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  1. Real Effects of Stabilizing Private Money Creation
    Autor*in: Xu, Chenzi; Yang, He
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We show that decentralized privately created money with unstable values can hinder the traded, more transaction-friction sensitive, sector of the economy. We do so in the context of the NationalBanking Act of 1864 in the United States that created a... mehr

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    We show that decentralized privately created money with unstable values can hinder the traded, more transaction-friction sensitive, sector of the economy. We do so in the context of the NationalBanking Act of 1864 in the United States that created a new federally-regulated, fully-backed currency as an alternative to the pre-existing money supply, which consisted of unsecured notes printed by thousands of local private banks. Using a discontinuous change across towns in the costs of accessing this new type of stable, federally-backed money as a natural experiment, we show that places gaining access to the new currency experienced a shift in the composition of agricultural production from non-traded to traded goods and increased employment in trade-related professions. In addition, counties gaining access to the new stable money increased their manufacturing output by sourcing more inputs, and they innovated more, all consistent with the stable currency improving their market access and allowing them to expand through trade

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30060
    Schlagworte: Geldmenge; Geldschöpfung; Währungssystem; Finanzmarkt; Geldangebotstheorie; Geldgeschichte; USA; National Banking Act; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers; Empirical Studies of Trade; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages; U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913; U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
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  2. Fiscal Histories
    Autor*in: Cochrane, John H.
    Erschienen: August 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of real primary surpluses. Monetary policy remains important. The central bank can set an interest rate target, which determines the... mehr

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    The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of real primary surpluses. Monetary policy remains important. The central bank can set an interest rate target, which determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the present value of surpluses drives unexpected inflation. I use fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long quiet zero bound of the 2010s, and the reemergence of inflation in 2021, as well as to analyze the gold standard, currency pegs, the ends of hyperinflations, currency crashes, and the success of inflation targets. Going forward, fiscal theory warns that inflation will have to be tamed by coordinated monetary and fiscal policy. I thank Erik Hurst, Ed Nelson, Nina Pavcnik, and Timothy Taylor for helpful comments

     
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  3. A Model of the Gold Standard
    Autor*in: Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Sanches, Daniel
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The gold standard emerged as the international monetary system by the end of the 19th century. We formally study its properties in a micro-founded model and find that the scarcity of the world gold stock not only results in a suboptimal output of... mehr

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    The gold standard emerged as the international monetary system by the end of the 19th century. We formally study its properties in a micro-founded model and find that the scarcity of the world gold stock not only results in a suboptimal output of goods that are purchased with money but also subjects the domestic economy of a country to external shocks. The creation of inside money in the form of private credit instruments adds to the money supply, usually resulting in a Pareto improvement, but opens the door to the international transmission of banking crises. These properties of the gold standard can explain the limited adherence by peripheral countries because of the potential risks to their economies. We argue that the gold standard can be sustainable at the core but not at the periphery

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30457
    Schlagworte: Goldstandard; Internationales Währungssystem; Monetäre Außenwirtschaftstheorie; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Central Banks and Their Policies; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
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  4. Perceptions about Monetary Policy
    Autor*in: Bauer, Michael D.; Pflueger, Carolin E.; Sunderam, Adi
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy... mehr

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    We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy cycle, easings are perceived to be quick and surprising, while tightenings are perceived to be gradual and data-dependent. Consistent with the idea that forecasters learn about the policy rule from policy decisions, the perceived monetary policy rule responds to high-frequency monetary policy surprises. Variation in the perceived rule impacts financial markets, explaining changes in the sensitivity of interest rates to macroeconomic announcements and affecting risk premia on long-term Treasury bonds. It also helps explain forecast errors for the future federal funds rate. We interpret these findings through the lens of a model with forecaster heterogeneity and learning from observed policy decisions

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30480
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Geldpolitische Transmission; Wirtschaftsprognose; Behavioral Macroeconomics; Money and Interest Rates; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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  5. Central Bank Digital Currencies, an Old Tale With a New Chapter
    Autor*in: Bordo, Michael D.; Roberds, William
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We consider the debut of a new monetary instrument, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Drawing on examples from monetary history, we argue that a successful monetary transformation must combine microeconomic efficiency with macroeconomic... mehr

