCTIVIDAD; VALOR; MACROECONOMIA; POLITICA FISCAL; BIENESTAR SOCIAL; IGUALDAD DE GENERO; SEGURIDAD SOCIAL; EMPLEO; EDUCACION; DESARROLLO DEL NIÑO; SALUD; VIOLENCIA; PROBLEMAS SOCIALES; DERECHOS HUMANOS; JUSTICIA; MEDIO AMBIENTE; CAMBIO CLIMATICO; DESASTRES NATURALES; MIGRACION; POLITICA MIGRATORIA; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; DEVELOPMENT PLANS; DEVELOPMENT POLICY; EQUALITY; PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE; TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE; ENERGY RESOURCES; FOREIGN TRADE; TRADE FACILITATION; ECONOMIC INTEGRATION; INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT; PRODUCTIVITY; VALUE; REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT; MACROECONOMICS; FISCAL POLICY; SOCIAL WELFARE; GENDER EQUALITY; SOCIAL SECURITY; EMPLOYMENT; EDUCATION; CHILD DEVELOPMENT; HEALTH; VIOLENCE; SOCIAL PROBLEMS; HUMAN RIGHTS; JUSTICE; ENVIRONMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; NATURAL DISASTERS; MIGRATION; MIGRATION POLICY
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 640 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Comprehensive development plan for El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and South-Southeast Mexico
    volume 1
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations, ECLAC, Santiago

    The Comprehensive Development Plan aims to create a sustainable development space and generate opportunities to improve the quality of life of the people of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and south-southeast Mexico, thus making migration a choice... mehr

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    Ibero-Amerikanisches Institut Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Bibliothek
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    The Comprehensive Development Plan aims to create a sustainable development space and generate opportunities to improve the quality of life of the people of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and south-southeast Mexico, thus making migration a choice rather than an obligation. This is an joined up response by the United Nations system, which seeks to generate synergies and coordinate actions with the countries at the centre and the support of subregional integration institutions. Foreword .-- I. Priority areas for promoting development in northern Central America andsouth-southeast Mexico .-- II. A commitment to development .-- III. Policy recommendations .-- IV. Comprehensive development plan: a strategic proposal .-- V. Country prioritization process. A. El Salvador. B. Guatemala. C. Honduras. D. México.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 11362/47247
    Übergeordneter Titel: Comprehensive development plan for El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and South-Southeast Mexico - Alle Bände anzeigen
    Schriftenreihe: United Nations publication
    Schlagworte: Infrastructure; International Migration; International Trade; Programme And Policy Evaluation; Public Policies; Regional Integration; Structural Change; Sustainable Development; Territorial Development; Economic Growth; Gender Equality; Inclusive Development; Economic Development; Social Development; Development Plans; Development Policy; Equality; Physical Infrastructure; Transport Infrastructure; Energy Resources; Foreign Trade; Trade Facilitation; Economic Integration; Industrial Development; Productivity; Value; Regional Development; Macroeconomics; Fiscal Policy; Social Welfare; Social Security; Employment; Education; Child Development; Health; Violence; Social Problems; Human Rights; Justice; Environment; Climate Change; Natural Disasters; Migration; Migration Policy; DESARROLLO ECONOMICO; DESARROLLO SOCIAL; DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE; PLANES DE DESARROLLO; POLITICA DE DESARROLLO; IGUALDAD; INFRAESTRUCTURA FISICA; INFRAESTRUCTURA DEL TRANSPORTE; RECURSOS ENERGETICOS; COMERCIO EXTERIOR; FACILITACION DEL COMERCIO; INTEGRACION ECONOMICA; DESARROLLO INDUSTRIAL; PRODUCTIVIDAD; VALOR; DESARROLLO REGIONAL; MACROECONOMIA; POLITICA FISCAL; BIENESTAR SOCIAL; IGUALDAD DE GENERO; SEGURIDAD SOCIAL; EMPLEO; EDUCACION; DESARROLLO DEL NIÑO; SALUD; VIOLENCIA; PROBLEMAS SOCIALES; DERECHOS HUMANOS; JUSTICIA; MEDIO AMBIENTE; CAMBIO CLIMATICO; DESASTRES NATURALES; MIGRACION; POLITICA MIGRATORIA; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; DEVELOPMENT PLANS; DEVELOPMENT POLICY; EQUALITY; PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE; TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE; ENERGY RESOURCES; FOREIGN TRADE; TRADE FACILITATION; ECONOMIC INTEGRATION; INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT; PRODUCTIVITY; VALUE; REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT; MACROECONOMICS; FISCAL POLICY; SOCIAL WELFARE; GENDER EQUALITY; SOCIAL SECURITY; EMPLOYMENT; EDUCATION; CHILD DEVELOPMENT; HEALTH; VIOLENCE; SOCIAL PROBLEMS; HUMAN RIGHTS; JUSTICE; ENVIRONMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; NATURAL DISASTERS; MIGRATION; MIGRATION POLICY
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 240 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. When does foreign direct investment lead to inclusive growth?
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Center for Public Policy ; 21, 04 (February 2021)
    Schlagworte: FDI; Inclusive Growth; Manufacturing; Infrastructure; Structural Change
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The European countries
    the role of services : special session SS33, Services and the Territory: Spatial Aspects and Problems of Service Activities
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  European Regional Science Association, [Louvain-la-Neuve]

