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  1. Optimal carbon pricing in general equilibrium revisited
    damages, depreciation, and discounting
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The tractable general equilibrium model developed by Golosov et al. (2014), GHKT for short, is modified to allow for additional negative impacts of global warming on utility and productivity growth, mean reversion in the ratio of climate damages to... mehr

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    The tractable general equilibrium model developed by Golosov et al. (2014), GHKT for short, is modified to allow for additional negative impacts of global warming on utility and productivity growth, mean reversion in the ratio of climate damages to production, labour-augmenting technical progress, and population growth. We also replace the GHKT assumption of full depreciation of capital each decade by annual logarithmic depreciation. Furthermore, we allow the government to use a lower discount rate than the private sector. We derive a tractable rule for the optimal carbon price for each of these extensions which contain the GHKT model as a special case. Finally, the GHKT model is simplified by modelling temperature as cumulative emissions and calibrated to Burke et al. (2015) damages. We illustrate our analytical rules with a range of optimal policy simulations.

     
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    hdl: 10419/229600
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8782 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Gathering support for green tax reform
    evidence from German household surveys
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon; Tovar, Miguel
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Green tax reform is unpopular because, typically, the poor are hurt most by the higher prices of carbon-intensive commodities. If revenues from a carbon tax are recycled, it may be feasible to gain popular support for green tax reform. To investigate... mehr

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    Green tax reform is unpopular because, typically, the poor are hurt most by the higher prices of carbon-intensive commodities. If revenues from a carbon tax are recycled, it may be feasible to gain popular support for green tax reform. To investigate this, we estimate an EASI demand system from German household data and a labour supply schedule, using wage data, and the German income tax schedule and let emission intensities decline in the carbon tax. If the revenue from a carbon tax is recycled via a lump-sum transfer to all households, this gives more equitable albeit less efficient outcomes, yet 70% of households are worse off. If the revenue is recycled via lower income taxes, there is more efficiency at the expense of more inequality, and about half of households benefit. With a recycling mix of lump-sum transfers and lower income taxes, popular support can be mustered without hurting equity too much. We also investigate the effects of Germany meeting its legal target for curbing emissions by 55% in 2030 relative to 1990 levels. We find that most of emission reductions are due to producers responding by lowering emission intensities rather than by consumers to less carbon-intensive consumption categories.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248943
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9398 (2021)
    Schlagworte: popular support; carbon tax; revenue recycling; equity; EASI demand system; labour supply
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. No brainers and low-hanging fruit in national climate policy
    Beteiligt: Caselli, Francesco (HerausgeberIn); Ludwig, Alexander (HerausgeberIn); Ploeg, Frederick van der (HerausgeberIn)
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  CEPR Press, London, UK

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    Beteiligt: Caselli, Francesco (HerausgeberIn); Ludwig, Alexander (HerausgeberIn); Ploeg, Frederick van der (HerausgeberIn)
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781912179510
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Klimaschutz; Klimapolitik; Treibhausgas-Emissionen
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 254 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The economics of rhino poaching
    Autor*in: Dawes, Michael
    Erschienen: 2018

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    Beteiligt: Ploeg, Frederick van der (AkademischeR BetreuerIn); Adam, Christopher S. (AkademischeR BetreuerIn)
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
    Format: Online
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 186 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Includes bibliographical references

    Dissertation, University of Oxford, 2018
  5. Discounting and climate policy
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, OxCarre (Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies), Oxford

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    Schriftenreihe: OxCarre research paper ; 224
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Discounting and climate policy
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: July 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The social rate of discount is a crucial driver of the social cost of carbon (SCC), i.e. the expected present discounted value of marginal damages resulting from emitting one ton of carbon today. Policy makers should set carbon prices to the SCC... mehr

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    The social rate of discount is a crucial driver of the social cost of carbon (SCC), i.e. the expected present discounted value of marginal damages resulting from emitting one ton of carbon today. Policy makers should set carbon prices to the SCC using a carbon tax or a competitive permits market. The social discount rate is lower and the SCC higher if policy makers are more patient and if future generations are less affluent and policy makers care about intergenerational inequality. Uncertainty about the future rate of growth of the economy and emissions and the risk of macroeconomic disasters (tail risks) also depress the social discount rate and boost the SCC provided intergenerational inequality aversion is high. Various reasons (e.g. autocorrelation in the economic growth rate or the idea that a decreasing certainty-equivalent discount rate results from a discount rate with a distribution that is constant over time) are discussed for why the social discount rate is likely to decline over time. A declining social discount rate also emerges if account is taken from the relative price effects resulting from different growth rates for ecosystem services and of labour in efficiency units. The market-based asset pricing approach to carbon pricing is contrasted with a more ethical approach to policy making. Some suggestions for further research are offered.

