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  1. Risk preferences and training investments
    Autor*in: Caliendo, Marco; Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Obst, Cosima; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: October 2020
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We analyze workers' risk preferences and training investments. Our conceptual framework differentiates between the investment risk and insurance mechanisms underpinning training decisions. Investment risk leads risk-averse workers to train less; they... mehr

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    We analyze workers' risk preferences and training investments. Our conceptual framework differentiates between the investment risk and insurance mechanisms underpinning training decisions. Investment risk leads risk-averse workers to train less; they undertake more training if it insures them against future losses. We use the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to demonstrate that risk affinity is associated with more training, implying that, on average, investment risks dominate the insurance benefits of training. Crucially, this relationship is evident only for general training; there is no relationship between risk attitudes and specific training. Thus, as expected, risk preferences matter more when skills are transferable - and workers have a vested interest in training outcomes - than when they are not. Finally, we provide evidence that the insurance benefits of training are concentrated among workers with uncertain employment relationships or limited access to public insurance schemes.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/227355
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13828
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The impact of sanctions for young welfare recipients on transitions to work and wages and on dropping out
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Uhlendorff, Arne; Wolff, Joachim
    Erschienen: 14 July 2020
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP15037
    Schlagworte: Junge Arbeitskräfte; Sozialleistungsempfänger; Arbeitsmarktintegration; Arbeitsuche; Sanktion; Lebensqualität; Westdeutsche Bundesländer
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Risk preferences and training investments
    Autor*in: Caliendo, Marco; Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Obst, Cosima; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), DIW Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    We analyze workers' risk preferences and training investments. Our conceptual framework differentiates between the investment risk and insurance mechanisms underpinning training decisions. Investment risk leads risk-averse workers to train less; they... mehr

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    We analyze workers' risk preferences and training investments. Our conceptual framework differentiates between the investment risk and insurance mechanisms underpinning training decisions. Investment risk leads risk-averse workers to train less; they undertake more training if it insures them against future losses. We use the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to demonstrate that risk affinity is associated with more training, implying that, on average, investment risks dominate the insurance benefits of training. Crucially, this relationship is evident only for general training; there is no relationship between risk attitudes and specific training. Thus, as expected, risk preferences matter more when skills are transferable { and workers have a vested interest in training outcomes { than when they are not. Finally, we provide evidence that the insurance benefits of training are concentrated among workers with uncertain employment relationships or limited access to public insurance schemes.

     
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    hdl: 10419/226813
    Schriftenreihe: SOEPpapers on multidisciplinary panel data research ; 1113 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Risk Preferences and Training Investments
    Autor*in: Caliendo, Marco; Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Obst, Cosima; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Universität Potsdam, Potsdam

    We analyze workers’ risk preferences and training investments. Our conceptual framework differentiates between the investment risk and insurance mechanisms underpinning training decisions. Investment risk leads risk-averse workers to train less; they... mehr

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    We analyze workers’ risk preferences and training investments. Our conceptual framework differentiates between the investment risk and insurance mechanisms underpinning training decisions. Investment risk leads risk-averse workers to train less; they undertake more training if it insures them against future losses. We use the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to demonstrate that risk affinity is associated with more training, implying that, on average, investment risks dominate the insurance benefits of training. Crucially, this relationship is evident only for general training; there is no relationship between risk attitudes and specific training. Thus, as expected, risk preferences matter more when skills are transferable – and workers have a vested interest in training outcomes – than when they are not. Finally, we provide evidence that the insurance benefits of training are concentrated among workers with uncertain employment relationships or limited access to public insurance schemes.