    The relationship between economic structure and productivity growth has been a subject of increasing interest over recent decades. The innovative focus of this paper concerns the role of the service sector in this relationship at a regional level.... mehr

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    The relationship between economic structure and productivity growth has been a subject of increasing interest over recent decades. The innovative focus of this paper concerns the role of the service sector in this relationship at a regional level. Services play a core role in advanced economies, both from a quantitative and a strategic point of view. Traditionally, productivity has been introduced as explaining factor of tertiarization processes in advanced economies, while it has been simultaneously assessed that services display lower productivity levels and growth rates than other economic industries. Nevertheless, in recent years many papers and authors have refuted or limited these conventional theses. This paper focuses on the impact of tertiarization on overall productivity growth, using a sample of European NUTS-2 regions in the period between 1980 and 2007. The results partially refute traditional knowledge on the productivity of services. Contrary to what conventional theories suggest, this research demonstrates that several tertiary activities have shown dynamic productivity growth rates, while their contribution to overall productivity growth plays a more important role than was historically believed.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/118823
    Schriftenreihe: Sustainable regional growth and development in the creative knowledge economy : 50th ERSA Congress : 19 - 23 August 2010, Jönköping, Sweden / European Regional Science Association
    Schlagworte: Service sector; Structural Change; Productivity; Regional Growth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The employer of last resort scheme and the energy transition: a stock-flow consistent analysis
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  Levy Economics Institute, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY

    The health and economic crises of 2020-21 have revived the debate on fiscal policy as a major tool for stabilization and meeting long-term goals. The massive surge in unemployment, due to the economic disruption of the lockdown measures, has... mehr

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    The health and economic crises of 2020-21 have revived the debate on fiscal policy as a major tool for stabilization and meeting long-term goals. The massive surge in unemployment, due to the economic disruption of the lockdown measures, has increased the interest in policies that target employment directly instead of trying to achieve it via a general "demand push." One of the proposals currently under debate is the job guarantee. Under such a policy the government would act as an "employer of last resort" by offering a job to everyone that is able and wants to work but cannot find a job in the private sector. This paper argues that a carefully designed scheme of direct employment and public provision by the state - addressing both the low- and high-skill workforce - can have permanent effects and promote the economy's structural transformation, in particular by fostering energy transition and a lower carbon footprint. Starting from this point, a stock-flow consistent model is developed to study the long-run effect of the job guarantee's implementation, inspired by the work of Godin (2013) and Sawyer and Passarella (2021).