     
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    hdl: 10419/223513
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8441 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten)
  7. Asset diversification versus climate action
    Autor*in: Hambel, Christoph; Kraft, Holger; Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: July
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Asset pricing and climate policy are analyzed in a global economy where consumption goods are produced by both a green and a carbon-intensive sector. We allow for endogenous growth and three types of damages from global warming. It is shown that,... mehr

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    Asset pricing and climate policy are analyzed in a global economy where consumption goods are produced by both a green and a carbon-intensive sector. We allow for endogenous growth and three types of damages from global warming. It is shown that, initially, the desire to diversify assets complements the attempt to mitigate economic damages from climate change. In the longer run, however, a trade-off between diversification and climate action emerges. We derive the optimal carbon price, the equilibrium risk-free rate, and risk premia. Climate disasters, which are more likely to occur sooner as temperature rises, significantly increase risk premia.

     
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    hdl: 10419/223548
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8476 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Do we still need carbonIntensive capital when transitioning to a green economy?
    Autor*in: Jin, Wei; Ploeg, Frederick van der; Zhang, Lin
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper presents a two-sector green endogenous growth model to explore a mechanism that explains why carbon-intensive capital is not necessarily shut down during transition to a green economy. Without accumulating clean capital to offset carbon... mehr

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    This paper presents a two-sector green endogenous growth model to explore a mechanism that explains why carbon-intensive capital is not necessarily shut down during transition to a green economy. Without accumulating clean capital to offset carbon emissions, a tightening of climate regulation leads to the running down of carbon-intensive capital. However, if climate regulations induce stepping-up of carbon-free capital to offset warming damages, the economic value of carbon-intensive capital can be protected and the running down of carbon-intensive assets can be mitigated. The use of carbon-intensive capital gives the economic means to enhance clean capital accumulation and sustain endogenous growth. Both carbon-intensive and carbon-free capital may thus be needed for an efficient transition to green growth.

     
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    hdl: 10419/229563
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8745 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Stranded assets in the transition to a carbon-free economy
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Assets in the fossil fuel industries are at risk of losing market value due to anticipated breakthroughs in renewable technology and governments stepping up climate policies in the light of the Paris commitments to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2... mehr

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    Assets in the fossil fuel industries are at risk of losing market value due to anticipated breakthroughs in renewable technology and governments stepping up climate policies in the light of the Paris commitments to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius. Stranded assets arise due to uncertainty about the future timing of these two types of events and substantial intertemporal and intersectoral investment adjustment costs. Stranding of assets mostly affects the 20 biggest oil, gas and coal companies who have been responsible for at least a third of global warming since 1965, but also carbon-intensive industries such as steel, aluminium, cement, plastics and greenhouse horticulture. A disorderly transition to the carbonfree economy will lead to stranded assets and legal claims. Institutional investors should be aware of these financial risks. A broader definition of stranded assets also includes countries reliant on fossil fuel exports and workers with technology-specific skills.

     
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    hdl: 10419/215027
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 8025 (December 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. On current and future carbon prices in a risky world
    Autor*in: Olijslagers, Stan; Ploeg, Frederick van der; Wijnbergen, Sweder van
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    We analyse optimal abatement and carbon pricing strategies under a variety of economic, temperature and damage risks. Economic growth, convex damages and temperature-dependent risks of climatic tipping points lead to higher growth rates, but gradual... mehr

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    We analyse optimal abatement and carbon pricing strategies under a variety of economic, temperature and damage risks. Economic growth, convex damages and temperature-dependent risks of climatic tipping points lead to higher growth rates, but gradual resolution of uncertainty lowers them. For temperature-dependent economic damage tipping points, carbon prices are higher, but when the tipping point occurs, the price jumps downward. With only a temperature cap the carbon price rises at the risk-adjusted interest rate. Adding damages leads to a higher carbon price that grows more slowly. But as temperature and cumulative emissions get closer to their caps, the carbon price is ramped up ever more. Policy makers should commit to a rising path of carbon prices.