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    We consider the debut of a new monetary instrument, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Drawing on examples from monetary history, we argue that a successful monetary transformation must combine microeconomic efficiency with macroeconomic credibility. A paradoxical feature of these transformations is that success in the micro dimension can encourage macro failure. Overcoming this paradox may require politically uncomfortable compromises. We propose that such compromises will be necessary for the success of CBDCs

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30709
    Schlagworte: Virtuelle Währung; Zentralbank; Geldgeschichte; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Central Banks and Their Policies; General, International, or Comparative
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  6. How Abundant Are Reserves? Evidence from the Wholesale Payment System
    Autor*in: Afonso, Gara; Duffie, Darrell; Rigon, Lorenzo; Shin, Hyun Song
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Before the era of large central bank balance sheets, banks relied on incoming payments to fund outgoing payments in order to conserve scarce liquidity. Even in the era of large central bank balance sheets, rather than funding payments with abundant... mehr

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    Before the era of large central bank balance sheets, banks relied on incoming payments to fund outgoing payments in order to conserve scarce liquidity. Even in the era of large central bank balance sheets, rather than funding payments with abundant reserve balances, we show that outgoing payments remain highly sensitive to incoming payments. By providing a window on liquidity constraints revealed by payment behavior, our results shed light on thresholds for the adequacy of reserve balances. Our findings are timely, given the ongoing shrinking of central bank balance sheets around the world in response to inflation

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30736
    Schlagworte: Zahlungsverkehr; Geldpolitik; Clearing; Quantitative Lockerung; Mindestreserve; Bankenliquidität; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Monetary Policy; Central Banks and Their Policies; Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
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  7. Quantifying the Costs and Benefits of Quantitative Easing
    Autor*in: Levin, Andrew T.; Lu, Brian L.; Nelson, William R.
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We conduct a systematic analysis of the costs and benefits of large-scale securities purchases, using the Federal Reserve's QE4 program as a concrete example. This program was initiated at the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 and continued for two... mehr

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    We conduct a systematic analysis of the costs and benefits of large-scale securities purchases, using the Federal Reserve's QE4 program as a concrete example. This program was initiated at the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 and continued for two years, leading to a doubling of the Fed's securities holdings to about $8.5 trillion as of March 2022. QE4 was initially aimed at mitigating strains in markets for Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities but was subsequently aimed more broadly at supporting market functioning and providing monetary stimulus. Nonetheless, QE4 did not have any notable benefits in reducing term premiums. Moreover, since the securities purchases were financed by expanding the Fed's short-term liabilities, QE4 amplified the interest rate risk associated with the publicly-held debt of the consolidated federal government. Our simulation analysis indicates that QE4 is likely to reduce the Federal Reserve's remittances to the U.S. Treasury by about $760 billion over the next ten years

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30749
    Schlagworte: Quantitative Lockerung; Zentralbank; Geldpolitik; Inflationsbekämpfung; Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse; Wirkungsanalyse; USA; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Monetary Policy; Central Banks and Their Policies; Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
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  8. Central Banks as Dollar Lenders of Last Resort
    Implications for Regulation and Reserve Holdings
    Autor*in: Das, Mitali; Gopinath, Gita; Kim, Taehoon; Stein, Jeremy C.
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper explores how non-U.S. central banks behave when firms in their economies engage in currency mismatch, borrowing more heavily in dollars than justified by their operating exposures. We begin by documenting that, in a panel of 53 countries,... mehr

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    This paper explores how non-U.S. central banks behave when firms in their economies engage in currency mismatch, borrowing more heavily in dollars than justified by their operating exposures. We begin by documenting that, in a panel of 53 countries, central bank holdings of dollar reserves are significantly correlated with the dollar-denominated bank borrowing of their non-financial corporate sectors, controlling for a number of known covariates of reserve accumulation. We then build a model in which the central bank can deal with private-sector mismatch, and the associated risk of a domestic financial crisis, in two ways: (i) by imposing ex ante financial regulations such as bank capital requirements; or (ii) by building a stockpile of dollar reserves that allow it to serve as an ex post dollar lender of last resort. The model highlights a novel externality: individual central banks may tend to over-accumulate dollar reserves, relative to what a global planner would choose. This is because individual central banks do not internalize that their hoarding of reserves exacerbates a global scarcity of dollar-denominated safe assets, which lowers dollar interest rates and encourages firms to increase the currency mismatch of their liabilities. Relative to the decentralized outcome, a global planner may prefer stricter financial regulation (e.g., higher bank capital requirements) and reduced holdings of dollar reserves