     
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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: November 4,2020
    Schriftenreihe: CEPA discussion papers ; No. 23
    Schlagworte: Human Capital Investment; Risk Preferences; Work-related Training
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (35 Seiten, 609 KB)
  5. Mandatory integration agreements for unemployed job seekers: a randomized controlled field experiment in Germany
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Hofmann, Barbara; Stephan, Gesine; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    In the German unemployment insurance system, Integration Agreements (IA) are mandatory contracts between the employment agency and the unemployed, jointly signed by the latter and the caseworker. IAs stipulate rights and obligations but are generally... mehr

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    In the German unemployment insurance system, Integration Agreements (IA) are mandatory contracts between the employment agency and the unemployed, jointly signed by the latter and the caseworker. IAs stipulate rights and obligations but are generally perceived as instruments to control search behavior. We designed and implemented a Randomized Controlled Trial involving thousands of newly unemployed workers, where we randomize the timing of the IA as well as the extent to which this timing is announced prior to the meeting. Randomization is at the individual level. We use administrative registers to observe outcomes. A theoretical analysis of anticipation of prior announcements provides suggestions to empirically detect this. The results show that IAs early in the spell have on average a small positive effect on entering employment within a year. When classifying individuals using an employability indicator, we find that this result is driven by individuals with adverse prospects. Among them, being assigned to an early IA increases the probability of re-employment within a year from 45% to 53%.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232778
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14026
    Schlagworte: unemployment; monitoring; job search; active labor market policy; nudge; anticipation; randomized controlled trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Mandatory integration agreements for unemployed job seekers: a randomized controlled field experiment in Germany
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Hofmann, Barbara; Stephan, Gesine; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  IFAU, Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy, Uppsala

    Integration Agreement (IA) are contracts between the employment agency and the unemployed, nudging the latter to comply with rules on search behavior. We designed and implemented an RCT involving thousands of newly unemployed workers, randomizing at... mehr

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    Integration Agreement (IA) are contracts between the employment agency and the unemployed, nudging the latter to comply with rules on search behavior. We designed and implemented an RCT involving thousands of newly unemployed workers, randomizing at the individual level both the timing of the IA and whether it is announced in advance. Administrative registers provide outcomes. Novel theoretical and methodological analyses provide tools to detect anticipation and suggest estimation by individual baseline employability. A small positive effect on entering employment is driven by individuals with adverse prospects. For them, early IA increase re-employment within a year from 45% to 53%.

     
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    hdl: 10419/246039
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy ; 2021, 4
    Schlagworte: unemployment; monitoring; job search; active labor market policy; nudge; anticipation; randomized controlled trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Managers' risk preferences and firm training investments
    Autor*in: Caliendo, Marco; Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Pfeifer, Harald; Uhlendorff, Arne; Wehner, Caroline
    Erschienen: January 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We provide the first estimates of the impact of managers' risk preferences on their training allocation decisions. Our conceptual framework links managers' risk preferences to firms' training decisions through the bonuses they expect to receive.... mehr

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    We provide the first estimates of the impact of managers' risk preferences on their training allocation decisions. Our conceptual framework links managers' risk preferences to firms' training decisions through the bonuses they expect to receive. Risk-averse managers are expected to select workers with low turnover risk and invest in specific rather than general training. Empirical evidence supporting these predictions is provided using a novel vignette study embedded in a nationally representative survey of firm managers. Risk-tolerant and risk-averse decision makers have significantly different training preferences. Risk aversion results in increased sensitivity to turnover risk. Managers who are risk-averse offer significantly less general training and, in some cases, are more reluctant to train workers with a history of job mobility. All managers, irrespective of their risk preferences, are sensitive to the investment risk associated with training, avoiding training that is more costly or targets those with less occupational expertise or nearing retirement. This suggests the risks of training are primarily due to the risk that trained workers will leave the firm (turnover risk) rather than the risk that the benefits of training do not outweigh the costs (investment risk).