     
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    hdl: 10419/237778
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2021, 045
    Schlagworte: CO2 prices; growth uncertainty; tipping points; damages; gradual resolution of damage uncertainty; temperature caps
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. The risk-adjusted carbon price
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Bremer, Ton van den
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    The social cost of carbon is the expected present value of damages from emitting one ton of carbon today. We use perturbation theory to derive an approximate tractable expression for this cost adjusted for climatic and economic risk. We allow for... mehr

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    The social cost of carbon is the expected present value of damages from emitting one ton of carbon today. We use perturbation theory to derive an approximate tractable expression for this cost adjusted for climatic and economic risk. We allow for different aversion to risk and intertemporal fluctuations, skewness and dynamics in the risk distributions of climate sensitivity and the damage ratio, and correlated shocks. We identify prudence, insurance, and exposure effects, reproduce earlier analytical results, and offer analytical insights into numerical results on the effects of economic and damage ratio uncertainty and convex damages on the optimal carbon price.

     
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    hdl: 10419/237779
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2021, 046
    Schlagworte: precaution; insurance; exposure; economic; precaution; insurance; exposure; economic, climatic and damage uncertainties; skewness; mean reversion; correlated risks; risk aversion; intergenerational inequality aversion; convex damages
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 91 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Oil discoveries and protectionism
    role of news effects
    Autor*in: Sebastian-Perez, Fidel; Raveh, Ohad; Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Can oil discovery shocks affect the demand for protectionism? An intertemporal model of Dutch disease indicates that if the tradable sector is politically dominant then an oil discovery can induce protectionism. If the economy is also credit... mehr

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    Can oil discovery shocks affect the demand for protectionism? An intertemporal model of Dutch disease indicates that if the tradable sector is politically dominant then an oil discovery can induce protectionism. If the economy is also credit constrained, this effect is intensified upon discovery, but partially reversed when oil revenues start to flow. We test these predictions using 16.2 million, HS-6 level, bilateral tariff rates that cover 5,718 products in 155 countries over the period 1988-2012, and data on worldwide discoveries of giant oil and gas fields. Our identification strategy rests on the exogeneity of the timing of discoveries. Our empirical results indicate that an oil discovery increases tariffs during pre-production years and decreases tariffs in the years to follow yet to a lesser extent, most notably in capital scarce economies with a relatively dominant tradable sector. Our baseline estimates indicate that a giant oil field discovery induces a rise of approximately 13% in the average tariff over the course of 10 years; this increase is approximately 2.5 times larger during the pre-production period when the oil discovery represents a pure news shock.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2021, 047
    Schlagworte: Oil discoveries; protectionism; capital scarcity; Dutch disease; political economy; trade policy; news shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Optimal carbon pricing in general equilibrium
    temperature caps and stranded assets in an extended annual DSGE model
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  University of Oxford, Department of Economics, OxCarre (Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies), Oxford

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    Schriftenreihe: OxCarre research paper ; 227
    Schlagworte: carbon price; tractable rule; general equilibrium; utility and growth damages; technical progress; population growth; logarithmic depreciation; differential discountrates; temperature cap; stranded oil and gas reserves
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. The risk of policy tipping and stranded carbon assets
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    If global warming is to stay below 2°C, there are four risks of assets stranding. First, substantial fossil fuel reserves will be stranded at the end of the fossil era. Second, this will be true for exploration capital too. Third, unanticipated... mehr

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    If global warming is to stay below 2°C, there are four risks of assets stranding. First, substantial fossil fuel reserves will be stranded at the end of the fossil era. Second, this will be true for exploration capital too. Third, unanticipated changes in present or expected future climate policy cause instantaneous discrete jumps in today's valuation of physical and natural capital. Fourth, if timing and intensity of climate policy are uncertain, revaluation of assets occurs as uncertainty about future climate policy is resolved. E.g. abandoning climate policy plans immediately boosts scarcity rent, market capitalization, exploration investment and discoveries. To explain and quantify these four effects, we use an analytical model of investment in exploration capital with intertemporal adjustment costs, depletion of reserves and market capitalization, and calibrate it to the global oil and gas industry. Climate policy implements a carbon budget commensurate with 2°C peak warming and we allow for different instruments: immediate or delayed carbon taxes and renewable subsidies. The social welfare ranking of these instruments is inverse to that of the oil and gas industry which prefers renewable subsidy and delaying taxes for as long as possible. We also pay attention to how the legislative "risk" of tipping into policy action affects the timing of the end of the fossil era, the profitability of existing capital, and green paradox effects.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/201995
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Revised July 2019
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7769 (July 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Gathering support for green tax reform
    evidence from German household surveys
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon; Tovar Reaños, Miguel Angel
    Erschienen: 18 January 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16931
    Schlagworte: Popular support; carbon tax; revenue recycling; equity; EASI demand system; LabourSupply
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. The social cost of carbon with intragenerational inequality under economic uncertainty
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Emmerling, Johannes; Groom, Benjamin
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    A formula is derived for the social cost of carbon (SCC) that takes account of intragenerational income inequality and its evolution with economic growth. The social discount rate (SDR) should be adjusted to account for intragenerational and... mehr