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30787
    Schlagworte: Außenhandel; US-Dollar; Währungssubstitution; Währungsreserven; Lender of Last Resort; Zentralbank; Geldpolitik; Kapitalbedarf; Internationaler Finanzmarkt; Welt; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; International Financial Markets
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  9. International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance
    Autor*in: Bianchi, Javier; Sosa Padilla, César
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper investigates the implications of international financial sanctions for the reserve currency status of the US dollar. We propose a simple model of a reserve currency, demonstrate how the anticipation of financial sanctions can weaken the... mehr

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    This paper investigates the implications of international financial sanctions for the reserve currency status of the US dollar. We propose a simple model of a reserve currency, demonstrate how the anticipation of financial sanctions can weaken the dollar's status, and evaluate the welfare implications

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31024
    Schlagworte: Sanktion; Wirkungsanalyse; US-Dollar; Reservewährung; Welt; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Foreign Exchange; Current Account Adjustment; Short-Term Capital Movements; International Lending and Debt Problems; Open Economy Macroeconomics; Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
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  10. A Major Shock Makes Prices More Flexible and May Result in a Burst of Inflation or Deflation
    Autor*in: Hall, Robert E.
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The US and other advanced countries suffered bursts of severe inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022, followed by declines of inflation later in 2022, in some countries. In times of high volatility of price determinants--cost and... mehr

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    The US and other advanced countries suffered bursts of severe inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022, followed by declines of inflation later in 2022, in some countries. In times of high volatility of price determinants--cost and productivity--inflation can jump upward and fall downward at high speed, contrary to the uniformly sticky behavior associated with traditional Phillips curves. This paper establishes that sectors with standard New Keynesian price stickiness are vulnerable to rapid transitions from stickiness to flexibility, as sellers elect to reset their prices and abandon anchoring. The paper shows that the cross-industry volatility of price determinants grew substantially in the inflation episode accompanying the pandemic. Volatility remained elevated even in late 2022. The logic of the New Keynesian model of the Phillips curve links inflation to volatility, because a larger fraction of sellers are pushed out of their regions of inaction when volatility is elevated. The New Keynesian Phillips curve becomes much steeper in volatile times

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31025
    Schlagworte: Inflation; Deflation; Inflationsrate; Volatilität; Preisrigidität; Phillips-Kurve; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
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  11. A Theory of Payments-Chain Crises
    Autor*in: Bigio, Saki
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper introduces an endogenous network of payments chains into a business cycle model. Agents order production in bilateral relations. Some payments are executed immediately. Other payments, chained payments, are delayed until other payments are... mehr

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    This paper introduces an endogenous network of payments chains into a business cycle model. Agents order production in bilateral relations. Some payments are executed immediately. Other payments, chained payments, are delayed until other payments are executed. Because production starts only after orders are paid, chained payments induce production delays. In equilibrium, agents choose the amount of chained payments given interest rates and access to internal funds or credit lines. This choice determines the payments-chain network and aggregate total-factor productivity (TFP). The paper characterizes equilibrium dynamics and their innate inefficiencies. Agents internalize the direct costs of their payment delays, but do not internalize the costs induced onto others. This externality produces novel policy insights and rationalizes permanent reductions in TFP under excessive debt

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30859
    Schlagworte: Finanzkrise; Zahlungsverkehr; Zahlungsverhalten; Produktivitätsentwicklung; Konjunkturtheorie; Finanzkrise; Zahlungsverkehr; Zahlungsverhalten; Produktivitätsentwicklung; Konjunkturtheorie; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Financial Crises
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  12. Anatomy of a Run
    The Terra Luna Crash
    Autor*in: Liu, Jiageng; Makarov, Igor; Schoar, Antoinette
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Terra, the third largest cryptocurrency ecosystem after Bitcoin and Ethereum, collapsed in three days in May 2022 and wiped out $50 billion in valuation. At the center of the collapse was a run on a blockchain-based borrowing and lending protocol... mehr