     
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    hdl: 10419/250704
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15043
    Schlagworte: manager decisions; employee training; risk attitudes; human capital investments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Managers' risk preferences and firm training investments
    Autor*in: Caliendo, Marco; Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Pfeifer, Harald; Uhlendorff, Arne; Wehner, Caroline
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Universität Potsdam, Potsdam

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: February 15,2022
    Schriftenreihe: CEPA discussion papers ; No. 44
    Schlagworte: Manager Decisions; Employee Training; Risk Attitudes; Human Capital Investments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (45 Seiten, 728 KB), Illustrationen; Tabellen
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    Gesehen am 17.02.2022

    We provide the first estimates of the impact of managers’ risk preferences on their training allocation decisions. Our conceptual framework links managers’ risk preferences to firms’ training decisions through the bonuses they expect to receive. Risk-averse managers are expected to select workers with low turnover risk and invest in specific rather than general training. Empirical evidence supporting these predictions is provided using a novel vignette study embedded in a nationally representative survey of firm managers. Risk-tolerant and risk-averse decision makers have significantly different training preferences. Risk aversion results in increased sensitivity to turnover risk. Managers who are risk-averse offer significantly less general training and, in some cases, are more reluctant to train workers with a history of job mobility. All managers, irrespective of their risk preferences, are sensitive to the investment risk associated with training, avoiding training that is more costly or targets those with less occupational expertise or nearing retirement. This suggests the risks of training are primarily due to the risk that trained workers will leave the firm (turnover risk) rather than the risk that the benefits of training do not outweigh the costs (investment risk)
  9. Consumption choices and earnings expectations
    empirical evidence and structural estimation
    Autor*in: Stoltenberg, Christian; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    In this paper, we document that households’ consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete... mehr

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    In this paper, we document that households’ consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete markets model in which rational households possess private advance information on their future earnings. We find that households are better informed about their future earnings than an econometrician and that individual expectations are more relevant for the consumption choices of households in the left tail of the wealth distribution. Furthermore, households with advance information prefer less progressive earnings taxes.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263659
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15443
    Schlagworte: private information; household consumption; earnings dynamics; incomplete markets; subjective expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Consumption choices and earnings expectations
    empirical evidence and structural estimation
    Autor*in: Stoltenberg, Christian; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete... mehr

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    In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete markets model in which rational households possess private advance information on their future earnings. We find that households are better informed about their future earnings than an econometrician and that individual expectations are more relevant for the consumption choices of households in the left tail of the wealth distribution. Furthermore, households with advance information prefer less progressive earnings taxes.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263969
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2022, 049
    Schlagworte: Private information; household consumption; earnings dynamics; incomplete markets; subjective expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. The role of within-occupation task changes in wage development
    Autor*in: Bachmann, Ronald; Demir, Gökay; Green, Colin; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We examine how changes in task content over time condition occupational wage development. Using survey data from Germany, we document substantial heterogeneity in within-occupational changes in task content. Combining this evidence with... mehr

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    We examine how changes in task content over time condition occupational wage development. Using survey data from Germany, we document substantial heterogeneity in within-occupational changes in task content. Combining this evidence with administrative data on individual employment outcomes over a 25-year period, we find important heterogeneity in wage penalties amongst initially routine intensive jobs. While occupations that remain (relatively) routine intensive generate substantial wage penalties, occupations with a decreasing routine intensity experience stable or even increasing wages. These findings cannot be explained by composition or cohort effects.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267384
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15647
    Schlagworte: technological progress; polarization; tasks; routine workers; training
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Consumption choices and earnings expectations
    empirical evidence and structural estimation
    Autor*in: Stoltenberg, Christian; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, Palaiseau, France

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Center for Research in Economics and Statistics ; 2022, no. 15 (August 2022)
    Schlagworte: Private information; household consumption; earnings dynamics; incomplete markets; subjective expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Verträge zwischen Arbeitslosen und ihrem Jobcenter
    die Wirkung von Eingliederungsvereinbarungen im Rechtskreis SGB II
    Autor*in: Bernhard, Sarah; Stephan, Gesine; Uhlendorff, Arne; Berg, Gerard J. van den
    Erschienen: 5. Oktober 2022
    Verlag:  Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nürnberg