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    A formula is derived for the social cost of carbon (SCC) that takes account of intragenerational income inequality and its evolution with economic growth. The social discount rate (SDR) should be adjusted to account for intragenerational and intergenerational inequality aversion and for risk aversion. If growth increases (reduces) intra-generational inequality, the SDR is lower (higher) and the SCC higher (lower) than along an inequality-neutral growth path, especially if intra-generational and intergenerational inequality aversion are higher. The same qualitative result is shown for two welfare specifications, one with a representative agent with equally distributed equivalent (EDE) income and the other considers individuals separately across the income distribution. The latter specification causes an additional impact of income inequality on the SDR and SCC because individuals are compared both within and between time periods. Our preferred EDE calibration to a scenario in which global intragenerational inequality declines over time, leads to a SCC in 2020 of $70/tCO2 compared to a value of $85/tCO2 without the effect of inequality.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263707
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9777 (2022)
    Schlagworte: social discount rate; social cost of carbon; intra- and intergenerational inequality aversion; risk aversion; inequality; growth; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Self-enforcing climate coalitions for farsighted countries: integrated analysis of heterogeneous countries
    Autor*in: Vosooghi, Sareh; Arvaniti, Maria; Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford

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    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 971 (May 2022)
    Schlagworte: climate economics; international environmental agreements; coalition forma-tion; heterogeneous countries; integrated assessment models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten)
  18. The Discounting Premium Puzzle
    survey evidence from professional economists
    Autor*in: Gollier, Christian; Ploeg, Frederick van der; Zheng, Jiakun
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford

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    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 976 (June 2022)
    Schlagworte: Risk premium; project-specific discount rate; survey evidence
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  19. Radical climate policies
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Venables, Anthony
    Erschienen: 16 November 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17677
    Schlagworte: climate policy; peer effects; learning by doing; strategic complementarities; multiple equilibria; tipping points; networks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Commit to a credible path of rising CO2 prices
    Autor*in: Wijnbergen, Sweder van; Ploeg, Frederick van der; Olijslagers, Stan
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    CO2 pricing is essential for an efficient transition to the green economy. Despite Daniel, Litterman and Wagner (2019)' claim that CO2 prices should decline, CO2 prices should rise over time. First, damages from global warming are proportional to... mehr

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    CO2 pricing is essential for an efficient transition to the green economy. Despite Daniel, Litterman and Wagner (2019)' claim that CO2 prices should decline, CO2 prices should rise over time. First, damages from global warming are proportional to economic activity and this makes CO2 prices grow at the same rate as the economy. Second, even if uncertainty about the damage ratio is gradually resolved over time, this only slows down the price rise. Third, if CCS is allowed for, the optimal CO2 price will rise before it declines but this decline does not occur until more than two centuries ahead. Fourth, damages are likely to be a very convex function of temperature which with rising temperature implies that CO2 prices must grow faster than the economy. Fifth, internalizing the social benefits of learning by doing or a shift towards technical progress in renewable energy production requires a subsidy for renewable energy, not a temporary spike in CO2 prices. Having high CO2 prices upfront is an artefact of failing to separate out renewable energy subsidies from the carbon price. Finally, efficient intertemporal allocation of policy efforts implies that a temperature cap or cap on cumulative emissions requires that CO2 prices must rise at a rate equal to the risk-adjusted interest rate, typically higher than the economic growth rate. Summing up, CO2 prices must rise at a rate at least equal to the economic growth rate and at most to the risk-adjusted interest rate. They should not decline.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2020, 028
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  21. Commit to a credible path of rising co2 prices
    Autor*in: Wijnbergen, Sweder van; Ploeg, Frederick van der; Olijslager, Stan
    Erschienen: 22 May 2020
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP14795
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Stranded assets in the transition to a carbon-freeeconomy
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford

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    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 894 (November 2019)
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  23. Oil discoveries and protectionism
    Autor*in: Perez-Sebastian, Fidel; Raveh, Ohad; Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford

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    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 895 (December 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Are economists getting climate dynamics right and does it matter?
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon; Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon; Venmans, Frank
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford

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    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 900 (February 2020)
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  25. Asset pricing and decarbonization
    diversification versus climate action
    Autor*in: Hambel, Christoph; Kraft, Holger; Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford

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    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 901 (February 2020)
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