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    Terra, the third largest cryptocurrency ecosystem after Bitcoin and Ethereum, collapsed in three days in May 2022 and wiped out $50 billion in valuation. At the center of the collapse was a run on a blockchain-based borrowing and lending protocol (Anchor) that promised high yields to its stablecoin (UST) depositors. Using detailed data from the Terra blockchain and trading data from exchanges, we show that the run on Terra was a complex phenomenon that happened across multiple chains and assets. It was unlikely due to concentrated market manipulation by a third party but instead was precipitated by growing concerns about the sustainability of the system. Once a few large holders of UST adjusted their positions on May 7th, 2022, other large traders followed. Blockchain technology allowed investors to monitor each other's actions and amplified the speed of the run. Wealthier and more sophisticated investors were the first to run and experienced much smaller losses. Poorer and less sophisticated investors ran later and had larger losses. The complexity of the system made it difficult even for insiders to understand the buildup of risk. Finally, we draw broader lessons about financial fragility in an environment where a regulatory safety net does not exist, pseudonymous transactions are publicly observable, and market participants are incentivized to monitor the financial health of the system

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31160
    Schlagworte: Virtuelle Währung; Blockchain; Anlageverhalten; Bankenkrise; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
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  13. The Rise of E-Wallets and Buy-Now-Pay-Later
    Payment Competition, Credit Expansion, and Consumer Behavior
    Autor*in: Bian, Wenlong; Cong, Lin William; Ji, Yang
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The past decade has witnessed a phenomenal rise of digital wallets, and the COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated their adoption globally. Such e-wallets provide not only a conduit to external bank accounts but also internal payment options,... mehr

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    The past decade has witnessed a phenomenal rise of digital wallets, and the COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated their adoption globally. Such e-wallets provide not only a conduit to external bank accounts but also internal payment options, including the ever-popular Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL). We examine, for the first time, e-wallet transactions matched with merchant and consumer information from a world-leading provider based in China, with over 1 billion users globally and a business model that other e-wallet providers quickly converge to. We document that internal payment options, especially BNPL, dominate both online and on-site transactions. BNPL has greatly expanded credit access on the extensive margin through its adoption in two-sided payment markets. While BNPL crowds out other e-wallet payment options, it expands FinTech credit to underserved consumers. Exploiting a randomized experiment, we also find that e-wallet credit through BNPL substantially boosts consumer spending. Nevertheless, users, especially those relying on e-wallets as their sole credit source, carefully moderate borrowing when incurring interest charges. The insights likely prove informative for economies transitioning from cash-heavy to cashless societies where digital payments and FinTech credit see the largest growth and market potential

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31202
    Schlagworte: Kreditgeschäft; Verbraucherkredit; Elektronisches Geld; Konsumentenverhalten; Finanztechnologie; China; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; General; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors; Household Saving, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
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  14. Perceptions about monetary policy
    Autor*in: Bauer, Michael D.; Pflueger, Carolin E.; Sunderam, Adi
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg, Frankfurt am Main

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  15. The International Monetary System and International Financial System as an Analogy to the Copernican Heliocentric system
    A simple multi-layers network model with simultaneous regime changes
    Autor*in: Bordo, Michael D.; Bastidon, Cécile
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The evolution of the IMS and IFS in the past several hundred years can be viewed through the lens of the Copernican heliocentric system developed over 500 years ago. We trace out the evolution across regimes of the IMS and IFS in terms of network... mehr

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    The evolution of the IMS and IFS in the past several hundred years can be viewed through the lens of the Copernican heliocentric system developed over 500 years ago. We trace out the evolution across regimes of the IMS and IFS in terms of network representations of the Copernican system. We provide a simple, fully testable theoretical model whose assumptions are based on these representations. The IMS and IFS are described by a two-layer graph whose three key features (hub, core, distances) are affected by nonlinear joint regime changes linked to a technological, institutional, geopolitical and regulatory environment variable. We conclude with a discussion of some perspectives of the future of the international monetary and financial systems. Our analysis is based on economic history, theory and some resonant concepts from astrophysics