     

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    hdl: 10419/249783
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Levy Economics Institute of Bard College ; no. 995
    Schlagworte: Stock-Flow Consistent Models; Job Guarantee; Structural Change; EnergyTransition
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The rise of the service sector in the global economy
    Erschienen: 16 December 2020
    Verlag:  Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), Maastricht, The Netherlands

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / United Nations University, UNU-MERIT ; #2020, 056
    Schlagworte: Service Sector; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global Economy; Structural Change; Baumol'sHypothesis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten)
  9. The link between financial globalisation and integration into global value chains and macroeconomic impacts
    Autor*in: Hölzl, Werner
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Wien

    This paper examines the association between participation in global value chains and financial globalisation measured by international net and capital flows. The results show that financial globalisation and the rise of global value chains are... mehr

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    This paper examines the association between participation in global value chains and financial globalisation measured by international net and capital flows. The results show that financial globalisation and the rise of global value chains are related but not two sides of the same coin. In fact, we find that GVC participation is positively associated with equity capital flows but negatively associated with debt capital flows. We also study the association of GVC participation and capital flows with aggregate economic outcomes. The findings show that both GVC participation and equity flows affect the share of mortgage and business credit. But we uncover also important differences in the impact of capital flows between advanced and emerging countries. Regarding changes in the economic structure our results suggest a positive association of both GVC participation and equity inflows on the manufacturing share, while debt inflows are primarily associated with a growth of the service sector in advanced economies, but not in emerging and developing countries. The finding that there is no strong association between the globalisation indicators and innovation suggests that the fragmentation of value chains leads to functional specialisation in tasks and tends to weaken the link between innovation and production at country level. We find in addition that a higher GVC participation is weakly associated with a higher growth of government revenue, as are debt flows but only in advances countries. This finding suggests also that debt flows were redirected primarily into safe countries in advanced countries.

     

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    hdl: 10419/235591
    Schriftenreihe: WIFO working papers ; 632 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Globalisation; Financial Flows; Global Value Chains; Structural Change; Innovation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Structural change towards services
    Autor*in: Hölzl, Werner
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Wien

    This paper examines broad patterns of structural change for a large number of countries on a global scale and for a smaller set of advanced industrialised countries over time. The findings show that structural change over the past decades followed... mehr

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    This paper examines broad patterns of structural change for a large number of countries on a global scale and for a smaller set of advanced industrialised countries over time. The findings show that structural change over the past decades followed the three-sector hypothesis. The past decades were characterised by the rise of the service sector, driven especially by business services and non-market service. At the same time as manufacturing sectors are declining in terms of shares, they remain the sectors with the highest contributions to aggregate productivity growth. An analysis of determinants of structural change confirms that country competencies related to institutional quality, knowledge generation and industrial application of the new knowledge are an important driving force of structural changes towards services, but that they have a heterogeneous impact on manufacturing subsectors. High technology manufacturing share seems not to be characterised by a tendency to decline with the development of country competencies. Broad policy implications are discussed.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/235592
    Schriftenreihe: WIFO working papers ; 631 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Structural Change; Service Share; Manufacturing Share
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. How has globalisation affected the economic growth, structural change and poverty reduction linkages?
    insights from international comparisons
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), Maastricht, The Netherlands

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / United Nations University, UNU-MERIT ; #2019, 015
    Schlagworte: Economic Growth; Globalisation; Structural Change; Poverty reduction; Cross country analysis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Specialize or diversify?
    and in what? : trade composition, quality of specialization and persistent growth
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  LEM, Laboratory of Economics and Management, Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy

    This paper, using a long-term, product-level cross-country dataset, analyzes the trade-growth nexus by introducing two novel indicators able to capture demand and supply attributes of countries' quality of specialization. The Keynesian efficiency... mehr

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    This paper, using a long-term, product-level cross-country dataset, analyzes the trade-growth nexus by introducing two novel indicators able to capture demand and supply attributes of countries' quality of specialization. The Keynesian efficiency index measures demand attractiveness of the export baskets, estimating product-level demand elasticities and weighting them by diversification; the Schumpeterian efficiency index tracks the export basket' technological dynamism proxied by product-level patent intensities. These two dimensions of quality of specialization are effective in explaining the rate and volatility of growth and the duration of growth episodes, identified as periods longer than 8 years of 2% average growth and, even more, of exceptional growth episodes (≥5%). Our results, robust to a wide range of control variables, suggest that specialization per sé is detrimental for growth resilience while countries with a diversified export structure, specialised either in demand-elastic and technological-dynamic productions are likely to experience longer growth episodes.