    In der Grundsicherung sollen die Jobcenter mit allen erwerbsfähigen Leistungsberechtigten eine Eingliederungsvereinbarung abschließen. Die Vereinbarung legt Rechte und Pflichten beider Vertragsparteien fest. Sie regelt insbesondere, welche Bemühungen... mehr

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    In der Grundsicherung sollen die Jobcenter mit allen erwerbsfähigen Leistungsberechtigten eine Eingliederungsvereinbarung abschließen. Die Vereinbarung legt Rechte und Pflichten beider Vertragsparteien fest. Sie regelt insbesondere, welche Bemühungen Arbeitsuchende in welcher Häufigkeit und mit welchen Nachweispflichten erbringen sollen und mit welchen Leistungen das Jobcenter sie unterstützt, damit sie ihren Lebensunterhalt künftig möglichst unabhängig vom Arbeitslosengeld-II-Bezug finanzieren können. Zudem ist die Eingliederungsvereinbarung eine Basis für mögliche Kürzungen des Arbeitslosengeldes II aufgrund sogenannter Pflichtverletzungen. Fraglich ist, inwieweit Eingliederungsvereinbarungen zur Integration von Arbeitssuchenden in den Arbeitsmarkt beitragen. In einem Modellprojekt wurde in sieben Jobcentern daher zufällig festgelegt, ob Arbeitslose in den ersten sechs Monaten des Bezugs von Arbeitslosengeld II a) eine übliche Eingliederungsvereinbarung mit Rechtsfolgenbelehrung, b) eine Eingliederungsvereinbarung ohne Rechtsfolgenbelehrung oder aber c) noch keine Eingliederungsvereinbarung erhalten sollten. Aufgrund der zufälligen Zuweisung unterscheidet sich die Zusammensetzung der drei Gruppen in Bezug auf relevante beobachtete Merkmale nicht. [...] In the German welfare system, the job centers are to conclude an integration agreement with all beneficiaries who are capable of working. The agreement defines the rights and obligations of both parties to the contract. In particular, it regulates what efforts jobseekers should make, how often they should make them, what obligations they have to provide proof of, and what services the job center will provide to support them in taking up employment. They also provide a basis for the implementation of sanctions for so-called breaches of duty. It is questionable to what extent integration agreements contribute to the integration of job seekers into the labor market. In a pilot project in seven job centers, it was therefore randomly determined whether people in the first six months of receiving unemployment benefit II should receive a) a standard integration agreement with legal consequences, b) an integration agreement without legal consequences, or c) no integration agreement at all. In the first six months, groups b) and c) should accordingly not receive any sanctions due to violations of obligations. Due to random assignment, the composition of the resulting three groups does not differ with respect to relevant observed characteristics. [...]

     
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    hdl: 10419/265567
    Schriftenreihe: IAB-Forschungsbericht ; 2022,16
    Schlagworte: Eingliederungsvereinbarung; Arbeitslosenversicherung; Arbeitsmarktchancen; Arbeitslose; Arbeitsuchende
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (22 Seiten), Diagramme
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    Text deutsch; Zusammenfassung in englischer und deutscher Sprache
  14. The role of within-occupation task changes in wage development
    Autor*in: Bachmann, Ronald; Demir, Gökay; Green, Colin; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, Palaiseau, France

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Center for Research in Economics and Statistics ; 2022, no. 20 (October 2022)
    Schlagworte: technological progress; polarization; tasks; routine workers; training
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. A structural analysis of vacancy referrals with imperfect monitoring and the strategic use of sickness absence
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Foerster, Hanno; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA

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    Schriftenreihe: Boston College working papers in economics ; 1042
    Schlagworte: unemployment; wage; unemployment insurance; monitoring; moral hazard; structuralestimation; counterfactual policy evaluation; unemployment duration
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Locus of control and the preference for agency
    Autor*in: Caliendo, Marco; Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Silva Goncalves, Juliana; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We conduct a laboratory experiment to study how locus of control operates through people's preferences and beliefs to influence their decisions. Using the principal-agent setting of the delegation game, we test four key channels that conceptually... mehr