     
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  16. Strategic Money and Credit Ledgers
    Autor*in: Brunnermeier, Markus Konrad; Payne, Jonathan
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper studies strategic decision making by a private currency ledger operator, which faces competition from public money and/or other ledgers. A monopoly ledger operator can incentivize contract enforcement across the financial sector by... mehr

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    This paper studies strategic decision making by a private currency ledger operator, which faces competition from public money and/or other ledgers. A monopoly ledger operator can incentivize contract enforcement across the financial sector by threatening exclusion, but it can also impose markups through its pricing power. Currency competition limits rent extraction, but also makes coordinated contract enforcement more fragile. The emergent market structure bundles the provision of ledger and platform trading technologies. Regulation to ensure platform cooperation on contract enforcement and competition on markup setting is effective so long as agents can easily switch between platforms

     
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  17. "Zero Cost'' Majority Attacks on Permissionless Blockchains
    Autor*in: Gans, Joshua; Hałaburda, Hanna
    Erschienen: July 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Permissionless blockchains were constructed with a view to being sustainably secure. At the heart of blockchain consensus mechanisms was an explicit cost (whether it be work or stake) for participation in the network and the opportunity to propose... mehr

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    Permissionless blockchains were constructed with a view to being sustainably secure. At the heart of blockchain consensus mechanisms was an explicit cost (whether it be work or stake) for participation in the network and the opportunity to propose blocks that would be added to the blockchain. A key rationale for that cost was to make attacks on the network, which could be theoretically carried out if a majority of nodes were controlled by a single entity, too expensive to be worthwhile. Here we demonstrate that a majority attacker can successfully attack with a negative cost, which shows that explicit participation requirements do not necessarily result in a sustainably secure network. This suggests that any benefits of an attack that drive sustainable security are regulated from outside the network itself

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31473
    Schlagworte: Blockchain; Datensicherheit; Netzwerk; Monopoly; Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems
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  18. Who Invests in Crypto? Wealth, Financial Constraints, and Risk Attitudes
    Autor*in: Aiello, Darren; Baker, Scott; Balyuk, Tetyana; Di Maggio, Marco; Johnson, Mark J.; Kotter, Jason D.
    Erschienen: November 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We provide a first look into the drivers of household cryptocurrency investing. Analyzing consumer transaction data for millions of U.S. households, we find that, except for high income early adopters, cryptocurrency investors resemble the general... mehr

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    We provide a first look into the drivers of household cryptocurrency investing. Analyzing consumer transaction data for millions of U.S. households, we find that, except for high income early adopters, cryptocurrency investors resemble the general population. These investors span all income levels, with most dollars coming from high-income individuals, similar to equity investors. High past crypto returns and personal income shocks lead to increased cryptocurrency investments. Higher household-level inflation expectations also correlate with greater crypto investments, aligning with hedging motives. For most U.S. households, cryptocurrencies are treated like traditional assets

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31856
    Schlagworte: Virtuelle Währung; Privater Haushalt; Anlageverhalten; USA; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors; Household Saving, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
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  19. On Digital Currencies
    Autor*in: Uhlig, Harald
    Erschienen: February 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    I discuss private and central-bank-issued digital currencies, summarizing my prior research. I argue that prices of private digital currencies such as bitcoin follow random walks or, more generally, risk-adjusted martingales. For central bank digital... mehr

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    I discuss private and central-bank-issued digital currencies, summarizing my prior research. I argue that prices of private digital currencies such as bitcoin follow random walks or, more generally, risk-adjusted martingales. For central bank digital currencies, I argue that they enhance the "CBDC trilemma" facing a central bank: out of the three objectives, price stability, efficiency, and monetary trust, it can achieve at most two

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32159
    Schlagworte: Virtuelle Währung; Digitales Zentralbankgeld; Geldpolitik; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Monetary Policy; Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
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