     

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    hdl: 10419/259544
    Schriftenreihe: LEM working paper series ; 2022, 01 (January 2022)
    Schlagworte: Diversifikation; Arbeitsteilung; Außenhandel; Strukturwandel; Wirtschaftswachstum; Schumpeterismus; Keynesianismus; Structural Change; International Trade; Growth Episodes
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. The labour share along global value chains
    perspectives and evidence from sectoral interdependence
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  LEM, Laboratory of Economics and Management, Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy

    This article proposes a novel framework to investigate how globalisation affects workers' share of value added. We explore functional income distribution by looking at industrial interdependence and thus identifying GVCs as the unit of analysis; we... mehr

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    This article proposes a novel framework to investigate how globalisation affects workers' share of value added. We explore functional income distribution by looking at industrial interdependence and thus identifying GVCs as the unit of analysis; we then track inputs composition and their labour share evolution along the value chains. First, we find widespread heterogeneous patterns across value chains components, accounting for the direct, domestic and foreign requirements of the chains, inside an overall declining trend. Second, we study the evolution of the vertical labour share along development stages. Finally, by means of a shift-share analysis, we investigate what drives such decline in the vertical labour share: albeit country-sector idiosyncratic factors accounted by the within-input component contribute the most, between-input reallocation - GVCs restructuring - matters particularly to detect the role played by foreign contributions. In essence, we provide evidence of a recombination of inputs toward emerging economies and service-based activities. Such recombination negatively impacts upon the overall labour share dynamics. Overall, our methodology contributes to better understanding the process of fragmentation of production and international division of labour by developing a series of novel and fine-grained indicators; in addition, it allows to study the ensuing implication for functional income distribution.

     

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    hdl: 10419/266081
    Schriftenreihe: LEM working paper series ; 2022, 11 (April 2022)
    Schlagworte: Structural Change; Global Value Chains; Labour Share
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Financial barriers to structural change in developing economies
    a theoretical framework
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  Levy Economics Institute, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY

    Liabilities denominated in foreign currency have established a permanent role on emerging market firms' balance sheets, which implies that changes in both global liquidity conditions and in the value of the currency may have a long-lasting effect for... mehr

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    Liabilities denominated in foreign currency have established a permanent role on emerging market firms' balance sheets, which implies that changes in both global liquidity conditions and in the value of the currency may have a long-lasting effect for them. In order to consider the financial conditions that may encourage (discourage) structural change in a small, open economy, we adopt the framework put forward by the "monetary theory of distribution" (MTD). More specifically, we follow the formulation adopted by Dvoskin and Feldman (2019), whereby the financial system is intended as a basic sector that promotes innovation (Schumpeter 1911). In accordance with this, financial conditions are binding only for the innovative entrepreneurs, whose methods of production are not dominant and hence they need to borrow from banks to kickstart their production. Through this device, our model offers an explanation of the technological lock-in experienced by a small, open economy that takes international prices as given.

     

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    hdl: 10419/273866
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Levy Economics Institute of Bard College ; no. 1004
    Schlagworte: Foreign Exchange Policy; Currency Mismatches; Structural Change
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Small business development, structural change and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Universitätsbibliothek der Universität Siegen, Siegen

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  16. Economic complexity and greenhouse gas emission intensity
    Erschienen: May 2020
    Verlag:  Cambridge Centre for Economic and Public Policy, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, [Cambridge]

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: CCEPP WP ; 20, 03
    Schlagworte: Economic Complexity; Greenhouse Gas Emission; Economic Development; Structural Change; Product Emission Intensity Index
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Structural change, productive development, and capital flows
    does financial "bonanza" cause premature deindustrialization?
    Erschienen: January 2022
    Verlag:  Levy Economics Institute, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY

    The outbreak of COVID-19 brought back to the forefront the crucial importance of structural change and productive development for economic resilience to economic shocks. Several recent contributions have already stressed the perverse relationship... mehr