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    We conduct a laboratory experiment to study how locus of control operates through people's preferences and beliefs to influence their decisions. Using the principal-agent setting of the delegation game, we test four key channels that conceptually link locus of control to decision-making: (i) preference for agency; (ii) optimism and (iii) confidence regarding the return to effort; and (iv) illusion of control. Knowing the return and cost of stated effort, principals either retain or delegate the right to make an investment decision that generates payoffs for themselves and their agents. Extending the game to the context in which the return to stated effort is unknown allows us to explicitly study the relationship between locus of control and beliefs about the return to effort. We find that internal locus of control is linked to the preference for agency, an effect that is driven by women. We find no evidence that locus of control influences optimism and confidence about the return to stated effort, or that it operates through an illusion of control.

     
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    hdl: 10419/272688
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16061
    Schlagworte: locus of control; preference for agency; decision-making; beliefs; optimism; confidence; illusion of control
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Managers' risk preferences and firm training investments
    Autor*in: Caliendo, Marco; Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Pfeifer, Harald; Uhlendorff, Arne; Wehner, Caroline
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Universität Potsdam, Potsdam

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: February 15,2022
    Schriftenreihe: CEPA discussion papers ; No. 44
    Schlagworte: Manager Decisions; Employee Training; Risk Attitudes; Human Capital Investments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (45 Seiten, 728 KB), Illustrationen; Tabellen
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    We provide the first estimates of the impact of managers’ risk preferences on their training allocation decisions. Our conceptual framework links managers’ risk preferences to firms’ training decisions through the bonuses they expect to receive. Risk-averse managers are expected to select workers with low turnover risk and invest in specific rather than general training. Empirical evidence supporting these predictions is provided using a novel vignette study embedded in a nationally representative survey of firm managers. Risk-tolerant and risk-averse decision makers have significantly different training preferences. Risk aversion results in increased sensitivity to turnover risk. Managers who are risk-averse offer significantly less general training and, in some cases, are more reluctant to train workers with a history of job mobility. All managers, irrespective of their risk preferences, are sensitive to the investment risk associated with training, avoiding training that is more costly or targets those with less occupational expertise or nearing retirement. This suggests the risks of training are primarily due to the risk that trained workers will leave the firm (turnover risk) rather than the risk that the benefits of training do not outweigh the costs (investment risk)
  18. Der Einfluss von Persönlichkeitseigenschaften und sozialen Ressourcen auf die Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer
    Autor*in: Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: 2003
    Verlag:  Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin

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  19. Der Einfluß von Persönlichkeitseigenschaften und sozialen Ressourcen auf die Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer
    Autor*in: Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: 2003
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

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    Sprache: Deutsch
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    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910 ; QV 202 ; QB 910 ; QV 202
    DDC Klassifikation: Sozialwissenschaften (300); Wirtschaft (330)
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionspapiere / German Institute for Economic Research ; 338
    Schlagworte: Arbeitslosigkeit; Verweildauer; Persönlichkeitspsychologie; Soziales Kapital; Schätzung; Theorie
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Arbeitslosigkeit; (stw)Dauer; (stw)Persönlichkeitspsychologie; (stw)Sozialkapital; (stw)Schätzung; (stw)Theorie; (stw)Deutschland; Arbeitslosigkeit (STW); Dauer (STW); Persönlichkeitspsychologie (STW); Social Capital (STW); Schätzung (STW); Theorie (STW); Deutschland (STW); Online-Publikation; Arbeitspapier; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur
    Umfang: 31 S., graph. Darst., 21 cm
  20. <<The>> role of within-occupation task changes in wage development
    Autor*in: Bachmann, Ronald; Demir, Gökay; Green, Colin; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen, Germany