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    The outbreak of COVID-19 brought back to the forefront the crucial importance of structural change and productive development for economic resilience to economic shocks. Several recent contributions have already stressed the perverse relationship that may exist between productive backwardness and the intensity of the COVID-19 socioeconomic crisis. In this paper, we analyze the factors that may have hindered productive development for over four decades before the pandemic. We investigate the role of (non-FDI) net capital inflows as a potential source of premature deindustrialization. We consider a sample of 36 developed and developing countries from 1980 to 2017, with major emphasis on the case of emerging and developing economies (EDE) in the context of increasing financial integration. We show that periods of abundant capital inflows may have caused the significant contraction of manufacturing share to employment and GDP, as well as the decrease of the economic complexity index. We also show that phenomena of "perverse" structural change are significantly more relevant in EDE countries than advanced ones. Based on such evidence, we conclude with some policy suggestions highlighting capital controls and external macroprudential measures taming international capital mobility as useful tools for promoting long-run productive development on top of strengthening (short-term) financial and macroeconomic stability.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273862
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Levy Economics Institute of Bard College ; no. 999
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; Structural Change; Capital Inflows; Macroprudential Policies
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  18. Global value chains and premature deindustrialisation in Malaysia
    Autor*in: Lee, Cassey
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, [Jakarta]

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    Schriftenreihe: ERIA discussion paper series ; ERIA-DP-2021-56 = no. 423
    Schlagworte: Structural Change; Deindustrialisation; Global Value Chain
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  19. Monetary policy when export revenues drop
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Norges Bank, Oslo

    We study how monetary policy should respond to shocks which permanently alter the steady state structure of the economy. In such a case monetary policy affects not only the short run misallocations due to nominal rigidities, but also relative prices... mehr

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    We study how monetary policy should respond to shocks which permanently alter the steady state structure of the economy. In such a case monetary policy affects not only the short run misallocations due to nominal rigidities, but also relative prices which stimulate reallocation of capital. We consider a permanent and negative shock to export revenues that requires a larger traded sector and a smaller non-traded sector in the new steady state. This reallocation calls for a change in relative prices during the transition, but may also lead to a period of high unemployment. We show how an appropriate monetary policy could mitigate the welfare costs of the transition by allowing the exchange rate to depreciate, and thereby allowing inflation to increase in the short run. Traditional monetary policy regimes, such as inflation targeting or a fixed exchange rate, would imply high unemployment and inefficiently slow transition. Stabilizing nominal wage growth, in contrast, would be close to the welfare-optimal monetary policy.

     

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    ISBN: 9788283792522
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 11250/3036133
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Norges Bank ; 2022, 11
    Schlagworte: Structural Change; Dutch Disease; Monetary Policy
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  20. The economic and environmental effects of a green employer of last resort
    a sectoral multiplier analysis for the United States
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  Levy Economics Institute, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY

    We assess the sectoral impact of the implementation of a "green" employer of last resort (ELR) program in the US, based on an environmental modification of an extended Kurz's (1985) multiplier framework and data from OECD Input-Output tables. We use... mehr

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    We assess the sectoral impact of the implementation of a "green" employer of last resort (ELR) program in the US, based on an environmental modification of an extended Kurz's (1985) multiplier framework and data from OECD Input-Output tables. We use these multipliers to estimate the impact of an "optimal" ELR, designed to maximize the impact on both output and employment while minimizing both imports and carbon emissions. We then test several alternative policy scenarios based upon different compositions of US government expenditure. We provide evidence that (1) investing in the optimal sectors in terms of output, employment, Co2, and import multipliers does not always deliver optimal results in the aggregate; (2) ecological sustainability for the US economy also fosters import sustainability; (3) a rebounding effect in Co2 emissions may be tamed if the ELR satisfies the abovementioned optimality condition, though this undermines its success in terms of output and employment.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273875
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Levy Economics Institute of Bard College ; no. 1013
    Schlagworte: Employer of Last Resort; Structural Change; Energy Transition
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  21. Dynamic autoregressive liquidity (DArLiQ)
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge

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    Schriftenreihe: Cambridge working paper in economics ; 2214
    Janeway Institute working paper series ; 2022, 06
    Schlagworte: Nonparametric; Semiparametric; Splits; Structural Change
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  22. Financial development, globalization, and structural transformation in developing countries
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Département des Sciences Économiques, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, (Québec), Canada

    Rodrik (2016) pointed out that late industrializing countries are experiencing a lower peak at lower income levels in the manufacturing employment share hump-shaped path. The present study develops a theoretical model to analyze the dynamics of... mehr

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    Rodrik (2016) pointed out that late industrializing countries are experiencing a lower peak at lower income levels in the manufacturing employment share hump-shaped path. The present study develops a theoretical model to analyze the dynamics of industrialization and deindustrialization in developing countries and their integration with earlier industrialized economies. The findings suggest that financial development plays a crucial role in both accelerating industrialization and facilitating deindustrialization. Moreover, the model reveals that when developing countries integrate with economies in deindustrialization, the technological frontier in the manufacturing sector becomes relatively further ahead compared to the services sector. This discrepancy in technological proximity between sectors influences the differential productivity growth rates in manufacturing and services, driving an early shift towards the services sector. The model is calibrated to South African data from 1960 to 2010 and provides empirical support for these findings.

     

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / ESG UQÀM, Département des sciences économiques, École des sciences de la gestion, Université du Québec à Montréal ; no. 2023, 03 (Août 2023)
    Schlagworte: Structural Change; Sectoral Productivity Growth; Financial Development; Technology Adoption
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Monetary policy when export revenues drop
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  BI Norwegian Business School, Centre for Applied Macro - Petroleum economics (CAMP), Oslo

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 11250/3032376
    Schriftenreihe: CAMP working paper series ; no. 2022, 4
    Schlagworte: Structural Change; Dutch Disease; Monetary Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Soziale Bürgerrechte im Museum
    die Repräsentation sozialer Demokratie in neun kulturhistorischen Museen
    Erschienen: [2020]; © 2020
    Verlag:  transcript, Bielefeld

    Demokratie wird in kulturhistorischen Museen vornehmlich als politische Demokratie repräsentiert. Ihre sozialen Voraussetzungen und die Bedeutung der sozialen Demokratie für die Regulierung der Arbeitswelt und des Verteilungskonfliktes werden meist... mehr

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    Freie Universität Berlin, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staatliche Museen zu Berlin, Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Kunstbibliothek
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    Demokratie wird in kulturhistorischen Museen vornehmlich als politische Demokratie repräsentiert. Ihre sozialen Voraussetzungen und die Bedeutung der sozialen Demokratie für die Regulierung der Arbeitswelt und des Verteilungskonfliktes werden meist unterschlagen. Soziale Rechte sind jedoch Voraussetzung und Bedingung für politische Rechte, die Staatsbürger*innen erst in den Stand setzen, ihre Interessen individuell und kollektiv zu vertreten. Wolfgang Jäger analysiert vor diesem Hintergrund Dauerausstellungen großer Museen und zeigt dabei gelungene Ansätze, aber auch die Defizite bei der Repräsentation sozialer Demokratie, auf. Sein Credo: Demokratiegeschichte im Museum ist ohne soziale Demokratie nur die halbe Geschichte

     

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  25. Stichworte zur Zeit
    ein Glossar
    Erschienen: [2020]; © 2020
    Verlag:  transcript, Bielefeld

    Die Frage »Wie wollen wir in Zukunft leben?« ist in aller Munde. Aber in welcher Welt leben wir eigentlich jetzt gerade? So banal es klingt: Es gehört zum Schwierigsten, Abstand zu gewinnen, um das eigene Jetzt klarer zu sehen. Und gerade in den... mehr

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    Die Frage »Wie wollen wir in Zukunft leben?« ist in aller Munde. Aber in welcher Welt leben wir eigentlich jetzt gerade? So banal es klingt: Es gehört zum Schwierigsten, Abstand zu gewinnen, um das eigene Jetzt klarer zu sehen. Und gerade in den aktuellen Krisenzeiten kommt es darauf an, besser zu verstehen, was vor sich geht. Deshalb wiederholt die Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung - 40 Jahre nach den »Stichworten zur geistigen Situation der Zeit« - das Experiment nochmals, wie aus verschiedenen disziplinären Richtungen interessante Perspektiven auf unsere Gegenwart gewonnen werden können. Dazu fragt sie Intellektuelle zu zentralen gesellschafts- und kulturdiagnostischen Stichworten unserer Zeit. Und was im Einzelnen assoziativ ist, wirft als Ganzes Licht auf das Unbekannte und Übersehene unserer Gesellschaft. Von A bis Z mit diesem Buch auf der Höhe der Zeit

     

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