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    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Düsseldorf
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    ISBN: 9783969731406
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; #975
    Schlagworte: Technological progress; polarization; tasks; routine workers; training
    Umfang: 41 Seiten, Diagramme
  21. Risk Preferences and Training Investments
    Autor*in: Caliendo, Marco; Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Obst, Cosima; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Universität Potsdam, Potsdam

    We analyze workers’ risk preferences and training investments. Our conceptual framework differentiates between the investment risk and insurance mechanisms underpinning training decisions. Investment risk leads risk-averse workers to train less; they... mehr

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    We analyze workers’ risk preferences and training investments. Our conceptual framework differentiates between the investment risk and insurance mechanisms underpinning training decisions. Investment risk leads risk-averse workers to train less; they undertake more training if it insures them against future losses. We use the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to demonstrate that risk affinity is associated with more training, implying that, on average, investment risks dominate the insurance benefits of training. Crucially, this relationship is evident only for general training; there is no relationship between risk attitudes and specific training. Thus, as expected, risk preferences matter more when skills are transferable – and workers have a vested interest in training outcomes – than when they are not. Finally, we provide evidence that the insurance benefits of training are concentrated among workers with uncertain employment relationships or limited access to public insurance schemes.

     
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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: November 4,2020
    Schriftenreihe: CEPA discussion papers ; No. 23
    Schlagworte: Human Capital Investment; Risk Preferences; Work-related Training
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (35 Seiten, 609 KB)
  22. Predicting re-employment
    machine learning versus assessments by unemployed workers and by their caseworkers
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Kunaschk, Max; Lang, Julia; Stephan, Gesine; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of... mehr

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    Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of RE6. Second, their caseworkers revealed whether they expected RE6. Third, random-forest machine learning methods are trained on administrative data on the full inflow, to predict individual RE6. We compare the predictive performance of these measures and consider whether combinations improve this performance. We show that self-reported and caseworker assessments sometimes contain information not captured by the machine learning algorithm.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16426
    Schlagworte: unemployment; expectations; prediction; random forest; unemployment insurance; information
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Structural empirical analysis of vacancy referrals with imperfect monitoring and the strategic use of sickness absence
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Foerster, Hanno; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper provides a structural analysis of the role of job vacancy referrals (VRs) by public employment agencies in the job search behavior of unemployed individuals, incorporating institutional features of the monitoring of search behavior by the... mehr

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    This paper provides a structural analysis of the role of job vacancy referrals (VRs) by public employment agencies in the job search behavior of unemployed individuals, incorporating institutional features of the monitoring of search behavior by the agencies. Notably, rejections of VRs may lead to sanctions (temporary benefits reductions) while workers may report sick to avoid those. We estimate models using German administrative data from social security records linked with caseworker recorded data on VRs, sick reporting and sanctions. The analysis highlights the influence of aspects of the health care system on unemployment durations. We estimate that for around 25% of unemployed workers, removing the channel that enables strategic sick reporting reduces the mean unemployment duration by 4 days.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16495
    Schlagworte: unemployment; wage; sanctions; moral hazard; sickness absence; physician; structural estimation; counterfactual policy evaluation; unemployment duration
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Predicting re-employment: machine learning versus assessments by unemployed workers and by their caseworkers
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Kunaschk, Max; Lang, Julia; Stephan, Gesine; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, Palaiseau, France

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Center for Research in Economics and Statistics ; 2023, no. 9 (August 2023)
    Schlagworte: unemployment; expectations; prediction; random forest; unemployment insurance; information
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Structural empirical analysis of vacancy referrals with imperfect monitoring and the strategic use of sickness absence
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Foerster, Hanno; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, Palaiseau, France

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Center for Research in Economics and Statistics ; 2023, no. 10 (September 2023)
    Schlagworte: unemployment; wage; sanctions; moral hazard; sickness absence; physician; structural estimation; counterfactual policy evaluation; unemployment duration
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen